Woden's and Chevalier Mal Fet's [Insert Clever Name Here] Team Thread

[Woden]

Well if you are still around, I just got the save and you can play in 10-15 minutes.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

I played and passed, but will report tomorrow.

[Woden]

No turn today, so let's pick a fight with Woden about the utility of walls. 

  I would write up my report tonight but feel I have to respond to this blasphemy about walls. 

You are correct that in SP, ancient walls are all you need. The AI simply sucks at the game and can easily be defended against. You are also correct that support units help greatly in taking down walls and you need an army to protect your cities because without a supporting army, you can have the best walls and it still won't take long to lose your cities. 

But, you are not considering a few things. 
(1) Each level of walls adds +2 city strength, it sticks around after Urban Defenses, and you don't get it unless you build them. You build all three levels and you get an additional +6 in city strength. Modern cities with +6, when rams and siege towers no longer work can really help when defending. 

(2) +50 HP doesn't sound like much but it does add up and slow people down. In the first war between Germany and England in PBEM4, England was able to rip right through Germany cities because they had only Ancient  Walls with 50 HP. The second war took longer because Germany had better walls. Now it may only delay the attacker by a turn or 2 but those turns may allow you to (a) kill the ram or (b) re-position forces to counterattack. My biggest mistake in PBEM2 was undervaluing the importance of city defense HP. Russia was able to rip right through my defenses with only Ancient Walls. Would Urban Defenses helped? I probably still would have been on the losing side because of the boogiemen but it would have delayed him long enough to get into infantry and a unit that could withstand his attack. 50 HP versus 200 HP can make a difference. 

(3) Production costs due scale but you will see shortly how powerful Monarchy can be with the extra +50% to build walls. With Limes, that makes wall chops worth an extra 150%. I am going to chop out 4 universities building walls in my cities with Campuses. 150% chops are worth ~83% of a district. Walls do become expensive but with Limes and Monarchy, the costs become 32, 90, and 122 for ancient, medieval, and renaissance, respectively.  No too much production for higher strength cities, more defense HP, housing, and tourism. Plus, units get more expensive too for overflow chopping. You need to compare the cost of walls to the cost of units of the same Era to see what the better deal is for chopping and ships are the only thing you can get 100% production on. 

I don't think you need to build walls in every city but should in the front line ones for stronger cities and build them in cities to get chop value. Now, we haven't really seen games get to far into the tree. I think PBEM2 was the longest so far and we did get to Urban Defenses back when it was at Civil Engineering but I do believe the game also made it to steel. The importance of better walls have not been really shown but we could try an experiment. You stick with your ancient walls and I will build better ones and if/when we are attacked, see who's cities fares better.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Turn 97

This turn saw some naval combat, a few more steps on my road to the VA, and some fairly major news from abroad. 

First, let's open with the fleet forcing the straits of Madagascar:




I push HMS Ocean deeper into the strait, clearing the path for the fresh galley, HMS Neptune, to press forward and join the assault. The Neptune sails in close and mutilates the enemy quad, doing more damage than I anticipated and taking virtually none in return. That's good - I can make this ship the point ship as I try to find the Southwest Passage to the Roman sea (I guess that's the Mediterranean?). This exploration is less urgent now, since I want to send all my ships to Rome via the Russian passage in order to level up off the fjord. I'd also like to keep Sullla from discovering it so he can level up HIS navy. How do I know Sullla is planning on building a navy? Well, I'll get to that. 

Anyway, the Ocean is now free to finish off the barbarian and earn a promotion in the process:



I'll probably take Embolden and Helmsman on most of my ships - any promotions past 2 are a luxury. 

This does the raise the question: Do I even want to continue this scouting expedition? I know there are no natural wonders to be found that way, I've discovered all 4. I know there's only one city-state left, and it's on the far side of Germany, not Kongo, so I'd still have to sail around the whole Mediterranean. A second sea passage might be mildly useful, EXCEPT that the natural wonder on the road to Russia makes sending every ship I can build on this sea that way a no-brainer. I'm debating calling off the mission of exploration, pulling these two galleys back home, and then I can upgrade them to Caravels and send them with a flotilla of Frigates to ravage the coasts of Rome/China in about 20 turns. 

Here's the continuation of the southeastern passage: 




Once my mission of discovery is complete, I plan to station a ship at this 1-tile wide passage until my whole fleet transits through, purely to make sure I deny that natural wonder to Sullla or Singaboy (if China floats a navy, too). If I'd spawned in Emperor's position, it'd have been worth building a harbor in that tundra city just so I could produce ships here and get the instant promotion before sailing them off. I'm glad it's a wonder that Emperor really can't make use of. 

Let's go to the front. Bad news:




Japper is finally moving south, apparently satisfied that I'm not going to try to snipe the city from him. Unfortunately, Sullla has upgraded to knights, and Japper probably isn't aware (unless he's got knights attacking at his capital now...). I hope Cornflakes is prepared to meet that, because Japper's Ngaos and Archers will melt before that like butter on the pavement in San Antonio. Sullla is also passing quads through the canals and into the North Sea - where my naval strength consists of this sole galley. I've got a bunch of quads queued up at Actium, but it's my only base to build on this sea, a pretty major vulnerability. I think when I get my settler wave after the VA completes I'm going to concentrate on cities on this ocean: Jutland, Dogger Bank, and Lepanto. I can use my small naval squadron I'm planning on building at Actium to cover the cities long enough to get harbors and walls (I know, I know, walls!   ) up and running. Then those cities will concentrate on ship production while builders from deeper in the empire support. 

Meanwhile, Sullla has at last found my borders, and probably glimpsed most of Woden and I's armies in the process:



My main worry about this development is that he'll speed up his conquest of Kongo - looking at the map and where our forces are relative to his, I don't think we're going to beat him to the capital, unless Cornflakes puts up a very stout defense. Ideally, Woden snaps up Cornflakes' two expansion cities, then Sullla and Woden have a brawl in the desert between the two capitals, with Woden's GG and superior numbers giving him the edge (I'm in position to support with Crossbows on the flank - I need to avoid overcommitting early to keep my army ready for that fight, which will be the truly decisive one!). I feel good about that battle, going by domination scores and what we have on the field. 

Woden, my one worry is about your current formations. Right now, you've got a leading wave of crossbows, with the knights lagging badly. Tactically, I'm just afraid of Cornflakes striking out of the fog with knights into that. Knights will chew up crossbows in a brawl, and while I have no doubt you'd beat him, he could do some damage before he went down and leave you vulnerable to Sullla's follow up. You probably have a plan for this, but I just wanted to make sure you were aware just in case. 

To illustrate, here's Woden's knight corps: 



Just upgraded, about 10 turns from the front. Would it be worth delaying the attack (again? :/) until the knights are up, or do we need to move fast? I hate delaying more than we already have, so it probably is best to go. The road to the ruined Aranyaka helps! 

So in my core, you see that Trafalgar finished one builder and started another. I need 2 more for the chop at Navarino, and I think I can squeeze 'em all in. I can't improve the farms I want, though, because they're currently being trampled under Nubian hooves as the massive Nubian army tromps past to the west! If Woden and I weren't allied, I'd be so dead right now it's not even funny. Well, it's a little funny. 

Salamis is ready to be chopped, the builder just got into position this turn. t98 I'll swap to the quadrireme and chop, and we'll see how much is left of the commercial hub. Every trade route is worth 3 science and 1 culture to me in addition to hte gold/food/production bits (I'm sending every trader either to a Woden campus city or Geneva, duh), in addition to the benefits of the hubs themselves. My entire economy is built on traders out of RNDs at the moment - 21 science, 20 culture from coastal districts, almost all my gold...Traders are not to be underestimated this game. I've built 1 campus and no theater squares and I'm running with the leaders in science and culture anyway. I keep expecting to drop behind (maybe at universities or rationalism), but that hasn't happened yet! Hanging in there! 

Now let me get to the major news of the turn. I've been scouting with my Renaissance GA, since I don't have any Renaissance units yet while research is diverted to the VA. I'm trying to find what cities Sullla has on the coast, and to map the water route to Lisbon for a naval raid as soon as I can scrape the forces together. Sailing past the natural wonder in the north, I find this:



Now that's an odd place for an Industrial Zone, thinks I. I can tell from the tiles that Firenze must be northeast of that lake, a fine city spot. So this is a third ring tile that Sullla must have purchased, but why? It only gets 1 adjacent mine (can't get rid of the spices to build a mine on the other tile), and if he built it inland instead, he'd get the same adjacency plus he can use the factory's coverage to reach more cities, so why- ? -gasp- OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOH, WAIIIIIIIIIT A MINUTE. I see what's happening here! There's only one fucking reason to build an Industrial Zone on the coast like this! 

So Woden, it looks as if we're in a race for the Venetian Arsenal after all. 

The only way this IZ placement makes sense is to enable the VA at that city. It's just a poor location otherwise, unless Sullla knows something I don't. Occam's Razor, though. Okay, so how does this alter my plans? Let's remain calm and assess:

1)Sullla can't start the wonder yet. He needs to finish the IZ first, and he needs to research Mass Production. I'm not sure how accurate the chart on the bottom of the tech tree is, but it looks like he's not at Mass Production yet. I can start the wonder in 11 turns, so that's one ticking deadline he has. 
2)He still needs to purchase the tile [belated realization: uh, so do I. Add another 100 gold to my total, Woden. I'm going to save my present gold, swap to land surveyors, and do a bunch of purchases at once, I think?], and I'll be able to see when he starts it. 
3)He can't see Navarino - hell, I don't think anyone can, 'cept MAYBE Emperor/Archduke got a glimpse. I can monitor his progress but he has no idea how far along I am, or if I'm even going for it. 
4)Even if he goes hell-for-leather, Firenze has some weaknesses compared to Navarino: 

• No stone that I can see, for mildly poorer chops. Navarino has three. 
  
• No harbor, which means no ships, which means no Maritime Industry chops. He COULD actually build and dump ships into that lake, which honestly might be worth it if he knew I was racing him. But he doesn't know that that might be necessary, and he'll probably not want to build useless ships that get stuck in the lake forever. That means I effectively have 3 +100% chops to his 1, if he chops walls there (which I assume he will). Furthermore, my chops will all be of stone, while his will probably not. 
  

5)To sum up: Sullla will be able to start the build 1-10 turns before me, if he starts during his turn today. He will probably get 1 150% forest chop, plus possibly up to 3 more unboosted chops depending on those fogged tiles. I wish I'd scouted this city better earlier from the land! He will not get as many boosted stone chops as I will, and he may not know that the race is as close as it is. I was planning on a 1-turn build time ~t114, but my research has since dropped the start time to t108. I won't have as powerful chops then, but I'll be able to start earlier, and I'm prepared to use as many builders as it takes. 

So here's the plan: We continue researching as decided. I will place the wonder as soon as I can, but I will not start chopping into it until I have every builder in place. That prevents ~900 production from disappearing if Sullla beats me after I chop prematurely. I need to carefully work out, each turn, how much production I can expect from chops, how much remains, and so I'll know the exact turn to blast the wonder to completion in a single blow. Need to consult Woden's formulae again. My culture won't be as advanced as I was counting on by a few civics, so we'll go with Woden's lower science estimate. 

More math later today, but I'm 70% confident I can snatch this wonder.

[Woden]

I think you chance are higher than 70%. The no harbor thing is huge. No 100% bonus chops into ships, which means at best he can get the 1 150% for walls, and maybe a chop or 2 into units for +50% but he would have to build crossbows and muskets (and he doesn't have Gunpowder yet), he no longer gets the boost for legions from Agoge. He might be able to get it for horseman but once he gets Monarchy, Maneuver is no longer available, so no cheap horseman and boosted chops. Knights are expensive, so it wold take time to build them to overflow chop.

I am confident your timeline is still good, so don't freak out. He still has to build the district and finish Mass Production. I best guess is that he will chop walls for a +150% and then have a bunch of turns to slow build it. He is probably using oledavy's timeline from PBEM4 as a indicator of when it is possible and you are way ahead of that. Good catch and we will have to keep an eye on that city to see how he progresses.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Hey, don't I sound calm? 70% odds are actually quite good for me - I expect that 7 out of 10 times I will beat Sullla to this wonder. The other 3 times, he has lots of stone or something saved up out of sight and he beats me, or I've disastrously miscalculated chops, or something. I might be pessimistic and my odds might be as high as 90%, of course.

No worries, I'm not overly worried. I have a fantastic city for this - maybe the best 1-turn wonder setup I've ever seen.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Weird turn today. Turn arrived too late to put together a score report, so I'll try and do one tomorrow.

Turn 98

Turn started off with some bad news: Ocean has been sunk! 




Two fresh barbarian quads are sailing hard for Neptune, so, chastened, I pull back. I don't need that sea passage - everything will pass via Russia anyway, so there's nothing more to be gained by beating my head against this wall. If nothing else the barbs will hamper attempts by anyone else to enter my waters. 

Now for the weird news. Sullla came offering a bizarre deal that I can't make heads nor tails of. 




Now, I've worked out from reading other PBEMs that gold amounts are typically used as timers in non-diplomatic games. So, in 6 turns, Sullla wants...iron? What's going on here? Is he asking for a joint war with Khmer in six turns - like, inviting us to join and share the spoils? But there's a joint war button! Maybe you can only offer that to allies and he doesn't want to commit to an alliance? Is he threatening us to back off or he attacks in six turns? Is he just trying to cultivate relations to get a handle on my intentions, to butter me up? 

I have no idea what he wants, so I decline on the general principle that if Rome is for it, I'm against it. 

So much for that. The rest of the turn is quiet. Woden finishes Recorded History:




Perfect timing. I swap over to Civil Service - 6 turns, followed by Divine Right, a further 6 turns. So, Woden, you should have the inspiration for a Tier 2 government in 12 turns. 

With that in mind, I have set my target date for the VA at Turn 110. 12 turns from now. That will be turn I enter Monarchy, which will add 50% to my wall chop - which I learned is not additive, but multiplicative! In other words, I'll be getting the stone harvest x 2 x1.5, not x2.5, as I thought - so it'll be a triple strength harvest. 

Each stone should be worth 121.5 cogs, with 23 techs going by Woden's spreadsheet. One gets boosted x3, 2 others x2. So that's 364.5 + 2(243) = 850 cogs just from the stone harvests. A forest chop unboosted is worth 81 cogs, which is enough right there for the 920 cost Arsenal, with 11 extra cogs. A lot of that extra will be eaten up by the loose change of production on my chops, but I have 1 final builder ready to chop a jungle for that. So, 5 builders will be all I need. 

Now let's look at gold costs. They keep increasing, but I should just be able to scrape enough together with Land Surveyors (which, I, uh, don't have time to enter. Hm. A problem). 

Here's the gold situation around Navarino:



I need to buy 2 115 tiles (the Arsenal itself and a stepping stone to a stone tile) and 3 170 tiles (2 stones and 1 forest), plus if I can I need that jungle for a further 115. So 3(115) + 3(170) = an astonishing 855 gold! I could cut that to 684 with Land Surveyors, but I need time to swap to Land Surveyors. Medieval faires needs 2 turns, so I could swap at Monarchy, then swap later...Wait, that's dumb, I won't need Serfdom or Trade Confederation at Monarchy (well, I will, but not right away). I'll take Maritime Industries, Conscription, and Limes at Monarchy, and Land Surveyors and Trade Confederation as economic techs. So I need ~700 gold. Woden, I have 93 now and I make 58. In 12 turns I'll make 696, which is JUST enough - so no more gold from me for 12 turns. After the VA is done, I can switch back to Gold mode and start saving up again. We'll need lots to upgrade ships and military units, so anything we can do to increase gold between now and then is ideal. 

The only issue left in the timeline is Navarino's production. I have 12 turns to produce ancient walls and another quad to be ready to chop. Possible solution is to chop using a galley instead, those are half the cost of a quad. I'll judge when the time for chopping comes in a few turns. 

Annoyingly, as you can see above, Salamis needs one more turn on its quad. I guess there was some overflow that got eaten up by the CH. No worries, there's time. The discount will drop the cost of the IZ to 60%, and the chop will give 66% of a district's cost once it's doubled, so I'll be able to 1-turn the IZ at Navarino. Just need the CH finished first. 

Other news: heading north past Firenze, I find that it's not so simple to reach Lisbon by sea...



Well, that's mildly annoying but I'm sure there's an ice passage. I can get there quickly enough with frigates and Caravels. A small squadron of 3 frigates and a caravel should do the trick. Sullla won't have any defenses up there, and it's a small enough force that I can still hold the sea with the VA. Actium is going to be BUSY shipbuilding, it really needs support. 




More crossbows and Ngaos face off around Kinshasha. Sulla has 2 galleys and a quad on this sea now - more than double my force, though I have quads ready to come off the slip at Actium. I need to be careful with my galley as our friendship expires. Oh, and he finished the IZ, so we're just waiting on him to finish Mass Production to start his build. 

So I guess the question you lurkers gotta ask yourselves: Can Sullla build the VA in 12 turns? :D I'm feeling lucky.

[Woden]

 Woden, I have 93 now and I make 58. In 12 turns I'll make 696, which is JUST enough - so no more gold from me for 12 turns. After the VA is done, I can switch back to Gold mode and start saving up again. We'll need lots to upgrade ships and military units, so anything we can do to increase gold between now and then is ideal. 

This is what I mean by freaking out. Stick with the plan and send me all your gold next turn. I have 2 coppers that should be worth ~380 that I can send to you in 10 turns, before T110. Let me upgrade at least 1 more knight and a sword. I need to get out of Professional Army and into Limes. You will have enough gold when you need it from my copper chops. 

As for Sullla's offer, it is a bit strange/confusing. From PBEM1, I thought horses meant no ill will. When does our friendship end? Probably in 6 turns? Will have to double check. He did have a galley checking out my army last turn. Does Iron means war? Why would he broadcast it? Does he want to intimidate us into not carving out Khmer's lands for ourselves? Screw that, his MP did jump 757 this turn from what I assume is Knight upgrades but mine is now 931, plus he has a lot of Legions and I still have warriors. My power comes from crossbows and knights. Why would he broadcast an attack? The only thing I can think of is that since our armies are all gathered north of Khmer that he thinks we are moving on him instead of Khmer, maybe? Is it a warning that "he knows we are attacking him"? I know for previous MP games (especially PB2), Sullla gets dogpiled, or at least thinks he gets dogpiled.  I guess that is our grand plan but not until Japper and Cornflakes are out of the game. Well, whatever...I guess we will have to watch out when we get close to each other and make sure my troops are not exposed to his. 

By the way, can you get a Quad out of Actium soon. If Sullla is bring ships through the canal cities to the north sea, after he takes Kinchassa he may move onto Nan Madol to hurt your culture. I wouldn't wait for the VA. i would get 1 or 2 out now. Side note: is that his warning? That he will attack Nan Madol in 6 turns? Again, why broadcast it? Does he think he is that good that he whats to intimidate us? This is not PBEM1, where no one really had an idea of MP combat yet. So confusing. Well, I guess we will know in 6 turns what he meant.

Edit: Also, no time today to write up my past 2 turns, will have to wait until tomorrow. Nothing really happened, just moving units closer

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

I'm confused, I thought the last round of gold was the last one you needed. Do you need one more transfusion?

[Woden]

Nubia-Turn 97

Start the turn with...

I have a deal waiting, so I check it out and looks like CMF came through with some more gold...

Time to upgrade some knights. I was able to upgrade 5, as the sixth one was not able to make it to within England's borders and still have movement left to upgrade. I will upgrade him next turn. Here are the knights...

Now I just need 3 turns to get them to the front. Probably will declare on T100. I don't think I be in position on T99 and it will feel rushed. Hope it is not too late. 

I sent the builder at Nu-Kandy south to improve the whales by Taueret. He reached his destination this turn and was able to improve the whales, bring all but 1 city into ecstatic happiness... 

+10% yields in most of my cities. Here is the western front...

You can see Rome's galley getting vision on my units. My crossbows are making there way to north of Khmer. Should be in position by the time the Knights arrive.  Back home...

Not much going on. Next turn 2 builders will complete with many to follow in the coming turns.