Dave Fires Up The Epstein Drive [Japan]

[oledavy]

Does anyone know what you get when you harvest sheep?

Wood?



 


Catan/Scotsman joke there.

By the way, my wife and I just started The Expanse last week; we're halfway through season two now, so yep, we'll be reading them. Good theme is good, mate. Expanse is nice hard-ish SciFi, about as hard as you can get without going full Peter Watts-level bleak (read Blindsight ever?)

Never even heard of it I'm afraid. I'm feeling like getting back on my summer sci-fi kick this winter break though, so I will check it out. I still need to actually finish the Expanse book and TV series.... 

By the way, my wife and I just started The Expanse last week; we're halfway through season two now, so yep, we'll be reading them. Good theme is good, mate. Expanse is nice hard-ish SciFi, about as hard as you can get without going full Peter Watts-level bleak (read Blindsight ever?)

I too started watching and reading the Expanse after I read back through your thread Davey, and then I got my friends hooked on the show as well. I guess we all have you to thank for introducing us to it!

Glad you got into it! If you enjoy it, you should also check out Remembrance of Earth's Past/The Three Body Problem. Read it also this last summer and completely blew my mind. Good luck in your second PBEM btw! 

Anyway, three turns have passed, nothing terribly earth shattering has occurred. I've mostly been slowly mulling over how I'm going to deal with the "Archduke refuses battle" scenario, which looks extremely likely at this point. 

Turns 140-142



Recruited Mendeleev. Sitting on him until I get the Enlightenment and knock out all the easy Eurekas. I finished a Niter Mine northwest of Callisto this last turn. 

Took Cordoba and renamed it Nereid. 



CFCJesterfool is down to three cities, but with at least a couple knights and crossbows running around, the last few promise to be a little harder. 

I offered the Spanish a peace treaty on the off chance he would be dumb enough to accept. 



He did not. Damn, not that he's a major threat, but it would have been nice to extort some resources out of him while I'm sidetracked with England. 

He did leave some units around the city though, so I could get to 15 XP on another frigate. 



I strongly considered sending a significant force west to attack Archduke's capital and force him to divide his ships, but his movements suggested he might not defend the bottleneck. I foolishly decided to base my movements on this, and moved absolutely everything east to force a climatic battle. Then this last turn, he deployed. 



That's actually a sub-par deployment. I could possibly force him to grind me ships 1 for 1 for awhile if he seeks to maintain that formation, something that would favor my numbers, but favor his ability to play for time and subs. 

This does work both ways though. By just sitting on the defense, and not coming south of the channel, Archduke gives up one of his greatest advantages, his killer first strike. I suspect he may have ironclads before the battle is joined, but he has not added any ships to this fleet over the last bunch of turns, meaning he is been slow to deploy reinforcements and begin a new naval building programme, or he's hiding ships. The latter is not impossible, but I suspect the former. 

Archduke could still change his mind and deploy south, but I doubt it at this point. The only thing that could unseat him is a substantial land force, which is not coming. 

This is not without it's advantages though. I can set up my own kill box south of the strait and destroy his ships at a premium. Moreover, if he moves substantial elements east to attack Kiel and Zitronheim, I can brute force my way through the channel. Singaboy also has 6 ships in the region I can use to augment my numbers. Finally, realistically, I might just need to hold him until I have subs, and then brute force my way through with them. I suspect I will get them just a little bit before him at the current rate. 

So this last turn, I changed course and opted for a cake and eat it option. 

My fleet is being divided into 3 commands. 

Task Force #1: Charged with eliminating the Spanish
Composition: 4 Frigates, 1 Ironclad

Task Force #2: Charged with reducing Archduke's western Norway holdings
Composition: 4 Frigates, 1 Ironclad

Take Force #3: Charged with counterbalancing his fleet. Additionally, this fleet will be charged with taking Midgard to establish a forward base of operations
Composition: 11 Frigates, 4 Ironclads (including every single promoted ship in my fleet. Additionally, I will be supported by 3 frigates and 3 caravels of the German navy. 

For reference, Archduke currently has: 6 frigates, 1 frigate fleet, and 3 caravels visible. Even assuming a few reinforcements, the German and Japanese navies should easily be able to hold this force at bay through the channel, and push through should he choose to attack east Germany. 

Finally:

Task Force #4: Charged with defending against Woden or punching through Archduke
Composition: 8 Submarines (ETA, 7 Turns Out, all will be finished as privateers and upgraded. In this regard, I can move them towards Midgard and upgrade them there for a minimal delay). 

I can't brute force Archduke and a fleet move west would probably take too long to arrive, but I can run wild and acquire up to seven more cities (and eliminate Spain), while Archduke's fleet is bottled up and impotent. Moreover, keeping Archduke's fleet pinned against his homeland, with my current forces and then with some of my subs, prevents him from combining with Woden. All the while, I'll be increasing my economic base and reducing Archduke's. Without the ability to force Archduke into a final decisive battle, containment and slow accumulation of additional advantages seems to be my best bet. As long as I keep my naval production and economy going, possessing enough fleet at a given time to fight both him and Woden should things come to that, I'll be fine. 

No though, this option is more viable now than it was when I first looked at it a few turns ago because Archduke has chosen not to offer battle, and seems dead set on defending. He has also not reinforced his fleet at the rate I feared he would. This is going to free up the ten ships I need to continue grinding through Spain and Norway, all the while maintaining my commitment to the Germans and limiting Archduke's further expansion. It's a lot less satisfying than an all out brawl would have been, but it probably is the smarter move. 

The challenge then becomes to have enough subs to beat Woden's Minaes Geraeses and Archduke's subs, but if I can prevent them from combining, the threat they pose is significantly lessened. 

All this goes out the window of course, if Archduke advances, but for now, I think my allocation of forces looks promising for my order of battle. There is a chance Singaboy gets upset that I'm not sending all my fleet to help him, but looking at things, he has to realize the tactical situation doesn't favor an all out attack. 

The government I adopted for ironclad upgrades:



I queued up Naval Tradition for an immediate switch back. This allowed me to turn my 2 envoys into 3, and next turn I'll switch back into Trade Confederation for a greater GPT. almost all my trade routes are now running to Libson. I've harvested 3 crabs so far, with a couple more to go. I had plenty around to upgrade my caravels, but I need so much more to upgrade subs and muskets. With this in mind, while I'm not cash strapped at present, I really didn't want to send any to Singaboy. 

As stated before though, it's not about actual support as it is about symbolic support, more often than not with human players, so I sent him 200. 



I don't know what he really needs it for, he has plenty of gold - maybe to buy a frigate? At any rate, I can afford to be generous at this moment and if it makes him more loyal, its a small price to pay. 

He did ally with Spain though.....



Not that Spain really matters anymore. I'll keep any eye on it. 

I have my 10th and final trader for the time being completing in the former city of Hong Kong. With nothing super pressing to build, I decided to go ahead and do a vanity build. 



I not sure it's actually better than building a crossbow, one of the two I need for a Eureka, but at this point, the HG is super cheap. 90 hammers is pretty economical price to pay for each housing, it will make a neighborhood west of it better, and the growth will be a nice bonus for all the Spanish cities. Maybe not the best move, but the city is landlocked and there is nothing super pressing for it to build. 

Don't mistake me for not being focused on the war though, basically every coastal city is building an ironclad or privateer. 

Anyway, I'll give some more shots of my core and fleet movements this next turn. Singaboy's time is almost up, although it seems Archduke doesn't want to initiate things. We'll see if he changes his mind when Woden tells him I am moving some fleet elements in other directions. 

Note to self: Make sure Archduke can't surprise me from the west.

[oledavy]

Turn 143

I finished my 24th and 25th ships this turn. My fleet is massive, and costs a fortune to maintain. And......it may be stymied in its attack by an annoying layout of land....



Archduke looks like he's staging to attack Zintronheim and Kiel, leaving a holding force on the channel. I got cold feet at this and shifted over 1 more frigate, bringing the total composition of Task Force #3 to 12 frigates and 4 ironclads. Singaboy has 7 vessels. And ranged against us are 10 British ships or fleets. If it weren't for that strait, we could just steamroll him. Because its there, we're going to have to exercise a lot of caution. 

Naval Tradition in. 



As an aside, I think Archduke is running the Harbor adjacency civic, and that's why his GPT is so high. I went ahead and swapped civics again. 



Libson is basically driving my economy at this point. 



I opted for Trade Confederation over Consciption, at least for now. I cannot afford to leave myself high and dry on gold production though, considering how vulnerable it would leave me. Protecting these TRs will be priority number one when the war with Woden begins.

Here is Task Force #3 sailing into action. 



Here are the other two task forces mobilizing for their respective tasks. 



Basically all my cities are building Privateers now. Four complete next turn. 



My military power now far surpasses Archduke. I don't think he has been adding ships to his fleet in the interim. It is for that reason that there is hope that I might be able to punch through and overpower him despite the unfavorable terrain. 



However, at this point the game I'm playing is: Wait and see how long it takes Archduke to get pissed off at Woden for being a shitty ally. 







Soon my pretties. Soon. 

Big problem coming up soon though: 



The next GA is another Industrial one. If Archduke gets it, his ships can get +15 Strength!  

I need to consider very carefully how I might prevent this. If his navy is still intact and he lands it, it's going to be a big problem. But....if I destroy his fleet before he can land it  (+17 turns), then it won't matter. 

I may just push my entire fleet through, or at least as much as possible, while we're still at peace, and just let a general melee ensure on t146.

[oledavy]

Actually, the more I think about it, the less the strait matters. If I have until t147, I can slip a lot of my fleet past his, and just engage in a general melee on t147. This does mean we need to be able to survive a first strike again. I may be making a final re-allocation of a couple of my ships, probably the ironclad and frigate headed north as part of Task Force #2. 

It would be a a bloodbath, but I'm pretty sure we would come out on top 

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Oh, my, so much to go through! I love the pictures of the battlefield, nice to get a good look at the area.

Off the top of my head, two things occur:

1)Callisto is landlocked, but how large is your army? Lotta inland cities to conquer and hold, and the English have spawned a whole free army in Norway.

2)Contingency plans for gold generation if Woden captures Lisbon? Does he realize how much GPT its generating you, or could he be equally dependent on it for his own economy?

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Thought it over on the drive to work.

I don't think there's anything I'd do differently. A bloodbath favors the OIA, since you can replace losses far more easily than Archduke can (and besides, the casualties will ease your straining economy - no pensions for widows keeps costs down!), and the sooner you can force a decisive battle, the better (my Mahanite roots are showing <_<). I bet Singaboy is drooling to pay back Archduke what he's owed for the sack of German cities, too, so once you can break through you can let the German fleet go nuts if the OIA fleet was needed to confront Woden.

How large is Woden's navy? I saw three Quads in that screenshot above, but no melee units. He knows exactly how large you and Archduke's fleets are, so he ought to be frantically building to upgrade into MGs as soon as he hits nationalism. Any sign of that? I'm kind of surprised he hasn't upgraded those Quads into Frigates, unless I misunderstand how the Brazilian upgrade path works.

In any case, I'm starting to feel confident. The numbers and ETA of subs look good - should be quite a deterrent force against Woden. I'd also love to see Spain stamped out, and if you already have units detailed to it, I think at this point (with the war due in 2 or 3 turns at most) it's wisest to carry through on that campaign. Trying to shuffle the units back to the main front might see them arrive too late, and the battle either already won, or already lost and they get blown to smithereens too. Best just to press on and finish Philip off. Finally, I'm pleasantly surprised by the relative weakness of England's navy. I mean, it's formidable, sure, but I expected him to churn out a lot more in the time he had.

If Archduke DOES fold as easily as Singaboy did once attacked, I'm going to have to revisit some of my assumptions I make as I judge relative power. Maybe naval units are just too favorable to the offense, maybe the Norwegian cities are basically useless (or at least not able to contribute to their own defense, making them a deadweight), maybe they didn't optimize their own home islands as well. I dunno. Nothing's settled yet, but I feel like you have a very good chance compared to where things stood before the pause.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Does anyone know what you get when you harvest sheep?

Wood?



 


Catan/Scotsman joke there.

By the way, my wife and I just started The Expanse last week; we're halfway through season two now, so yep, we'll be reading them. Good theme is good, mate. Expanse is nice hard-ish SciFi, about as hard as you can get without going full Peter Watts-level bleak (read Blindsight ever?)

Never even heard of it I'm afraid. I'm feeling like getting back on my summer sci-fi kick this winter break though, so I will check it out. I still need to actually finish the Expanse book and TV series.... 

It's not as bad as I make it sound. It's a Rendezvous with Rama-esque alien artifact story, but Watts does a great job creating a truly alien society in the future Earth. The artifact itself is suitably unsettling, his aliens are creative, and he does have a lot of really interesting things to say about intelligence and consciousness. I just get turned off from it because in my opinion it does quite preachy with his own opinions on those things. But it's worth a read - one of those books that has so many good ideas in it that /everyone/ needs to read it just because of how it's embedded in culture.

EDIT: just realized this was a triple post. Mild apologies for that.

[oledavy]

Oh, my, so much to go through! I love the pictures of the battlefield, nice to get a good look at the area.

Off the top of my head, two things occur:

1)Callisto is landlocked, but how large is your army? Lotta inland cities to conquer and hold, and the English have spawned a whole free army in Norway.

2)Contingency plans for gold generation if Woden captures Lisbon? Does he realize how much GPT its generating you, or could he be equally dependent on it for his own economy?

I am not terribly worried about having to build a substantial army this game realistically speaking. If I win, it's going to be through forcing a concession through controlling the sea. If my subs dominate the waves, there is really no way Woden or Archduke could win, even if every single one of their cities was inland. 

I'm planning on burning whatever I take from Archduke (Getting ahead of myself here, his fleet still lives). This is a campaign to eliminate him from contention, not expand my holdings. Plus, it will demoralize him more. 

Woden won't take Lisbon, he is their suzerain and has 7 envoys in the city. Moreover, if he declares war on me, all the TRs will come back and I can run them domestically. So, I have 16 more turns of all the gold before my economy starts feeling a crunch. By then, I'll have some additional measures in place (like Church Property). 

Salguerio was a slightly better city to run TR's to btw, but it ran them a little too close to Archduke for comfort. Archduke may still try to raid my TR's but it will be difficult, and I should be able to see it coming and stop him. 

Thought it over on the drive to work. 

I don't think there's anything I'd do differently. A bloodbath favors the OIA, since you can replace losses far more easily than Archduke can (and besides, the casualties will ease your straining economy - no pensions for widows keeps costs down!), and the sooner you can force a decisive battle, the better (my Mahanite roots are showing <_<). I bet Singaboy is drooling to pay back Archduke what he's owed for the sack of German cities, too, so once you can break through you can let the German fleet go nuts if the OIA fleet was needed to confront Woden. 

How large is Woden's navy? I saw three Quads in that screenshot above, but no melee units. He knows exactly how large you and Archduke's fleets are, so he ought to be frantically building to upgrade into MGs as soon as he hits nationalism. Any sign of that? I'm kind of surprised he hasn't upgraded those Quads into Frigates, unless I misunderstand how the Brazilian upgrade path works. 

In any case, I'm starting to feel confident. The numbers and ETA of subs look good - should be quite a deterrent force against Woden. I'd also love to see Spain stamped out, and if you already have units detailed to it, I think at this point (with the war due in 2 or 3 turns at most) it's wisest to carry through on that campaign. Trying to shuffle the units back to the main front might see them arrive too late, and the battle either already won, or already lost and they get blown to smithereens too. Best just to press on and finish Philip off. Finally, I'm pleasantly surprised by the relative weakness of England's navy. I mean, it's formidable, sure, but I expected him to churn out a lot more in the time he had. 

If Archduke DOES fold as easily as Singaboy did once attacked, I'm going to have to revisit some of my assumptions I make as I judge relative power. Maybe naval units are just too favorable to the offense, maybe the Norwegian cities are basically useless (or at least not able to contribute to their own defense, making them a deadweight), maybe they didn't optimize their own home islands as well. I dunno. Nothing's settled yet, but I feel like you have a very good chance compared to where things stood before the pause.

There is a picture of all of Woden's fleets in my next report. Not big though. 2 frigates, 2 caravels, and some assorted Quadriemes and Galleys iirc. 

I'm feeling more and more comfortable about this battle too...but I'm trying to stop myself from becoming overconfident. Still, things look good. I'm not counting on Archduke folding like a deck of cards though. I expect it will be a scrappy battle that we'll win with a few ships, allowing me and Singaboy to slowly start razing coastal cities before subs show up and put a stop to us. Hopefully Archduke will be effectively out of the running by then though. 

I give myself about 60% chances to win from this position. Still some doubt, but VA is really pulling its weight and has allowed me to be very competitive in the late game despite Englands advantages. 

They still haven't used Darwin though, so I'm remaining wary.

[oledavy]

And no need to apologize for triple posting. Look, I'm about to do it too.

[Mardoc]

And no need to apologize for triple posting. Look, I'm about to do it too.

Nope!

Edit: Also, a minor request. Any chance I can get you to spell the city as Lisbon? You're pretty consistently using Libson and it's a little distracting in otherwise excellent reports

[oledavy]

And no need to apologize for triple posting. Look, I'm about to do it too.

Nope!

Edit:  Also, a minor request.  Any chance I can get you to spell the city as Lisbon?  You're pretty consistently using Libson and it's a little distracting in otherwise excellent reports

Oh god, I didn't realize I was doing that 

I'm mildly tempted to go back and change them all now. 

At any rate, I will make sure to spell it correctly from here on out.