[SPOILERS] naufragar is in for a penny

[naufragar]

Thanks, ipecac. If I were competent, I'd figure out a way to store those hammers, so a bunch of cities could pour them into forges. But I'm not.

I don't know how I feel about this:


I think this is closer to him than me. (I'm trying to remember that dividing line I drew forever ago.) He's got the hill to look into Harmony Valley but that was going to happen regardless. It's a good spot, and as France he can contest my wheat. I was trying to decide if I regret not pushing back, but the truth is, I don't think I was able to. I just didn't have the troops on hand, and any city I planted in that area would've been under intense pressure. Again, civ historians of the future might judge me harshly. I could've whipped more units and set them on that hill. I think he was always going to get that wheat and sheep. The deer was contestable, but I didn't. Again, for the post mortem.

Mackoti's power is still flat. Should I start getting scared of Rusten?  


I don't think so, although it'd be nice to see some war weariness, so I know he and superdeath are actually fighting.

I got TBS' graphs this turn. (I think. Maybe. I wasn't paying attention.) He is...well, see for yourself.


Man's a wizard. Also shown: despite Rusten's big score, his crop yield isn't exceptional. He needs to turn his tech and Statue of Zeus lead into more land, preferably from superdeath, I'd rather he didn't try from me.

Adrien reinforced with an axe, which makes sims more difficult. Four units unloaded from galleys is looking sketchy. I realize I forgot to mouse over the city.


(There are more than four units in that shot, but the galley timing is complicated. Trust me.) Lincelt should grow to size 2 at the end of turn 103. In a perfect world, he immediately whips his protective granary. There's little reason for him to actually do this, though. The granary can be put off until the food bar is half full. If he does whip a granary, we may still be on.

Oh Commodore. I didn't know you cared.


I put EP into him in retaliation but not with any feeling. I don't have anybody else I care to have graphs on, and I don't plan to flex my EP muscles on my neighbors until I get cheap courthouses online. (I won't bother showing you the graph, but superdeath ran the EP slider some a while back. Wonder what that was about.) You can see BGN piling on to the Rusten-superdeath war, and Bandit getting eaten by Plako and Gavagai.

I'm realizing that Rusten and I are much closer in MfG and Crop than I thought. I was fooled by his double wonder boosted score. Let's see how he does against superdeath.

[Mardoc]

Guys, I logged back in to figure out better build orders, and I just have to say wealth builds are nuts! In exchange for halting all infrastructure development needed for long term growth and unit production necessary for geopolitical relevance, I was able to save a couple turns on tech!

I know the general idea is to trade off hammer investments for tech investments - after all, tech is needed for long term growth and unit production, too. You're supposed to pick whichever investment pays off the best at any given moment.

(Am I doing this right?)

Beats the heck out of me!  I never got the hang of RB games; I tended to be dying by now, not optimizing my level of Wealth-building.

[naufragar]

Yeah, I was a bit surprised because I thought the production-focused, wealth-building aspect of RtR came from its workshop buff. Younger cities could still contribute to an empire's tech rate through workshops, without having to wait for cottages to mature. Here I am trying to figure this out without workshops, which makes me think my vanilla civ wealth building was sub-optimal. In SP, my thinking was probably: Build infrastructure. If nothing to build, train units. If no units needed, build wealth. Since I love building infrastructure and always under-build units in SP (who doesn't?), I rarely got to step three.

I tended to be dying by now, not optimizing my level of Wealth-building.

Give me time! Right after I wrote that I didn't need to be afraid of Rusten, I started getting shivers down my spine. Water Garden (the spot where Rusten would attack) might stop building wealth and get some walls and an extra unit next turn.

[Zalson]

Guys, I logged back in to figure out better build orders, and I just have to say wealth builds are nuts! In exchange for halting all infrastructure development needed for long term growth and unit production necessary for geopolitical relevance, I was able to save a couple turns on tech!

(Am I doing this right?)

I lol-ed so, yes.

[ipecac]

This is how you do it:

[naufragar]

Part of me is glad to have TBS' graphs, so Mackoti doesn't seem like he's a full order of magnitude stronger than his opposition. He's been posting more frequently, so that'll be nice to learn from after the game. Generally, though, Mack's posts are about his global strategy and not his impeccable micro timing. Speaking of which, someone founded Confucianism. Would make sense for him with his sprawling empire.

Today's agenda:


I miscounted when that city would grow, because I was forgetting about turn order. I thought he founded on turn 99, but I've been playing before him. Adrien founded after me on turn 98. Currently that city has a five food surplus, meaning it will grow in three turns.

EoT 103: 11 food
EoT 104: 17f
EoT 105: 25f GROWTH! Edit: Basic arithmetic is my kryptonite. 23f.

Ok. So on Turn 106, he can hit the whip button, with a unit online on Turn 107. Let's see if our timing still works.



It's very tight, folks. on turn 106 we hit the city with 3 Horse Archers, 1 Axe, and 1 chariot-but-it-is-trying-to-attack-off-a-boat. I thought we ran into a bit of an ethical dilemma about the turn timer. (I think with my previous schedule where the city grows T103 instead of T102, he wouldn't have been able to whip in time if I played second.) Luckily, no such issues. He whips in response on turn 106 regardless who plays first, regardless of if he saw it coming on turn 105. I've played in the first half or even third of the timer for like 95% of the game, so I don't have to switch that up, thankfully.

Ethics: at peace. What about tactics? Not so placid, unfortunately. Thanks again, DaveV, for Cyneheard's calculator.
We attack first with a Combat 1 HA: 63% chance of putting the skirmisher to 68hp or below.
Next, C1 HA: 63% chance of putting it to 17hp.
Enemy axe now defends.
Vanilla HA: 67% chance of putting axe to 49hp.
Off the boat chariot: 96% chance of killing the axe.
Skirmisher now defends.
CR1 Axe: 99% chance to kill.

If the attack fails, Adrien gets to whip in another unit. I'll have an additional 2 axes attacking off a boat. I assume the unit will be a skirmisher. In any case, everything depends on how wounded my survivors are (presumably the chariot and axe but maybe a lucky withdrawing HA) and if they can promo heal, but if there is a fresh skirmisher, the attack almost certainly fails, so this really has to happen on the first turn after landing. As you can see, the odds, frankly, are against us. I've tried to use the cautious sims, but the odds of doing the necessary damage in the first three fights is (0.63*0.63*0.67=) not damn likely. There are enough moving parts, and I'm guilty of enough magical thinking that we are going ahead with the attack regardless. (I say now; when I have more time later, I'll sim more and maybe be more sane.)

Obviously, all this is off if what was just whipped wasn't a granary but a unit instead.

More edit: Ethics of taking second half of turn timer still on, unfortunately. Could make all the difference. Attacker gets to choose I guess, so not next turn but the turn after, we'll want to take the second position. Ugh. Feels gross.

[naufragar]

How can I be so wrong so frequently?  


I went back to check screenshots. I'm pretty sure that city was founded at the earliest on turn 99, not that turn 98 crap I said earlier.
It probably worked the grassland pigs for 3f until the pasture was completed by two workers. So:
EoT 99: 3f in the box.
EoT 100: Pasture completes. 6f gained. 9f in the box.
EoT 101: 15f in the box.
EoT 102: 21f in the box.
EoT 103: 26f in the box. Whip into granary.

But this didn't happen. Instead, after the pasture, those workers moved to the forest 1SW of the city and chopped it into a granary. (It is a granary. The skirmisher's legs are blocking it.) So, now we're back to our earlier problem of what that pop point becomes. There's no unit that can be dry whipped, so the question is, did Adrien put a safety hammer into a skirmisher build? These safety hammers are all important. If he loads up turn 106 (assuming I play second on turn 105), he sees an invasion force on the island. If he needs to put hammers into a unit, he can only whip it turn 107, with it coming online turn 108. This should be too late. If he's able to whip turn 106 with the unit online turn 107, the offensive probably fails, barring very good luck in the initial wave. Out of my hands. I worry I've been a little scary though. You can see my chariot and axe ring around Lincelt. This isn't threatening: no galleys visible, one axe is just guarding a worker, a sentry chariot is doing who knows what. On the other hand, it might draw attention to the fact I've got all these units and nothing to do. Oh, and I was a complete moron in my excitement to start building forges, so I did this:



Those whips weren't even that good! I was just on autopilot. Couldn't even tell you what they were!   If I had waited a turn, this wouldn't have mattered. As it is, it might make Adrien think I've got bloody thoughts, which, again, shouldn't matter. A whole bunch of whips can't materialize as units on his doorstep in one turn, but it might make him savvy enough to put in those darn safety hammers.

[naufragar]

Welp. Alley a yak test.



Adrien didn't whip this turn or the last. If he whips next turn, we attack. Cyneheard's calculator has us winning if we do "average" damage. The rub is that average damage isn't a real thing since it often is in between the break points for combat. (If that doesn't make sense, ask. Basically, it might be an average that never occurs.) Also, who ever gets average rolls in civ? Somehow both players always have catastrophic luck. But since Rick survived that 15% bear battle once upon a time, I still won't complain about the dice. Speaking of Rick...



Not like this! I moved him back 2S because I wasn't thinking. He already passed an enemy skirmisher on the way. I think that skirmisher is at Cairo's border and has no where to go. It will turn back and catch me if I go around the peak. I'm seriously considering war dec-ing 2metraninja to get around those mountains, but Rick's in a bad bad place. To think, to have survived so long and exploring his little heart out, just to die because of some territorial squabble back home. My heart breaks. Might log back in to give 2metra some gold for a toll.  

Bigger picture:


Could people please stop? Stop landing the great library when you're philosophical. Stop, whoever you are, getting a great engineer to use on the Taj. (Or the MoM, I guess.)

I realize I got distracted by Rick's plight and didn't finish the battle plan. If Adrien whips, we attack, because our odds of winning are at least within the realm of possibility, whereas with an extra unit, we just lose. If Adrien doesn't whip, we actually wait a turn, landing the chariot and embarking the axes on turn 106, then attack on turn 107. I'm not totally sold on this plan because of the non-zero chance Adrien has already founded a second city on the island and so has more units with which to reinforce. He founded a city like 4-5 turns ago I think. Didn't make a note of it. If I had to guess, that city, if it's on the island, is on the grassland 2SW of Lincelt. If the city's garrison is with it, no problem. It won't reinforce in time. If it's not, if it's on a galley for example, we shouldn't wait. (I guess the zoomed out world map should spot those cultural borders. Looks like I need to log back in.) I think I'd rather risk a unit being shipped in, than the first wave failing and the defenders' promotions being too much for my second wave.

Edit: It pops into my mind that I don't know the etiquette of declaring war? Adrien will see the war dec, get the whole turn split, etc.? There's nothing out of the game I need to do, right? There is unfortunately no diplo option for me to send a fruit basket that says we can still be friends if he cedes the island.

[JR4]

Edit: It pops into my mind that I don't know the etiquette of declaring war? Adrien will see the war dec, get the whole turn split, etc.? There's nothing out of the game I need to do, right?

The most important thing is to be careful not to double move your victim and then keep to a turn split. That is the responsibility of the attacker. You can send Adrien a message that you`re at war but it`s not strictly necessary. Most players don`t like that the other party logs in when at war at the wrong half of the timer so I recommend that you let him finish his turn before playing your turn (assuming you have the second half).

[naufragar]

Thanks, JR4. I had forgotten that taotao was ded lurking Adrien. I don't know how often he logs in, but I did play in between Adrien and taotao, which freaked me out when I saw it on civstats. Adrien had already ended turn, so I'm sure I have second half. And taotao ended turn for this turn before I played, so it looks like we're all squared away for turn order.

Remember how I said I couldn't complain about dice rolls after Rick survived that bear?


I am now not allowed to complain about dice rolls for my next game either. I got disgustingly lucky here, not losing a single unit. Adrien/taotao have good cause to be pissed. Frankly, I was gobsmacked, so I might have played the rest of the turn sloppily. You can see in the pic a galley that I assume is coming to reinforce, so we had to attack this turn. How surprised was I? I promoted my axe to City Raider, so I could double check mouse over odds and ended up not needing him. Here's the combat log.

Ignore the top combat (Chariot v. Warrior). I'll mention it later.

I kind of panicked after winning and made a rash peace offer. I offered a peace treaty followed by a cease fire, and I worry that that'll be interpreted the wrong way. I don't expect them to take it. I sucker punched them; only fair that they get to have a swing at me.

Here's the final troop deployment:


I'm hedging my bets with that axe in between the two cities. Part of my incredible luck was having that axe completely left over. This means I've got 3 units in the city, when Adrien might've hoped that whatever's on that galley could counterattack and take back the city. Now I have to worry about him either attacking my gems worker off the boat, or landing on the desert by Liberty Rock. Last I checked, he didn't have iron, so Liberty Rock should be safe. He could kill the gems worker, which would be annoying. I'm interested in what that galley does, to put it mildly.

After the giddy high of a successful sneak attack wore off, I felt a little bad for the deception. That was only compounded when I made this attack:


I put in honest thought to letting that warrior live. It's no threat to me, and the poor guy knew he had nowhere to go. If I didn't attack, I possibly signaled to Adrien (I'm going to call the pair Adrien; no offense, taotao!) that I'm not interested in a vendetta, but why should he care? I attacked and took the only place that was vulnerable. Of course, I'm not interested in fighting further, and it's duplicitous to pretend that I'm not staying on the offensive out of some Gandhi-esque benevolence. All the same, I thought about letting it live, but at the end of the day, that was an extra 4 points towards a great general. (Thank you, Imp.) If retribution falls on Rick, I'll have to live with that.

Speaking of Rick, I ended up not moving him. I would've had to declare war on 2metra, and I think I'm going to get bumped to the same spot I would've moved to.


I think 2metra plays after me, so I bet a city's about to be founded 1E of Rick, who will then get bumped south of the peaks somewhere. I anthropomorphize my little pixel people something fierce. It's part of what makes civ beautiful to me, but I've got to admit, I've kind of written Rick off. There's no passage south plus Adrien's borders are there, and to the north there are enemy units and soon to be neutral but still impassable borders. Poor guy's stuck.

Coincidentally, he's not the only scouting unit of mine about to get inconveniently bumped:


Rusten also plays after me, and I suspect he's about to bump my chariot back east. I still want to explore guys! I saw an Adrien city with Judaism, so I know Xenu's SW somewhere, probably beyond Adrien. Rusten, by the way, was the object of (yet another) war declaration by Mackoti. I wonder what's going on with that. I wouldn't feel very significant if my western neighbor was getting into territorial disputes with my eastern one...

We now wait for Adrien's response. Most of my cities are building forges in preparation for courthouses, but I am still building units. I've also shuffled a couple off the Mackoti front, but only a literal couple because I still don't sleep super easy about my north.

Man, it's a lot less upsetting to sneak attack the AI.


Edit: I forgot even more good luck! The captured city still had its damn granary!  Mark my words, the wheel turns, and I'm gonna have to pay it back eventually.