Dave Fires Up The Epstein Drive [Japan]

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Yeah, I can see your points, too. I just get nervous about burning bridges - remember my hesitation at Pizarro.

I think it WOULD be worthwhile to make it clear to Woden that you think your agreements are null and void. Something like "It was supposed to be an anti-Archduke alliance, now it's clearly not, so we're going our own ways." Whether or not it helps you THIS game, it'd definitely pay in future games not to be known as that guy who'll break his word for nothing. Your word is everything.

(DO take the gold though, may as well be hanged for a sheep as a lamb)

[oledavy]

Yeah, I can see your points, too. I just get nervous about burning bridges - remember my hesitation at Pizarro.

I think it WOULD be worthwhile to make it clear to Woden that you think your agreements are null and void. Something like "It was supposed to be an anti-Archduke alliance, now it's clearly not, so we're going our own ways." Whether or not it helps you THIS game, it'd definitely pay in future games not to be known as that guy who'll break his word for nothing. Your word is everything.

(DO take the gold though, may as well be hanged for a sheep as a lamb)

I'm nervous too, for what its worth. The decision occupied me for most of yesterday 

No though, I really appreciate your thoughts on the decision. I think the weakest aspect of my argument is that its predicated on: "Woden is going to screw me no matter what." It's entirely possible I've gotten in my own head on that score: "It might happen, therefore it WILL happen."

We shall see!

Candidly though, Woden allying with Archduke was just a breaking point for me. I definitely would not have betrayed him had he not betrayed me first. In my mind, this was entirely provoked. 

I have in mind a couple snarky posts I've considered writing when Woden realizes the extent of his betrayal: 

1.

My options were screw oledavy over or be out by T160.

2.

"You can only play both sides for so long before someone gets fed up."


I think I'm going to settle for a more neutral statement of fact though. As righteous as I would feel doing it, I don't want to piss him off further if I can help it. I also don't want to leave any room for the interpretation that I maliciously decided to backstab Woden simply for the fun of it. As far as I am concerned, this is him reaping what he sowed. So, I'm going to settle on this:

3. 

"You abrogated the basis of our partnership by allying with Archduke"


I don't really think I need to defend my honor as a player actually. Anyone playing or watching should see pretty clearly the sequence of events that led to this outcome. I imagine Singaboy might be a little gleeful at it actually. Plus at the end of the day, its a game. Any partnership only lasts as long as it helps both the parties win. I also don't think I will be playing any more diplo games. I prefer the civ end of things, the diplo is just exhausting and allows for really weird stuff like the grand bargain for Norway.

[oledavy]

No additional turn today, so time to start working out possibly my biggest decision for the rest of the game: how much do I want to sink into the defense of Germany? 

It seems fairly likely Archduke will resume war with Germany around t144. It or attacking me is his logical next step to try and close this thing out. However, attacking me is fraught with a lot of risk due to the distance and the homefield advantages I enjoy. Attacking Singaboy is much safer and has the added advantage of forcing me to choose whether to come to him or stay put. 

Now, if there were no human element, this decision would be relatively easy to make. Germany will get crushed eventually, but it will be a grind for Archduke. With that in mind, I almost certainly have time to finish off Spain, maybe take a few of his Norwegian holdings, then head east before the Germans are completely knocked out. Also, to be clear, him scoring a clean kill on Singaboy would be a disaster and make it significantly harder to stop his win. However, him occupying 4 German cities and then my navy arriving to stall out the conflict would be fine by me. 

Moreover, I would prefer to wait until I reach subs and attack Archduke with a possible tech advantage. I certainly don't want to arrive right when he gets subs. 

However, there are a number of other considerations that complicate this. The foremost among them being Singaboy. Singaboy seems absolutely despondent, I would be willing to speculate his morale was one of the defining factors in his loss in the last war. If he's hopeless and is attacked, there is a firm possibility he wastes the advantages he does have in his anguish and accelerates his own demise. Conversely, giving him tangible and meaningful aid should make him much more effective. This is not to say I trust him, I fully expect he begrudges me for fighting him early and arguing for his downfall in the diplo thread, but for the moment, our interests are aligned: he doesn't want to die, and I don't want him to die. 

Moreover, if I can get him over the hump, allow him to pump out some more military and fortify his cities, he can theoretically serve as a something of a counterweight to Woden and Archduke. His problem right now is not that he doesn't have population, cities, or production, or tech, but that he's screwed geopolitically with a superior foe right next door. The sea is just an all or nothing littoral. If you are just the slightest bit inferior in numbers to your opponent, it's over. There is nothing stopping them from ramping up and destroying your smaller force at a premium. 

With this in mind, given my near parity with Archduke, trying to have my cake and eat it by taking Spain AND taking on his fleet is foolhardy at worst, dangerous at best. It's one or the other. I can't wait for subs, because Archduke will have attacked by then, and Singaboy will lose it if he doesn't see something tangible happening. Moreover, my own subs will prioritize defending my home waters against an attack from Woden. 

If I push the machine of war to the max, I can get out 8 more frigates in the next half dozen turns or so, giving me 19 frigates, and 6 caravels/ironclads. Adding in the 3-4German ships, that should be enough to defeat Archduke, or at least will be favorable against up to about 18 British ships. Much will depend on what engage scenario plays out. I feel its reasonable to assume that in about 15 turns - the time it will take me to mobilize and deploy over there - Archduke will have about that number of ships. 

I have been mulling over buying a city from Singaboy, or trading cities, something to that effect. I just desperately need a city on that sea where I can heal my ships. However, I don't think there is anything we can work out that won't come off as really cheesy, and frankly I dislike that something like that is even an option thanks to diplo, so I'm ruling it out for now. More than likely, the better move will be to just take Midgard for myself and establish a base of operations that way. 

It occurs to me, Woden could do us a major solid by using his navy to block off coastal access to Singaboy's cities.....

I would perhaps do the same, but my DoF with Archduke runs out a mere turn or two after the German-British peace treaty, so little gained there. 

As an aside, this is how I'm going to avoid getting all my gold TR's pillaged - by running them to Archduke and getting them back to run overland domestically the moment we go to war. With Triangular Trade, I can make a decent if reduced GPT off them. 

Anyway, I digress. 

My fleet is going to be obsolete sooner than I would like, and will be next to worthless fighting MG's, it just makes sense to either spend it conquering shit in my local area or suppressing Archduke. My fleet could in theory do a lot of good for Germany even if I don't force a battle, as it will give Germany some breathing room if Archduke decides to defer and not engage. In the meantime, I would be able to take some of his eastern Norwegian holdings, or could just push all the way to his homeland to force him to fight - provided I think I can win anyway....

Then again, I think I could polish off Spain with a small flotilla of 3 frigates and 2 caravels.....Perhaps I could live dangerously.

There's also the very real issue that losing a bunch of ships and incurring the consequent WW could be extremely harmful to my economy. It's not like Archduke wouldn't be suffering too, but Woden wouldn't be.... 

No though, so the question is thus: 

"Are my chances of winning better served by conquering territory in my area, or sailing in force to Singaboy's aid (if I assume I can't do both)?"

If I sail to Singaboy's aid, my position is objectively worse off. I risk a fatal engagement if my calculations are wrong, and the additional territory I might pick up will be subpar compared to Spain. However, let's suppose I win a crushing victory and survive the battle with 4-8 ships. Suddenly, not only is Germany a real player again (yay, I guess?), but I can take the fight for a time to Archduke's homeland and really knock my biggest opponent down a peg. 

However, taking Spain and western Norway dramatically increases my chances to win. There are few unknowns here, I can do it with the forces I have. But, by the time I do it, there is a not insignificant chance my fleet will be largely obsolete and unable to fight Archduke's submarine enhanced fleet. All these frigates won't be wasted, but will be significantly less powerful, whereas now they could accomplish some significant good. There's also the chance that sitting back gives Archduke the time to reduce Singaboy at his leisure, and then combine with Woden to 2v1 me. He will not be in any position to do that if I take the fight to him and win. Finally, I can totally see Singaboy just folding like a deck of cards, inland cities or not, if I don't give him aid. He will accuse me of being self-centered, will rail against me in the diplo thread. Perhaps he even reaches and accord with Archduke and frees his hand to fight me. 

.....Or what if I go, Archduke and I kill each other off, then Archduke and Singaboy sign a DOF and the German's sail off into the sunset having used me to prevent their demise but now my enemies again....

GAH.


A lot to consider. 

Pardon how meandering this is @Chevalier, this is basically my stream of consciousness thoughts on a rather monumental choice. Realistically, this is the game-winning or losing decision. Do I sail to Germany's aid? Do I sit? Do I send it all? Do I live dangerously and try to continue to reduce Spain at the same time?

I'm really worried Singaboy just wants a meaningless gesture from me. He doesn't care if my fleet lives or dies, if I send it all or half, he just wants bodies on the firing line. As far as I am concerned, if I send something, it has to be able to win. If I send my entire fleet and lose, it won't be the worst thing ever (I'll have subs rolling off the lines before the British reach me), but it would be a major setback that would undo all the progress I've made. 

At least I have some time to mull over it.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

However, there are a number of other considerations that complicate this. The foremost among them being Singaboy. Singaboy seems absolutely despondent, I would be willing to speculate his morale was one of the defining factors in his loss in the last war. If he's hopeless and is attacked, there is a firm possibility he wastes the advantages he does have in his anguish and accelerates his own demise. Conversely, giving him tangible and meaningful aid should make him much more effective. This is not to say I trust him, I fully expect he begrudges me for fighting him early and arguing for his downfall in the diplo thread, but for the moment, our interests are aligned: he doesn't want to die, and I don't want him to die. 

Moreover, if I can get him over the hump, allow him to pump out some more military and fortify his cities, he can theoretically serve as a something of a counterweight to Woden and Archduke. His problem right now is not that he doesn't have population, cities, or production, or tech, but that he's screwed geopolitically with a superior foe right next door. The sea is just an all or nothing littoral. If you are just the slightest bit inferior in numbers to your opponent, it's over. There is nothing stopping them from ramping up and destroying your smaller force at a premium. 

So far I agree with all this. Do remember Singaboy's performance the second time Archduke came after him in PBEM2, though - far from being despondent over losing Frankfurt 2, he rallied at his capital and ultimately even pushed Archduke back - he was in at the kill. If his morale holds up, he's still a formidable opponent in his own territory, and his fleet, however small it may be, is not to be discounted. 

With this in mind, given my near parity with Archduke, trying to have my cake and eat it by taking Spain AND taking on his fleet is foolhardy at worst, dangerous at best. It's one or the other. I can't wait for subs, because Archduke will have attacked by then, and Singaboy will lose it if he doesn't see something tangible happening. Moreover, my own subs will prioritize defending my home waters against an attack from Woden. 

If I push the machine of war to the max, I can get out 8 more frigates in the next half dozen turns or so, giving me 19 frigates, and 6 caravels/ironclads. Adding in the 3-4German ships, that should be enough to defeat Archduke, or at least will be favorable against up to about 18 British ships. Much will depend on what engage scenario plays out. I feel its reasonable to assume that in about 15 turns - the time it will take me to mobilize and deploy over there - Archduke will have about that number of ships. 

Yep. Definitely can't split your forces - it's all one or all the other. You'd look real foolish if Archduke straggled to a victory while just a couple of more frigates would have made the difference. 

"Are my chances of winning better served by conquering territory in my area, or sailing in force to Singaboy's aid (if I assume I can't do both)?"

If I sail to Singaboy's aid, my position is objectively worse off. I risk a fatal engagement if my calculations are wrong, and the additional territory I might pick up will be subpar compared to Spain. However, let's suppose I win a crushing victory and survive the battle with 4-8 ships. Suddenly, not only is Germany a real player again (yay, I guess?), but I can take the fight for a time to Archduke's homeland and really knock my biggest opponent down a peg. 

However, taking Spain and western Norway dramatically increases my chances to win. There are few unknowns here, I can do it with the forces I have. But, by the time I do it, there is a not insignificant chance my fleet will be largely obsolete and unable to fight Archduke's submarine enhanced fleet. All these frigates won't be wasted, but will be significantly less powerful, whereas now they could accomplish some significant good. There's also the chance that sitting back gives Archduke the time to reduce Singaboy at his leisure, and then combine with Woden to 2v1 me. He will not be in any position to do that if I take the fight to him and win. Finally, I can totally see Singaboy just folding like a deck of cards, inland cities or not, if I don't give him aid. He will accuse me of being self-centered, will rail against me in the diplo thread. Perhaps he even reaches and accord with Archduke and frees his hand to fight me. 

.....Or what if I go, Archduke and I kill each other off, then Archduke and Singaboy sign a DOF and the German's sail off into the sunset having used me to prevent their demise but now my enemies again....

Here's how I view matters: 

Right now, your biggest obstacle to winning the game is Archduke's fleet. Your primary objective, therefore, ought to be finding it and destroying it. With the English fleet gone, you can do anything you like. You  can sail back and conquer Spain, or overrun it with fresh-built forces. You can conquer Norway. You could sail around Archduke's coasts and pillage as much as you can to knock him back. You can do any combination of these. 

But, it has to be done relatively quickly, because you'll need to redeploy to face Woden. 

In other words, I think sailing and winning makes you objectively better off, not worse. You don't gain much materially, true, but your strategic options open up. Conquering Spain and marginal Norwegian cities means little when Archduke adds that powerful German core to his empire - especially since you've still got to confront that fleet. Confronting the fleet, on the other hand, enables the other two moves. It'll put you in firm control of the game, and with land roughly equal to any other player (or greater, if you can add both Spain and part of Norway), you'll be in no danger of being outteched. With the VA, there's no danger of being outbuilt. Singaboy, Woden, and Archduke would all have to put aside their differences, Archduke and Singaboy would have to rebuild, and then they'd all have to coordinate to stop you (Jester, sorry for leaving you as an afterthought in this when you read this thread, but as it stands now your empire is behind in tech, small, and underdeveloped - you're basically a speed bump. :/). In other words, I think a victorious fleet engagement makes you the firm favorite to win the game. 

Plus, there's this to consider: At some point in this game, you'll need to confront Archduke's fleet if you want to win. Do you want to do it with German support, with England tied up trying to support a land campaign, or do you want to do it alone? Can't wait for a tech advantage - Archduke's science matches yours and he's going to be at subs soon after you. Waiting also lets him coordinate with Woden. It also forces you to continue to be reactive  - but breaking the back of the English puts you in the driver's seat for the first time since Germany sailed to Norway. You gotta go. 

I get that if you lose the decisive battle, that's it. Probably gg Archduke but maybe Woden will surprise us. But, well, if it weren't a gamble, there'd be no need to play. I think you've got no choice but to toss the dice here and see how they fall.

[oledavy]

Plus, there's this to consider: At some point in this game, you'll need to confront Archduke's fleet if you want to win. Do you want to do it with German support, with England tied up trying to support a land campaign, or do you want to do it alone? Can't wait for a tech advantage - Archduke's science matches yours and he's going to be at subs soon after you. Waiting also lets him coordinate with Woden. It also forces you to continue to be reactive  - but breaking the back of the English puts you in the driver's seat for the first time since Germany sailed to Norway. You gotta go. 

This is a very good point. 

Okay, I'm convinced. 

I will add eight more ships to the fleet, and we shall sail for Germany. 

[ebbitten]

Sorry for the long absence but I've finally caught up on the reading. I still remain a dedlurker so I'm going to try to give you some help. Some initial thoughts before I dive into my recommendation.

First, while production is definitely king in Civ6 it seems that people continually underestimate just how long it takes for that compounding advantage to pay off, we saw this with Woden in pbem2 and singaboy earlier this game where you just can't get units produced very quickly even if you have a large production advantage. There's no slavery or drafting either and gold rushing is prohibitively expensive.

Second, on a more political note, people tend to be very scared of the current leader, and they usually deduce the current leader from score and momentum of score. People also tend to seriously overestimate the current leader's chance of winning, I think this is mostly a consequence of playing single player and the results of pbem1 where things can snowball quickly. We saw this earlier this game when you were convinced singaboy had an 80%+ chance of winning. In reality other players coordinating and the relative slow speed of shifting tactics and strategies (long build times, slow unit movements) mean that leaders can be surprised and overwhelmed.

Finally in this particular instance I think you need to fight archduke sooner rather than later, singaboy having ground forces can put some amount of pressure on Norway and we may see WW stack up to be somewhat significant for him while it's spread across you two. It also helps to lower archduke down a bit which should help to keep singa and woden to both perceive their chances of victory as being higher and therefore keep them more engaged.


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[oledavy]

Turn 137

In non war-related news, a long-term project came to fruition this turn. 





The Jovian megacity is complete! 

Currently, this collection of 9 districts is earning the following. Adjacency bonuses alone, Mohenjo Daro's bonus, Natural Philosophy and Meritocracy are not included in this count. 

Science: 20 
Culture: 7 
Hammers: 4
Faith: 9
Gold: 6

If you add in the left out factors, add in 

Culture: 13
Science: 14

This is the powerhouse of my empire, everything stems from it. 

In the south, I added Hong Kong to the imperial fold. 



12 cities now to Archduke's 16 (although one of mine is occupied). I added up pops before I left this morning, he still is about 25 pop ahead of me. ~65 to ~90. 

Bad news near Triton though. 



Not only is CFCJesterfool now upgrading knights, but my missionary failed to make Mormonism the majority religion in Triton. I thought having two pop following it there would be enough to do it. 

This means my swords don't get DoTF, and will get steamrolled by knights. 

I am hoping, however, that he brings his knight in to attack one of my exposed swords, allowing me to hit it with frigates next turn. 

Abroad, Archduke finished a GM project to nab a very helpful GM 



Germany settled both of their cities. 





You can see in the above frame where the final battle will likely take place if I need to go after Archduke. Fighting around a narrow strait could have some interesting implications for a battle with the British navy. 

Also, Singaboy has 6 ships, more than I thought. He could actually be a substantial presence. 

Anyway, the penny has now dropped for Woden in diplo. He has actually not accurately reported my fleet size, overestimating it by 1 and getting the numbers of ships wrong. He also apparently doesn't realize that Archduke and I have a DoF until t145/t146, so I have some time.

[oledavy]

If you want to revisit my offer for Jerusalem and accept it, I am very open to that. However, I really need the money now if that is the case. With this in mind, please either consider accepting my current loan offer, or declining it and on your turn offering me 480 gold for Jerusalem.

Jerusalem, was there not an offer somewhere about it to Woden?

Yes, there was but I think oledavy thinks he is in a good enough position to win that he can screw me over for a subpart island city and 3 turns of gold.

@TheArchduke,
I think it is in your best interest to sail your fleet west. Most of Japan's fleet in around Hong Kong or just west of Hong Kong. Japan's fleet is roughly 9 Frigates and 9 Caravels. and some are injured from attacking Spain. Right now, you are about par in fleet size and you have the advantage of 2 GAs and should be able to wipe out his fleet. Not sure how long that will last.

If you wipe out his fleet, his empire is open to you. He only has 2 cities with any walls and all but 1 is on a coast. I do have a ship move towards his fleet location so you can have visibility. If you need map information, let me know and I can send a ship around his territory to give you visibility.

Oh god yes. PLEASE, Woden, I am begging you, send him to me. 

If he fights me on my home turf, right about the time I'm about to start deploying submarines, I feel a lot more confident about the outcome - even if Singaboy bails and doesn't end up helping me.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Yeah, Archduke attacking you in home waters would be the best possible outcome, I think.

My biggest fear is Archduke realizing time is mostly on his side, and sitting back and waiting until he and Woden can hit you from two directions. I've been chewing over contingencies in that case, and I'm not sure there's better options than trying to bring Singaboy in against one or both, and trying to persuade Woden not to hand Archduke the game. Keeping a bunch of ships prebuilt, ready to surprise Archduke (who'll be confidently relying on Woden's intel) might be a good ploy to draw him in.

[oledavy]

I want to propose a continuing alliance with you until we are the last two in the game.

@Singaboy

Doesn't seem to be a whole lot of room for you in that alliance. 

I feel like you're in the same situation you were towards the end of PBEM2 with me actually. If you'll have units that can beat subs and MG's in a 2v1 when that NAP runs out, I encourage you to sign it and do so. If not, I at least hope you try to extract some cities from Archduke for the NAP, like I was willing to offer to you in PBEM2. Additionally, I would insist on a DoF. 

Alternatively, you can fight with me now while your navy and army are still relevant to secure your homeland for the long-term. Zitronheim and Kiel will probably be lost initially, but should we prove victorious, you will be able to reclaim those cities and more. Additionally, It will bring the game to a swifter conclusion. 

I know you probably have been wondering if I actually intend to follow through on my rhetoric to defend your homeland. There has been a spirited debate going on in my thread since you first asked for help, exploring options ranging from ignoring you completely, sending some of my ships to help and using the rest to take down Spain, to sending everything to aid in your defense. The debate was concluded this morning. Here is the relevant post. 

[Redacted]

This is a very good point. 

Okay, I'm convinced. 

I will add [redacted] more ships to the fleet, and we shall sail for Germany. 

   

I'm all in on defending Germany. 

My ded-lurkers can additionally confirm this if you need assurance this is not a false flag. 

You can already see tangible signs of the decision in game by the movements of the Jerusalem fleet this turn. My choice was to move east to begin prepping to support you, or moving south and committing to taking out Spain as fast as possible. I chose the former.

Alright, that should give Singaboy something tangible to grasp on to and shore him up as an ally. His fleet could be very crucial in swinging the final battle. While I don't have to worry about him switching sides and putting me into a 4v1 immediately due to our DoF, I would rather fight with his forces than with them waiting on the sidelines. 

So yeah, we're going to rally the fleet to protect Singaboy, and eliminate Archduke, and then assemble a fleet of submarines to face down Woden, if he hasn't changed sides again by then.