[Spoilers] Gröt and Bänzai lose several screws assembling a Sweedish Strategy

[Grotsnot]

So to apply a mostly-guessing filter to these already crude maths, I'm estimating:
ADMF have a 51-55% chance of taking the city next turn.
We have a, I dunno, 40-45% chance this turn.

Something like that. I am quite conflicted. Thoughts, Banzai? I know it's a Friday night when most "normal" people do things like "leave the house" so if I don't catch ya here or on Steam by bedtime I'm gonna roll a percentile die and on a 1-45 will attack and pass on a 46-100.

Crack out the incense fellas, RNGesus needs our prayers

[Grotsnot]

...21. Okay, let's try this!

Ah, but first, I learned that a reorder of the units would yield better results:



All right all right, just over 50% odds! (wait, maybe exactly 50? It's late...)

While I was running those numbers, Banzai got on!

[11:59 PM]
Banzailizard:
    I am home if this is still relevant

[12:00 AM]
Grotsnot:
    aye
    was actually about to attack but noticed if I rejigger the attack order the numbers are better
    so been messing with that

[12:01 AM]
Banzailizard:
    did the Danes get a ram or anything?

[12:01 AM]
Grotsnot:
    can get it down to an average of exactly 0HP o_o
    no they plinked it with an archer

[12:01 AM]
Banzailizard:
    doing what test scinarios?

[12:01 AM]
Grotsnot:
    and have 3 zerkers
    didja see the post yet?
    well, 2nd-to-last post now
    bottom of page 5

[12:02 AM]
Banzailizard:
    sec
    just got home

[12:02 AM]
Grotsnot:
    figured
    How's the lappy?

[12:02 AM]
Banzailizard:
    I have been drinking to much to really be in a fit state to decide, mostly sober but even still kind of our of it

[12:02 AM]
Grotsnot:
    hahahaha
    sounds like a christmas party

[12:02 AM]
Banzailizard:
    indeed

[12:03 AM]
Grotsnot:
    so we get down to an average of 0 and Denmark gets -2
    tense

[12:03 AM]
Banzailizard:
    hmmm average over what spread?  even right like flat distibution?

[12:04 AM]
Grotsnot:
    uhhh
    as in roll average on every combat and handwave away ups and downs as balancing each other out
    which is dubious I know but I lack the credentials for a random series with a feedback loop

[12:05 AM]
Banzailizard:
    ok doesn't really tell me much but I think we went over this 2 nights ago anyways
    also sorry for disappearing I crashed when I got to NJ

[12:05 AM]
Grotsnot:
    no worries
    tis the holidays and we have a general plan in place

[12:06 AM]
Banzailizard:
    so we are looking at us haveing a coin flip to take it this turn or the Danes having a slightly better than coinflip next turn?

[12:06 AM]
Grotsnot:
    yeah basically. I think we're technically slightly better than a coinflip and the danes are slightly better-er
    the dice said try it so that's how I'm primed at the moment

[12:08 AM]
Banzailizard:
    probably the alcohol talking (and that is a very viking phrase) but go for it

[12:08 AM]
Grotsnot:
    8D

[12:08 AM]
Banzailizard:
    thoughts on racing to grab Whales?
    from my long somewhat rambly post?

[12:09 AM]
Grotsnot:
    ok so optimal order is Archer, Huscarl, Zerker, Zerker, Longship. ONWARDS TO VALHALLA
    holy shit this might work
    MWAHAHAHHAHAHA FUCK YES

[12:09 AM]
Banzailizard:
    did we get it?
    !?

[12:09 AM]
Grotsnot:
    squeeeeeeee

[12:09 AM]
Banzailizard:
    fuck yeah
    nice nice nice
    Praise be to odin

[12:10 AM]
Grotsnot:
    https://i.imgur.com/IzUuLmM.jpg

[12:10 AM]
Banzailizard:
    save now
    even if turn is not done
    save

[12:10 AM]
Grotsnot:
    ok so I should not have moved the Apu builder to the forest but oh well

[12:10 AM]
Banzailizard:
    well save and continue

[12:10 AM]
Grotsnot:
    saved!

[12:11 AM]
Banzailizard:
    but this way we can say we got it and did not reroll

[12:11 AM]
Grotsnot:
    hahah true

[12:11 AM]
Banzailizard:
    it would be a tragity to loose it

[12:11 AM]
Grotsnot:
    ;_;7

[12:11 AM]
Banzailizard:
    tragedy*

[12:11 AM]
Grotsnot:
    oh also Norway has 2 GAs so that's a thing already

[12:11 AM]
Banzailizard:
    man nothing better than wasting the dane's turns and then grabbing the city anyways

[12:11 AM]
Grotsnot:
    hahahahaha

[12:12 AM]
Banzailizard:
    plus extra amenities

[12:12 AM]
Grotsnot:
    PRAISE RNG...odin?

[12:12 AM]
Banzailizard:
    Loki?

[12:12 AM]
Grotsnot:
    I need to find a Norse God what starts with a G
    or RNLoki
    he can be a Random Number Lemma

[12:13 AM]
Banzailizard:
    ha

[12:13 AM]
Grotsnot:
    (I think that's a correct use of "lemma' but it's been some years since CS theory courses)

[12:13 AM]
Banzailizard:
    uhh not sure we use Lemma to describe like a shorthand well known derivitive in econ
    like shepards lemma

[12:14 AM]
Grotsnot:
    yeah

[12:14 AM]
Banzailizard:
    or hoteling's lemma

[12:14 AM]
Grotsnot:
    they all have names
    so as far as I know it's "mathy thing that does a thing"

[12:14 AM]
Banzailizard:
    slutsky equasion for life
    (application of the chain rule)

[12:15 AM]
Grotsnot:
    that does sound vaguely familiar
    something something calc I

[12:15 AM]
Banzailizard:
    ok with Wolin down we can focus on Russia and the ERE

[12:15 AM]
Grotsnot:
    yessum

[12:16 AM]
Banzailizard:
    no need to rush those whales now with the salt

[12:16 AM]
Grotsnot:
    yay!

[12:16 AM]
Banzailizard:
    should have an even spread of 4 amenities for each of us
    maybe 6 for each of us

[12:16 AM]
Grotsnot:
    so in Wolin I'm thinking site a Harbor and then patch the Water Mill

[12:16 AM]
Banzailizard:
    yes
    sounds good

[12:16 AM]
Grotsnot:
    yeah I was gonna put together a more substantial response to your post but haven't gotten to it yet
    I missed a few amenities on my list
    there's another Salt in France, Gypsum in Spain, and Silks in Anatolia

[12:17 AM]
Banzailizard:
    kk formula should still work more or less
    unless amenities work diffrently than I thought
    then we would need another varriable

[12:17 AM]
Grotsnot:
    yeah formula should work
    duplicates sadly don't do shit unless our cousins are willing to trade
    ...which now probably is just if Norway is willing to trade >_>

[12:18 AM]
Banzailizard:
    IDK if we are willing to trade right now
    only once we have cities and want to grow

[12:20 AM]
Grotsnot:
    oh yeah not yet
    Also I founded Cherson, hopefully that was correct. I didn't see a contradiction in the post but may have missed something <_<

[12:21 AM]
Banzailizard:
    I think that is fine
    I was going tto do a calculation but I gennerally think airing on the side of produce now is better

[12:21 AM]
Grotsnot:
    I haven't sited their Commercial Hub since *I think* with Wolin we only need 1 more District finished for a discount
    bought a trader though

[12:22 AM]
Banzailizard:
    check it but 1 trun will not make much of a difference
    where did you buy the trader?

[12:22 AM]
Grotsnot:
    new city

[12:22 AM]
Banzailizard:
    can it reach anything good?

[12:23 AM]
Grotsnot:
    Riga and Ladoga I think are the farthest, will check if it can reach Apu or Wolin

[12:23 AM]
Banzailizard:
    might not have done it then, but not aweful eaither
    road will be useful
    but I would hold off on buying any more in russia until we can get good routes from trade post expansion

[12:23 AM]
Grotsnot:
    ha, excellent, it can exactly reach Apu
    which should get us a nice road through those hills and the swamp
    ^o7
    it'll get +3 cogs at least

[12:24 AM]
Banzailizard:
    yeah I forgot about the road
    that will be good
    and 3 cogs is not bad I guess

[12:24 AM]
Grotsnot:
    also a food

[12:24 AM]
Banzailizard:
    was trying to avoid too much growth

[12:24 AM]
Grotsnot:
    ahh
    that makes sense

[12:25 AM]
Banzailizard:
    we want to save that for the +50's

[12:25 AM]
Grotsnot:
    true true...

[12:25 AM]
Banzailizard:
    still worth it to get units down there asap

[12:25 AM]
Grotsnot:
    well it doesn't have much natural food, with the Iron and Mercury

[12:25 AM]
Banzailizard:
    kk

[12:25 AM]
Grotsnot:
    so it won't pass 2 for a while

[12:25 AM]
Banzailizard:
    we also need to have the gold to buy some units in the south soon

[12:26 AM]
Grotsnot:
    we are at 84gpt

[12:26 AM]
Banzailizard:
    hmm k
    how are we looking on GA?
    denmark will beat us still?

[12:26 AM]
Grotsnot:
    with 500 stockpiled and some pillage should be rolling in
    yeah they are ahead still
    but because Norway got the 2nd the next GA is Lindisfarne Era and costs a lot more

[12:27 AM]
Banzailizard:
    kk

[12:27 AM]
Grotsnot:
    Denmark is 170 away to our 200

[12:27 AM]
Banzailizard:
    how is the med looking>

[12:28 AM]
Grotsnot:
    will be transiting Gibraltar next turn or the one after
    the Knarrs mixup cost us something like half the movement from last turn
    not like we could have done anything about it other than see it coming far enough off to stall the settler a turn
    we're already working all our science tiles

[12:29 AM]
Banzailizard:
    right
    sounds like a good turn thoguh overall

[12:30 AM]
Grotsnot:
    Wooty wooty Wolin praise be to Odin
    ok if that's not a sign I need sleep I don't know what is

[12:31 AM]
Banzailizard:
    post the save

[12:31 AM]
Grotsnot:
    good shit, will pass along and get a 13-15 post up tomorrow. And will post up this for the Wolin capture tonight :D

PRAISE BE TO RNLOKI

[rho21]

This sort of calculation is generally far too complex to bother with. The most effective option for getting odds here is to simulate a bunch of trials, say 1000, and see how they fall out (a.k.a. the Monte Carlo method). This is generally pretty easy to do, as you just need to know how each step affects the next and have the spreadsheet skills to get a bunch of results calculated.

PRAISE BE TO RNLOKI

[Grotsnot]

Oh hey that's a good idea! I'll need to find or set up a simmer then. Thanks!

[Banzailizard]

This sort of calculation is generally far too complex to bother with. The most effective option for getting odds here is to simulate a bunch of trials, say 1000, and see how they fall out (a.k.a. the Monte Carlo method). This is generally pretty easy to do, as you just need to know how each step affects the next and have the spreadsheet skills to get a bunch of results calculated.

PRAISE BE TO RNLOKI

I think that in one of the logs we did discuss something similar, though I did not explicitly call it a Monte Carlo. I was suggesting using a program with a loop command of some kind to run though a bunch of rolls.  Problem was I am not sure of two things:

1. If the rolls are evenly distibution or follow some kind of specific distribution like a normal distribution which would cluster them around an average.

2. If other factors such as the map sead change this in some way (I have had a game where that happened)

[Grotsnot]

Ok, posting here about the mysterious draft disappearance poked it into recovery last time, let's try it again




At least I have the plaintext of it if it doesn't recover. Hoping to get that draft of T13-18 back though

Edit: yup, that did it right away. What gives, RB?

[Grotsnot]

[Brian Shanahan]

Cherson's too far north. In real life it's in the Crimea down in southern Ukraine.

Also, you're better off without Sligo, it's a dump.

[Grotsnot]

Ah, dammit! I was using the ever-scientific CK2 map and mistook Korsun for the un-Anglicized form of Cherson

It's been a pain to find something that's accurate AND recognizable. Dnipro looked like the best modern fit but didn't ring a bell. I know, I know: my knowledge of Easern European geography is basically limited to Paradox maps, so what do I know? But still, wanted to find something that felt like a stronger "click". That being the wrong location for Cherson explains why that one did click

Upon further review, I see Zaporizhia as an option. Is that satisfactory?

(alternatively, rename it Korsun )

[Banzailizard]

You know I have taken enough Russian history that I should have known that too. Hey maybe it will act as misdirection for the other teams. Anyways thanks for always doing the compiling on this Grotsnot.