Woden's and Chevalier Mal Fet's [Insert Clever Name Here] Team Thread

[WiseSanta]

And the Cultural Victory goes to... CMF!

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Non-joke Turn 131

So I slept on it, and I'm pretty sure that the game is indeed over from this point on. I just can no longer find any realistic path to victory for Woden and I. Let me do a quick report on my turn, and then let's talk about our bunker strategy.




I finally reveal Niter as part of my push to steel. Where, again, are my sources?

1 third ring at Actium.

1 third ring at Jutland.

And 1 third ring at the former Khmer city in the tundra (now renamed "Hampton Roads"). 

oh. neat. 

I mean, I guess it could be worse - there could be NONE anywhere near my borders. But man, Cornflakes, you certainly didn't want to give me an easy time with my strategics, eh? My second source of horses on an island, the only second source of iron necessitating a settle on another team's continent, and now this niter situation. Bet I'd unlock coal, oil, and aluminum to find my lands overflowing with those, though?   I tease, it hasn't been too big a deal because of the way the game is going, but dang! 




Here's my new southern colonies. Cape St. Vincent, the former Geneva, is working on repairs still, then walls and ships. Hampton Roads will finish its one district, a dockyard, then roads and ships. I'll try and get traders out where I can. 




I wasted a turn here in the west. Chopped out the builder at Leyte instead of the ships at Actium because I'm stupid and forgot to swap the tile back to the proper city before chopping. So Leyte gets to work on ships. Actium will just spam ships from now on, it's fine. Ditto Jutland and Lepanto, once I swap their builds. I need more builders from Trafalgar to harvest every crab, every stone, every tree, every cow, every single harvestable resource I can. We'll scorch our lands to the barren earth building our defenses. 




Same story here. Need to swap Aboukir to military builds. 

Farewell, building plan! I think it had a real shot ot make my civ competitive again! In fact, Woden and I had already passed Russia/Germany again - higher combined science (dwarfed by Rome/China), and much higher combined culture (about tied with Rome/China). We beat them in every demographic category except gold income. Of course, Rome/China likewise beat us in every demographic category except culture, which makes Archduke* or Emperor's decision to side with them instead of us all the more baffling. 

So, why do I think the game is over?

Well, Molotov-Ribbentrop have played right into Sullla/Singaboy's hands. Their strategy for the last 50 turns has been simple and direct: With superior technology and production established, thanks to their head-and-shoulders above the rest economic skills, they lock down frontiers with DoFs or alliances and then go after the weakest target available. Absorb, process, repeat. Woden and I were going to short-circuit that process by refusing a renewed DoF and piling into them when they went after Germany next. It was a real chance to mire them in a losing war and give BOTH weaker teams a chance to catch up. Hell, in an extreme scenario, we could even have won outright - If Archduke could beat Singaboy's weak navy and attack his coasts, if I could sink most of Sullla's ships before they became Battleships...It wasn't likely, but it wasn't impossible. 

However, Archduke doesn't see things that way. I'm not sure I can articulate his mindset, because frankly I really don't know what he is thinking. More on that in a minute. The more immediate fact is, whether he was panicked, whether he's already given up and just wants to lose last, whatever, Singaboy and Sullla now have a DoF with the OTHER team, and will turn their attentions upon us. 

This, I think, will be the game-ending move. There's no way for Woden and I to defend our broad front against the full weight of Singaboy and Sullla's civs. They have equal tech to us - for now - but the war will start right on the cusp of the next generation of military tech. I can field muskets, knights, and crossbows against probable cavalry and field cannons. In other words, my land army, as it has been all game, is totally useless. Woden will hopefully have field cannons, but those will be pinned into a holding action. At sea, it's a little better - Square Rigging is mine whenever I want it, as is Press Gangs. Quads are cheaper, though. I'll probably start the upgrade process in 8 turns or so? Give me some time to maneuver. I can be competitive here until Steel, and even a bit past that depending on how many ships Sullla brings against me. Ironclads...well, I'll get those eventually, too. Can't have everything - I have to use my limited science as best I can. 

Anyway, once Singaboy and Sullla push even as far as Leyte and Actium, even if we somehow manage to hold them at the chokepoints there, they'll have twice the land as any other team - as much land as the other two teams combined, even. Ultimately, our land and sea forces will be whittled away, and we will lose. Nan Madol will go early - I can't hold it against a determined Roman assault. Hell, I'm nervously watching Singaboy's envoy count, it'd be enough just to lose suzerainty. Sending envoys to Geneva was a mistake, shoulda just razed it when Woden wanted to, but at the time I really thought we could compete long-term if we played our cards right. I was playing to win at that point, not for second place. Anyway, once they conquer Khmer, that's certainly the game. 

So, farewell to building. From here on out, it's scorched earth for me. I'll swap into Limes at my next policy swap and start cranking up the walls as high as they'll go. I'll also go all quadriremes, all the time, apart from Navarino's CH. I can get out another wave or so before Square Rigging is in. Then I'll just go to Press Gangs and pump out frigates. Trafalgar will pump out builder after builder, and I'll chop gold and production as much as I can - lower priority on food, I'll do that only if I have spare charges after I've razed every forest, jungle, stone, crab, and copper in sight. Build my war chest as high as it will go, then grab Bastions and Professional Army and upgrade and dig in. Last stand mode.

So what was the Archduke thinking? I really can't fathom it. 

1)He panicked. He was under pressure from the Roman/Chinese combined force. Maybe my 'helpful' scouting backfired here and intimidated him into taking peace at any price. He doesn't care about winning any more, he just wants to be second-place because he figures that's all he can achieve now. If that's what he decided, then we may as well call the game here because there's no way anyone but Rome/China will win with that mindset. 

2)He somehow thinks he'll be able to build??? while Rome/China eat us? The thinking here sort of makes sense if you squint. Get Rome/China bogged down and building military units, while he repeats his feat with the Kongo/Khmer war and leaps a generation ahead in development. The trouble with that sort of thinking is a)it didn't work last time. Woden and I did NOT have 100 turns of uninterrupted peace to lay out Hansas and Lavras exactly as we'd like them, and yet we've STILL once again surpassed the two in almost every category (seriously, check out my culture rate. 20 points ahead of the nearest competitor! Too bad it means nothing now :P). War slows you down in the short term, but then you pull ahead as you incorporate the new land. b)Singaboy and Sullla won't be bogged down enough, I think. They will almost certainly be able to win in Khmer, and it's an open question whether I can hold my isthmus cities (I give myself 40% odds to hold there). 

3)He and Emperor will join in????????? This one is even more incomprehensible than the last one. Okay, so you've got 3 teams left. One is winning and has been winning all game. The other two alternate places, but are generally well-matched. #2 is going to go up against #1, and you can pick your side...and you pick #1??? What? How does that make sense in any universe? You'll be able to conquer so much more land from us that you'll be able to beat Rome/China one-on-one afterwards? What? That's so obviously idiotic I can't believe this is their choice. 

But really, NONE of the options make sense. They all seem obviously foolish to me. Now, obviously I don't have Archduke's perspective. I'm not an omniscient lurker, like you guys. I could be missing something really freakin' obvious here. But from my own limited perspective, it looks like Archduke has badly misread the strategic situation somehow, OR he's just given up and is playing for second place, instead of playing to win. 

That's the really frustrating thing about multiplayer. The joy of it is that you have a chaotically interacting set of multiple actors, all with their own goals, perspectives, resources, worries, desires, personal hang-ups and obsessions, etc. The annoying part is that  you have a chaotically interacting set of multiple actors, all with their own goals, perspectives, resources, worries, desires, personal hang-ups and obsessions, etc. I've done everything I can to put our team in a position to win this thing, knowing all the time that I was playing against people who are way over my head, and just as I think I've done a decent job someone over on the other side of the map kicks my whole sandcastle over for reasons of his own. 

I wouldn't mind the Archduke kicking over my sandcastle if doing so helped him win in some way. Them's the breaks, nothing personal. But this move doesn't help him at all! It just seems purely spiteful, designed to make sure that his team comes in second and not third - while we were offering him a chance to win the whole thing! You can't plan around opposing moves like that. You gotta assume your opponents will do the rational thing.

Well, maybe there will be a miracle in 30 turns. Woden, maybe we should offer an alliance to Singaboy/Sullla. What the hell, right?   All they can do is say no! But if they say yes, hell, maybe we still have a game! Since it gives us a 1% chance not to lose, versus the virtual 100% chance all other options offer, I say we take it!

*I think that Archduke is mostly in the driver's seat over there. He's more experienced than Emperor and updates his threads a lot more often, so from henceforth I'm going to act as  if this was all Archduke's idea and heap obloquy on his head. Don't correct me if this is unfair, I still need catharsis here!

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

War plans: I like the idea of planting a canal city and uniting my navy in the eastern ocean. However, note that you'd need to gift me the other two canal cities. For those of you unaware, a ship can't enter land, ever. The AI pathing accordingly doesn't route through cities, because they're "land." However, ships CAN enter cities, and once in the city can choose to exit either way. But that means you can only use a city as a canal if you can legally enter it - ie no other ships inside, and the city has to belong to you.

That's why I was fixated on the canal city of Genoa over on Sullla's side (I think that's the right one, need to consult a map again). There's two canals over there, thanks to Kongo. One, though, is split between Roman and Chinese cities, and thanks to our city-gifting rules Rome can't ever take the northern city back. So Sullla's only canal is the northern, self-founded passage.

I like the idea of razing Emperor's city. We could see something where Nubian units strike into Russian territory while English ships pour into the other ocean to take, burn, or sink every ship they can and pillage and plunder German and Chinese coastal cities. At least we'd do some damage before going down. Of course, we'd be fighting 3 nations' forces, and fighting DotF and hell maybe even Crusade...so it's a bit unrealistic. But it's a nice dream.

The other option is a holding action. I don't intend to sit passively with my navy and wait to be struck. On land I could try and drag out the campaign, as Cornflakes did, at sea I want to go on the offensive and pin Sullla/Singaboy/Archduke/Emperor's forces back to defending their own cities. There's a few vulnerable spots I could try to hit, including Emperor's tundra cities. Every city taken gets me a melee unit! (remember that ability? Literally every city I own is somehow on the same continent, because Fortune decided that Trafalgar would be in the middle of the largest damn continent in the game, that for some reason covers TWO full continents. It's the same situation pindicator had in PBEM5, only it sucks for me 'coz I'm England. Sucks to my assmar, though, that's the chance you take when you choose a civ that has continental bonuses).

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Quick turn report, full one later hopefully:

1)Every city that wasn't working on a ship, builder, or dockyard, now is. And I'm not sure about the dockyards. 
2)I am counting up how many choppable resources there are to see how many ships I can chop in the coming turns.  Answer: lots. We'll have our dozen frigates in the western sea, easy, and I'm going to burn both Santa Cruz charges to get a pair of armadas to go with my frigate fleet. No time for Sea Dogs, sadly. Sir Francis Drake will take over as admiral. Sun Yat-Sin I might even burn district projects to recruit to grab his ironclads. Who needs steam power? :D

[Woden]

Turn report will be up later today but wanted to say that I think we can do alright here in the coming turns. My hope is that we can make attacking us by Russia/Germany a losing proposition and they will turn their attention back to China after Rome/China attack us and their forces are not by the their border region. I suppose this whole ordeal is just Karma coming back to ht me for betraying oledavy in PBEM4 but of coarse oledavy went on to win that game so I don't know what karma is thinking.

I just realized I still had my great Scientist and played a little boost roulette to see if I could grab boosts for Industrialization, Ballistics, and/or Siege Tactics and save me some science, gold, and/or production. I ended up getting Industrialization, Siege Tactics, and Steam Power. Two out of Three ain't bad plus Steam Power is huge. I was hoping more for Ballistics so I don't have to waste production on an engineer but I do save a little gold from not having to upgrade Bombards right now. I will be able to finish Industrialization in 2 turns and can hit Steam Power after Military Tactics before heading to Steel. This should give you a fully boosted path to Steam Power and Steel in the end.

Not sure about passing all my canal cities to you. For one thing, I have not been able to pass through your cities as I move units to the western front, so would this basically block me off for moving against Russia? I guess I will have to test this out. I have some options to increase my defensive strength of my coastal cities and will get into it more in my turn report, as well as some other tactical plans. I do think we still raze the Russia city even if we can't get a true canal for your ships. I am not going to pull sending you my canal cities off the table yet, I still need to chew on it.

[Woden]

Nubia-Turn 132

Start off the turn with a few new envoys...

I put 1 into Nan Madol for a little more culture and 1 into Bandar Brunei for more gold. Income now surges to 86.9. It is going to come down a bit as I produce more and more units but it is nice to get some upgrade money in the mean time. 
 
I move the builder up at Osiris to mine a grassland hill and notice the Great Scientist sitting on the campus. I was meaning to use him after I mined the Niter last turn but forgot. Time to play some boost roulette...

Screenshot for Industrialism didn't take but I did get Industrialism, Siege Tactics, and Steam Power. I wanted to do this now, knowing I can get the boosts for Siege Tactics and Ballistics in the near future to see if I can forgo those items to save production and gold. My main hope was Industrialism as it would be near impossible to get 3 workshops going anytime soon, especially with the military build up. After that, anything was gravy. Sanitation would have also been nice as 2 neighborhoods will be hard to get but it will be a while before I reach that tech. Steam Power was a huge get, since I don't think CMF has time or production to quickly get 2 shipyards out. I could be wrong and he is planning on it but I can still send him the boost if I go for Steam Power after Military Science. I will need to get a Ironclad anyways for the boost to Steel. 

Here is my core...

Not much to talk about. Every city is working on necessary builds. I will go for the settler after the engineer at Isis, otherwise every other city will go to military builds once their current build is finished. A lot of my cities should be able to 3 turn horseman and crossbows after Industrialization finished. 

One thing to note about alliances, they do reveal the map of each player, but only on the turn the alliance is signed...

Since we already had an alliance with Germany/Russia when they signed one with Rome/China, they have most of the map revealed to them but we still have a bunch of fog in the Rome/China mainland.  

Here are my western holdings...

Settler will finish naturally in 2 turns, then I will chop the walls into a builder and start a 2nd settler which will be chopped out and then probably start pumping crossbows at Ma'at to be chopped into builders or something. The first new city will go to the northern spot and I will implement a scorched earth policy of chopping every last tree. Same for the second city. That should give me enough faith to get most of my border towns to level 3 walls plus some other infrastructure. I am also going to harvest anything that can be at Ma'at and Hathor. No point in leaving anything for Rome/China. 

Looking at the north east sea, I spy Germany's navy making its way over to me...

That is going to be a bunch of Frigates coming my way. My cities should have a city strength of 71 by the time war comes if I run Bastions, more if I place a Calvary in them. Frigates have an attack strength of 55, so I will have a 16 point strength difference advantage. I should be able to withstand a few shots. If I can get some Field Cannons around my coastal cities, I should fairly well against his ships. I know they added a penalty in land vs naval units but not sure who get penalized. My initial thought is that naval units get penalized against land units but unsure. Does anybody know about this. It was added in the last patch to the vanilla game (or maybe the patch before, I don't remember). I guess it will be another thing I will need to test.    

One good thing is this...

Most of Germany's land units are on their east coast and will probably stay there to keep China in check. Even if they move west, I am not sure they can make it to my borders by the time they can declare war. I also not sure if Russia will be at Cossacks by T142. He is behind me in tech rate and I will only just get to Military Science. Of coarse, I am researching Industrialization right now, while he could be on the bottom of the tree, so he could be there by then, IDK, I guess we will find out soon enough.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Full update later tonight.

Current ship count: 20 quadriremes and climbing at a rate of 4 a turn or so. At this point I think I might go ahead and upgrade to Square Rigging, since it seems gold, not production, will be the main bottleneck.

[Woden]

Nubia-Turn 133

Bonus turn today.

I put Humanism back in last turn to be able to policy swap this turn. I was going to hold off so I could get limes out after my last bit of walls were done but no time to waste. I finish...

Then a policy swap...

I hate taking out Meritocracy and losing all the culture but I need military more and want to start building crossbows ASAP. 
At Isis, I removed the pasture on one of the sheeps last turn and this turn...

130 should be enough for 1, if not 2, population. After the harvest, the city showed no growth and I realized the city doesn't have a granary...

Another 65 from Valletta. Now the city shows it will grow again next turn. I also chop out the walls at Ptah and overflow into a campus. I will switch to a crossbow next turn once the overflow is locked and chop into that to finish the campus and a library. 

I also buy a missionary at Ma'at...

I am going to send this guy back to my core. I am not sure 1 missionary will convert Taueret and may need more charge from another missionary. Then, this guy will go to Ptah so I can buy another university. The first missionary has arrived at Trauret and I start to convert it...

I am only getting 1 population converted per charge and the city is at 7 population, so after the missionary is used I will be 1 population short of being converted, hence the new missionary. I will have a bunch of faith coming in the next 3 turns to by a library and university if I am so lucky as to get a conversion out of the city.

Techwise...

I have the path to Steel all boosted and can get Steel boosted if I finish Steam Power and upgrade my lone galley by Valletta. I will reveal coal and hopefully can get the other half of the boost easily. I am keeping my fingers crossed that all my coal is not under a city or district and I can get a mine on one source. Industrialization finishes next turn, then on to Metal Casting and Siege Tactics. Then Military Science and Ballistics. I shoudl be there right about the time our alliance with Russia and Germany ends.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Woden, great news on your techs! Those are perfect for me. I'd love the boost for Steam Power. That and Steel are the last two key naval techs for me.

I also think that we should hold off on canal cities. It's a big chunk of your empire, and I can't see any pressing need to send all my southern ships into that ocean - Singaboy's navy is a threat, true, but not a big enough one to warrant a massive investment like that. My ships might be better served, after razing Emperor's city, to travel down the coast hitting the Russian tundra plants. We can definitely make Emperor hurt.

But before I get to that, I guess I need to report my turn, because there was one major clue to Team Molotov-Ribbentrop's intentions that I left out:




Archduke sent me a 29 turn timer...in other words, the time until his alliance with Sullla expires.

Okay, so this is still baffling to me. I guess they really DID think "okay, we're not ready for war NOW, but in 30 turns, boy, watch out!" I just don't get that reasoning. They had the ships, now. They had the money, now. They had a ready ally, now. In 30 turns, Cossacks will be aging rapidly, Battleships will be near, Infantry will be near, Artillery and Observation balloons will be close - like, Sullla's tech rate is so far in advance that the best shot waas obviously to fight now with relative tech parity. Not after he builds his tech advantage for another 30 turns! Maybe Archduke thinks he can compete, but what about Emperor? His science rate is dead last in the game, far enough behind that Woden and I have a higher combined research rate. Plus, where is Archduke going to get the extra science? He's filled up his continent with cities, and he's filled his cities up with campuses. Finally, to top things off, he has no way to assist Woden and I in a war with Team Empire.

Still, the news that we may not have a 2-front war is welcome. If we've just got one front against the Romans and Chinese...well, it'll be rough. China has the faith-drafted army, I can't afford to modernize my own paltry land forces (should never have built those, for the thousandth time), and we'll be facing Cavalry and potentially battleships with field guns and frigates. A tough fight, and our own chances of winning are very slim. Maybe we can make it hurt. Maybe.

Anyway, I sound Archduke out further, offering a resource trade in return:




I still think the game is 95% in the bag for Sullla and Singaboy, but maybe we can toss the dice and hope for a miracle. Let's play this out.

At home, my chopping frenzy continues. We'll make this as painful for Rome as possible:




We have 12 quads gathered around Actium and Jutland. 2 more are due next turn. 2 more the turn after that. And so on. That's not counting Midway, which will ahve 5 forest/stone chops for ships when it's founded. The city will be crap after that, but fuckit. Lepanto, also, has 3 chops of its own to contribute. Our frigate swarm will grow and grow, and we'll field 1 fleet and 2 armadas with it, backing the whole affair with a Great Admiral. With +3 combined movement, too, we'll rapidly outpace Sullla's own ships. It's a confined sea, but I should be able to claim first strike. I'll maneuver as best I can to claim that, and then we will aim to smash the Roman fleet in one decisive blow, if possible. The follow-up strike - or even, possibly, the initial strike if Sullla gives me an opening - will be at Genoa. We raze that city, and Sullla is down to 2 harbors on this entire ocean. We raze that city, and this ocean is mine. That will shut down half the enemy offensive against us.




here's the rest of the empire. We're up to 8 quads in the southern ocean, with 4 more next turn.

[Woden]

Awesome news with TheArchduke. Either he got cold feel and realized signing the Alliance was a mistake or he was planning on using this time to get China/Rome distracted against us before he attacks. Not sure if I 100% trust them and will keep some units near my core but now will start sending units west and plan on a massive fight in the west.