[SPOILERS] Magic Science and Mr. Cairo in Pitboss 40

[Mr. Cairo]

I'm guessing he offered the peace so he could take the barb city without us interfering.

[Magic Science]

Turn 44 – 2240 BC
I am still working on the minutiae of the micro for the coming turns, but I have a basic plan. I still plan to spike our military power over the next few turns. We may be at peace now, but Superdeath could come back and try again in ten turns if he thinks that he has an opening. We need to convince him that he does not have an opening so that he won’t even try to attack. A few axemen and archers should do the trick (in fact, I checked the demographics after the turn rolled, and we are now number 1 in power with only two of the planned units completed).

After doing a quick power spike, we will build some Terraces and a settler to settle on the ruins of Old Hong Kong. I think that it is still the best spot for a third city. The difference is that this time the city will be backed up by two axemen and an archer on the turn it is founded. A short while later (around Turn 60, so this part could change drastically if Superdeath is poking around), we can found the white filler spot by the sheep with a similar number of defenders.

I forgot to take an overview screenshot on Turn 44, but I took one after the turn roll so that you can see what is going on.
   
In case you are wondering, Quechua Two is going to investigate what type of unit is defending the barbarian city while seeing if there is any impi activity in the area.

I'm guessing he offered the peace so he could take the barb city without us interfering.

That is a good guess. It seems quite plausible to me. Although if that is the reason, then I think that Superdeath was foolish to make peace. The barbarian city will take at least 8 turns to grow to the point where it won’t be automatically razed, and by that time the peace treaty will be almost up anyway.

[Magic Science]

Turn 45 – 2200 BC
Here is the current state of the Incan League:
   
Quechua Three arrived in Cuzco, so Axeman One and Two (currently unnamed to deny Superdeath information) moved south. They will be part of the garrison of New Hong Kong when it is founded. I am going to try to move them so that Superdeath’s impi can see them to help in my efforts to convince him to not attack again. And about those impis, if they don’t start moving away from our borders soon, I will start getting suspicious.

Also, on that note, there are two things I have been thinking about that will be relevant when the peace treaty expires.

One, should we declare war and offer peace right away when we can? I think that we should. It gives us security if he does accept peace and a warning of his intentions if he does not. The only mechanical consequence would be killing the peaceful trade route bonus, but Alphabet is still a way off, and I have a hard time seeing us and Superdeath in a cordial relationship with open borders in the future anyway. There might be a diplomatic consequence, i.e., Superdeath gets ticked off. I’m not sure. How do people in these games usually interpret declarations of war immediately followed by offers of peace? For what it’s worth, I don’t think that I would be aggravated by such an action.

Two, if there are impis along our border when peace expires, should we try to kill them? I think that we should, but I am not that certain about this one. Impis are very dangerous, and killing them would do a lot for security, but Superdeath might get mad and react in a bad way. His reaction could potentially be much worse than the threat of a few impis. Hopefully he will move his impis away and we won't even have to worry about this.

Besides that, Civstats indicates that Coeurva settled his third city this turn. I can’t help thinking about where we could be right now without the Great Injustice of Turn 43.

[Mr. Cairo]

I really don't think we ought to care too much about superdeaths feelings. He is the one who razed our city after all. If we have the chance to kill any impi when the peace treaty ends, we should take it.

I also don't think we should declare war then offer peace unless he has much more power than us. We should try and get that barb city to make up for losing Hong Kong. And if superdeath ends up taking it first, we can just take it from superdeath.

[Magic Science]

I really don't think we ought to care too much about superdeaths feelings. He is the one who razed our city after all. If we have the chance to kill any impi when the peace treaty ends, we should take it.

I suppose that I should explain what I meant more fully. I am not worried about Superdeath’s feelings in isolation. If we kill an impi on Turn 54 and he gets upset and that’s it, so be it, I don’t care. However, if he gets upset and his response is to whip the Injustice League into the ground to produce a horde of impis to get back at us, then I do care. If I knew for certain that his response would be to produce a horde of impis, then I wouldn’t kill the impi(s) on our borders. However, we can’t be certain what his response will be until after we do it, and the impi(s) on our borders would be huge security threat, so I agree that we should kill any impis along our border if we can.

I also don't think we should declare war then offer peace unless he has much more power than us. We should try and get that barb city to make up for losing Hong Kong. And if superdeath ends up taking it first, we can just take it from superdeath.

I hadn’t thought about that consequence of making peace. I suppose I should have, considering your thoughts about Superdeath wanting peace so that we couldn’t interfere with the barbarian city.

I agree that we should take the barbarian city from whoever owns it when our army arrives, that I why I got so excited when it appeared in exactly the right place. A great deal of how we want to go about doing so depends on what type of units are defending it. Quechua Two will confirm what type of unit it is on Turn 47, although if I had to guess I would guess that they are warriors, as I am not sure if the barbarians have Archery yet. If the city is defended by warriors, then it won’t be hard to take it at all. However, as we know, Superdeath’s impis do pretty well against warriors ( ), so we would need to move quickly, probably building some units before Settler Four. If the city is defended by archers, Superdeath’s impis have no chance against them, and we can take our time to build up some more units to take it.

On another note, I have been thinking about the map, and I think that I know what the map looks like on a macro level. I am no good with any of the various paint programs, so I used Civ IV’s worldbuilder and some signs to visually demonstrate my idea.
   
The mountains with signs indicate starting positions. In this map construct, every player borders four other players, two on the same coast as them, two on the opposite coast across the jungle belt (Cylindrical world wrap means that Superdeath would border “Unknown 2” and “Shaka of Rome, please”). We do know for sure that every player starts on the coast. One thing that I am very uncertain about and did not include in this map construct are offshore islands. We haven’t seen any out there yet, but I would be surprised if there aren’t any.

What does this map hypothesis mean for our near-future plans? Not much! Even if we knew for certain that it was correct and that we had neighbors contesting land in the east and southeast as well, I think that we should still settle to secure the border with Superdeath first. He has proven to be dangerous, so a secure border would be nice, the barbarian city is a strong draw to that area, and some revenge against the guy who killed our chances at victory would be appreciated.

Lastly, I would like the make an unrelated prediction. I predict that Coeurva will win this game. This isn’t really based on the current state of the game, although he is out in front in terms of cities right now, but on what I have read from his Pitboss 37 thread. I think that he has the dedication that it takes to win, and he is probably the least noobish of all of us. Superdeath may have played more games, but Coeurva has played farther into the game and, I think, has more experience.

[Mr. Cairo]

However, if he gets upset and his response is to whip the Injustice League into the ground to produce a horde of impis to get back at us

that would not be a reasonable response by any stretch of the imagination, so I would be very shocked if he does anything like that.

quick question, what is Cuzco going to build after the Settler? I also wonder if Sidon should get out another unit before building the Terrace.

[Magic Science]

that would not be a reasonable response by any stretch of the imagination, so I would be very shocked if he does anything like that.

I am glad that you think so. That is what I think too. I guess that I might be worrying about possibilities like that too much because I have never before played a Civ IV game where I have to take into account what my opponents will do and how they will react to the extent that I do in this one.

quick question, what is Cuzco going to build after the Settler? I also wonder if Sidon should get out another unit before building the Terrace.

After completing Settler Three, Cuzco will build a Terrace. I am having Sidon build a Terrace before another unit because we are no longer at war. It will still complete two archers and an axeman before the peace treaty is up, but building a Terrace first is more efficient in terms of food, and we are no longer so desperate that we need to have units RIGHT THIS VERY TURN.
I am still working on the exact micro for the plan, but I am just about done. You should be able to see it soon.

[Magic Science]

Turn 46 and 47– 2160 and 2120 BC
I was the last to play Turn 46, so I just went ahead and played Turn 47 too.
   
On Turn 46, the northern impi moved away from us and the southern one disappeared into the fog. We should keep in mind that it could loop around and launch a surprise attack from the south when the peace treaty expires. Sidon also whipped its terrace for previously explained reasons while Cuzco continued building Settler Three for New Hong Kong.

Cloak and Dagger, confirmed by the trade screen, shows that Superdeath founded his third city, Wonder Woman, this turn. If I have my way, then we will burn that city down someday. In regards to our own city-founding efforts, if all goes well, then we will be back in the Three-City Club on Turn 51, and I think that we could be up to four cities before Turn 60.

Also, take note of the barbarian warrior to the southeast of Sidon. Hopefully it will wander away, but it could cause trouble if it comes at Sidon.
   
This is what the Incan League looks like after I completed my Turn 47 moves.

A barbarian warrior appeared in the southwest, so I moved Axeman Two to deal with it. You can’t see it in this screenshot, but the previously mentioned barbarian warrior to the southeast moved away into the fog. Axeman One moved onto the forested hill as a show of force to Superdeath’s impi (I think that he can see it over the lake).

You can see that Sidon has started Archer One. It will still finish Axeman Three before the peace treaty runs out, but I think that the archer is more useful to have slightly earlier.

The biggest news of the turn is that Quechua Two has laid eyes on the city of Hittite itself, and it is garrisoned only by warriors! We could capture that city with only one axeman. Sadly, the fate of Hittite will likely be decided by Superdeath. If he just wants to raze the city, then he can easily do so without us interfering. The peace treaty has too long of a duration left, and our units can’t get up there fast enough. Razing Hittite is what I expect him to do. It is what I would do in his position. However, if he wants to try to keep the city, then things get interesting. He needs to wait until at least Turn 52 for Hittite to grow so that it won’t be automatically razed, and by then the peace treaty is almost up and we can have some units in the area. I am very interested to see what happens next. Quechua Two will stay in the area to see what happens. 

We seem to be getting to a stage of the game where my micro plans become obsolete very fast due to changing circumstance, but I guess that I might as well post what I have while it is still relevant. Here goes.

Turn 48: Workers Two and Three farm the floodplains southwest of Sidon. Worker One finishes his chop. Cuzco is building Settler Three while working the copper, sugar, sheep, and crabs. Sidon is building Archer One, whips, and works the corn.
Turn 49: Worker Two puts another turn of farming into the floodplains, Worker Three runs to the copper forest, and Worker One starts a road. Cuzco starts a terrace and works all of the same tiles. Sidon works the corn and resumes Axeman Three.
Turn 50: Worker Two finishes the road one tile east of the copper forest, Worker Three chops, and Worker One finishes his road. Cuzco whips off the sugar into the terrace and works the corn instead of the crab. Sidon works the two grassland mines.
Turn 51: Cuzco puts a turn into Settler Four, working the same tiles as Turn 50. Hong Kong is founded. It builds a terrace and works the rice. Worker Three finishes his chop. Worker Two starts mining the copper. Worker One moves one tile southwest and starts a road.

Lastly, I am reconsidering what technologies we should pursue in the near future. Specifically, I am thinking that going for Iron Working sooner that planned might be a good idea. I expect us to lose settling races for the contested areas with our neighbors in all directions, so we are going to run out of land sooner. With Iron Working, we could unlock the jungle belt as a location to expand when we run low on non-jungle land. For now, I am just going to continue towards Animal Husbandry.

[Mr. Cairo]

I can see the logic of IW soonish, but I would still go for Writing first for a library and the first great person. I don't know what you have planned for a GP, but I would suggest a Golden Age over an Academy. An Academy is a long term investment that I don't think we can afford to make, and a GA can help us expand.

[Magic Science]

Turn 48 – 2080 BC
   
Oooooh boy, Superdeath might just be leaving the city of Hittite for us. His impi appears to be walking right by it. He still has time to turn around and take the city if he wants to (our axeman can’t attack until Turn 52 at the earliest), but I am starting to feel optimistic about Operation Bronze Age Collapse. Quechua Two will stay by Hittite to keep an eye on things, and Axeman One and Two started heading that way this turn. The military unit maneuvering might get a little bit tight down by Sidon and New Hong Kong if barbarians show up, but we should still be able to get one archer and one axeman in New Hong Kong on Turn 54.

In other news, we finally got graphs on shallow_thought this turn. I am going to set our espionage so that it ends on the magical number, 43, and then put all of it back onto Superdeath. Here is the new power graph:
   
We aren’t done climbing quite yet. Hopefully this is enough to convince Superdeath not to come back.

I can see the logic of IW soonish, but I would still go for Writing first for a library and the first great person. I don't know what you have planned for a GP, but I would suggest a Golden Age over an Academy. An Academy is a long term investment that I don't think we can afford to make, and a GA can help us expand.

I had kind of forgotten about great people. Good point, we will have to get Writing next. I agree about the golden age vs. academy comparison. The white filler by the sheep could be a good choice to produce a scientist. It has several forests and three food resources nearby that it can temporarily borrow to rapidly build the library and grow up to size, and the it can give the sheep and corn back to Cuzco and Hittite, respectively, while it produces the scientist.