[Spoilers] rho21 follows the works of Homer... D'OH!

[rho21]

Would you definitely see Kongolese traders?

I believe so. I'd certainly get vision from them (there was a fun case in PBEM7 of one team getting the vision range of their allied team's spy, but not being able to see the spy itself). There is one truncated road near Kapsalon, so I suspect they built one trader and lost it to the barbarian infestation in that area, and haven't found time to build more.

It hardly seems believable that they don't have any... and yet, in that shot, there do indeed seem to be no roads in the Kongo. No wonder they are hurting for gold so much!

They seem to have fixed that a bit very recently with new policies. They have about 11/turn right now. Still, they could be getting 81/turn per trade route right now. Four of those would see them quite close to caught up.

As for you, science and culture seem pretty playable now - and I expect the Aztecs to know that too. Accordingly, the military situation gets more worrying, because an attack gets more likely if they think you are catching up and even overtaking them on the other major metrics, no?

Yeah, I'm well ahead in science and in touch with culture (with a number of boosts they don't have). However the Aztec ability to get districts cheaply is becoming more and more powerful so they could easily jump ahead again.

Good point about the increased chance of the Aztecs trying their military luck again. There's only so much I can do about it. I believe I could hold against an attack at Xenocrates for the time being, and probably at the cities to the north. I could do very little against an attack on Kongo, though the alliance would at least let me consider sending a fast force of knights to the south to hit the Aztec flank.

There are a few factors in favour of them waiting though. They have a second general due in a little while, which will make it possible to launch an effective two-pronged attack. Meanwhile, the advance in technology starts to make my units relatively less powerful as everything except the knights will no longer benefit from my great general, while his will last for some time yet. Also speaking for a delay is that the Aztecs must be approaching muskets soon, but they know I'm slightly ahead. They may not want to risk me deploying field cannons at just the wrong moment.

There are also points in favour of them attacking as soon as they can upgrade a significant number of muskets. Firstly, they may be significantly further from field cannons than me, and so have a timing window where their boosted muskets are effective before I can bring any real counters. Secondly, though they don't know it, in 20 turns or so all of the border cities should be protected by Defender of the Faith. That belief is worth +10 strength, equivalent to a full age of military technology. At technological parity, they'll have real trouble attacking without an overwhelming force. Hopefully I can spread the religion to Kongo too not longer after that.

Lastly, I'm aware of the possibility they may decide to attack my back lines over the ocean. This is probably the scariest possibility as I don't have much over here to defend with. Hopefully I can put out a few ships to at least detect an attack in advance.

Can you show the new scouting information that you got from the Kongo alliance at some point?

D'oh. I intended to take a screenshot of that, then completely forgot about it. I'll post one with the next turn. What the information revealed was the city SW of Xenocrates plus some borders off to the W and SW of Near Wild Heaven.

[rho21]

Oh yes, I believe you were considering joining a PBEM yourself, Garath. There's an R&F one proposed and waiting for players right now.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Oh yes, I believe you were considering joining a PBEM yourself, Garath. There's an R&F one proposed and waiting for players right now.

Yes, join usssss, Garath. We'd love to have you! And it's fun to take these things out on solo spins even if you fall on your face (as I did). 

As for lurker input, Japper has Alhambram dedlurking him, and he's no slouch.

[rho21]

Played turn 125 over lunch. My notes say:

Euclid finished its market and got started on a monument, due in 3.

Emilie du Chatelet showed up SW of Xenocrates, scouting for my forces. She won't get far as things stand.

Apparently the alliance gave Kongo its first sight of Tsingy, despite it being just 3 tiles outside the borders of Kapsalon.

Amenities are running low; I have just about enough for all cities to be content. I'll have to think about entertainment districts fairly soon if I can't find another source of amenities.

Anyway, on to Turn 126

Score tracking
Kongo finished a civic. They adopted Professional Army and did some upgrades. They also finished a campus at Waffles and added enough envoys to Geneva to get the full benefit.

Military
A hoplite kicks the scouting Aztec great scientist. Nothing else moving.

Housekeeping
Exploration done; Guilds started. Boost is due in 3 turns, which should be just about right.

Next up, I have a plan formulated last turn to chop the forest between Pythagoras and Perseus through the last bit of the galley, finishing the acropolis and other infrastructure with the overflow. Except that doesn't work, because Maritime Industries is gone already, before the government switch happens. In fact it was removed before production happened this turn even. Damn, I would have delayed Exploration a turn if I'd realised that was going to happen.
Oh well, I'll have to chop through the walls instead next time I run Limes.

So, let's switch to Merchant Republic, giving me 1 military, 2 economic, 1 diplomatic and 3 wildcard slots to fill up. Freshly unlocked are Press Gangs (+100% to renaissance + industrial naval units) and Colonial Offices (+15% to growth outside your capital continent).

Not all that much has changed from a few turns ago in terms of available policies. My new government will be:

• Conscription
  
• Natural Philosophy
  
• Meritocracy
  
• Merchant Confederation
  
• Aesthetics
  
• Professional Army - I have enough for some upgrades now and this is my shortest government for the time being.
  
• Colonization - could use 2 or 3 more settlers
  

This is deliberately light on production boosting cards as I need to build a couple of traders soon anyway.

Dinostratus finished a quadrireme and now starts a granary.

As promised, a view of what Kongo showed us in the west:

[rho21]

Turn 127

Score tracking
Aztec finished an industrial zone (last turn - I may not have been paying enough attention late last night). This turn they grew a couple of population. Aztec power continues to increase in a scary fashion. It's now double mine, and they haven't got any muskets yet.
Kongo also gained a population this turn.

Military
Nothing moving on the Aztec side. Kongo has a knight and Ngao approaching Xenocrates from the SE. I assume they plan to provide vision on the northern approaches of Waffles (which I already have covered, albeit with mobile units so Kongo doesn't get to share their vision). Still no Kongolese units covering the far SW.

Housekeeping
Metal Casting complete. On to Ballistics for now, though I'll switch off it soon enough.

Euclid-Geneva trade route complete. The trader transfers to Dinostratus so it can lay another few tiles of useful road on its next trip to Geneva. Of course, this costs me a few science for a turn.

Currently listed times for conversion:

• Xenocrates: 19 (grows in 11)
  
• Perseus: 9 (grows in 6)
  
• Pythagoras: 32 (grows in 2)
  
• Euclid: 11 (grows in 15)
  
• Dinostratus: 19 (grows in 3)
  
• Bryson: 8 (grows in 2)
  

I'll try to watch what happens when the cities grow.

Anyway, mentioning religion, I have the to buy an apostle now, we'll see next turn how we rolled on promotions.

[Garath]

My initial reaction to those conversion numbers is that they are pretty slow compared to the speed of this game. I think I'd be looking to convert another couple directly and expect that to bring the numbers down on the others.

[rho21]

Yep, I particularly want to get Xenocrates converted. We'll see next turn whether the apostle has one of the promotions that lets it spend some charges and still be able to improve the religion. If so, it's heading over that way straight away. Either way I will hold onto it and pick up defender of the faith when it seems sensible. I don't want to do it immediately as it might prompt the Aztecs to attack before the religion can spread to cover all frontline cities.

[rho21]

Turn 128

Score tracking
The Aztecs have founded a new city. This time I know exactly where it is: just north of Near Wild Heaven, next to the oasis.
They've also recruited the first great admiral, Themistocles, who can be retired to give them an extra quadrireme. Woo.
The new admiral is Sir Francis Drake (Renaissance, so 240 points). His retirement power gives you a little gold and improves the plunder for sea trade routes. Hardly earth-shattering.

Military
The Aztec great scientist shows up just across the river west of Xenocrates. She can be safely kicked if she decides to cross. I moved a few units away from what she'll be able to see should she move forwards.

A barbarian scout has appeared near Waffles. No sign of the camp.

Housekeeping
The apostle has pilgrim promotion available (3 extra spreads when moving past a natural wonder for the first time). That will do nicely, assuming the mechanics I've heard are correct, and improving the religion is possible provided you still have at least your original number of charges. I'll give that a test if I can before committing to using a charge; in the meantime the apostle heads for crater lake.

The rebased trader in Dinostratus is sent to Geneva. Hooray for more money.
Euclid has finished its monument and starts a new trader.
Meanwhile, Perseus has completed its galley and continues work on its acropolis.

Guilds will be boosted by the second market completing next turn, so I'm going to be going slightly past half way. Not much to be done, not worth wasting the culture on one of the civics I never plan to research.

Here's the new Aztec city:

[rho21]

Played at lunchtime.

Turn 129

Score tracking
Kongo finished a third commercial hub. Hopefully they'll make some traders soon.
The Aztecs finished a tech and a civic and grew a pop. They also spent approximately 440 gold, presumably on upgrades. However their base city strength of 40 reveals they don't have muskets yet, in fact the only renaissance unit with 50 melee strength is the caravel. So perhaps that's just one caravel, perhaps it's a group of them. No way of knowing whether they have frigates around too. I'm keeping a close eye on the seas now though. They can't do too much direct damage as most cities are inland. I have just 2 cities vulnerable to capture from the sea, both quite small, while Kongo have only 1. Geneva is also at risk, and would be a greater loss. Not much I can do as yet with just one galley up there and the city state resolutely refusing to build a navy.

Military
The Aztec great scientist is scouting safely along the ridge in the west.

Housekeeping
The market at Hippocrates is done, it starts on a trader, due in 5.
That boosts Guilds to completion, which boosts Banking to completion too.

Before switching governments, I need to do some upgrading of my own. I have 703 in the bank, making 43/turn.
I have available to upgrade:

• 3 archers -> crossbows at 95 each (1 of those in the east)
  
• 1 sword -> musket at 115
  
• 2 warriors -> muskets at 155 each (1 of those in the east)
  
• 1 chariot -> knight at 90 (also 1 other off in the south)
  

I decide to upgrade 1 archer, 1 sword, 1 warrior and 1 chariot at a cost of 455 and 9/turn. Holding off on the others as field cannons will be arriving pretty soon (about 8 turns).

Humanism is next civic to research, due in 9 turns. I may end up delaying that to get two quick switches in. Either way, it's a pretty long government span, so I want some production policies even if I'm not expecting to use them for the first few turns.

I end up keeping all the economic policies unchanged, just bringing in Feudal Contract in exchange for Professional Army. So I can build Crossbows, Muskets and Settlers at +50%.

I'm thinking to build a settler at Aristaeus when it's done with its current build of a trader. The settler at Apollonius will be done before too long as well. Other cities will start military builds when they have finished their current infrastructure work.

One final thought. I've been holding off on the industrial zone with excellent adjacency at Euclid, waiting for the tile to come into borders. Even once it does it will only have 3 adjacency until additional tiles are claimed to bring it up to 5. Instead I could place it SE of its currently-planned location (sadly over the top of an existing mine). That would let it be placed immediately and would limit it to 4 adjacency (3 mines and perhaps a district). The main reason for this switch though would be to open up the possibility of building the Ruhr Valley. Available at Industrialization at the cost of 1260, this wonder must be adjacent to a river and to an industrial zone with a factory. It provides +20% in the city and +1 to every mine and quarry worked by the city. Not always great, but here I could see it boosting 8 or 9 quarries and mines. By that stage the city would be producing about 50/turn, which it would increase by another 10.
I guess even at a gain of 20/turn, that would be a fair amount of time to pay off. Perhaps it's only worthwhile if I can get a great engineer that makes production for wonders.

Here's a strategic view of the area to hopefully make that clearer:

[rho21]

I ran up a test game as Russia to test the apostle plan. An apostle with +3 charges (got the desired promotion first time!) spread the religion 3 times and was indeed still able to improve it as well.

Back in this game, the apostle will reach Crater Lake next turn, then will be 5 or so turns getting to the front. It's possible to improve the religion anywhere in your own territory, so no need to run all the way back to the holy site.