[Spoilers] Shallow Thought and Hitru's series of (unfortunate?) events

[Hollybombay]

How would you rank everyone's chances of winning/ect atm?

[shallow_thought]

How would you rank everyone's chances of winning/ect atm?

Ooh, I do love a good chance to ramble on.

This game seems both finely balanced and a bit random to me, so the short answer is "who knows?". All three of the major powers have some advantages. RFS-81 is clearly out, Charriu may actually beat him out of the door now and Magic Science is all turtled up by hasn't got the land. That leaves three.

Superdeath has put together a really nice economy, fueled by his selection of wonders, but I thin he is a little behind on land, and hence pop and raw productive power (he seems to have been slow in getting Calendar and the resulting happy). In some ways he has the most to gain by splitting Charriu's land equally, as that will reduce his relative disadvantage. He has the edge in culture on our border, making him relatively secure, but I haven't checked out his border with Elkad enough to know how he stands there. Player wise, he's no vet but has a bunch more games under his belt than I do.

Elkad had the largest empire, but I'm not sure what he has been doing up until now - a lot of his military is in danger of becoming obsolescent, and his economy doesn't seem to have been that great. The switch to Representation enabled by the Pyramids may change that significantly though. Elkad is the most experienced player by a margin; possibly rusty, and I don't know where he ranked back in the day, but I suspect he will have an edge in any "even" battle. Having OT4E as an involved ded-lurker will do no harm there either.

We've somehow maintained an edge in pop yield, probably by hooking more happy earlier than others. We've also got a temporary edge in knight numbers. Our small edge in city numbers gives us more build queues but costs us in maintenance, which I've not yet managed to get on top of. We need to get our cities grown and working workshops, rely on a constant stream of units and some wealth builds. We don't have any fancy wonders, and are not in a position to push for any first-to bonii in the near future. This suggests a primarily military strategy. We can perhaps take advantage of the fact that there are no really big military techs coming down the pipeline for a little while (Gunpowder is nice, but needs Nationalism for the draft and Mil Trad for cuirs to really exploit). We can afford to be (just) behind others, grab some KTB, while focusing on land. Tech is Engineering, on to Lit for the epics, Gunpowder, push for Mil Trad the hard way. I expect this game to be decided by Cavalry at the latest.

I'm pleasantly surprised at being in this position. We've had our share of neighbour luck, and having Hitru around has been a major help, both in specific advice and in prodding me to raise my game. I think we're narrowly third: this is because of our economy, and because of me. I'm not in my comfort zone - I'm an SP, tech, build type, and I suspect I'll make more military errors than the other two (note that I didn't manage to capture a city on the first turn of the war, unlike them).

SD is second. I actually really like his position in some ways, but I think he is a little vulnerable to being overpowered through sheer numbers or just being outbuilt by the larger empires. He has the least ancient trash dragging on his economy though.

Elkad gets the nod because of his more experienced status, his fundamentally strong position due to the earlier play (land grabs, Hanging Gardens etc.) and being in Rep already.

A lot comes down to who gains most from the Charriu war. I hope that he was least prepared for us, but he may see us as the most vicious backstabber and decide that we deserve the most pain. Who is going to have to deal with the most CKNs? Whether it's Elkad or us that finally gets RFS-81's cap is also a factor. I will probably roll the dice and push for that in the next two or three turns.I expect us all to turn on MS after Charriu and RFS-81 are out, because any one of the big three attacking one of the others throws the game. Alternatively, SD and Elkad decide that I'm overextended with a two front war and no slavery, form an alliance and break us. Our best defense against that? Build more knights, always.

[shallow_thought]

Dodged a bullet - I'd left DQ ungarrisoned, and Charriu had a chariot in the area, bounced by our war dec. It could have hit from MS lands if the bounce was lucky and he realised, but nothing happened. So, spears heading to deal with that and to cover workers (I've had to temporarily use a knight). I'll get a scout back into MS lands ASAP, but right now our Immortals are busy. Next turn I think we declare on RFS-81 and move in. Hopefully two turns is enough for Charriu's force to be engaged with Elkad or Superdeath.

We have Iron Claw, now called Nero F. Only size one, but came with a courthouse. It even has two chops available, so granary will be replaced quickly. Sadly our knight died despite 75% odds (being me I ummed and aahed, actually promoted a treb to CR2 to get 25% odds, then changed my mind and went for the 75% after all ). So we finished with an Imm for XP at 95%.




Next turn, Karlabos. He can hit us with those spears at 75% if he wants, but I didn't want to hang back - speed matters here. Pushing straight on to Siren is an option, given that it too is on flatland. Let's hope we win our share of 75%, 65% battles from here on. We'll need our collateral for the cap though, and can expect to start running into real defenders soon.

Graphs and demos, may help cast light on earlier ramblings. I keep feeling that they overstate the strength of our position somehow, but remain pleased that we managed match Elkad in power so quickly without trashing everything else. GNP is a worry though. Oh, and I've lost graphs on MS while trying to keep tech visibility on Elkad and get it on SD. Build more courthouses...

[Old Harry]

I'd be tempted to change those infra builds for more knights - you can't have too many...

[shallow_thought]

"I'd rather have lucky generals than good ones." - Napoleon Bonaparte.

Sadly, I'm not really either. We had 95.6% odds to take Karlabos with a knight. It died . Charriu had left an unsupported maceman in range, however, so I took revenge at about the same odds. Got more experience on an Immortal actually taking the city, now renamed Olaf. Sadly, the true for this turn (that I know about) was that I promoted it medic, when I should have promoted it sentry. I mostly forgot to pillage the now neutral cottages and hamlets, but made a start and will finish the job next turn - we'll be using farms and workshops.

We also declared on RFS-81. Elkad has a small stack hanging around in the area (not in the screenshot, of course ), which is a little concerning, but we need to get rid of this culture, if nothing else, and free up more space.

I'd be tempted to change those infra builds for more knights - you can't have too many...

Well, I'm not ignoring that advice. Wherever infrastructure is non-critical it goes over to military builds. Knights where they can be built in sensible time, with some longbows and crossbows in the mix from less productive cities. I think it's worth a stable at JS2 before more knights. AA and HH we're on GPP detail during the GA - they'll get back to actually building stuff next turn.




Of course, that screenshot was from before the end of our GA. Turn rolled when I finished, and ouch. Back to 25% breakeven despite our shiny new bank. That's an extra turn to Engineering. I think that BeaB will have to go on wealth builds for the next tech; the cap needs an Apothecary badly (we lost a health declaring on RFS-81) but can then make use of its stable. We could do with those courthouses, but can't have everything (yet).

[shallow_thought]

Elkad grabbed a city, as did Superdeath. We're staring at Siren with our two-mover stack and wondering what to do with it (the screenshot is from early in the turn - all the two-movers ended up on the hill, while our one-mover stack has just entered Charriu territory, and will need covering with a big pile of knights if it moves further in). Current thinking is to leave the city alone briefly, while moving on the capital, then raze it in a turn or two when SD gets close. But a lot depends on what Charriu does. This is what he currently has in his cap - there's a little more around as well. But if he's abandoning the west to make a stand here his big stack will be in position before our collateral. Also shown, some of SD's troops. He has 11 Horchers and 5 knights around - the latter wounded but alive, averagely lucky b******. We've got 11 knights (ignoring medic).




If we do push on the cap, it'll take us a minimum of 4 turns, and he's guaranteed at least one chance to hit us with CKN's. I've not seen any cats though, and I don't see any bridges... Still Charriu is a long way from being gassed, so some caution is in order. But I'm probably going to walk my stack up and see what happens.

[shallow_thought]

Civstats suggested that Charriu lost two cities; I only saw a notification for one: do you only get notified about cities you've seen, so that any he's refounded recently I would miss? Makes sense, I guess. Anyway, one of them was Wing Raptor, so Elkad is close to Charriu's cap. Nonetheless, I have crept forward. I think we have enough power in the field right now to deter Elkad from attacking us unless we make it very, very easy for him. Politically, I'm prepared to consider letting Elkad have Charriu's cap while I get RFS-81's. That would imply moving a lot of our force back into our territory, which would make quite an impact on our ghastly economy - I've had to start wealth building again at BeaB. But Elkad just offered OB, so I'm hoping he wont attack without direct provocation. Such as pushing too hard for Charriu's capital, say ...

Can we even do that? We have 11 knights, a wellies, 6 cats, 1 treb and trash. Another treb and knight are 2t behind, 2 more knights are 3t away. he has 7 CKN, 4 macemen, 5 spears, axe treb, 2 archers. And most of that has to be taken seriously on a hill, behind 60% initial culture. I think we might have to pull back - particularly as Elkad has just gone for a third GA, with Police State, Slavery and Theocracy. We'll probably try to grab the island city, but need to see what Charriu has packed in there.




Elkad is in no position to threaten RFS-81, so I bombarded the culture down to zero. With a little luck we'll grab his cap next turn. And then probably need to build a load more cats to replace losses. Ho hum. In the meantime, Superdeath is heading east in force. Given his crab-crab last turn I assume he's going for Magic Science. Hope he has fun, and loses a lot of knights.

[JR4]

Congrats on your first MP kill! That capital is a nice addition to your Empire for sure. How will the geopolitics shape up in 20 turns?

[shallow_thought]

Congrats on your first MP kill! That capital is a nice addition to your Empire for sure. How will the geopolitics shape up in 20 turns?

Thanks. I'm not sure I'd actually expected a kill, let alone the first of the game, when I started - but there you have it. GG RFS-81; hope you get a chance to play more Civ IV in the future, whether MP or SP. Cost us 5 cats, 2 swords and an Immortal; not too bad. Sadly, the city itself has been pillaged and whipped to hell and back, and NR will be gratefully grabbing not only the pigs but also that rice, at least initiialy. Pillage gold is nice (111gpt) but comes at the expense of infrastructure - we're left with a granary and a lighthouse. We'll make something of the place though, Elkad willing. Oh, and we used our settler. ICS is the order of the day down here, along with caste artist culture pressure.




We've not pushed on Charriu. He and Elkad are still in a nicely hot war, with cities changing hands and (presumably) unit losses, so let's keep it simmering. I still plan to take a look at Magissa, but even a single archer is probably more trouble than its worth right now. Let's hope also that SD hasn't built enough collateral and it starts to hurt against MS. MS offered fish-fish and we echoed back. He's safe from us for a little while. So, as far as geopolitics are concerned, keep stirring the pot, hope the opposition has to pay more for their gains than we did, get our new territory up and running while not actually taking losses ourselves.

Speaking of that, our economy is in tatters and may worsen as some of these cities come out of revolt. But we can't afford to stop building units (wealth in BeaB last turn was a mistake). We need to replace those cats; K can probably contribute after its forge is finished. We need to keep the power graph ticking up, and to have units available capable of countering a concentrated stack of knights from SD within the next few turns.

[shallow_thought]

So, we're probably going to be offering peace to Charriu soon, but not until I've pillaged some gold and all the roads around Proximate Peril. I'm wondering whether to pillage his iron - I didn't before because he had a second source and I didn't want to waste movement onto a hill: nah, I like him being able to build CKNs to threaten Elkad. Speaking of whom, his stacklet has vanished, and towards his core. Maybe he thinks that SD has pushed too hard towards MS? Charriu's force at Liquid Flame doesn't look that strong - I'd have expected Elkad to push on there.




Magic Science seems to understand that he's under threat and is massing what he can. Hitru pointed out that we should try to get graphs on him again, but it will be a couple of turns yet. That's not a bad stack to counter massed knights, I guess, but I wonder if he is aware that SD has an Impi able to see it from the roaded hill in our land and then pop back out of sight? Actually, can't he see the Impi because of the peak? I should really get to grips with the LoS rules .




Our economy continues to be horrible, although cutting unit supply costs has helped (as has some pillaging, a little). With the cap and BeaB able to push knights, we can start to get up courthouses. Maybe consider building Notre Dame for fail gold? Problem is that we don't need it particularly, and I don't know if Elkad does either.