[SPOILERS - NO PLAYERS] The Final Clusterfuck: The PB38 Map and Lurker Thread

[darrelljs]

So are the four top contenders right now Rusten, mackoti, dtay and TBS?

Darrell

[scooter]

So are the four top contenders right now Rusten, mackoti, dtay and TBS?

Darrell

Seems that way, but I dont think OH/Fin are necessarily out of it yet. They're definitely behind, but overall they have weak neighbors and no real threats near them, so conditions are prime for them to go on a mid-game storm. Obviously they're still behind the lead four.

[Mardoc]

So are the four top contenders right now Rusten, mackoti, dtay and TBS?

Darrell

Mostly agreed from what I've seen.

I think I might add GermanJoey to the top group, even though we haven't seen any hard evidence, just based on past performance plus neighboring OT4E, Elkad and Donovan.  OT4E isn't a great neighbor, except that he's already been damaged and focused toward FinHarry. Similarly, Donovan is probably not a great neighbor either, but he's focused on filling out ex-Dark Savant land. 

Edit:

Just checked CivStats and see that Joey has predictably spammed his 7th city while I deal with all this. So I may need to keep pops low for a few more turns to send out a "fact-finding expedition." I am not above choking another IMP civ to halt their progress.

Yeah, I think Joey definitely qualifies in the top group. Donovan is at five cities, I think, and his military is barely keeping up with the barbs. I think he doesn't realize he's too late for 'choking another civ'. If Joey can't trivially kill an expeditionary force by now, he's asleep. But, well, Imp with those neighbors in those positions - Joey should be able to grow quite fast right now.

Plus of course a 25% chance that one of the Rest has something awesome going on that we haven't seen. For example, if Gavagai's war goes swimmingly, he'll be launched into the top group - but we've not seen much of anything from either him or B4ndit, so I can't judge how profitable it will be. Matters a great deal whether those 4 war chariots run into a pair of spears or a warrior.

[Mardoc]

Agree 100% with this:

I was blind by thinking that it was me who wasnt giving peace to OH. This was right idea for the beginning but I let too much to pass without doing anything. I believe we could afford to send a sentry if we were not going to set up guards.

To justify myself I must admit that I was busy in this month and not paying much attention to the game.

It's rare that people can admit this kind of mistake, especially immediately after being punished for it.  Bodes well for OT4E in the future, even if he's in a bad spot for this particular pitboss.

[Dark Savant]

Plus of course a 25% chance that one of the Rest has something awesome going on that we haven't seen.  For example, if Gavagai's war goes swimmingly, he'll be launched into the top group - but we've not seen much of anything from either him or B4ndit, so I can't judge how profitable it will be.  Matters a great deal whether those 4 war chariots run into a pair of spears or a warrior.

B4ndit had ... one warrior covering two cities? Where is his military?

[Thorite]

Donnavan hasn't teched Agriculture yet!

Strangely he doesn't seem to be missing out too badly. I spotted a couple of dry corn and dry rice but it's not obvious that they should have been planted before other sites. 

Was this intentional in the map design? The predominance of pasture foods, I mean.

[Cornflakes]

The starting map picture edited into the first post appears to be dead. Might be a good idea to spoiler tag that image in any case just in case of mis-clicks.

[JR4]

So since we were slowed down we must keep our neighbors in stress too.

Turning the Carthagian army around to stab Joey is going to sour relations between them. Also, there are a lot of war declarations in that area. Is that the real Peninsula of Death? OT4E could use an ally or two. Finharry have improved their position over the last dozen turns and could outgrow their neighbors. Going for an early Astronomy is surely a good idea, (though several others have mentioned that idea also).

Soon, very soon, Mackoti will attack a neighbor, likely Aretas. His power level is scary indeed. I think he`s in pole position here.

[Mardoc]

Finharry have improved their position over the last dozen turns and could outgrow their neighbors.

Yes, this looks likely to me too.  OT4E and William are both getting involved in 1v1 wars pretty much on the philosophy of 'I have an army, I might as well use it'.  They don't appear to have any tangible goals or plans or advantages here, and they're both going up against opponents who got to grow earlier.  I suspect these will both not go anywhere.  If they're unlucky, they will turn into stalemate-quagmires, giving FinHarry two options for future expansion.  FinHarry have a major advantage in number of cities and in land claimed; all they really need is for their whip unhappiness to wear off and for those cities to grow tall, then they will have explosive growth in demographics or power.

Whichever of OT4E and William first fights a battle that costs them half their army, might well find a dozen horse archers hitting their backlines...

Soon, very soon, Mackoti will attack a neighbor, likely Aretas. His power level is scary indeed. I think he`s in pole position here.

...but yes, FinHarry's opportunity will be in 20-30 turns, while Mackoti's opportunity is now.  And that assumes that neither of GermanJoey nor Elkad actually manages to *win* their war.  If one of them does manage to absorb the civ weakened by FinHarry (say, because they've already made it to Classical units), then FinHarry will be in a perfect position to be eaten next, instead   .

[Thorite]

Like Mardoc said:

Elkad, the "noob target" for William, has better food, hammers and GNP than William and is set at 100% military. That certainly is the more interesting corner of the world so far.