Okay, I solved the issue I was having with Fraps - swapping Civ over to DX12 made it impossible for me to take screenshots. So I missed a turn, but I took a bunch to take up for it. I'm not sure how much to write - I've had a ton of thoughts about this game over the last couple of days, but they were disorganized and I've forgotten a lot. Still, since I seem to be the only one updating his thread regularly, let me do my best to give you guys an overview of how the game stands.
Turn 122
Here's where we open the turn. I've pulled back my entire navy to concentrate around Cain, Davis, and Perez - these are the only places I can upgrade. Like I said, the Dutch fleet is gathering along the hostile coast and seems to be waiting for its own upgrades. I have Mercenaries, a Policy Swap in 4 turns, and the DoF expires in 8 turns, so in all probability Archduke and I will be shooting at each other within the week. His milscore stands at 850 to my 520 at the moment - not great. I'm building ships as fast as I can from all ports, having suspended HC production as an obviously wasted endeavor. I may get a few for home defense, but honestly, if I lose the fleet, the game is lost anyway, so as far as I see it there's not much point.
Visible are 7 quads and 7 galleys (not all pictured - some are tucked into the lakes behind his two coastal cities). I also counted 6 Heavy Chariots with my missionary when I scouted his core, so right now that accounts for 175+175+168=518 of his ~850 strength. Another 300 strength means probably 10 more ships of some kind, so I'll be facing 27 ships escorting a land invasion force. Against that, I have 6 galleys or caravels. I finished the tech early, foolishly, in an effort to take Mohenjo-Daro, so now I can't build more. That's not a total disaster, though, since it forces to me to concentrate on quadriremes. Within 5 turns I will field at minimum 20 of those.
So the balance of forces seems roughly even, at least in terms of ships. I need to stay within ~150 strength points of Archduke to be able to estimate naval parity. However, the situation of course is more complicated than that.
1)On the grand strategic level, his Sevens will outclass my Frigates. They have +5 strength, both defending and attacking, which means I'll need slightly higher numbers (looks like I have those). I'm also contemplating moves to steal a Great Admiral. The English take a medieval one soon, then I can look at Harbor Shipping and Faith purchasing. That might be the best use of my available faith at the moment - one GA would neutralize any qualitative advantage the Dutch fleet has.
2)Geographically, I'm vulnerable. Most of my cities sit on the coast facing the Dutch, and even Moustakas and Hosmer are vulnerable due to the ease with which Archduke can bypass my southern cape. I'm forced to defend an arc stretching from Perez up to Davis and then down to the cape near Cain. Obviously, attempting to defend all of that would be foolish. I intend to upgrade and then concentrate my navy off the coast of Cain. Perez will serve as an early warning in case Archduke thrusts north at Perez and Davis. If he instead strikes east, towards Moose and Hoz, I can intercept him by sailing due south. Finally, I cover the central cities of Cain, Escobar, and Morales.
3)The tight upgrade schedule is forcing weird deployments on both of us. Archduke won't be able to upgrade all of his ships in one go, while I can get most (provided I have the funds for it). Many will have to upgrade at Port Royal (former Hattusa) or on his southern coast, before deploying around either of his long flanks.
4)Turn order favors me for once. There's a possibility that I can strike first and catch his navy still scattered along these ports - think of it as a Spanish armada type maneuver. Taking the offensive against Sevens is clearly the way to go, so if I see this opportunity I will take it.
5)Geopolitics. Rowain has only one or two harbors that I can tell, which means his naval threat to me is limited. He also doesn't seem to have a grudge against me, and has a juicy target in Japper nearby. By contrast, the Archduke will have to conserve some strength against Emperor. He has between 15-20 turns from the expiration of our DoF to the expiration of his DoF with England, by my calculations. That means he can't fling everything against me - or he could, but only at grave risk of English irredentionists coming after him from the rear with lots of GA-boosted Frigates.
That's all in a week's time. I still hope to avoid war (with the Archduke). For now, though, I can farm experience off these barbarians in the north. The first promotion level on these quads would be a great pickup.
At home, defensive preparations are in full-swing and have been for a few turns. A wave of Feudal-Pyramids builders is coming out (one Liang builder in the north has SEVEN charges! :o) or is out, and every single choppable on my island is going into the navy. No time for subtlety here. Here's southeast Arabia:
Moustakas and Cain either are or soon will be stripped totally bare, but it's kicking out a shitload of quadriremes. Every builder is conserving one or two charges to go and harvest crabs for upgrade gold. We'll do it on the turn I need the gold, not before.
Yes, this is going to harm my chopping potential long-term. But if I lose the coming fight, then the game is over anyway. We won't be totally crippled with a bare island - Faith-purchased campuses can still work, and Harbors are quick to build. That'll be about it for infrastructure, really. If I had Goddess of the Harvest, I could do both at once, but the damn Americans snatched it from me.
Instead, our only infrastructure at the moment are the inland cities of Zobrist and Morales:
The Plaza complex is taking shape and will be a powerful economic engine in the endgame, if I live that long. Zobrist is nearly ready to add a Wat, and can place a Campus soon. Morales is 4 turns from finishing its campus, and we'll start filling it up with libraries and madrasas soon. Next will be a theater square - the only one I plan to build - discounted, and if the game somehow lasts long enough, a holy site to continue faith expansion.
A view of northwest Arabia's war prep:
In the remote northeast Arabia, Gordon and Colon are finishing builders and will chop a few quads while they can. Why is Liang still at Colon, even though I finished the builder there? Because I'm stupid, that's why.
At Gordon, I have a dilemma. The builder is out soon, and I can have Magnus in place in 5 turns. But Square Rigging finishes in 6, so do I wait for Magnus for all my chops? Right now I'm thinking one unboosted chop and one boosted chop. OR I don't move Magnus at all - Moose still has 2 Crab harvests that would benefit from Magnus's effect.
Speaking of gold, note how dramatically my income has fallen as my navy expands. We've lost half our net profits and it's going to fall further. I don't have Conscription in place, but will soon once I swap out of Limes at my next policy swap. Organic spread of my faith will also help matters a little bit:
That will be +4 GPT soon, +2 more once I get Rios settled after the settlers' long wanderings. I shouldn't have diverted him to the east, that cost me a lot of turns, but at the time I thought it was a good move. Just Archduke didn't cooperate, sadly.
My gold generation reminds me that I really do have an incentive to finish Harbors as my next Infrastructure builds if I live that long. Not only do I get gold, but i get Science from them as well through the medieval era thanks to my Heroic age! Every harbor is another +2/3/4 gold and science, which is not to be sneezed at all. They also add to my GA points, and if only they still gave trade routes they're a no brainer. As it is, though, prior to this age they just added gold, which I didn't need until this military buildup, so I've been neglecting them.
Abroad, England is finally expanding again, settling Mohenjo Daro's island:
That's sure to annoy Archduke. I regret the missed opportunity there, but the Netherlands sit perfectly astride my two major expansion possibilities - if only I'd had the military strength to take Hattusa first! We come back to the heavy production investment Arabia needs - the Netherlands have outbuilt me this entire game, leading in all categories pretty much all the time, with the sole exception of settlers. That's the main reason I'm still in striking distance.
Just for fun, a view of the Netherlands:
So, to wrap up, I mentioned earlier that I hope to avoid war with the Dutch entirely. Why not have it out now, and settle things? Well, two reasons.
First, our military build up has seen us both race past the other civs in terms of armed strength. I have double Rowain's military score, and most of his is not navy. Emperor is weaker still, and Japper is not only weak but pathetically backwards in terms of technology. Pretty much the only civs prepared for an all-out war right now are me, and Archduke's Netherlands.
Second, check out the civics tree:
We're finishing up Civil Service in a few turns - which means Alliances unlock. Now, alliances in R&F unlock lots of interesting possibilities. Research Alliances boost both partner's tech, Religious Alliances remove religious pressure, etc. Military alliances let you share vision.
Oh, and they give you bonus strength against any enemy you and your ally are at war with.
So here's my thinking: Archduke and I each have lots of weak neighbors. We are both the only strong civs on the map, really. What if I could get him to agree to a Military Alliance? We both cut loose and can all but annihilate most of the other civs. Rowain could hold out inland for a while, but Japper's cities are all coastal - he's Indonesia! Emperor's already lost one war with the Archduke, and GAs won't save him from vastly superior numbers of 7 Provinces.
I think this makes sense for both of us. We can knock all the other players out of the running with 30 turns of safety. We're first to Square Rigging - Rowain might be close, but he has no harbors to build from. We have larger navies already. Why smash them into each other and let potentially Rowain or Emperor or Japper stage a comeback, when we could go crazy against the rest of the world? It's a bet, of course - which one of us will better exploit? Who will be stronger at the end of the Alliance? Almost certainly the Archduke, I think - he has the stronger military as it is, and is a better general than me. But I think it'd be damn fun to try it, and strategically I think I have better odds than in just taking on the Dutch head-on right now.
Here are the scores and an overview of my land:
