[NO PLAYERS] PBEM 7 Map Making & Lurkers

[MJW (ya that one)]

I don't think it's possible for Sulla to sign peace and take out Nan Modal because you can cut it off using your units like oledavy did to singaboy. They will see the attack coming a mile away and only need to block one hex.

[Shimomo]

My tentative analysis:

CMF/Woden are in a tough spot. It doesn't seem like CMF has the production capacity to really leverage the VA, so he'll end up drawing attention to himself which he can't back up. Plus both of them are strapped for gold, so their relative tech parity isn't as meaningful as it seems.

AD/EK have a good-looking position. AD is keeping EK aware of the mid-term strategic picture; hopefully he can keep EK focused on Cossacks, since other than raw production Germany won't have any advantage over China's faith hoard/horde. I think there's a chance EK will want to go after Woden simply from convenience.

Sullla/SB are good except for the metagame--they simply look too strong, and it might be a blessing in disguise they don't pick up the VA. I think their best long-term chance of winning comes down to them getting EK to send the Cossacks toward Woden, and the best way to do that would be to maintain a strong defense in China (either by threat or execution of the faith horde) while Sullla gets into a bloody war in old Khmer. If Sullla looks too strong, EK/AD will be forced to take them down, but if he can tie up Woden's army and entice EK to come after Woden, they have a good chance in the long run.

[Ituralde]

Yeah, CMF snatching the VA is purely for denial right now and as you have rightly stated it might be a blessing for Sullla to not get it, because he would look too threatening if he had it.
But if Sullla landed the VA and started to dominate England at sea it would be equally bad for them.

It will come down to who ends up on the receiving end of a 2 v 1. What constellation will happen in the end though, who knows?

[Shimomo]

Archduke with the good call passing on the great scientist... Will he follow through?!?

[Ituralde]

Will be interesting to see what happens when Sullla and/or Woden passes as well.
That's one mechanic that hasn't come up yet in the PBEMs and has the potential to be a bugged out mess beyond comprehension!

[rho21]

As it happens, I'm sure Sulla will notice that Woden has now hit the Renaissance (so the next scientist will be Industrial), and so will snap up the current one. What does happen if all parties in the game refuse a great person? Does it go away, or are those points just useless from now on?

Anyway, back to the main show. It feels as though Sulla & Singaboy's decision this turn (even a 1 turn delay will result in the VA being finished) will largely determine the course of the rest of the game. Can't remember so much hanging on such a close binary decision in one of these before.  

[Trasson]

Sullla talking about how once they get the VA then everything's going to fall into place is like in every cop movie ever where someone's just two days from a nice peaceful retirement.

[MJW (ya that one)]

I think Sullla is being melodramatic. Why is losing control of the seas an auto-loss on maps other than islands-plates?

[aetryn]

I think Sullla is being melodramatic. Why is losing control of the seas an auto-loss on maps other than islands-plates?

I took it to mean they went from a "very likely to win" position to a "back in the pack" position. I think because of the narrow avenue of approach for land units, it will be difficult to mount an unsupported land invasion on a prepared neighbor, so while not an auto-loss, losing control of the seas is a major setback. England is (theoretically) able to hit them freely and act as an escort for Woden's units to flank Rome, while Rome pretty much has to advance up the isthmus to attack England. Sullla hasn't realized (and maybe can't see enough of the map to know) that a) CMF has most of his production on a different sea and b) was the one civ that couldn't build a canal city because of the map. So he's probably over-worried about England in the near term and also just reacting to bad news. Give him a chance to digest and he'll have a plan.

Do Rome and China have enough of a dominant position economically to be able to defend against a 2 on 1 and race far enough ahead in tech to get a concession? I'm kind of doubtful, but realistic coordination between any two teams is going to be tricky. Would the game even play out if no further war develops or peter out into a draw? Can they safely hit Germany and Russia with local control of the seas and not have England interfere? Actually, I think if they strike hard as soon as they can, they may a window. Even with the newly signed Rome-England DoF runs out, it's likely that CMF will still be fixing his economy and will not be immediately ready for massive naval interventions halfway across the world. But they will have to beat Germany's navy the old-fashioned way, rather than leveraging the VA.

[MJW (ya that one)]

Rome has already bypass the isthmus by taking out Kongo. He has enough space to avoid traffic jams and getting hit by the sea. It's possible for CMF/Woden to fall back to the isthmus by losing the cities on purpose but stuff like that never happens.