[SPOILERS] Will: Thread title to be decided

[WilliamLP]

And other lurkers, too.  You'll excuse us for not being able to say much.

Thanks for the chirp! And of course, I understand and appreciate how easy it would be to accidentally spoil something even just by tone or word choice.

I've made some moves while reasoning on other players' knowledge and intentions and probable future plans. Which I'm sure has been all across the range from very insightful to hilariously flat-out wrong. It would be extremely easy to influence my play here with just a bit of info.

[Ghostpants]

For what it's worth, I'm watching with interest Go William!
Just can't say too much. I'm very very spoiled on the game. Like Dark Savant, I'm scared it would be accident.

[WilliamLP]

Players, enjoy your metadata.

Well I sure do enjoy myself some good metadata! Elkad is obviously in a scuffle with someone. Perhaps it's some sort of timing or double move dispute with German Joey since he's the only other player who hasn't ended turn? If he (Joey) hasn't changed over the years, I remember he's a very solid player who can also take things personally and go into a rage mode. (It takes one to know one, perhaps. )

I doubt OT4E is involved here, since the jungle between them is a natural barrier.

Really all I can take from this is I don't have to worry much about my southern border right now, or losing ground to an aggressive land grab. Fighting a one-front skirmish vs two fronts for Harry is the big advantage I need in this game.

Now for the single biggest factor in my midgame, I need to wait in suspense to see if I win the 80% roll against the barbarians! It's just totally my fault if I lose the city, I'm prepared for it. I was trying to be far too cute with warriors when one of them should have been just sitting there fortifying.

[WilliamLP]

I think if I look at who the 5-6 most recent posters are in this game, I can tell where the most interesting part of the world is for the lurkers. Are you not entertained?

My heart was pounding to refresh CivStats to see my score change after the "New Turn" email.:

Ah, so there's a thing called "City Barbarian Defense" that adds another 25% to my combat odds, sweet! Still, playing XCom tells me, 95% is not something you want to bet your life on.

More interesting, this far in, there's nowhere I can go but forward:

I only moved the first shock axe so far. There is only 1 axe in colonization right now, and I have odds on it! They are only slightly higher than a coinflip at 10% fortification, but still.

Almost certainly my play is to continue my axe snake, moving them all west. So that, the road from Dragon Age is still blocked, and then, if Harry doesn't take some losing attacks, I can mass up all four axes next to Colonization without giving a chance for reinforcements. I'm kind of proud of how elegant this looks right now! The advantages of Agg and cheap 'racks in the early game are really shown here.

I'm also considering other moves more focused on pillaging the Sheep and Corn and leaving. It's an interesting situation: where I stand to keep the road blocked might also prevent Harry from whipping walls by cutting off supply. If I think I can raze Colonization, that would be a far greater hit to Harry than pillaging two food resources. If I can't raze it, e.g. he has axes out of sight to reinforce, I might be better just pillaging and backing off.

OT4E razed one of Harry's cities, which is a huge development. I'm guessing it's a chariot attack, which would be wonderful because it means Harry needs to divert resources into spears. The fact that Harry has built a spear, means he knows chariots are coming from somewhere.

I now know from the IT thread that it's German Joey to the south of Elkad. This is good for me because Joey is both very solid and very prickly. Going by Elkad's thread title, Joey is surely the one he wants to drag along down with himself.

[WilliamLP]

My play was to cut off his road, to set up to have 4 axes vs whatever Colonization has got:

I guarantee he's not going to be happy about that road cut. Next turn I can pillage the sheep, gather on the hill, and let's see what happens...

Also note Donovan Zoi's W2 scout to the north. I actually had two chances to kill it, but neither would have leveled up a unit so I decided to err on the side of making a new friend.

[WilliamLP]

And finally, the most interesting thing about this position is that Dragon Age cannot build a spear now!! And I'm about to get horses hooked up next turn. Wow I need to log back in and reconsider quick chariots from whip overflow this turn...

I'd love to think I'm smarter than I really am, but I didn't consider before this move how vulnerable Dragon Age would be to chariots.

Edit: I whipped 3 cities, so that I can get a better timing attack off on Dragon Age with chariots. I can put the whip overflow into them next turn when I hook up the horse.

[WilliamLP]

Turn 63 is a tricky one:

- Harry whipped 3 times, an archer in Dragon Age, an immortal in Colonization, and something else.
- It seems pretty safe to assume he hooked up horses last turn or the turn before last. Immortals now shut down the utility of unguarded axes.
- My spear still has yet to move. Obviously I wish I'd microed better so it could be 1-2 turns forward from where it is now.
- My shock axe on the sheep has 50% odds to win against Colonization. My decision tree definitely start there!!
- On principle, my axes are worth a little more than his, and my empire is smaller still, so taking a 50% is to his advantage on the face of it.
- So, this choice depends on whether I think I can raze Colonization if I win.
- Harry moved in two workers. He obviously wants to reconnect Dragon Age.
- Harry still has a higher power rating than me. And to me the worker play suggests he has adequate defenses coming in next turn. I think two more axes would be enough unless I rolled very lucky.
- Harry can hit-and-run with the immortal if I leave an axe on flat land.
- His capital is 4 moves from Colonization so I think it's unlikely he has another immortal which can hit me this turn.
- I have two chariots next turn, one more the turn after that. Also another 2 promotable axes and a spear in home culture.

Possible plans:

1. Yolo, go for the coin flip. If lose, cry and re-evaluate my life. If win, my other 3 axes go SW to threaten the win vs colonization while cutting off Harry reconnecting Dragon Age. (Axes on a forest
2. Pillaging plan. Axe eats the sheep, yum. This is a very large loss over time for OH, much higher than the cost of one axe surely. He's still a pain to dislodge from the hill. Other 3 axes move SW or S to stop the worker plays. SW leaves open the option to attack, but I'd be -1 axe from the immortal with no retaliation. S means I could offer the spear onto the hill, either removing an axe from Dragon age or him allowing it to join my axe stack.
3. Blocking plan. All four axes join 1W of Dragon Age. Spear moves onto the hill to force Harry to lose a forward axe if he wants to cut it off. All four axes 2W of Dragon Age on the road is possible too.
4. GTFO. Retreat and consolidate. I probably still pillage the sheep.

Right now, thinking of pillage sheep, 3 axes move south to block workers, spear moves to the hill. The most valuable thing I could get out of this attack is to take Dragon Age assisted by chariots. This way I'd lose an axe for free but the remaining are covered by a spear and can stick around longer term instead of being picked off 1 at a time by immortals.

[WilliamLP]

One opportunity I've missed: I know Harry is the game leader in soldier count, I should be noting it every turn, to get a real-time view of his power to infer from.

Putting the workers in Colonization is a very optimistic play. It makes me feel like I cannot raze the city, he must have a combination of chariots + axe defenders to make it a loss for me.

Looking at Civstats:

Turn 62: 3 whips: chariot, archer, ?
Turn 61: City lost. Horse hooked. No whips.
Turn 60: 2 whips

The other chariot he could have had from a whip T62 will not be in range yet, I don't think.

Turn 61 is such a wildcard though! That what when he knew I had 4 axes advancing to getting chariots ASAP would have been his priority.

The key question here is, how much of a strike force of chariots does Harry have in range now? Single whipping one means he has had horses for two turns now, which means he could have 1-turned them with whip overflow or chops.

So do I want to play as if he could kill 2-3 axes with chariots this turn? I think so. Though it could be a missed opportunity if he has less, it also means I'm not going to get absolutely crushed next turn.

So, conservative play it is. I gathered with my spear, and pillaged. Taking the coinflip loses the axe even on the win, so not worth it. Moving NE would force Harry to trade an immortal for it, but I think the sheep is worth a lot to him. The axe has some odds on the immortal defending on the hill, about 22% I think.

The advantage of this play is he's not going to be able to kill more than one axe next turn, and I'm in it for the long war. It does allow him to reconnect along the corn if he wishes. But the zone between Dragon Age and Colonization is going to be a problem for him nearly forever now that I have an axe/spear stack in there. I really don't want a spear in Dragon Age.

[WilliamLP]

As expected, my pillager axe is dead and Harry re-connected Dragon Age.

Moved one axe in:

4 Immortals! So my read that it was time to fall back was the correct one.

Without thinking enough I moved my other two axes NE onto the forest, and the spear to guard the lone axe. He can likely beat this but by committing three axes to it and losing one. He's going to sweat only losing one axe though, but sadly I can't really retaliate if he does that, too many immortals.

So somehow he managed to repel me and reconnect the stone. Nice play!

Wars like this really show how big a deal one extra turn is, for almost everything.

Now I have to think defensively about the mass immortals, and whether I can settle the NW hill city soon. I need to guard it with at least two spears I think.

[WilliamLP]

So my attack is over. I gathered on the forested road tile in defensive position and offered peace. Of course, "peace" is a very relative term here.

My best defense of why this war was justified:

I'm happy enough with the war effort at the end, even with the lack of tangible gains. My proudest points are engineering a dogpile without diplo, and saving two axes (or any units at all) from this attack. I could have saved a spear too but I thought to trade it for an axe Harry would need to lose. I should have saved the spear and let the axe just die for free, in retrospect.

I'm ready to play more expansive Civ 4 again if Harry is. His whip unhappiness may be becoming quite a problem!