[SPOILERS - NO PLAYERS] The Final Clusterfuck: The PB38 Map and Lurker Thread

[ipecac]

Raise your hand if you thought Donovan Zoi would get the first elim at any point after turn 1.

I expected DS to play safe. In the end, 36% chance was too tempting for Donovan Zoi to remain competitive.

Woody II was a good play too.

[Mardoc]

Woody II was a good play too.

Looks like it saved DZ a turn in getting to the capital, which was just enough to let him attack the warrior instead of an archer stacked with warrior.

So, yeah. If he didn't do that he'd pretty much have to be settling down to a siege right now.

[scooter]

Maintenance is going to be rough on Donovan, but the fact that he gets a holy city out of this helps so much. He should be able to claw himself back economically if he makes smart choices.

[Dark Savant]

Okay, I'm not sure what I could have done differently, other than the huge mistake of not realizing Donovan Zoi had a no-metal metal unit before it was too late.  (Or just rerolling everything before turn 0 -- I was expecting a little more breathing room than this.  One extra tile of space would have prevented this from going that badly!)

A lot of things had to go wrong even after that for me to get eliminated this early, too.

I'm now really concerned I just screwed up the game for everyone.

Raise your hand if you thought Donovan Zoi would get the first elim at any point after turn 1.

I expected DS to play safe. In the end, 36% chance was too tempting for Donovan Zoi to remain competitive.

Woody II was a good play too.

Yes, it actually was ~36%, I didn't screw up that calculation.

I didn't realize the attack would come a turn early from the Woodsman II promotion until it was too late, so I would have had to whip a warrior at the empty-box penalty.  It'd be significantly harder to prevent him from camping my copper after that.

I had everything lined up to produce 3 3-XP archers in 3 turns, so it was definitely the right move to attack at a 36% shot.

[Mardoc]

I'm now really concerned I just screwed up the game for everyone.  

Oh, um, I didn't want to mention this while you were still playing, but...Donovan is still realistically behind both FinHarry and The Black Sword (and probably more - those two are just people I've been following).  They both have four cities connected, with tight micro plans and continuing tile improvements.  He now has ... four cities, two in revolt, spread out awkwardly.  By the time your cities are out of revolt, those opponents will probably be to 5-6 cities.

He's got Buddhism now, which is worth something as well, but honestly getting especially lucky with his attack has only brought him back into the field, not put him ahead. He lost ground by moving his capital, and lost more ground by building so many scouts and holkans instead of settlers/workers.

His attack may have worked, but I don't really think it was a good idea. If he didn't win that 36% fight, he'd be way behind the field at this point.

[Dark Savant]

I'm now really concerned I just screwed up the game for everyone.  

Oh, um, I didn't want to mention this while you were still playing, but...Donovan is still realistically behind both FinHarry and The Black Sword (and probably more - those two are just people I've been following).  They both have four cities connected, with tight micro plans and continuing tile improvements.  He now has ... four cities, two in revolt, spread out awkwardly.  By the time your cities are out of revolt, those opponents will probably be to 5-6 cities.

He's got Buddhism now, which is worth something as well, but honestly getting especially lucky with his attack has only brought him back into the field, not put him ahead.  He lost ground by moving his capital, and lost more ground by building so many scouts and holkans instead of settlers/workers.

His attack may have worked, but I don't really think it was a good idea.  If he didn't win that 36% fight, he'd be way behind the field at this point.

Hmm, okay, I feel better about that now.  I do have a lot to catch up on while I wait for PB39 to begin.

Was it reasonably foreseeable that I shouldn't have let that warrior die?  I thought a 1% shot was worth losing it, but it provided enough XP to get his holkan to Woodsman II, which I wasn't expecting either, and that was just enough to for him to get to my capital in time.  Is that a move you see in rushes?

[ipecac]

Often it's better to just abandon cities prevent the attacker from getting exp.

[Coeurva]

Most decisive case of Woody promotions (on Jaguars, though) coming into play that I recall was PB27 (on RtR 3.x), when Gavagai/Bacchus conquered Grimace with lots of axes (iirc) and had to deal with Barteq's "forest superhighway" (and high soldier count, which it probably is by default when it's higher than Gavagai's ), which iirc forced them to give up some cities to preserve their stack. Barteq did survive to the end, no mean feat in that game.

[scooter]

I'm gradually being swayed onto the "Rusten Hype is Real" train. He looks like a legit contender here.

[darrelljs]

I remember him from CFC as well...he's legit.

Darrell