It's Chevalier's Thread and He Can Do What He Wants To

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

No chance - he's got nothing but plains between him and the camp, and I only have the slingers on hand to pursue. We're nearing turn 50, so we have about 10 turns of classicism left. Barb camp would be worth 3 points - so we can't touch it without ruining the Dark Age.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Sorry, sorry, sorry! I know I owe everyone a lot more reports! I have been a terrible reporter/player this game.

However, in my defense, at the start of August I took my summer break, and then school started up for me as soon as I got back, which means the ample time I had for reporting in June and July dried up entirely. As a sampler, here's my rough daily routine these days:

0500: Wake up, run 7 miles. 
0630: Back from run, in shower.
0700: Dressed and on the road to work. Maaaaybe have time to squeeze in a turn if I shower or run quickly enough, but certainly no time to report.
1600: Home from work, able to take a turn. But I've also gotta do lesson plans for the next day, take care of grading, etc. This is the best time I have to do a report, but there's lots of other demands on this time. Can't always guarantee it. 
1800: Girlfriend home from work, make dinner together.
1900: Dinner finished, time for family time. Really don't wanna sequester myself in the office to do a Civ report now.
2100: Bedtime. Probably the second-best time to do a report, but I'm also working on reading through Gibbon's Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire (on vol. IV now, the reign of Justinian and the early Byzantines), and this is prime reading time. 
2200: Bed, to grab 7 hours before the next day. 

So, I'm struggling to find time to squeeze in proper, detailed reports. I apologize for that. I'll try and get one up tomorrow morning, if I can - might skip the run - but here's the highlights:

1)My play has obviously suffered from my hurried, er, play. Lost a slinger to a fresh irruption just when I thought ih ad things under control.
2)No city-states in sight, anywhere. Met the Archduke, who has eaten 2 city states and is at 5 cities. He's got twice my science and culture, as well. Twice the pop will do that. 
3)Met Emperor K, who is in second place. I bet the Archduke ate his city-state. Maybe that means England/the Netherlands will fight? It also means that the Archduke's city is the distant civ we glimpsed from the far coast of the island.
4)The eastern half of my island is flat, useless fuckin' desert. Screw that place. 
5)I really feel like I'm slipping behind. Best remedy I can think of is Magnus->Settler wave, not sure I can wait to get the Plaza up and running fully first.

[Grotsnot]

Oof, that's rough. No rest days for the runs? Though I bet sleeping in has a higher priority than reports too 7mi/day is fukkin' impressive. Makes me miss the treadmills at my old complex.

And sheesh how the heck did Archduke get two city-states already?? I saw one event during the turns I subbed, do you remember how long ago the other one was? Sounds like we really got screwed by the map. ETA on eating Granada?

Are Emperor K and Archduke close enough for Arabia to have any influence in a future Anglo-Dutch war?

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Oof, that's rough. No rest days for the runs? Though I bet sleeping in has a higher priority than reports too 7mi/day is fukkin' impressive. Makes me miss the treadmills at my old complex.

And sheesh how the heck did Archduke get two city-states already?? I saw one event during the turns I subbed, do you remember how long ago the other one was? Sounds like we really got screwed by the map. ETA on eating Granada?

Are Emperor K and Archduke close enough for Arabia to have any influence in a future Anglo-Dutch war?

The other was pretty soon after I took over again - got a coupla screenshots. Two turns are missing, never did fix those (it seems I mapped my Steam screenshot key to something other than default and can't be arsed to look it up). 

As for Operation Conquista - we are 1 turn away from Magnus, then 5 turns before we can chop. Then it'll take about 4 turns to sail over there from the capital, so we're looking at turn 60. 

In far more dangerous news, we have 10 turns left in the Classical Era, but only 1 era point left. If we stumble on any more natural wonders or civs in that time, we fail, so I'm going to put a temporary hiatus on exploration in an attempt to avoid that. 

Anyway, turns, uh, 50 & 51 (only missed reporting 1 turn thanks to a lengthy silence from Emperor K earlier this week). 

Situation, start of turn 51:




With the barb slinger dead and only one injured warrior in sight, I tentatively probed forward with my own slinger, which proved to be a blunder - there was a fresh warrior behind. The injured warrior marched north for Zobrist, and the fresh one wiped out my own slinger. I'll have to withdraw (again). Also gotta delay archery to crank out #3 again, from Zobrist. The lost 35 hammers hurts - that's like half a monument or something. And I STILL don't have my luxuries connected. I'm really falling behind the snowball here, and in danger of falling out of contention entirely. More on that when we get to the Archduke.




Clean up one barbarian. At least that slinger won't bother us anymore. Still need to find the camp that direction. 

The big news is in the far south, though. The vessel of exploration (ANS Abu Bakr) finds the Dutch on the south coast of that snakey island we've been mapping:




Let's check out the Archduke's stats...(I would edit these screenshots together to save space, but again, time):




Two cities available for trade, but I found that conquered cities have a few turn's delay. His Empire score will leave no doubt that he has 5 under his belt - 2 self-founded, 2 conquered. He has 2 luxuries to my 0, and he's got a higher pop in his home cities. Demographics:

11.8 8.1

A lot of this is his higher initial population - remember he grew like a weed - which he's used to snowball. Early pop growth gave him a slightly earlier pantheon, which translated into GotOS and even more culture, which translated to an earlier Magnus, and now earlier chops - his demos are double mine at this early stage, and his military is tops in the game (of course). Early culture is so important in R&F, because it's all about Magnus. Furthermore, he has the English just to his south (we'll meet them on the interturn), which means they're close - which means he took the English city-state, almost certainly, and his own. 

This is devastating news for us, of course - we could have met both city-states (well, not sailing this direction, where we're blocked by the map and the Dutch borders. D: ) and gotten the PP inspiration, but instead we're still stuck with one. Plus, we launched our ship BEFORE the Archduke - and have had to explore for 20 turns to find anything, while he had time to build/chop 3 ships out of hsi capital and just conquer Emperor's city-state before the English could do anything about it, so they must be CLOSE. Just rough luck on the map and on the random directions I chose to explore - maybe there's a really close city-state just to my east? But yeah, I'd say so far our difficulties keeping up stem from exploration, the lack of food at our capital, and my screwups. Well, we'll see if we can catch up. Sure isn't as easy as playing Korea! 

Turn 50 scores:






Situation, start of turn 51:




61 is the start of the Classical Age. Need to avoid era poitns desperately. 

I pull all the slingers back: 




A meeting of minds in the south. Looking at Archduke's borders, yep, the conquered CS is right over the water there. Damn, that was a lucky placement. Good by the Archduke to exploit it the exact same damn way I was planning to. 




Similar to the Archduke, minus the 2 free cities:



Again, significantly outpops me. 

6.8 8.1 :

 We're actually slightly leading in science - I wonder if that's Cain working hte tea? Forgot to check. He and Archduke both have campuses (campi?) under construction. We'll need to get on that as soon as our holy sites finish. Need to start thinking about the discount. 

Scores:

[RFS-81]

Eight hours work, and then more at home? Or do you have a really long commute? Either way, that's rough!

I haven't really looked into the dark age policies yet, but before halting exploration, I'd reconsider if they're really worth it. What policies are you going to use in a dark age?

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Eight hours work, and then more at home? Or do you have a really long commute? Either way, that's rough!

I haven't really looked into the dark age policies yet, but before halting exploration, I'd reconsider if they're really worth it. What policies are you going to use in a dark age?

Well, I teach. It's not a bad commute, but I only have 40 minutes of plan time this year to meet with students, other teachers, etc., so I'm having to do a lot more at home than I did in the spring. I'm training for a marathon, as well, which cuts into the morning time - leaving me with not a lot to do more than quick turns/posts. :/ I really like maintaining a high standard of reporting, but it's gonna be challenge for the next few months. I'll still do my best, of course! 

As for halting exploration, it's also important to note that it's not that long a halt - the galley in the south is stuck by Dutch borders and needs to backtrack for ~5 turns or so to find new ground. So we're really only pausing for about 5 turns there. 

As for the Dark Age policies, the real one is monasticism. I'll be getting a holy site and then campuses online right around the same time, just as we enter the Dark Age. That will be a real boost to science at the expense of culture, but I'll ahve Magnus by that point. It should be a nice slingshot to a Heroic Medieval Age, right as our Mamluks come into play. Right now I'm contemplating a Mamluk invasion of the Dutch across the narrow seas - Archduke would have to park his navy in the straits to stop me, and that means exposing himself to England. So a lot will depend on the diplomatic situation in the future, but I think we have an opportunity.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

I'm worrying my forehead over those scores. 

The main issue is Archduke's commanding lead, and my own slow start. Right now, I'm not sure who's going to stop the Archduke from rolling to another victory - Japper? Rowain? Emperor? Tbh, none of them has really blown me away this game. 'course, it's not like I've been great, either. Part of that might be because I'm indulging myself and telling a story I've always wanted to tell ("Wait...Chevalier, did you deliberately choose this naming theme in the hopes that someone would ask about and you could write a...hang on...100 page story?" To which I reply: I can do what I want) - brainpower I used to analyze my own play and plans in the Korea game I've instead diverted to how to tell the story of the Miracle at Minute Maid, or what I want to cover in my post on the ALCS Game 6. I've certainly never done the same sort of sit-down analysis with this game, and while I had brief spell of playing more attentively before my vacation, since then my tight schedule has dictated kinna quick turns. 

But here, 'tis Friday afternoon, my significant other is out with friends for the next 6 hours, and I've got a good chunk of time to devote to whatever I want! Including a deep dive on my own game and a potential gameplan to catch up to the Archduke and roll to victory! :D 

So naturally I'm gonna go work on the World Series post some more. 

Priorities, people. Remember why we're here.

[Grotsnot]

Hey, if you're not winning, at least make it a good story

Re: stopping Archduke: Does anybody use Joint War in MP? Even if it's declined it at least signals "hey you should build up to dogpile later"; shame it doesn't have "give us 10 turns to prepare" anymore. And AFAIK AI diplo doesn't really have a way to warn the target of your intent. I guess you can denounce (does anybody use that either?) but that's a pretty noisy signal. Sending a Joint War VS You offer to your target?

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Hey, if you're not winning, at least make it a good story

Re: stopping Archduke: Does anybody use Joint War in MP? Even if it's declined it at least signals "hey you should build up to dogpile later"; shame it doesn't have "give us 10 turns to prepare" anymore. And AFAIK AI diplo doesn't really have a way to warn the target of your intent. I guess you can denounce (does anybody use that either?) but that's a pretty noisy signal. Sending a Joint War VS You offer to your target?

I really wanted to use one against Archduke in PBEM8, but for some reason I couldn't offer it to Alhambram. It's hard to coordinate, as well. Might be easier in this set-up - Emperor K has to be pissed about his city-state falling to the Archduke, and they have to be close to each other - the strait is narrow enough that Archduke got out 3 quick galleys and seized the CS, which I'm almost certain is on England's starting island since Emperor showed up so soon afterwards. If the English navy can pin down the Dutch, then I might be able to get a solid force over the water and into Archduke's backlines, at which point Emperor's navy will steamroll me as well and go on to win the game I might have a shot. 

The main issue is my start is so damn slow. Both other players have campuses nearing completion, and Japper's had a Holy Site for 15 turns. My Holy Site is still ten turns out, and then I still need campuses - and then I'll still be lagging in culture! ("Could have avoided that if you just took Rome like everyone said, Chevalier." Shut up.)

Well, we'll play it out. Game is still young, but these early snowballs matter. 

World Series Part I: Meet the Mets

“Good pitching beats good hitting.” 

That was the narrative as the Royals headed into the World Series for the second time in two years. Good pitching, in general, beat good hitting. The teams that got the furthest in the posteason generally had the best pitchers in the whole game - but a good offense could only carry you so far (witness the Blue Jays). And the best hitters would always be beat by the best pitchers. The Royals had had the best contact offense in the league - nowhere near Toronto’s power, but the team struck out less than any other team in years. However, the team they would be facing would test their abilities to the limit: The New York Mets.

But before I introduce the Mets, let’s dwell a little more on what the Royals had accomplished to this point. Baseball is hard. Since the modern divisional organization began, when the playoffs expanded to 3 rounds (up from 2 before that), just one team had won back-to-back World Series: the New York Yankees. No team had ever returned to the World Series and won it the year after being defeated in the Series. The last team to even get close? The 2011 Rangers, god help them,* who lost to the Cardinals in 7 games 1 year after losing to the Giants in 5 games. The Royals had the chance to be the first.

I’ll let Rany explain:

“Back-to-back American League pennants. That’s just jaw-dropping. The Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Indians, both original AL franchises dating back to 1901, have never won back-to-back pennants. The Royals have gone to the World Series as many times in the last two seasons as the White Sox have in the last 95.

If we go back to 1986, the year the Royals’ run of futility began, they have won two pennants in the last 30 years. In a 15-team league, you would expect a team to win an average of exactly two pennants in 30 years...When it comes to pennants, the Royals have wiped out an entire generation of futility in the last 13 months. If they win the World Series, they will have paid off that debt in full as well.

...Or try this: over the last 40 seasons (1976 to 2015), the Royals have won four pennants. Do you know how many American League teams have won more in that time? One: the Yankees. ONE.

...Or consider this: the Royals have won as many playoff games (18) in the last 13 months as they had in their entire 45-year history before 2014 (18). The difference is that they’ve only lost 8 postseason games in the last 13 months, compared to 25 before.

And along the way, they’ve proven themselves almost impossible to kill. They came back from four runs down in the eighth inning of an elimination game in the Wild Card game last year; they did the exact same thing in Game 4 of the ALDS this year. They came back from down 3-0 in the seventh inning against David Price in Game 2 of the ALCS.

They’ve overcome adversity over and over again. Their eighth-inning uprising in Houston in Game 4 came one inning after Terrance Gore, who can not be captured using traditional weaponry, and representing the tying run in a 3-2 game, was called out on replay after stealing third base because he came off the bag for an infinitesimal amount of time, which as we are learning is almost unavoidable for any basestealer who doesn’t either go hands-first or bowl over the fielder at full speed, both of which are unacceptably dangerous as a general basestealing tactic. (Also, the umpires apparently ruled that the back of Luis Valbuena’s wrist, the only part of his arm that was in contact with Gore, constituted a tag.) This was followed by back-to-back home runs from Carlos Correa and Colby Rasmus to give Houston a 6-2 lead…and the Royals came back from that the next inning like it was nothing, tying the game and putting the go-ahead run at third base before an out was even recorded.

They overcame an ill-timed rain delay and Ned Yost’s frustrating reluctance to deploy his best relievers earlier in games to close out the ALCS, because Wade Davis is a cyborg and cyborgs don’t care if their arm has to rest for an hour in the midst of a relief appearance. I’ve seen better baseball teams, and I’ve seen more resilient baseball teams, but I’m not sure I’ve seen a team that was both. They are the team I’ve been waiting to root for my entire adult life.

- Rany Jayazerli

The 2015 Royals were undoubtedly the most fun I’ve ever had watching a team in my life. One year removed from Papa’s death, I still felt a kinship with him after every game - I’d shoot a quick glance skyward and exchange a few words with him after every game, rain or shine. It had been a blast, a joy I had not imagined possible in the world of sports - especially not cursed Kansas City - but if they fell short here, at the finish line, it would all be for naught.

The Mets would put them to the test.




“Good pitching beats good hitting.”

If there was ever a team with good pitching, it was the 2015 New York Mets. The Mets had an up and down first half: They had an 11 game winning streak in April and a 7 game losing streak in June. On July 2nd, after getting swept by the Cubs, they found themselves at 40-40. In the first half, their offense only scored 3.48 runs per game. But that surged to 5.11 in the second half on the backs of regression and a number of shrewd moves round the deadline.

FIrst, they traded for Juan Uribe and Kelly Johnson to drag some significant holes in the lineup much closer to league average. Then, they promoted one of their top prospects, Michael Conforto. Next, they added Oakland closer Tyler Clippard to an already strong bullpen. And finally, the big move, on the trade deadline, they acquired Yoenis Cespedes for pitching prospects Michael Fulmer and Luis Cessa. And that was after a trade for Carlos Gomez fell through. On the afternoon of July 31, they were 52-50 and 3 games behind the NL East leading Washington.

The Mets were just starting a series against the Nationals: 3 games. A Mets sweep would see them tied for first. A Washington sweep would basically end the Mets’ postseason chances (the National League Central, as you may recall, hosted the top 3 teams in all of baseball - the Cardinals, Cubs, and Pirates. No hope for a wild card for the Mets). It was the most important series of the Mets season.



That evening, Wilmer Flores, just two days after an emotional scene when he thought he had been traded in the Gomez deal, hit a dramatic walk-off home run to start a huge series with the Nationals. The Mets won that night - and the next - and then the next. The Nationals would fall apart, culminating in this, while the Mets would go 38-22 the rest of the way, blowing by them to win the division by 7 games. The Mets comfortably won the division but went 1-5 the last week of the season, one of those losses being Max Scherzer's 2nd no-hitter of the season.




The anchor, the pride and joy of the Mets’ team, was their rotation. Spearheading the crew was Matt “the Dark Knight” Harvey, a 26-year old pitcher with a powerful arm that overwhelmed batters. Harvey had just returned from Tommy John surgery, and controversy erupted when his agent implied that he would only throw so many innings over the course of the season - including the postseason. As the Mets closed in on the playoffs, though, Harvey tossed out the innings limit and vowed to be there for his team. 




 A young rookie, acquired from the Blue Jays, was Noah “Thor” Syndergaard, a lanky blond-haired pitcher with the best fastball in the majors.  Thor had the best raw potential of any of the Mets' pitchers - the next year, he would duel Madison Bumgarner in the Wild Card Game in one of the best postseason games of the decade. With development, he could be a perennial Cy Young candidate. 




Perhaps the most talented member of the staff, though, was Jacob “no superhero nickname” deGrom. With long, wavy hair and a bewildering variety of pitches - all delivered at lightning speeds - deGrom was, at his best, practically unhittable. As we sit in 2018, he’s easily the best pitcher in the National League, maybe even all of baseball. In 2015, he was just as good.





Rounding out the Mets’ pitching staff was rookie Steven Matz, a lean southpaw from Queens with great deception. Matz could fool batters, and was the sort of soft-tossing lefty that had totally shutdown the Royals that year, while KC thrived on fastball pitchers. Matz was perhaps the man most capable of totally negating the Royals' offensive efforts - but thankfully he would only start one game. 




, and in the bullpen was Bartolo “The Ageless Wonder” Colon (an obese pitcher capable of eating innings like candy), Tyler Clippard, the former A’s closer, and the star of the ‘pen, Jeurys “La Familia” Familia (they can’t all be great nicknames), who could be spoken of in the same breath as Wade Davis - Familia had tied the Mets’ franchise record with 43 saves that season, and had not allowed a home run since July. 


With such dominant pitching, the Mets had constructed their team the opposite of the Royals. The Royals had gone for elite defense over power - but the Mets didn’t need defense, since opponents could not put the ball in play against them. Thus, they prioritized players that emphasized the bat over their skills with the glove.




Epitomizing this Mets philosophy was second baseman Daniel Murphy. Murphy had been a pedestrian second baseman, but somehow in the NLCS he had become Superman (in keeping with the Mets’ superhero theme): homering a record 6 times in 6 consecutive games.  Murphy had singlehandedly propelled the Mets over the Dodgers in the NLDS, and New York had trounced Chicago in the NLCS, sweeping the Cubs, never trailing for more than half an inning in the entire series. Murphy’s power outburst made him the most dangerous hitter in baseball that October by a country mile.

The rest of the Mets’ lineup was similar: Lucas Duda was an okay defensive first baseman but a good bat. David “Captain America” Wright had been a Met since 2006, the last time the team had made the postseason, and while his defense never fully recovered from a back injury earlier in his career, he remained a threat at the plate. Shortstop Wilmer Flores we already met hitting a walk-off home run. Catcher Travis D’Arnaud had come over from the Jays in the same deal with Syndergaard (the Jays had received RA Dickey in return, who was plastered so badly in the ALCS that year), and in the outfield the Mets had Yoenis Cespedes, a fantastic hitter and poor defender (who somehow won the AL Gold Glove award for best defender in left field over Alex Gordon despite being traded to the NL halfway through the season ???? it didn’t make sense then and it doesn’t now). Also available were Juan Lagares, Michael Conforto, Jose Uribe, and Curtis Granderson - all solid defenders but more dangerous bats (Granderson, for example, had great defensive instincts, but a noodle arm kept him from throwing runners out from the outfield, unlike Gordon or Cain).

Overall, the Mets were a dangerous team - if they could strike their opponents out. They had done that better than any team in baseball over the course of 2015, but the Royals had struck out less than any team. The Series would come down to whose gameplan would work. The Mets’ hitters would beat the Royals’ shaky starters, no question. The Mets could count on 3-5 runs a game. Could Kansas City answer?

If the Royals could put the ball in play - as they specialized in - the Mets’ defense would falter and the Royals would have chances. If the Mets could keep the Royals off the basepaths, their solid offense and lights-out pitching would carry them through. In other words, if good pitching indeed beat good hitting, as the saying went, then the Royals were finished. But if they could turn the old chestnut on its head? Well, then it was anyone’s Series.

I’ll let Rany close it out:

...let’s be honest: if they don’t win this series, it will probably hurt a lot more than if they had just succumbed to the Astros two weeks ago yesterday. I said this before the World Series last year: getting that far actually made me more nervous about losing than I was before the ALDS or ALCS, because as much as the 2014 Royals had accomplished already by that point, the difference in the way they would be perceived had they won the World Series versus had they lost dwarfed everything else they had accomplished.

They lost that World Series, as nobly as a team can lose, but still: they lost. They lost Game 7, and with it, their chance at permanent glory. I thought that was the end of it. I thought that it would be a long time before they’d be back in this position. If you had offered me a proposition after Game 7 last year, that the Royals would next play in the World Series 7 years later, I would have taken it. I probably would have taken 10. I know how precious these opportunities can be, and I just didn’t want to live another 29 years without another chance at a championship.

It took 12 months. The Royals made it back to the World Series without even surrendering their title as AL champs. And it means that if they win the World Series this year, it will change the way I perceive last year’s team as well. The 2014 Royals aren’t a self-contained story anymore. They now feel like only the opening chapter of an even greater story, the Preamble to the 2014-2015 Royals, and if this season ends with a championship, the MLB-sanctioned Championship Blu-Ray better not start with Opening Day. Because in my mind, this Championship Season would not have started this April: it would have started when a pop-up settled into Salvador Perez’s glove in Chicago last September, when this crazy ride began.

The 2015 Royals aren’t just playing for themselves; they’re playing for the 2014 Royals too. If they win, they’ll forever alter the way they are perceived, and they’ll forever alter the way last year’s team is perceived too. The 2015 Royals have already proved that, as Eric Hosmer wrote, the 2014 Royals were No Fluke. Now they have a chance to prove that the 2014 Royals were actually champions themselves. They have a chance to turn Unfinished Business into finished business.

...But win or lose, I’m going to try to enjoy this series without worrying too much about what the outcome means for the legacy of the 2014-15 Royals. They will always be champions to me. I just hope that at the end, the world sees them the same way.

*No fanbase in history has probably ever suffered as much agony as Rangers fans those two fateful days in October 2011. But that is a story for another day.

[Grotsnot]

Think a Friendship offer to Emperor would be properly received as "hey we should to work together to keep Archduke from running away with it" or get interpreted as "I am weak enough to ask for help, please come eat me to build your own powerbase to stop the leader"?  

New York had trounced Chicago in the NLCS, sweeping the Cubs, never trailing for more than half an inning in the entire series.