[SPOILER] [PB38] OT4E plays this one because lurking around takes too much time

[chumchu]

It is not surprising that he had started working on a spear since a lone axe could be charioted out of the fog. All the better for us.

I think we should press this war if we can. WilliamLP:s power graph indicates that he is doing so. The simultaneous drop in their power could indicate a battle or whipping but I do not know the scale. When did they stat their war btw?

I'm for saving up cash for HBR and communicating our intention to commit to the war to WilliamLP. Taking a city would do just that.

[OT4E]

He checked our positions with warrior. He didnt see entire stack but he could see no sign of chariots. So I think he slaved spear because he had it in prebuild probably since the time he founded the city and started warrior.

I agree that razing a city is a proper sign for our potential ally. I thought about it. So I dont think it is good idea to make peace with OH right now even if we are not going to go forward.

However, I am not sure that we can raze any other city. OH made 6 whips total in the last 2 turns so literally he has whipped every city of his. We have just 5 axes and no more factor of surprise. If we go ahead and step on the flat ground he can start exchanging. IMP civs can get GG just for 3 lucky battles inside of their land and it can turn into real disaster for us.

I believe the civ with 6 cities (he founded 7th this turn) can defend against 6 units. The bird in hand is better imho but lets observe the situation better. Also we need to find out whats William's plan. They indeed killed 1 unit of each other some time ago. I know it because 1 point of WW for each which disapeared 1 turn. But most likely it was scouts or warriors at most. Power graph doesnt show anything more.

[OT4E]

If we are considering moving forward at any cost we must whip chariots. Unfortunately I screwed worker movements and we can only connect horses next turn. Though I have doubts that whipping more units right now is good idea. We need more cities, workers and population to stay competative for thr next phase of the game.

[OT4E]

He constructed the walls and brought 1 more axe in. So 2 axe + spear vs 5 axes, spear and the warrior. I guess we take it...

[OT4E]

Alternatively we can go for the wheat city. But I think he has planted stone and walls will meet us everywhere.

[OT4E]

I made 10 test and I took city in all cases. Even more in 8 of 10 cases the city was falling to just 4 first axes. But this time Sid's smile was really shining to me and I managed to take it without losing anything. This is 9.9%, 23.1% and 88.9% in a row. Wow! Unbelieveable!

[OT4E]

There was an option to move remaining 2 axes and spear to Baldur's gate, but I decided it was bad idea. Unlikely we get 2nd turn of same rate of luck. I wouldnt take risk attacking even a single axe across the river. Also moving forward meant automatically that we lose wounded axe that captured Elite. I think our advantage now is in promotions. We unlikely can send numbers so it is important to have sharp ones.

Also what if we raze it too? Can we keep or replant it? No... So there is no reason to become worst enemy of OH yet. I dont make illusions that we can be friends but I dont expect him to turn into desperate mode just for razing his front city, unappropriate aggressive one.

[chumchu]

Wow! That is some impressive luck.

Keeping the stack together is the safe move. Razing the city is also the safe option. As it stands now we have done significant damage for little cost to us. We have razed/taken a city and killed 4 units with no losses and forced whips everywhere. Should we gamble in this situation?

+ The payoff is huge. It might be necessary with such a payoff to compete with other players eliminating their rivals (DS).
+ OH is at his weakest right now with his cities whipped down before granaries.
+ Later wars will be more expensive as we need to chew through culture, walls and big garrisons.
+ With more cities than us he might outproduce us militarily later on.
+ Pushing at the same time as an other player is ideal

- We have no real army. It can not heal/hold and press on without being to divided.
- Our army is slow and reinforcements are far away. How I wish for numids right now.
- Can we hold the gains against WilliamLP?
- He is weakened and distracted. If we go back to producing settlers/workers we might outgrow him.

I am leaning for pushing the war but I want to keep both options for now. It is best to raze the city and see what we can tell from WilliamLP and OH next turn.

[OT4E]

Thanks, chumchu. All points are good.

I will also add some:
+ we have built some army which will most likely stay idle if we dont go
+ OH will have to whip more to stop our stack
+ OH will be unable to produce wonders (I believe he has hooked stone to build walls, also masonry means he was planning something)

And cons:
-it is not clear what we can gain from this attack. The goals were to slow OH down, remove annoying front and win potential culture war for sheep/marble. All achieved. I believe we can outgrow him. 5 cities against 6 cities for IMP is allright ratio

-killing an opponent of proper skill level is impossible or demands serious mistakes from him or more of such luck we had got this time

-if we and williamLP indeed attack him simulatenous then we would better wait till they go deeper into war. Otherwise OH will play just to drag us down and will not make any resistance to WLP. Of course we will gain nothing in this case.

-more military whips will be destructive for our domestic development. We have a lot of unclaimed land, no need in conquest neither we are ready to use conquared lands.

[OT4E]

I lean to the passive war scenario. So stay at war, bring some chariots in case some opportunities arise (WLP invades OH or OH make some kind of mistake) but make no more actions.

Also for development we need Metal Casting and probably before HBR. We need colossus to avoid cottaging everything. We need forges to drive our production. We need GE for Machinery/Engineering. We need triremes in case OH tries making some pressure on sea.