Dave Fires Up The Epstein Drive [Japan]

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

I can't seem to find the military power formula online, so I'm not sure how to calculate. Once I dig that up I'll take a look.

[oledavy]

I can't seem to find the military power formula online, so I'm not sure how to calculate. Once I dig that up I'll take a look.

It's just the sum of unit strengths. Ranged for ranged units, melee for melee units.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

I can't seem to find the military power formula online, so I'm not sure how to calculate. Once I dig that up I'll take a look.

It's just the sum of unit strengths. Ranged for ranged units, melee for melee units.

Okay, that helps.

So, I totalled up visible military from your screenshots and came up with a unit count very similar to your own. I assumed the others mentioned in your strength counts are those you have eyes on or have somehow confirmed their existence, so I kept your numbers after the sanity check. I've got all the stats in a spreadsheet now, allocating number of units, their individual strength, and total strength to each player, so if you keep me updated on units you kill and total score it'd be child's play to keep track of their military production.

Allowing for the slight decreases in his wounded units' strength, Archduke has about ~120 power unaccounted for. I don't know how the GA bonus gets factored in, but if you add ten score for every ship he has visible that's only 70 additional strength, so he's definitely got a few ships more out there. Let's assume all his extra power is in ships. That's enough for a pair of frigates (and a warrior), or a frigate and an ironclad, or a pair of ironclads (or a sub and an ironclad). Let's make a worst-case assumption and assume he has an extra sub and an extra frigate out there. I don't THINK it's possible, but better safe than sorry.

This, in turn, gives him a total fleet of three ironclads, a pair of frigates, a trio of subs, and a frigate fleet out there - a respectable force. How much is deployed against Germany? In the last three turns, I've seen one sub, one ironclad, the frigate fleet, and a frigate raiding Germany, and you've spotted two ironclads facing you in the western oceans. That means those two ironclads are supported by at most two subs and a frigate, unless my math is badly off here. Enough to bloody your nose, but not enough to stop you, I think, and not enough to capture your new city with your fleet supporting it (don't suppose you've got a missionary tagging along to immediately grab a DOTF bonus for your Forward Operating Base? FOB needs a good name). 

That leaves Woden. I think you've underestimated him. I only saw 1 MG, 1 caravel, and 1 crossbow in the screenshots, but you account for a handful more land units and two more MGs. I total only 521 strength from that, which leaves 241 milpower unaccounted for - in other words, he could have not 2 MGs defending his homeland, but as many as 5 - as big as the fleet you smashed at Bahia. I doubt he has that many concentrated, and I'd assume he has more than 1 caravel, but even if you grant him 1 more that still leaves 4 MGs lurking out there. It's enough to pose a significant threat if he manages to unite with Archduke, so your strategy of caution I think is wise here. Keep using the expendable scout to probe ahead and watch out for ambushes. 

I think the best plan right now is to continue as you have. Found the FOB (are there military bases in the Expanse? I haven't read past Caliban's War), continue to work your way along Woden's coast, razing or capturing as you go, and gear up for a decisive assault on Archduke's capital. If possible, I wouldn't mind some more scouts ranging the oceans, trying to find those last few missing ships. The better your intelligence, the less the chance that you screw up and give the game away.

[Old Harry]

Medina Station counts as a military base doesn't it? It's definitely a forward staging post at least.

Mechanics question - what happens when you combine ships with different promotions or where one has a promo and the other doesn't?

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

The new fleet inherits the promotions of whichever unit is clicked second, I believe.

[oledavy]

Medina Station counts as a military base doesn't it? It's definitely a forward staging post at least.

Mechanics question - what happens when you combine ships with different promotions or where one has a promo and the other doesn't?

I believe Chevalier is correct, but I would be lying if I said I was sure. As a rule, I'm combining promoted units with unpromoted units

Right now, I'm between: 

Medina Station
Tycho Station
Cantebury
Abaddon's Gate

@Chevalier

As for Woden, I'm recalling units I saw milling around before the alliance ended. In fact, I actually think I forgot a couple land units (like that knight corps running around in the north). 

In any event, your words of caution are well heeded.  

Turn 173



Woden continues to annoy me. My small outgunned squadron continues to pursue. I'm wondering if he heads to Laomedeia next turn, or makes a break for freedom and heads east. That MG could possibly swing the siege of Aachen, but there's not a whole lot I can do to stop it at present. 

In total, I have 2 fleets, 2 frigates, and 2 ironclads trying to chase this thing down or playing zone defense in the east (I killed one of Archduke's muskets this turn). 

In the west, I have the bulk of my force: 



8 Frigate fleets, 1 Frigate, 4 subs, 3 Ironclad fleets, with 1 ironclad fleet, 1 ironclad, and 2 more subs en route. 

Nan Madol sent up yet another ship which lit up my approaching Armada. I sank it for 45 gold. 

My subs have been the real MVPs of gold generation these last turns, between coastal raids and sinking ships, I've collected about 400 gold off them alone. 

Moving close to Salgueiro again meant I can finish pillaging Woden's TRs for even more gold. 



+140 gold. Every little bit counts at this point. Woden's economy is shot, as of this turn he was only making 30 GPT. Archduke is still holding strong at 133 GPT though. 

In Germany, he began his final assault. 



Singaboy has field cannons now though, so I suspect he'll be able to hold. He does have a sub off the west coast though, and that MG arriving could spell trouble. 

Unsure if I want to pursue it all the way over here if he heads this way. 

At any rate, the notable thing is Archduke withdrew his fleet this turn. 

They're still two turns out from the battle zone, but this means facing me I'll probably have: 

1 Sub
3 Ironclads
1 Frigate fleet
1 Frigate
2-5 Other ships
+Whatever Woden can deploy.

With 17 ships/fleets of my own in the region, I like my odds in this battle, but I don't really want to give it. Why fight him now when I can wait a few turns and fight him with battleships?

The question becomes, with my goal of forcing him to pull forces away from Germany completed, do I want to keep my fleet shoved up? I really don't want to give him an engage opportunity before I get to battleships, but its just as likely he sits back and waits for me to come closer. Moving up blind can have extremely bad consequences, as we saw with Woden. Yeah, he's likely to get a first strike, but if he moves up, he's just as likely to get it wrong and get hit by me. I'm producing a few more last minute scouts in my core, they're invaluable at this point as cheap vision. The only downside being that each one lost is 1/2 a WW. I still have one scout with my main fleet I've been using to check out the terrain in front of my vanguard. 

A real pity I don't have a missionary to convert my FOB city when I found it. 

At any rate, I hid all the fleet in the bay for this turn. 



This will be a constant debate for the next 5 turns as the timer to Steel ticks down. Stay put, or move back. Or alternatively, just move up now. 

It's not like I can't take losses and replace them. I actually have 14 frigates about to come off the line in the next 15 turns - my last burst of frigate-building before steel. However, losing lots more ships could inflict a crippling amount of WW. 

At any rate, I'm anxious to hear your thoughts on the matter Chevalier. I'm thinking about placing my city inside the bay in a safer spot than on the peninsula if nothing else. Forcing him to come around the headland and making it harder for him to get a clean engage should they choose to assault. 

I complete all three of my GA projects in the next 4 turns, so close. Rockefeller is up next. 



He would be awesome for me right now, but I only have a couple completed CHs and I'm extremely unlikely to get him before this game ends.

[oledavy]

Concession discussion has started again, or at least I think those last couple posts in the diplo thread were tantamount to a concession. 

I'm tempted to take it. I'm 99% sure I've got this thing in the bag, but I'm a consummate worrywort and I don't think it's beyond the realm of possibility that I might screw up. I additionally don't really want to make the other three players just play this out for my enjoyment. 

On the other hand, after so much fighting, I really want this game to end on the resoundingly decisive note of me upgrading to battleships, destroying the English fleet, and taking Bohemian Rhapsody. It would be a much more satisfying conclusion.

I think I want to play it out until then. It should only take 10-12 more turns.

[oledavy]

Turn 174

Another tense turn of waiting for steel. 



Yet another ship from Nan Madol. I ended up covering my scout with an ironclad fleet (good thing, because the caravel attacked after I ended turn). The rest of my fleet is waiting about 2-3 tiles behind in a trap. He might try to engage the ironclad, his ships from Germany should just be arriving, but if he does, I will have a good counter-attack option. Otherwise, I'm just going to idle around the peninsula in the shallow water and wait for Steel. 

In the east, I laid a trap for Woden's MG. 



He curiously stopped to attack Singaboy's embarked units. I hope he gives me a good attack option for next turn. 

The first GA project and the first of the latest round of frigates finishes next turn. My power will only continue to grow. 

In Germany, Singaboy attacked out and killed both bombards 



Nice move. Archduke also has more forces here than I expected (that new musket which I think just came from Trier, probably another en route too), so that is at least one less ship hiding in the fog. If it weren't for the sub off his coast or the possibility of Brazilian intervention, I would say Archduke's attack is done. As it stands, if they're ready to concede, they're probably going to go hell to leather to take Aachen before the game concludes to claim the moral victory.

I now have enough for 20 battleship upgrades, and with 33 frigates running around or about to be running around, no shortage of candidates. I'm set to get a little more gold too from raiding Woden's coasts.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Okay, so I did a bit of math. You killed a musket, but another popped up near Germany, so I let those cancel each other out. Then, subtracting Archduke's bombard deaths, I came up with a total strength of 1129 for him, with 1035 accounted for. That means he almost certainly can't have two unknown ships out there, so I'm revising my assumptions of his likely squadron facing you: 3 ironclads, a frigate and a frigate fleet, and a pair of subs (with a third off Germany's west coast), or 7 ships against your 17.

Woden's force estimates I keep the same.

Personally, I like the more aggressive plant. I figure one of two things will happen:

1)Archduke continues to cautiously withdraw, waiting until either Woden's MGs join him (they're not coordinating this in the public thread, though), or for some other favorable opportunity to strike, or he's merely buying time until he *has* to face you or lose his capital. In this case, the aggressive plant gives you more sea spaces to upgrade more battleships, and you have a shorter sail to the decisive confrontation.

2)Archduke sees the plant and comes hell-for-leather to burn it down. This provokes an engagement on your terms, with the possibility to exploiting tactical missteps on his part, like Bahia Bay. I think this is a favorable outcome for you, so I see no reason not to make the plant.

Regarding your movements in the interim to battleships, I think you can safely press Salguero - in fact I think it's a good way to mark time in the intervening turns. It's Woden's best remaining source of MGs, so the sooner it burns, the better. I think it's best to use your fleet before he can organize and raze it, since you can fairly easily guard the western channel and redeploy if his remaining MGs or Archduke's squadron make an appearance.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Woden agreed to a concede with Archduke (possibly pending one last fleet battle). Singaboy is the last domino to fall, and he usually logs in about 8 hours from now, so this could be it.