(February 26th, 2018, 23:08)oledavy Wrote: I'm really surprised at how oblivious Japper apparently is to the pain train coming his way from Sullla. I mean, he's even playing Rome in PBEM5, I would think that would at least kinda clue him in to just how strong legions are. At the very least he's about to really wish his swords were not off attacking Nan Madol
This is of course CMF/Woden's question too, but Japper/Cornflakes have already answered it in their thread: They are
intentionally ignoring the possibility that Sullla might attack them because CMF/Woden have telegraphed their intentions even more heavy-handedly, even further in advance, and in such a way as to encourage a revenge mindset. Japper/Cornflakes already know
with certainty (and of course correctly) that CMF/Woden will attack them at the next convenient opportunity, and their assessment is that if Sullla also attacks,
it doesn't matter what they do: They're going to be the meat in a pain sandwich, and will rapidly be eliminated.
This is actually the same (correct) calculus that Woden made when you complained about his failure to help you against [the "runaway" leader of the moment] in PBeM4: Thinking about the game from the perspective of a team with a shot at victory, you're failing to appreciate how the calculation differs for a team with nothing to lose.
If you can't [help to rein in the runaway] or [try to defend a second frontier] and still retain any hope of eventual victory, you have to cling to the chance, no matter how slim, that something will break your way: The second- and/or third-place team reining in the runaway without your help while you build up your civ (as actually happened in PBeM4, so quickly and thoroughly that Woden still couldn't catch up anyway, only partly because he wavered in his resolve) or your second powerful neighbor letting you fight your bitter enemy instead of claiming a share of your carcass for themselves (looks like Cornflakes/Japper won't be so lucky in this case, but it's still their only hope).
Realistically though, the distant-fourth-place team in question wasn't going to win the game in
either of these cases. They probably each made the right decision to preserve any microscopic chance they had ... but they may also just be doing whatever they think is most fun at this point: Not a terrible response to a guaranteed loss.
