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While William has tilted, OT4E isn't upset at all. Team Harry is momentarily vulnerable, having reached with those two cities and not having chariots, so attacking them is an option since they're already at war with a second neighbour.
But OT4E will be a bit too slow as Harry can have chariots by t61.
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(April 9th, 2018, 12:35)ipecac Wrote: While William has tilted, OT4E isn't upset at all. Team Harry is momentarily vulnerable, having reached with those two cities and not having chariots, so attacking them is an option since they're already at war with a second neighbour.
But OT4E will be a bit too slow as Harry can have chariots by t61.
Harry will get Immortals,...which means defense bonus? If he can whip walls he'll have defense odds against axes in Elite with full mobility if he can't get through the stack defending spear(s).
I'm also looking at William's "X" spot. That'll be easy forking for 30H immortals. He was just about to plant it before the horses showed up on the other side of his empire. Pretty aggressive given his Axe/warrior army and stacked whip penalty.
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(April 9th, 2018, 11:42)Thorite Wrote: The city is 7-7 tiles away from each capital, so nobody would love it but to trash your economy and declare always-war seems a little over the top.
Well, that does mean that its BFC, and therefore probable border with William, will be at the 9-5 mark. That's fairly aggressive. Losing that much land to a strong player might very well spell William's doom - if he didn't fight now, maybe he's destined to fight FinHarry at horse archers or knights, on their schedule instead of his, after they've grown larger than him? I can definitely understand his choice - better to have an exciting game where you make things happen than just wait 50 turns and become FinHarry's first conquest. I mean, best would have been to grow fast enough that he wouldn't be doomed, but I think he's just acknowledging doom earlier than you would in his shoes given the way the opening played out.
But I think the other piece is that typical mistake of comparing My Planned Army to His Current Army. Lots of people fall into that trap, where they forget to account for what their foe may build in the time it takes for them to get their chosen army built and to the border. At the moment FinHarry planted those cities, they were fairly weak and could have been overrun, presuming William/OT4E had their response armies already built. Which of course they didn't...
If FinHarry hadn't reinforced, then this would turn out much worse for them, as well. But they did reinforce, and they're taking full advantage of all the tactical defense/logistics advantages to being the defender, so this will probably work out for them.
The piece in OT4E's favor is that he declared second, and it appears that William is going to hold a lot of FinHarry's focus and resources. It might still turn out that OT4E can conquer something in this war, specifically because it's a 2v1. I think he only made that decision after William was already at war, so he knew he'd be on the right side of a 2v1 - now he just has to get lucky with timing when he can't coordinate with William.
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To be fair to William, he is pretty much lost as Mardoc points out, so it's not unreasonable that he's pinning his hopes on a dogpile with OT4E.
Something worth noting is that Team Harry's plan would have fallen apart if either neighbour had AH when they planted the stone and marble cities. It was good C&D that confirmed that neither had, and they could plant with little risk.
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I don't know much about civilization 4 multiplayer (never played one!) OH and Rusten stands out of all players at this moment, both played good and strong opening.
However unlike Rusten's neighbors, OH's neighbors didn't take his expansion very well and OH is facing a 2 vs 1 situation now. I am impressed by calmness of OH's team in face of such situation and they might manage without any city losses (whipped axe and walls just in time).
However all that whips and warfare is going damage OH's economy for a bit, so expect to see Rusten enlarge his lead further as long his neighbors don't plan any agression.
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April 12th, 2018, 14:03
(This post was last modified: April 12th, 2018, 14:04 by JR4.)
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(April 12th, 2018, 04:52)Alhambram Wrote: OH's neighbors didn't take his expansion very well and OH is facing a 2 vs 1 situation now. I am impressed by calmness of OH's team in face of such situation and they might manage without any city losses (whipped axe and walls just in time).
Team Finharry is in deep trouble now. The last thing they needed was rotten luck on defense in the border city with OT4E that they just lost. Pretty much everything has gone against them so far, William refusing to accept the Stone city on the border also didn`t help, of course. I agree that they act very calm when lightning strikes. The business-like report the turn after dtay did a commando raid on their capital in PB 13, razing the city, is a good example of their approach to civ. Very impressive indeed. I just think it`s sad that they`re probably not going to see the end of this game, their turn reports are thorough and enjoyable.
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(April 12th, 2018, 13:25)OT4E Wrote: I made 10 test and I took city in all cases. Even more in 8 of 10 cases the city was falling to just 4 first axes. But this time Sid's smile was really shining to me and I managed to take it without losing anything. This is 9.9%, 23.1% and 88.9% in a row. Wow! Unbelieveable!
 That's got to really hurt FinHarry when they see it. If they'd had a more average result, where OT4E lost 2-3 axes and the rest injured, he'd be stuck here, maybe even vulnerable to a counterattack. Now he might be able to take another city after promo-healing, or at least he'll be able to hold what he's taken.
This is one of the times where Pitboss is a real benefit to civility and sanity. The pRNG calculations happening on Caledorn's server instead of OT4E's computer helps eliminate any appearance of impropriety. Taking the long view, it's not surprising that there are some 1-chance-in-25 results happening in a game with 25 players, even if they sting when they do show up.
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(April 12th, 2018, 14:03)JR4 Wrote: I just think it`s sad that they`re probably not going to see the end of this game, their turn reports are thorough and enjoyable.
I think this may not be true. They have just about as many cities as their attackers, the defender's bonuses, a lead in hooking strategics and a relevant UU. And probably tighter micro, and Imperialistic. All that's going against them is luck, really - if it weren't for luck they'd already be stalemated. Sooner or later luck has to turn around.
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(April 12th, 2018, 14:20)Mardoc Wrote: (April 12th, 2018, 14:03)JR4 Wrote: I just think it`s sad that they`re probably not going to see the end of this game, their turn reports are thorough and enjoyable.
I think this may not be true. They have just about as many cities as their attackers, the defender's bonuses, a lead in hooking strategics and a relevant UU. And probably tighter micro, and Imperialistic. All that's going against them is luck, really - if it weren't for luck they'd already be stalemated. Sooner or later luck has to turn around.
You might well be right. They still have some advantages like shorter supply lines and better micro (and the others you mentioned). But they have to find a way of defusing that 2 vs 1 situation. William will surely be very encouraged by the city raze and he`s got a number of Axes on the march.
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