[SPOILERS] Magic Science and Mr. Cairo in Pitboss 40

[Mr. Cairo]

There's also a city spot on the Plains Hill 1S of the Marble. It's really crappy and will need to rely on at least one farmed floodplains, but as you say, every city helps at this point.

[Magic Science]

Turn 64 and Turn 65 – 1440 BC and 1400 BC
   
Upon founding Geneva on Turn 64, I passed a nice milestone for the first time in a while. My manufactured goods plus my crop yield is 64, while the rival average manufactured goods plus the rival average crop yield is 63. That fact doesn’t mean that much, and I actually dropped back below the rival average in foodhammers when some other players gained population at the turn roll, but it is still nice to see that my efforts to catch up have not been entirely in vain.

   

There's also a city spot on the Plains Hill 1S of the Marble. It's really crappy and will need to rely on at least one farmed floodplains, but as you say, every city helps at this point.

Thank you for pointing out that city spot. Now that I think about it, I agree with you that it is worthwhile to found a city there. Like you say, it isn’t great, but it should be able to produce enough to return on the investment of founding it, and it also provides some security against an attack from shallow_thought+Hitru in the south.

However, I think that founding Lhasa is not an immediate priority. Almaty and Cape Town are both better cities, and hopefully the island land will be nicer too (it wouldn’t take much to do that ), so I would like to found those cities first. Lhasa’s spot isn’t at great risk of being stolen either. The only food in the area is either in our culture (the floodplains), buried in jungle and soon to be in our culture (the rice), or in Orphan territory (the wheat). That means that only shallow_thought+Hitru could reasonably compete for the spot, and I doubt that they would want to give up Duncan Q’s only food to feed a city there. Lastly, Lhasa won’t be turning a commercial profit for a long time after its founded, it might not ever, so waiting to found it until there is a better economic base from the rest of Incan League to support it makes sense.

And about the Incan League’s economy…it really is about to plummet badly.

   
(I really like this image)

This is a small map, so maintenance costs are quite high, even for nearby cities, and I am about to increase those costs by quite a bit with Almaty and Cape Town. I think that I can get to Sailing fast enough to have a galley ready by Turn 79 (the turn that a settler for the island should be ready to board), but it will be somewhat close, and I expect Sailing to be the last technology I get for a little while. I will use intercontinental trade routes and armies of workers spamming cottages everywhere to (hopefully) pull myself back out of the economic pit before too long. I need to try some more simulations, that's for sure.

[Magic Science]

Turn 66 – 1360 BC
   
I am sending Quechua Two to explore the rest of the world. I have a few goals in mind for this mission. One, probably the most important one, is to contact Charriu+Zalson for future known tech bonus and trade deals. Another is to see the land quality and border arrangements of the other players so that I can more accurately analyze how the game is going and how it might go in the future (also I can complain at Commodore if my land isn’t the best on the map ).

All of those goals can wait a while to be completed, and I will keep that in mind as Quechua Two travels. If I need to move him more slowly to avoid putting him in danger or antagonizing another player, then I will. For example, I don’t plan to move him next to those Traumhaft workers next turn.

   
I have been thinking some more about the idea of starting the Third War of the Leagues in the near future. I am coming to think that productively attacking Superdeath in the near future and effectively settling the next wave of cities in the near future are mutually exclusive choices. When I first saw Superdeath moving up his settler to settle Green Lantern, I hadn’t decided to settle Cape Town yet and I hadn’t even thought about settling Lhasa (thanks again Mr. Cairo). Now that I want to settle those two cities, I need to build two more settlers and a few (not sure how many quite yet) more workers. If I go for those cities soon, then that’s a lot of hammers that isn’t going into military soon. Also, some of the military that I do build will be needed to garrison the new cities.

With that in mind, I think that it is better to not try any attacks against the Injustice League in the near future. Settling my own cities is better for building up my own civilization and less likely to go wrong due to bad RNG luck or Superdeath counterattacking well and damaging me in some way.

However, I think that an attack against Superdeath thirty or forty turns down the road (rather than the ten or twenty turns I was thinking about) could work. My Civstats tracking is getting less and less reliable because people keep getting land points, but Superdeath does not seem to be doing all that well. He is the first player to six cites as of this turn, but his population is something like nine or ten, which is actually on par with me and is definitely behind the Orphans, the Reich de Traume, and the Interdimensional Rift (Charriu+Zalson, I’m not sure that I mentioned that before). Circumstances could change a lot by then, but it is worth keeping in mind just in case.

Lastly, it should be noted that Superdeath now has his horses hooked. On a similar note, he does not have Wonder Woman's corn or wheat or The Flash's corn improved.

[Mr. Cairo]

What does Superdeath have Green Lantern right now? While there may not be time/resources for a full scale war, perhaps a quick strike just for Green Lantern (possibly even razing it so we don't have to defend it) could be something we can do soon-ish?

[Magic Science]

Turn 67 – 1320 BC
   
I swear I’m not bloodthirsty, the wars come to me.

I accepted the peace treaty offer. I could see that two Traumhaft warriors were advancing on Quechua Two, so declining the treaty would have meant at best a delay in his mission and at worst his untimely death. That was a strong motivator to take peace, and I couldn’t think of a good reason that I would want to be at war with Coeurva during the next ten turns. There aren’t any city spots that I’m racing him for and I’m not planning any aggressive moves towards him.

As for why Coeurva declared war on me, I think that he was almost certainly just fishing for a peace treaty so that Quechua Two doesn’t disturb his micro. I wasn’t planning to do that anyway, but he can’t have known that. Also, this declaration of war lends further credence to my earlier prediction that he declared war on Superdeath to try to get a peace treaty. Maybe I should be doing more such declarations of war, at least in the stage of the game before Alphabet.

As an aside, this declaration of war has made me realize that there is one category in this game that I am actually very well equipped to win: the war-count war. Charriu and Zalson are lapping the field in the post-count war, and I lost the actual game on Turn 43, but victory in the war-count war is still within reach. Currently, here is how everyone stands in the war-count war (disclaimer: I have no clue about Charriu+Zalson’s wars):

RFS-81 and haphazard1: No wars.
shallow_thought and Hitru: One war with me.
Coeurva+OT4E: Two wars with Superdeath, one with me.
Superdeath: Two wars with me, two wars with Coeurva+OT4E.
Me: Two wars with Superdeath, one war with shallow_thought+Hitru, one war with Coeurva+OT4E.

That may seem like a two-way tie, but it isn’t. You see, I get to decide the rules of the war-count war (), and I say that in the event of a tie, the victory goes to the player who has wars with the most different players. That puts me in the lead.

   
Back to the game, this is where Almaty is about to be established. It will have an archer to defend it right away, and an axeman a turn later. It will build a terrace first, then a library, and then I plan to have it produce a Great Scientist for a golden age. The scientist should be done around Turn 100 unless something goes horribly wrong. The two workers in the area will do the necessary chops and build the necessary improvements to see the scientist plan through, and then they will go spam cottages to boost the economy. Or maybe one or both of them will go to improve the island. I haven’t worked out the micro for that project yet.

It is also worth noting that The Flash still has no culture (the tiles I can see read 50% MarvelDC 50% Barbarian). Winning a culture war for the corn isn't going to happen, but I might be able to steal it away for a few turns if Superdeath doesn't finish an ikanda there soon.

   
The Unlucky Orphans have ivory now. Sadly, I don’t know when they obtained it, as I haven’t been checking that tile every turn. I guess this means that they have Iron Working, so they will probably be settling the contested jungle belt between us sometime soon. That’s unfortunate, although not unexpected.

What does Superdeath have Green Lantern right now? While there may not be time/resources for a full scale war, perhaps a quick strike just for Green Lantern (possibly even razing it so we don't have to defend it) could be something we can do soon-ish?

Superdeath currently has two axemen in Green Lantern. One has Combat I, and the other has Combat II. You are right that we should consider making a quick strike against Green Lantern. Three chariots would have good odds to take the city, and I could probably scrape together a force like that before too long. Perhaps by Turn 80. The trouble is that a single impi would mean that an attack would need more units to succeed, which puts us right back face-to-face with the problem of not having enough hammers to both attack and expand. Also, a quick strike would definitely have to result in razing Green Lantern. Building enough units to reliably hold the city would, again, put us face-to-face with the same problem. Also, there is the potential that Superdeath doesn’t let us get away with a limited war and counterattacks us in retaliation to burning Green Lantern. Still, it is worth consideration.

[Magic Science]

Turn 68 -1280 BC
Superdeath didn’t play Turn 67 until after me, he played the turn last, and he logged out without playing Turn 68, so I was pretty worried when I logged in.   I was afraid that he has seen my settler in position to found Almaty and had moved up an impi or two from The Flash to try to stop me. However, it turned out that there was nothing to be worried about…
   
…unless you are shallow_thought or Hitru.

I’m not sure what is going on between the Unlucky Orphans and the Injustice League, and I am curious about it. What makes this particularly interesting is that I don’t think they had met before last turn, or maybe after I played the turn before that. I have a screenshot showing that they hadn’t met on Turn 63, and I remember that they still hadn’t met until last turn, but I don’t have another screenshot of the diplomacy screen between now and then to verify my memory. Maybe Superdeath just met them and is scouting? Maybe he saw their borders but didn’t meet them and is just now showing up with an army? Maybe there is some sort of border conflict between the Unlucky Orphans sixth city (Evil End) and the Injustice League’s seventh city (Deadpool, which is surprisingly the first seventh city), and Superdeath is doing something similar to when I advanced Axeman Three on Duncan Q in the aftermath of the Judgement of Turn 61? I will be very interested to see how long this war lasts and if anyone loses any cities. I should be able to tell if anything is happening even if they don’t lose cities, as I can see both of their graphs.

If this turns into a real war, then we may have an opportunity.

   
Besides that, everything is going according to plan. If I can get Sailing on Turn 76, as it shows that I should now, then I think that I can have a settler on the island by Turn 80. There wouldn’t be enough time to send any units before the settler, so a worker and a second escort unit would have to come in the second trip to the island. If Sailing takes longer than that (not that unlikely due to settling Cape Town and switching tiles about), then the island city will be delayed, as the galley is the bottleneck for this project.

   

Also, there are two Almaty-related things that I want to point out.

One, I have a trade connection with Superdeath now. I am thinking of sending him a crab for crab trade unless we decide to attack. Maybe I will even if we do decide to attack to try to lure him into a false sense of security. It would certainly have a diplomatic cost, but a deception like that might mean that a potential attack has to face less units (if he moves his units elsewhere because he thinks the border with me is safe).

Two, Superdeath can boat Almaty from the fog with galleys if he stages one tile north of The Flash. At least Superdeath doesn’t have Sailing yet, so it’s not an immediate concern. Still, it would be silly to discount the idea of a surprise strike when we ourselves are considering one. Although I suppose that a surprise strike won’t be a concern if Superdeath doesn’t get his act together and get culture in The Flash soon.

[Magic Science]

Turn 69 – 1240 BC
   
When I logged in, I found that Superdeath had offered me a corn-for-corn trade, which brought the question of “What do I do about the Injustice League in the near future?” to the forefront. In the end, I decided to accept the trade.

If I end up not making any aggressive moves against Superdeath, then trying to build up a friendly relationship by accepting this deal will be a good move.

If I do end up making aggressive moves against Superdeath, then rather or not this deal will prove to be a good move is a bit more complicated. If this deal gets Superdeath to move some garrison units away from our border because he thinks that I am friendly, then that is good. However, if by attacking during a corn-for-corn trade I upset him and get him to devote more units to a vengeful counterattack that he would have otherwise, then that is bad. It might even result in both.

As for rather or not I am actually going to make aggressive moves against Superdeath in the near future, I am having a very hard time deciding. I think that I can rule out a large-scale campaign against him. I don’t have an advantage in production or technology, and Superdeath made peace with shallow_thought+Hitru after one turn, so a big war would be a horrible, likely inconclusive slog for both of us. A big campaign would also take a lot of hammers away from expanding and developing.

The other alternative is a limited strike against the Injustice League. However, the problem with those is that Superdeath may not let me get away with a limited strike. He could decide to vengefully counterattack in force, which would produce the same kind of horrible slog that I want to avoid by not making a big attack. With that in mind, I think that a limited strike intended to capture and keep Green Lantern and The Flash would not be a good idea. If he has a captured city to fixate on, I think that the chances of the limited strike turning into something far longer are much greater.

The only aggressive option left is to attack and raze either Green Lantern or The Flash. Of those, I think that The Flash is a better target. It currently has less defenders (so it would take less units to raze), it is a better city (so destroying it would hurt Superdeath more), and destroying it would let Almaty take control of the riverside corn that is currently in MarvelDC territory. The problems are that Superdeath could still try a counterattack, that even a small addition to the garrison could cause the attack to fail before it starts (so the hammers in chariots would be wasted), and that even a small number of hammers invested in military are hammers that aren’t going to expansion and development.

Like I said, I am not finding this to be an easy choice. I will have to come to a decision by next turn, though. Horses are hooked next turn, and if I am going to attack then I need to start building chariots.

   
Besides those deliberations, two very disappointing things occurred this turn.

The first is what you can see above…
 
…the island in the north actually is a one tile tundra wasteland. The scouting work boat will find out rather or not it even has seafood next turn. It probably doesn’t.

   
The second is that I was a noob and misclicked Sidon’s only garrison unit out of the city, putting it into unhappiness. It just so happens that this turn of lost foodhammers and commerce delays Worker Seven and Sailing by a turn, because that’s just how it is this game.
Lastly, while I am on the topic of things good badly, I suppose that I should take the time to show a demographics screenshot…

   
…
How long will it take for someone to attain twice my Crop Yield?

[Mr. Cairo]

One note, when getting those kind of trade deals, I tend to think it preferable not to accept the actual deal, since that's public. Instead, if I agree, I just send the deal back to them. Of course, at that point they could agree making it public, but at least then it's their decision.
I do it this way now because in the past, I've unthinkingly accepted iron-iron deals, alerting a neighbor they were about to be attacked by making it public.
It also makes it easier to break if necessary. Attacking while a public deal is still in place may just colour every other player's impression of you in this game, and every subsequent one (or it might not, RB can be a pretty mercurial place when it comes to these things).

Another thing, I don't think we should worry too much about potential counter-attacks bu Superdeath when considering an attack against him. Superdeath doesn't have catapults or massively overwhelming force, so with axes, spears, and archers, our cities should be fairly safe. Warefare at this stage of the game, before catapults, heavily favours the defender.
If Superdeath continues to poorly garrison his border cities allowing us to get in effective first strikes (ie: charioots against axes), then I'd say go for it, and let him worry about how to break our better defenses.If he wants to completely wreck his game by whipping his civ into the ground to crush a minnow like us, then so be it. But I can't imagine that actually happening.

On a related note, is Superdeath still at war with shallow_thought/Hitru?

Also, that island is going to be worth settling for the IC trade routes alone, but only once we have Currency.

[Magic Science]

One note, when getting those kind of trade deals, I tend to think it preferable not to accept the actual deal, since that's public. Instead, if I agree, I just send the deal back to them. Of course, at that point they could agree making it public, but at least then it's their decision.
I do it this way now because in the past, I've unthinkingly accepted iron-iron deals, alerting a neighbor they were about to be attacked by making it public.
It also makes it easier to break if necessary. Attacking while a public deal is still in place may just colour every other player's impression of you in this game, and every subsequent one (or it might not, RB can be a pretty mercurial place when it comes to these things).

I agree with your assessment and will do that in the future.

Another thing, I don't think we should worry too much about potential counter-attacks bu Superdeath when considering an attack against him. Superdeath doesn't have catapults or massively overwhelming force, so with axes, spears, and archers, our cities should be fairly safe. Warefare at this stage of the game, before catapults, heavily favours the defender.
If Superdeath continues to poorly garrison his border cities allowing us to get in effective first strikes (ie: charioots against axes), then I'd say go for it, and let him worry about how to break our better defenses.If he wants to completely wreck his game by whipping his civ into the ground to crush a minnow like us, then so be it. But I can't imagine that actually happening.

I think that I am going to go for a limited strike on The Flash with a force of two or three chariots. I should be ready to declare war on Turn 78, and the city should burn on Turn 79. I will also move a few more garrison units into Almaty and New Hong Kong to stop any counterattacks that Superdeath may try.

On a related note, is Superdeath still at war with shallow_thought/Hitru?

No, they are not at war any more, unfortunately.

Also, that island is going to be worth settling for the IC trade routes alone, but only once we have Currency.

About that, I just logged in for a second and…
   

…I never doubted it for a moment, I would vote for Commodore if he ran for emperor of the world, etc.

I think founding the city will be an immediate profit even without Currency. It will add one commerce to our six mainland cities (Cape Town will be founded before the island) via trade routes, it will be worth four commerce immediately from the crab tile and its own trade route, and I calculate that it should only increase city maintenance by six. It is also worth founding soon to start working towards claiming the whales so that all of our others cities can grow more.

Also, I have realized that having a one tile island as our final survival bunker actually has some benefits. Sure, it won’t be able to pump out garrison units quite as quickly as if there were more land tiles, but the enemy can’t land next to the city. This means that attackers will always have to suffer the -50% amphibious assault penalty, they won’t be able to inflict collateral damage, and they won’t be able to bombard down the city’s defenses until frigates. If I last until someone has frigates, then I will consider it a victory. 

Besides that good news, I regretfully must report another case of from myself.
   
Somehow, I misclicked with Quechua Four AGAIN!  I didn't even think that I had selected him yet! Maybe I actually misclicked to a different tile than I thought and set a route? In any case, this stupid debacle has cost us four foodhammers and two commerce so far (and a workerturn and possibly a turn of Sailing), and Quechua Four is now in a position where he can’t get back to Sidon until Turn 72. I guess that I will move one of New Hong Kong’s garrison units to Sidon on Turn 71, then Quechua Four will return, and the garrison unit can return to its place by Turn 74.

[Magic Science]

Turn 70 – 1200 BC
   
This turn, Quechua Two spotted a settling party for RFS-81+haphazard’s fourth city. The tile they are on doesn’t look very appealing for a city. I guess that there is either good stuff that I can’t see or they are going to continue on to another location. Also, you can see that Coeurva+OT4E are getting ready to settle a city in the region too. I can’t think of another reason why they would be building a road into the wilderness.

About that topic, it is interesting to note how the number of cities everyone has stacks up right now. The Unlucky Orphans and the Reich de Traume, the civilizations that I considered and still consider to be leading the game, have six cities and five cities, respectively. Meanwhile, Superdeath is already up to seven. I have actually caught up to Coeurva+OT4E in cities with the founding of Almaty, and I have a decent chance of surpassing them for a moment when I found Cape Town on Turn 72. The reason that the two top civilizations are the top civilizations despite their average city number is that their city sizes are larger. Bad Beginning, shallow_thought and Hitru’s capital, is up to size 7 as of this turn, and I saw that Coeurva+OT4E’s second city was up to size 5 a little while ago.

   
I am still going to build some chariots to attack The Flash, but Superdeath’s rising power should be noted. If it spikes enough, then I may call off the attack. The attack may also be called off if he brings an impi to reinforce the city, as he has done in Green Lantern.

It should also be noted that Superdeath completed an ikanda in The Flash last turn and in Green Lantern this turn. On the current plan of attack, I will be one turn too slow to strike before cultural defenses emerge in The Flash, so I will have to see if it is possible to speed it up without sacrificing too much. Cultural borders don’t swing the odds against us very much, though, so attacking before they pop isn’t that big of a concern.

   
Here is where we stand after I played on Turn 70.

I am trying to figure out how best to manage the Incan League in the coming turns. The problem I am running into is that none of the things we can build seem to be very good. I am about to have seven workers, which seem to be enough in my simulations, so I don’t think that I should build more of them. I only need to build two more settlers, so there isn’t a great demand to build them. Are libraries good enough at this stage of the game to justify building them (beyond the one in Almaty for great person purposes)? Should I just start building barracks and more units for defense or offense? I haven’t ever tried to optimize and think about my game so much before, so I don’t have an innate sense for what I should be doing. It should be fun to try to find out, at the very least.