Dave Fires Up The Epstein Drive [Japan]

[yuris125]

I find it funny how every now and then we have a game with some kind of diplo, and all it does is remind everyone why we moved away from diplo in every other game. This one would've been so much more enjoyable to lurk without one....

Very well played so far, good luck!

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

After all those turns ripped out around the Battle of Bahia Bay, it feels like the game has slowed to a crawl now.

[oledavy]

After all those turns ripped out around the Battle of Bahia Bay, it feels like the game has slowed to a crawl now.

Yep! But we're back up and running now (hopefully...)

Turn 170

So, it seems the game won't end in a concession. On the one hand, I'm glad I get a chance to more convincingly win this thing. On the other, now there is the possibility I screw up 

I need to be very careful not to choke at the last minute, Archduke is still a formidable player, and Woden has nothing left to play for except screwing me over. It wouldn't take much for me to throw this thing (and they're both taking proactive steps to see that I do), so, caution is my watchword for now. 

On the plus side, with Ballistics finished, I am now 9 turns from Steel. 



Managed to shave another turn off its completion date. The plan basically is thus: Cautiously move forward with my fleet to take Beija-Flor, use my submarines to harvest gold for me, and clear out any targets that present themselves. When I hit steel, upgrade all my frigates (and combined with my GA), go hell to leather to burn Salgueiro and take Bohemian Rhapsody. I think that's my win right there. 

Archduke got eyes on my fleet this turn. 



Nan Madol is also doing them a solid by sending now two caravels this way. On the plus side, free XP!

Anyway, I sank the spear and the caravel, and did my own scouting back at them. 



I expect Archduke had about 3-5 ships here, but pulled back as he said in the diplo thread. Woden stayed in place to guard that settler. I moved my fleet forward, staying on coastal tiles. We'll see what he does, but he almost certainly pulls back. Meanwhile, here's a nice bit of micro. 



Luna doesn't have Mormonism, so a ship attacking from that tile doesn't get the DoTF bonus. BUT WAIT. 



One tile swap later and now it does 

I discovered Woden's cunning plan. 



The caravel is behind it. I see he chose Triton over Halimede, guessing he wants to kill my TR destination (Still angry that I had to share that info), and he wants to help Archduke kill off Singaboy. 

The depressing thing here is there is little I can do to stop him, not in that 1-tile channel. My 2 ironclads and 2 frigates are probably not enough to sink this MG and its caravel escort, not where he can control the pace of combat and I don't have overwhelming numbers. He's also probably really close to a promotion now, so if I go in and hit him but don't kill him, he just gets Line of Battle and becomes that much more terrifying. 

The bottom line here is that Triton gets burned on t172 and there's basically nothing I can do. After that, this MG will continue to be a major annoyance, because I can't economically kill it, and every ship hunting it is one not going after England's capital. 

Alternatively, he might choose to engage me instead, but I'm betting he just goes for the city. 

Also, Archduke is going really hard after Singaboy. 



Things are looking dire, but I think he can hold off until I get my fleet going. 

Still, despite my overwhelming force, Archduke and Singaboy still have ways they can weaken my position and strengthen their own (well, Archduke's). 

However, if I just play it cool, continue to limit their expansion, and hit my fleet power spike, I should be able to sew this thing up. 

The other long-term threat is the amenities situation. 



Okay for now, but still concerning. 

At any rate, I'm not as confident as I was a couple turns ago, but that's probably a good thing. I have a King, Rook, and Queen to their King and Queen, but it's not beyond my ability to throw things at this stage, and only careful play will allow me to prevail.

[oledavy]

An AI Diplo thread resolving into cheese and drama? Who would have thunk?

Thanks for the barrage of new reports. I really enjoy following your games, because they are always so well reported. I'm rooting for you to win one this time as well!

Thank you!

I find it funny how every now and then we have a game with some kind of diplo, and all it does is remind everyone why we moved away from diplo in every other game. This one would've been so much more enjoyable to lurk without one....

Very well played so far, good luck!

Thanks Yuris!

Yeah, if nothing else, I hope this game has reminded people while diplo is generally not a great idea. 

[oledavy]

Turn 171

It was a turn of small setbacks and victories. 




Kiel fell. Not too surprising, I'm honestly shocked it lasted this long. Still, I was hoping Singaboy might find a way to hold it for another turn or two. 

Archduke has 1 frigate fleet, 1 ironclad, Two great admirals, and at least two other naval units off Singaboy's east coast, and one sub off his west coast. He continues to pillage coastal tiles.



I really should have added up all of Archduke's visible military by now. 

Off the top of my head, he has 3 naval units (1 unknown, 2 ironclads) facing me, along with 2 Great Admirals.

In Norway he has at least 5 muskets and 1 bombard.  

In Germany, he has at least 2 bombards, 1 crossbow, and 3 muskets. 

He has about 1200 military strength at the moment. If I do the math, I can guesstimate how much navy he has hiding in the fog, although I suspect it's not a whole lot. Anyway, I'll try and do that next turn. 

The other bad news is this. 



Not a whole lot I can do. Attacking that city again will probably put him at 12 XP. So, I'm going to let him finish it off, and then see what he does.

I have two promoted frigates, two unpromoted frigates (which will all combine into fleets next turn), and two ironclads monitoring the situation.  

In the northeast, Archduke withdrew. 



I could have killed a musket last turn but didn't because I wanted to promote. My mistake, I could have inflicted more WW on him. Still, it seems he's not going to try and push his luck against my ships anymore. I'll take small victories where I can find them. Keeping Archduke from liberating his cities keeps his economy suppressed for longer. I started moving the ships west this turn, but they can still flex back should he change his mind. 

Woden did a weird thing. 



I guess he really wants to get that settler to shore, and forgot I had submarines. 

Anyway, I went ahead and sank the MG (getting 50 gold from one of my subs), sank both crossbows, and captured the settler. 





Using my scout to peek beyond, I see Archduke's small squadron lying in wait. I continued moving up this turn. 8 ships are elsewhere, and a couple are healing, but otherwise, everything else I have is here. 

I'm a little leary of moving up without absolutely everything. 

But realistically, with 6 MGs down, and 5 of Archduke's ships in Norway, my fleet can easily handle anything it encounters. So, we move forward. Maybe I can take some heat off Singaboy and force Archduke to move his fleet north to defend Bohemian Rhapsody. 

I estimate Woden has 2 MGs, one to the west around Grand Rio and the other in the south, in addition to his small squadron near Triton. Enough to be a pain, but not enough to stop me. 

8 turns to steel (it may go up next turn when Triton falls though...)

Anyway, I estimate I can have 33 single frigates ready by then, although many will have been combined into fleets. That will cost me 3795 gold to upgrade. I don't think I'm going to get that much, but having a backlog ready to upgrade will be fine.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

When you total up Archduke's power, could you do the same for Woden? Seems to make sense to try to get as clear a picture as possible of the total forces arrayed against you.

Side note: The public diplomacy thread, while handy as my only source of info outside your reports, is irritating in this regard. Would Woden have bothered to burn down Triton if he didn't know how much it was fueling your economy? Would he have been able to deduce it on his own?

[oledavy]

When you total up Archduke's power, could you do the same for Woden? Seems to make sense to try to get as clear a picture as possible of the total forces arrayed against you.

Side note: The public diplomacy thread, while handy as my only source of info outside your reports, is irritating in this regard. Would Woden have bothered to burn down Triton if he didn't know how much it was fueling your economy? Would he have been able to deduce it on his own?

I'll put up all the data I have on both of them next turn so we can start working out what military they both have in the fog. 

I suspect Woden was heading for Triton before he knew of its importance to my economy. Still, the entire affair has left a bad taste in my mouth. I'm winning though, so I can afford to be magnanimous. It will hurt my economy, but it won't be a death blow or anything like that.

[oledavy]

By the way, I have a fun idea of how to use Woden's settler. I'll share it next turn 

[oledavy]

Turn 173

Six turns to go to Steel, losing Triton didn't reduce that ETA, nor did it actually push me into the negative GPT wise. However, I'm likely to be about capped at upgrading an initial 20 frigates instead of the 33 I'll have.

 



Combined a couple new frigate fleets, each with Line of Battle, and moved my ironclads to block his avenues of retreat while being just a little bit out of sight. 

It's worth noting that naval melee units have a sight range of 3, as opposed to frigate's 2. I assume the same is true for MG's. I'll find out after the game.

Anyway, I'm mostly annoyed by this fleet at this point, I can't economically deal with it, and I'm seized by a fear that detailing a few ships to deal with it is a poor idea. Then again I can't very well let him run amok. Hopefully these forces can bring him to heel. I'll have Urban Defenses in a few turns and be able to rest a little easier. 

In the northeast, Archduke came back to pillage the tea. 



I hit it with both frigates, if he wants to pillage the tea, it will die. Furthermore, I have a builder en route to repair Phobos's tea plantation, so I'll only be without for a turn. 

In Germany, Singaboy continues to valiantly resist the British swarm. As long as it keeps British naval elements away from me, I'm happy. 



By the way, my economy without Triton. 



I'm going to reroute them next turn in such a way to make sure Lysithea and Enceladus finish frigates before steel comes in, and to try and speed up getting Lisboa - all by getting hammers to the right places.

In the northwest, Nan Madol continues to be an MVP of a city-state. They have sent four ships into the fray to die against me, and pillaged my TR. I killed their frigate this turn for 50 more gold. 



I guess Woden was trying to build an untakeable iceball city? I'm not sure. I'm sure he thought he was being extremely clever. 

He does have a knight corps up there that I anticipate he's sending into my backline around Callisto. I'm keeping an eye open for it to show up and be a pain in the ass. 

In the interim, the fleet continues to move up. 



So, my plan with his settler. 



The biggest issue with efficiently killing Archduke after getting Steel was going to be upgrading and moving to his capital. I would realistically have to upgrade around Lysithea, and then move up. However, Woden's free settler will allow me to move up, build a FOB, and waste significantly less turns between reaching steel and getting to Bohemian Rhapsody and Salgueiro. 

It's worth noting that while I am about to hit a massive power spike in the form of VA +battleships + GA, it won't last me forever. If this game goes about 20-30 more turns and Archduke isn't completely out of it, it could grind on for awhile after that. Why? Well, he'll have finished off Singaboy by then, and have the German holdings to equalize our science and culture, in addition to their production. I'll lose access to some German amenities, and WW will have really stacked up by then. Also, he'll still have Woden to do nothing but try and drag me down with his shell of an empire and 215 hammer MGs. 

While I think I could still prevail in that scenario, it involves a lot more uncertainty. I need to try and wrap this thing up by t190, which I think is really reasonable. 

We're going to set up on the island or peninsula east of Bohemian Rhapsody, upgrade to battleships, and then go to town razing as much stuff as I can. That should sew things up for me. 

Also, started my first espionage mission of the game this turn 



Ideally, it should finish right around the time I win this game.

[oledavy]

@Chevalier, here are the power numbers and the units I can see (or can conjecture exist).

I note the units that are wounded, but since this power number was calculated before Singaboy and I hit Archduke's units this turn, it shouldn't lead to too significant of a discrepancy.

Archduke: 1239 Power

9 Muskets (5 Wounded)
3 Bombards
2 Crossbows
1 Frigate (Wounded)
3 Ironclads (1 Wounded)
2 Submarines
1 Frigate Fleet
1 Missing Ship (Probably a Frigate)

That actually nearly accounts for everything. He probably only has a couple new ships out in the fog. 

With 1 sub, 1 frigate fleet, 1 ironclad, and 1 frigate near Germany, this means I can expect 1 sub, 2 ironclads, and probably 2-4 additional ships facing me. Easy. 

Woden: 762 Power

3 MGs (1 Theorized)
1 Caravel (Wounded)
1 Musket
2 Knights
2 Crossbows

A little more missing here, but I think he has a few warriors, archers, and a spear still running around. At any rate, I seriously doubt he's produced more MGs than the three I think he has currently. 

I look forward to seeing your read on the power numbers!