[SPOILER] [PB38] OT4E plays this one because lurking around takes too much time

[OT4E]

Unfortunately we have just 6 cities now. The real problem is 21th food graph. We are not deadly behind but we are at the tail. I expect that other nations with 6 cities have their land better developed and plant their next cities soon. We will plant only within the following 5-6 turns.

I agree with your points about colossus. Though what we really can do is not maximize commerce output because working coast is not what we can afford right now neither we can make cottages. But we can emphazise on production in our best coastal city. However I need to calculate what is better to try to pop borders in honor to get more base hammers or prepare overflow queue from barracks and chariot we are currently building.

What do you think about attack? Is it our chance to restore balance with our neighbors or just another crazy idea how to turn everyone around ourselves into enemies? Do you think that we have chance to maintain peace with GJ and not get occasionally consumed by him?

[OT4E]

I think popping borders will not give any profit and we'd better get overflow cascade. With it we can 1 turn forge. After this and if we manage to get mines in radius 1 in time the city will be making 16 base hammers per turn, or 36 hammers for collossus. We also have 4 forests in radius 1 for 180 hammers total. This means that we are able to make it in 2 turns if we do everything right with chopping.

As for attack I am going to declare GJ next turn and see what is in his front with warrior. Despite of our general intentions we'd better have a sight of his front. He might take measures because our movements look suspicious. I expect that he will wardec and try to make forced peace. So far our archer revealed that he has just connected stone and has another plain sheep to work. We will also see graphs next turn to make decision but will need to make it quick.

[OT4E]

It is a shame that we have got no chariots yet.

[OT4E]

Here is GJ's city and his graphs:



Since we are at phase 1 he has 2 full turns of production and/or whip to bring reinforcements. I will run some tests but I am almost convince to offer him peace next turn.

[OT4E]

I thought GJ would whip axe or archer and use overflow for walls in the worst case for us, but so far he only whipped walls. He still can move something in but after some tests I decided to give it chance.

I tested 2 cases:
1) 2 axes, 1 archer, warrior and walls
2) 1 axe, 2 archers, warrior and walls.

In 1) I won 10/12 times, and in average we gain 12-14 experience points. We are now 17/30 from getting GG.
In 2) I won only 8/12, but still got 12+ exp in case of success. Anyway we will have a chance to cancel attack in case of unlucky first combats or retreat if GJ manages to improve garnisson. I personally think that there will be no better target for double CR axes we have got. And GG opens us some extra opportunities.

[OT4E]

One more reason I didnt retreat this turn is that GJ's reaction was not like he was being invaded, only 1 whip. Probably he didnt have military units in queue and just started them. So since we were slowed down we must keep our neighbors in stress too. But if he didnt even whip a cycle of units all our efforts are useless.

The only thing makes me sad is that OH's immortal is around and it is watching all our movements. I have bad feeling about it despite of 5 turns of forced peace we have. I fear that OH may try some other opportunistic attack or what is even worse feel free to develop his 9 cities without any pressure.

***
Meanwhile pyramids were built somewhere and B4ndit is getting killed by Gavagai and plako. And there is huge number of wardec and peace treaties in log I cant even track.

[OT4E]

Luck really favors to me this game:


I checked luck with his scout 98.9% and killed it without a scratch. There were 2 archers, axe and warrior in the city, so the worst case among 2 I have tested. But after all I only lost one first axe attacking it:

15.0% Loss
26.0% Win
27.2% Win
94.4% Win
68.1% Win

We've got GG.

[OT4E]

I decided to capitalize success a bit and found a city near ruins denying GJ replanting. But I am not sure what is the best spot:


On #? we can connect gems in 3 turns without popping borders (15 turns +) and it also denies GJ most of replanting locations, though he can plant between sheep and rice and spoil us the rest of life .
#?? denies him most of reasonable locations but it is closer to his borders, so more aggressive and we cant use gems.

Unfortunately I pillaged quarry on stone...

[chumchu]

Sorry for being so absent. 6 cities is a bit worse and losing a well developed one hurts. Still. Our new cities will be productive fast as MC is soon here and there are many forests to chop into forges and granaries and units.

About chariots. Two-movers would be perfect for this style of warfare =) Numids when? HBR directly after MC is my preference.

Lucky again =) Lets build some spears in Thapsus/Lepsis to avoid the same mistake as before or OH sneaking one of them with his immortal.

#?? is plainly better with an extra sheep and a 2 hammer tile. It is very aggressive and hard to defend though. We need a large garrison to prevent a flatland city close to him from being suddenly overwhelmed. It could be attacked from the fog by units in his eastern city. I think it boils down to if we want to commit to a conflict with GJ. The aggressive plant would force him and us to have big garrisons nearby. If not I would plant #?

[OT4E]

I think #? is better at least for giving quick access to gems which is not just a source of happy but also cheap commerce we need so much.

The quesion is do we try to advance? GJ didnt make any whips thinking he can hold the city or at least get rid of the top attackers. But the situaion turned so that we have 2 tripple CR axes now and his next city is also flat. But this goes beyond local border conflict and gives opportunity for OH to get involved. What do you think?

HBR we need asap but I will still go for sailing first and we need to consider masonry too.