[Spoilers] Suboptimal - Welcome to the Tlachtli of Blunders!

[suboptimal]

The current luxury bonus is +1. I could boost that to +2 by putting a plantation on the incense at Welcome (the city will take the tile next turn, IIRC) instead of a builder charge into the Encampment.

The implied answer to your question is that the Egypt attack succeeds. My current order of battle should be enough for Barrayar, which would get me an additional +1 luxury bonus as it's settled directly on citrus. I'm also not attacking that city across a river. For the attack on Beta Colony the Eagle Warriors from Barrayar would cross the river up there before heading down and I'd keep the archers to the west of the river. Any help from the south can end run the river and approach from the SE.

I'll rerun some numbers on the alternative plan (or two) during my lunch break. I'll also get up some shots of the targets this evening for invasion planning.

[TheArchduke]

I would take the incense, then.

You assume that Egypt will not rush defenders, upgrade to archers or other nastiness. Whilst I agree that city walls and masonry might only pop up at the capital, I would err on the side of caution.

[suboptimal]

OK...the original idea was to do the following:

Begin: Battering Ram (50) -> Settler (57) -> Eagle Warrior (61) -> Archer (65)
Cant: Eagle Warrior (46) -> Settler (54) -> ?

This uses a policy change from Urban Planning to Colonization when State Workforce completed, then out of Colonization when Political Philosophy completed.  The completion turns might be off by one or two, but that's the idea.  After looking at an alternative, I've got:

Begin: Eagle Warrior (47) -> Eagle Warrior (50) -> Scout (52) -> Archer (55) -> Settler (60)
Cant: Eagle Warrior (46) -> Battering Ram (52) -> Archer (57) -> ?

I'd put in Colonization when I complete Politicial Philosophy in this case.  I should know by Turn 55 or so how Egypt is going and can slot in more military or a second settler at Cant once the archer completes.  Begin's first Eagle Warrior would head north for the battle, the second will go up to Cant to farm builders and act as a reserve force.  The scout goes east to find everyone else.  Cant's Eagle Warrior might do a quick builder capture while the ram completes, then escort that up to Beta Colony. I might slip a discounted Campus build in before the archer as I can always upgrade and send the existing slinger north if I need it.

This plan also gets Begin and Cant to size 4 and keeps them there except for three turns back to 3 pop at the capital.

Delaying the settlers until the late 50's is the right call here, for sure, even if I don't need the extra forces at Beta Colony.

[TheArchduke]

Sounds very good.

Look at it this way. You can build more then 2 settlers at your leisure when Egypt is done.

[suboptimal]

Turn 44

We now pause from our conquering program for researching and building.  Masonry completes.  The warrior at Begin the Begin has approached the slinger I’ve moved out of the city and into the forest.  The horseman at Welcome has moved….SW out of my borders.  Alrighty then.  Working north to south...

Up at Harborcoat the builders move to the iron and the cattle, with the latter getting its pasture repaired.  In looking at the city I learned that a pillaged improvement that provides housing does so even when pillaged.  That’s….interesting?  Inconsistent?  No matter.  I fortify the Eagle Warriors in place to heal.  At Welcome I continue moving the Eagle Warrior to the city.  This might get a little dicey given the Eagle Warrior’s health (43/100) but we’ll see what happens here. If the horse attacks I should be able to kill it next turn.  I leave the slinger in the city for the time being.  

Cant Get There From Here has grown in population.  The new citizen was auto-assigned to the 1/3 tile, which is where I was going to put it anyway.  I lock it in place, just in case.  The extra population will speed the city’s expansion to the other bananas; that is now due in four turns.  I bring the slinger west to start coming back to the city.  Don’t want to put myself in a position that gives away my location to the others just quite yet. 

Down at Begin the Begin the slinger plinks the barbarian warrior for some damage (23, I think).  I expect the warrior will attack next turn, at which point I’ll retreat to the city.  Builder heads for Cant, will be at the bananas the turn after next. Irrigation shows one turn, Writing shows 2 turns.  I was going to pillage but there’s a hitch – I’ve got 7.6 overflow that would be a shame to lose and if I pillage I believe it’s gone.  The mine will wait for my return trip and the Eagle Warrior moves on the camp now.  I’ll spend the next two turns crossing rivers and attack the camp from its east.  I select Irrigation as the tech and will complete Writing after that.  When I get to it the pillage will get put into either Iron Working or Currency.

In international news, RFS-81 has started to build a Holy Site 2 tiles SE of Beta Colony.

[suboptimal]

Battle Plans

I usually get into trouble when I put one of these posts together, but I figured I’d do it again for old time’s sake (and for input). 

Timing

The Eagle Warriors at Harborcoat should be healed up in 4-5 turns.  I’ll shuffle them around once the unit in the city is fully healed to speed up that process, then bring them east.  What happens at Welcome to the Occupation will depend upon the barbarian situation – I need to extinguish the camp before I move on Egypt.  I hope to have that buttoned up in 5-6 turns, though that may be optimistic.  Call it 1-2 turns to heal up the Eagle Warrior and let’s say I move out on Turn 52.  That would have my units at Barrayar’s doorstep on Turn 56.

I’ll have Political Philosophy completed around Turn 55, so I’ll be in Oligarchy when I’m ready to attack.  With incense connected at Welcome that will have the Eagle Warriors attacking at 34 strength and the archers attacking at 27 strength (10 vs. a city).  I’ll also complete Military Tradition during or just after the attack on Barrayar.

Battle Plan – Barrayar



This is how the formation would set up to attack.  I might take some damage from a ranged unit in the city but I’ll lead in with the Tortoise-promoted Eagle Warriors.  The flatland archers (the two adjacent to the oasis) will most likely move and shoot on the same turn for some XP.  The following turn with three archer attacks followed by three Eagle Warrior attacks the city should fall.  If the city builds walls I should be able to get through them in a turn or two even without a battering ram.  In this instance I’d work the two eastern Eagle Warriors around the city to get one across the river to put the city under siege.

Battle Plan – Beta Colony



I expect walls to be up here, but that shouldn't slow things down too much.  On the other hand the terrain is atrocious to move through.  Once Barrayar falls I’ll cross the river with three Eagle Warriors, stop to heal up, then move on Beta Colony.  Tortoise warriors would lead the northern advance.  The northern Eagle Warrior would get rotated in only if I run into problems. 

Thoughts, Archduke?

[TheArchduke]

Turn 44

In international news, RFS-81 has started to build a Holy Site 2 tiles SE of Beta Colony.

Good MM as always.

And it seems RFS-81 has not grasped the seriousness of the situation, probably lulled into a false sense of security by your past 2 PBEMs. Show him how wrong he is.

Your battle plan is solid, yeah the capital is not the weak point, the other city is. Even the palace guard is something you want to avoid and if he is down to 1 city, his options to fight back become very limited.

[suboptimal]

Turn 45

Open the save to a few notifications.  I’ve gotten the inspiration for Mercenaries by finishing the Eagle Warrior at Cant, my slinger at Begin was attacked (as expected) and my slinger can be promoted. Not stated is the fact that Irrigation has completed – I had queued Writing up right after it and I guess in hotseat mode queued techs finish silently.

Mundane stuff first.  Builder mines the iron at Harborcoat, netting me the eurekas for Wheel and Iron Working.  That cuts the production time for the granary to 12 turns remaining.  The city will be expanding to the stone tile in 10 turns, though I’ll need to keep an eye on that as I expect it to flip flop between the stone and the cows.  The builder I used to mine the iron will harvest the marsh in two turns then stay put and wait to quarry the stone for extra production (or pasture the cattle ).  

Over at Cant the Eagle Warrior heads east.  I’ll use this to try to capture the warrior from Brussels while the battering ram is built.  The builder moves into the city’s territory and will move onto the bananas next turn.  The timing here works ut well as I’ll have a plantation in 2 turns and the adjacent bananas will be claimed in 3 turns.  The Eagle Warrior at Preslav crosses the first of two rivers.  I’d attack from here but the spearman actually has the higher strength from this position.



I was going to retreat the slinger at Begin but with the promotion available, the fact it’s sitting in forest and the amount of damage it can do to the barbarian warrior I decide to attack rather than wait.  The unit is at no risk of death and I’d rather get this over with.  The barbarian is under 40 damage and will die next turn.

The touchy situation is at Welcome – the horseman has advanced and put itself between the slinger and the Eagle Warrior.  The slinger attacks for 31 damage and a promotion.  The Eagle Warrior could attack and lose about half its remaining damage in the process.  However, the horseman won’t die and that puts the unit at risk.  I fortify in place.  That’ll heal 10 damage and make my unit strength 25 or 26 against the horseman’s 15.  

In order to keep my microplanning orderly here I need to move the builder to the forest next turn – two chops for three units and a bunch of overflow into the Encampment and a granary, while a plantation, a farm repair, two mines and charging the district is the order of business for the other 3-charge builder.  

Internationally there are no changes of note.  I’ve moved into first place in culture; since the “leaders” in civics have four that means I’m leading in cultural generation.    Still a little behind in science, but that will change over the next several turns.  RFS-81 must be having all sorts of barbarian trouble – his military power was at 80 just two turns ago and it’s dropped to 69.  The garrison that was in Barrayar has disappeared.  I need to be ready to deal with barbarians when I move on the city.  Hopefully it’s not a horse camp.  

Gifts for the Tlatoani

Builders Captured: 5
Value: 290
Improvements Made: 4
District Boosts: 0
Chops: 0
Craftsmanship Inspiration, Wheel Eureka, Iron Working Eureka (20, 100)

[suboptimal]

Turn 46

Open the save to find a notification that my slinger at Begin was attacked by a barbarian.  Both it and the attacking warrior are redlined.  Up at Welcome the horseman has suicided itself against the Eagle Warrior.  Internationally RFS-81 has lost another 5 military power and is down to 64.  Barrayar has a garrison strength of 11, so something is back in the city.  Nothing else interesting on the international front.  

At Harborcoat one builder moves to the marsh, the other heads for Welcome.  I do one bit of micromanagement up here and reassign a citizen from the marsh to one of Harborcoat’s coast tiles.  Until the granary completes there’s no point in getting that much excess food, I’ll be at the -100% housing penalty when I harvest the marsh next turn and I can use the extra god per turn.  Once the marsh is harvested the extra population will work the other coastal tile.  I’ll change that back to a higher food yield once the granary completes and the city can grow to size 5 without issue.

The slinger and builder at Welcome move SW to the forest and the Eagle Warrior moves into the city to heal over the next few turns.  The builder will chop the forest next turn for the Eagle Warrior and Encampment overflows.  At Cant the builder moves to the bananas, slinger returns to the city and the Eagle Warrior moves to the hill that the slinger was on.  Kill the barbarian warrior at Begin with the slinger, cross the river next to the barbarian camp and the turn’s over.

Begin the Begin and Harborcoat will gain population next turn.  Writing still shows two turns until completion (?) but State Workforce will complete next turn.  

Forgot to include the Irrigation and Masonry eurekas in the prior post, so here’s the updated info.  

Builders Captured: 5
Value: 290
Improvements Made: 4
District Boosts: 0
Chops: 0
Craftsmanship Inspiration, Irrigation, Masonry, Wheel, and Iron Working Eurekas (20, 165)

[TheArchduke]

Milpower of 64?

Someone is totally oblivious it seems. I would go full monty on him soon.