[SPOILER] Dark Savant graduates from blatant n00b to plain n00b

[Dark Savant]

Jaguars defense plays well, forces 3-and-out even though Brady had a lot of time on 3rd down.

Wait, I forgot Agg.  I'd probably take Exp/Agg and Imp/Agg as backups too.

I can probably get one of those, but I feel those are all downgrades ... that's a large gamble trying to get something better than what's effectively my 3rd choice.  Let me think about that.

[Dark Savant]

Patriots have a hard time even slowing down the Jaguars, who now lead 14-3.  

Okay, I think I've convinced myself that I should not keep Byzantium and reroll leaders.  I'd have to be playing this game for months whatever I do, and while a 50% shot for a substantial advantage is worthwhile, a <15% chance for a smaller advantage isn't something I should do.

Next thing to consider: whether I should reroll everything.

[Dark Savant]

Patriots try the "throw to Gronkowski all the time" strategy, which works for a few plays, but they still have to punt down 14-3.

What civs would I be happy with getting on a reroll?  Let's forget about leaders for now.

This is a Hunting/Mining start, so any of the 4 civs with those techs (Ethiopia, Germany, Khmer, Russia) would be strong.

Other Hunting civs: the Zulu are very much still attractive, even if the Ikhanda nerf goes in.  I don't think Persia is; their UU/UB don't mean much in MP, I don't think.  I'd take Greece still as well; they were a good choice last game, and still are with this start.  The Aztecs have a good UB; I wouldn't have to go religion-first with them.  The same goes for the HRE.  Mongolia is also good.

The Vikings are only worthwhile on a water-heavy map.  The Celts are even more marginal.

[Dark Savant]

Patriots defense holds up, partly because the Jaguars do a stupid thing and snap the ball late on what was otherwise a fantastic play for them.

Okay, Mining-without-Hunting civs: China and Korea (Agriculture in place of Mysticism in RtR) are strong.  Rome is still good even with the Praetorian nerf.  England is meh; would be stronger if their UU/UB came earlier.  Carthage and Portugal are both gambling for a water map, which is okay but I think I'd rather keep the current gamble on religion.  The Mayans (wouldn't have to go for religion) and Mali are both solid but not fantastic.

[Dark Savant]

Patriots score a touchdown in the two minute-drill before the half ends.   It helps that the Jaguars continue to commit stupid penalties.

Civs with neither Hunting nor Mining: Agriculture/The Wheel is still a reasonable if not optimal start, and France and the Ottomans deliver good UU/UB combinations, probably also Sumer.  India has awful starting techs, but this start has enough hills and forests for even the nerfed Fast Worker to be a strong draw.  Incan terraces are also still good, especially if I can somehow land Protective with it.

Any other civ would be a miss.  Though I'd probably play Tokugawa of America if I drew it, because not only is it not half bad, the temptation to play Loser Leader of Loser Civ would be too strong to resist.  

[Dark Savant]

Second half now ... Jaguars offense proves to be strong enough to get a field goal, going up 17-10.

Okay, so that's about half the civs in the game that I'd be happy with playing without going for a religion.  In a vacuum that's about a 75% chance, but many of the civs I'd be happy to play would probably be kept in this round and never be able to reach me.  It's probably more like a 2/3 chance at best.

I'd probably also want to reroll, as while either leader I have supports going for an early religion well, they likely wouldn't be that great playing normally.

[Dark Savant]

Brandon Cooks fails to catch a reasonable Brady pass (though I wouldn't call it perfect like the commentators did), and the Patriots punt (close to being able not to, but not close enough).

I wonder what the chance that either leader I have is better than what I'd draw with a complete reroll.  My guess is that with 4 chances to get something better, I could probably do so around 60-70% of the time.  That's pretty difficult to quantify, though.

[Dark Savant]

Patriots defense plays well and the Jaguars have to punt deep from their own territory.  Then the Patriots offense can't do much of anything, and punt deep into the Jaguars' own territory again (though I'd have been sorely tempted to go for it on 4th and 2 at that field position ...)

So, I'm guessing that if I try to reroll for a non-religion start that I'd be happy with, I have about a 50% chance of doing so.  That's not a better gamble than what I already have.

That means I should probably keep Exp/Imp Byzantium, shouldn't I?  Maybe I should quantify things more.

[Dark Savant]

Jaguars again have enough offense to pull off a field goal.    That's why I would have gone for it on 4th and 2, really.  Gronkowski also officially out with what looks like a concussion. 

There are quite a few trait combinations that I wouldn't be thrilled with as Byzantium that I'd be thrilled to get with a non-religion start.  Tokugawa is easily the best example of that.

[Dark Savant]

Dion Lewis fumbles on what was otherwise a great play.     The Patriots force a punt on the ensuing Jaguars drive, at least.

What leader I could get on a reroll, that's really unclear, since it's unclear what other players would actually keep.  I still think it's a 60-70% shot.

Combined with the probability of a civ reroll, that suggests rerolling will not pay compared to simply keeping Exp/Imp Byzantium.