[Spoilers] Gröt and Bänzai lose several screws assembling a Sweedish Strategy

[Banzailizard]

Ok quick post on the home front now that I am home.
Here is Russia.  Odessa will grow next turn giving us another 60 points.  the harbor in Odessa will be worth 50 points in 3 turns as well. Zaporizhi finish its CH for 50 VP and the granary is for housing so it can grow. 

Gnezdovo will finish its HS soon, and then can start in on a CH which will be chopped out.  The HS will generate some faith and the CH will be worth 50 VP for trade.

Kiev is also finishing its CH before the end of the game thankfully, though that and a granary with some more growth might be all we get out of it.

Voronezh can maybe get some growth.  Depending on how fast it grows it might not be impossible to swap the stone from Kiev, work the hoses and the hill to maybe squeeze a CH out for 50 VP.

Smolensk is going to build a shrine then a stave church.  It will also try to get out a CH with a chop.  That would make it quite valuable as a VP generator.  For reference Helsingfors with a HS shrine and stave church and a similar set up is raking in 30 faith per turn, equal to 6 VP per turn. with 20 turns left to go it will be worth 120 VP or the same as two pop somewhere.  Not much but nothing to scoff at. With a second 30 FPT city it would be like founding 1-2 small cities or taking another size 5. No one else is going to be generating faith like us and it cannot be tracked like gold.

Apuole and Riga are finishing settlers as well who can go out and again be worth 85 VP each.  With no gold cost that is just a production sink. Ladoga is working on an EC to help boost our amenities because there is really not much else we need from that city.

Up in Birka we bought a settler for 600 gold.  That is 60 VP but the settler alone is worth 85 VP, and that is before we put down a harbor or have even 1 pop of growth so the trade is still worth it.  It also dropped Birka's pop giving a chance for more growth there, and pushing it back up into content.  Kop finished a settler too.  Both are going to sale for the north Baltic coast to found 1 quick cities and build 2 quick harbors.  A HS or 2 as well cops and time permitting.

Really it still comes down to conquest but I think that is even going to be close enough that our growth will push us over the edge.

Of the cities left we are almost certainly going to secure Sicily and Neapolis.  Venice is very likely. NA is likely. Rome is 50/50, Pisa unlikely. Norway will likely get Cordoba and Valencia.  I am hoping the Danes are in Arles.

[Grotsnot]

Good stuff, thanks!

For easier access (and for the lurkers) here's those Arctic Dotmap sketches





The northeast of these is the same - the important difference is up in Lappland. Whether we settle on that lake north of Ladoga to maximize housing, or whether we settle as many next to Furs as possible to maximize . Unfortunately up in the arctic Furs are the only way to get even a 2 tile so I'm unsure whether extra housing without one is worthwhile.

Planting along the Bothnian coast lets us pack in 1 extra city, but with how many sites are available I'm not sure we'll get to all of them anyway. Not pictured here are 1 down in Croatia and a couple extreme spacefilling options in southern Russia and Anatolia. Can also barely see Gotland peeking out there, which makes for 3 Highly Marginal options but do give some small ROI for settling. In either configuration we also have 2 coastal around Bothnia and the river site around Minsk. Map A has 3 lake + 4 dry, Map B has 2 lake + 6 dry. So 11 vs 12 doesn't make a whole lot of difference.

In either case, the ones in Sweden+Finland and the two lake sites in the east should be our first priorities. Also need to make sure we grab Croatia before the Norwegians can. Anything after that is gravy.

And of course feel free to tweak my map - I doubt I stumbled into an optimal arrangement so easily

[Banzailizard]

So one of the reasons I chose to study economics was for the graphs.  I love when some basic information can sum up a whole story.  Here is such a graph that tells the story for this game so far.

Early on Denmark pulls ahead.  The Norwegians get some pillage in turns 1-3 but when the Danes get pop from religion and conquest they surge ahead.  Norway creeps up with pillage and religion points, then some more religion from capturing Scotland. Things start to change at turn 18-19 when the Norwegians get Vineland points.  Denmark could still pull ahead but officially they are behind.  Norway just keeps pulling further ahead.

Meanwhile back in Sweden we started to grow nice and slow.  That blip in turn 6 was our first taste of religious points from pillages.  That was all we had for a number of turns except some pop (empire score) and trade growth. Around turn 21 we started to pillage in the Mediterranean and then flipped to Catholicism for more growth.  Meanwhile the Danes were stalled first by us at Wolin then by the Norwegians though I am not quite sure how.

From around turn 27 or 28 we started to conquering the ERE and Norway has been conquering Western Europe.  The gap has generally narrowed between us though they managed to push it back out a little on turn 35.  And that is really the question when, if ever, will our two score lines cross?  After the conquests are done the lines will flat-line.  Will our slower growth be enough to push us over the edge?  If this game went on to turn 100 say, we would win without contest.  Our cities simply have too much housing with all the Russian rivers. Will we be able to pull that off in 20 short turns? I am not sure but I do hope so.

[Grotsnot]

Hey Banzai, could you take this turn? I'm posting from my phone 'cause our internet's been down all evening >

I think the main thing I wanted to be sure of is to make sure our Zerkers at Dyrr end their turns in Byz or Roman waters so they get +2 move next turn to rush up to the city. And see if there isn't a good spot to hang out 2 away from their Corps that would slow down their advance. I don't wanna be dramatic but it's possible the game will hinge on Rome

[Banzailizard]

Yeah no problem.  I sent you a message on steam let me quote it here.

I did DL the turn and take a look. Couple of things:

1. I got worried when our score read 8600 still since we had growth. Did some math looks like growth happens at the start of the turn points are awarded at the end. Good to know for end game stuff.
2. Norway took Valencia but if we take Attlea we are <300 VP away from them. They tried to block us at Dyrr but since we are going to Rome anyways its irrelevant. means they think we are going for Neopolis
3. They are blocking us in northern Sweden not sure if it is intentional or they are just moving through
4. Norway is already at Pisa's walls with a ram I expect they will take it next turn, Rome is looking dicey even if we will be there next turn. 
5. I scouted we almost 100% have Sicily secured

[Banzailizard]

285 VP. A new record for how close we are to Norway's score. We are nipping at their heals.  They have a few last bursts of points from Corduba, Pisa, and maybe Rome.  We also have a few bursts of points before we settle into only growth.

Housing is the hardcap here and there is good news there at least.  We have 12 cities with fresh water, they have 6. Even with Cordoba it would only be 7.  And we have room for more.  Again, its a question of how much growth we can get in now officially 20 turns, but most of those 12 cities will grow at least once, probably twice, by the time the game ends.  At one each its 720 points.  At two each its 1440 points. (60 per pop). Our Shear number of cites also gives us extra empire score (25 per) and extra trade score from capacity.

Anyways how about a quick tour of the empire and of our turn.
I managed to take Attalea this turn.  I pillaged the two monasteries first to be safe then moved those zerkers southeast to be closer to the water.  I think this was a mistake in retrospect for the northernmost of the two but ok. I hit the city with the - frankly underwhelming - catapult it then with 2 zerkers and 2 LS. This means that I was able to send the last zerker due west.  I would have liked to do the second zerker last to take the city with it, thus moving that unit 1 tile west, but to do so would have scarified the LS.  As it is, The LS both have promotions now so next turn they can sail 5/6 tiles then stop and promote to heal.  The Zerkers can throw themselves in the water and catch up as well. We also got a free 3 charge builder out of the deal.  Not bad at all.

Moving on to Italy, the Norwegians tried to block us.  That would have been awful...if we were going to Neapolis. Per Grot's request all the zerkers are in Byzantine waters. Our LS might die if it get's focused fired but I figured it was better to loose that than the zerker.  Ram is right there as well.  Horse moved then promoted to heal.  I stuck the HC in Dyrrhachium rather than the crossbow since I fugred we want boots on the ground. Dyrrhachium started a harbor which will finish before the end of the game for 50 more VP thanks to trade.

I tried to make a landing on the Roman coast more difficult for Norway.  I was under the assumption they had three moves as well so this position should be better.  The Corp is currently 1 tile west of the harbor the Norwegians are building.  They might get shot but nothing will be life threatening. My move to 2 LS near Balarm is a calculated risk.  I managed to kill a full HP HC meaning once our unit's get there they should roll right in.  I also hope to draw fire away from the injured LS in the Adriatic.

Here is our Russian lands.  I did some messing with the citizens that does not really show up here.  Short of it is that Tmutarakan will grow this turn rather than in 2 turns.  Cost me a little production on the harbor but we are fit to bursting with unused capacity and this will give it more tiles to work on the harbor and LH anyways. I also messed with Preslav to give it some slight growth without sacrificing building time.

I made no changes to the rest of these cities. Not sure why Smolensky is still at 2 turns for the shrine but it is.  On the bright side I captured our builder back with 2 charges.  Even standing right where we want him for a chop. As payment for this "loan" I killed the barb Horseman.  I was tempted to use the GG to grab 2 HC (one is hiding under the pin) but they are a waste of gold and his ability to see barbs has been proving useful.


Let's finish this tour by going home.  Wolin is going to get its LS next turn.  The builder just arrived in time for a chop when that is done.  We should figure out what district we want first, a HS or an Aqueduct? Again I messed around with Apuole. Settler in 3 now growth in 6.  I figured it was better to get the settler out, drop 1 pop and then not suffer 50% growth penalty back up.  Settler sooner means planting it sooner too so more growth.  The extra farm in Helsingfors gave it enough housing to to move past the 50% growth penalty. I think the last builder charge here should be used on the crabs.  The LH will give even more food that way.

Norway is blocking us in the north as well.  Or they are coming back home, but probably blocking us. We may need to play a game with them.  Hopefully they are not planning on sending their own settler.

Next turn we should probably buy a missionary for the new cities in the north.  Helsingfors would be the place for that.  I also harvested the copper but did not buy anything. Nothing seemed like it might help enough.  I contemplated buying a trader but I did not want to unilaterally make that decision.  Besides we are nearing turn 40.

[Banzailizard]

I am home on Tuesday mornings so I took a quick peek at the turn.

1. The Danes seem to be blocking both us and the Norwegians. Norway will have 2 units around Rome, we can probably get 3 in and the Danes 1. Conversely the Danes are preventing our landing this turn on Sicily.
2. Norway sent 2 units to Venice. I suggest, given the limited space around Rome, we send a zerker and the HC to Venice.
3. Norway has a navy in force around Sicily. We will land next turn so it should still be ok but you were right to worry about North Africa. We have a lot of units on the way though so there is still hope there.
4. For some reason Wolin's aqueduct did not finish this turn. We should probably let it finish but we need to talk about policy swaps.
5. Guilds will be done in 2 turns, after that it will be a while before another policy swap. Most cities will take 3 turns to get builders out. I am fine still running serfdom and producing several 5 charge builders, but it may be best to buy a second missionary to cut down the time we are running that policy.
6. For Gnezdovo, I think we should buy the marsh. If we put the CH down on the 2 food it stops growing. Maybe the Granary was a mistake but with the marsh, even if it will cost more gold, we will at least be sure to get the 60 VP from one growth. Or we wait a turn and build a farm where we are going to chop this turn. With a chop CH will be done in 11 turns.
7. Norway did not move in Scandinavia so we still have issues settling there we should discuss where we want to go.
8. If we opt not to boarder purchase we can buy a settler this turn, though it pushes back completion of the other two settlers in Apu ad Riga by 1 turn each, which is to expected. I bought in Keiv but I could see an argument for buying in Athens to allow for more growth, and settling the dalmatian coast.
9. A farm in Odessa gives it the housing to be at 4/6 and therefore boosts growth. It will be done with a Harbor next turn and can go LH for more pop.
10. Another barb horseman showed up in Russia, our HC took a beating.
11. FYI Norway has a lot of farms back home to get Oslo larger. If we go the serfdom route we can maybe do the same in Kop to good effect.

Things are looking generally bad but there is plenty of hope. We will have some settlers down soon, more trade from harbors, lots of growth trickling in. If we loose both Rome and Tunis it might be over given their Vineland points.

Currently I expect about 7-10 more growth in pop for Norway so let's be generous and say 600 points.

Rome - 790 Vp (maybe some more from growth and a harbor)
Tunis - 790 VP
Neopolis - 325 VP (375 with harbor)
Sicily - 435 VP (it has a market already)
Venice - 375 VP (it has a market already)

Using turn 40 totals:
Sweden 9210
Norway 10160

We can hit 9645 with Sicily. 9970 with Neopolis as well which I think is likely ours. Venice is less likely now but would bring our score to 10345. Tunis or Rome gets us to 11135. If we are very lucky or good, 11925 VP for all of it. At that point we pretty much are guaranteed the win.

If Norway get's Rome 10950 and with Tunis as well 11740. If they get Venice instead of us 12115 to our 9970(with only Sicily and neopolis)

Under this worst case scenario we need 2145 points to get ahead. That would be 36 more pop growth then them. Even if we settle all 6 cities (2 settlers, 3 in construction, one being bought) that means we would need 28 pop growth to win.

Assuming we get Sicily, neopolis, and Venice 10345 to either 11740, that is a gap of 1395 VP or 23 pop. With 6 cities ~15 pop of growth more than Norway (not including the founding population) which is doable.

Finally if we can get Tunis or Rome but not Venice our score is 10760 to Norway's 11325, a score difference of 565. In pop that is 10 more (rounding up) than Norway or with 6 cities 1 more pop of growth counting growth from the initial settler pops.

All this is assuming Norway does not settle anywhere else and I am not sure where they could do so safely. So our results look like this:

If we Get Sicily and Neopolis only - we have pretty much lost the game unless we get a whole lot of settlers and growth.
If we can grab Venice - more competitive of a game still need a lot of growth, might be broken by gold and faith VP, most likely Norway still
If we can get Tunis or Rome, but not Venice - same as above but most likely our win
If we can get Tunis or Rome and Venice - very likely our win.

I think the units in the Ionian sea should head for Tunis immediately to stake a claim. If Norway has any sense that is where they will head and leave us Sicily so 2-3 units will be more than enough to take that down. I am fine if we loose Rome so long as we slow them down so we can also grab Neopolis.

[Grotsnot]

1. The Danes seem to be blocking both us and the Norwegians. Norway will have 2 units around Rome, we can probably get 3 in and the Danes 1. Conversely the Danes are preventing our landing this turn on Sicily.
Yeah, annoying, but what can you do. We can still get 2 Zs, the Ram and 3 boats on Balarm next turn. Might be enough to knock it over.

2. Norway sent 2 units to Venice. I suggest, given the limited space around Rome, we send a zerker and the HC to Venice.
Fine with that if we can afford to while still having 3 units around Rome. Scout with our LS first, if Norway is already on the way it might be pointless. Or even more important to have someone in the water that can blcok/snipe.

3. Norway has a navy in force around Sicily. We will land next turn so it should still be ok but you were right to worry about North Africa. We have a lot of units on the way though so there is still hope there.
And hopefully Al-Q's horde of swords will slow them down enough for us to get over from Sicily. They won't do any significant damage to Norway's Zerkers but it's turns spent not hitting the city.

4. For some reason Wolin's aqueduct did not finish this turn. We should probably let it finish but we need to talk about policy swaps.
Yeah, that's annoying too. It doesn't need the housing right away at least. I think leave our govt on Viking for now - we need that +4 STR for another few turns. Depending on Norway's pace it might already be time to swap to Merchant Republic once we finish Guilds...

5. Guilds will be done in 2 turns, after that it will be a while before another policy swap. Most cities will take 3 turns to get builders out. I am fine still running serfdom and producing several 5 charge builders, but it may be best to buy a second missionary to cut down the time we are running that policy.
Sounds like we should swap into Serfdom once Guilds is finished, then. Don't think there's anything we need to change up right now. Hold off on the Missionary until we know we need it, the current one has 4(!!) spreads so will be around a while (unless he gets eaten by barbs)

6. For Gnezdovo, I think we should buy the marsh. If we put the CH down on the 2 food it stops growing. Maybe the Granary was a mistake but with the marsh, even if it will cost more gold, we will at least be sure to get the 60 VP from one growth. Or we wait a turn and build a farm where we are going to chop this turn. With a chop CH will be done in 11 turns.
7. Norway did not move in Scandinavia so we still have issues settling there we should discuss where we want to go.
8. If we opt not to boarder purchase we can buy a settler this turn, though it pushes back completion of the other two settlers in Apu ad Riga by 1 turn each, which is to expected. I bought in Keiv but I could see an argument for buying in Athens to allow for more growth, and settling the dalmatian coast.
Hmm, maybe skip "Caen" for now then and go for the yellow and dark-red sites from map B? Also I think if we're going to buy a Settler it should be in Dyrr to get up to Dalmatia ASAP. They aren't growing at the moment anyway due to pillaged farms.

9. A farm in Odessa gives it the housing to be at 4/6 and therefore boosts growth. It will be done with a Harbor next turn and can go LH for more pop.
Nice, nice.

10. Another barb horseman showed up in Russia, our HC took a beating.
Ugh, I'm starting to wonder if we should waste some cogs on more units in Russia. These barbs are getting annoyingly uppity. Might even be worth spending our GG - getting an HC and an Xbow is one of the better scenarios we can expect from him. Will be sad to see his radar go, though. IIRC, the converted units don't get a move, though.

11. FYI Norway has a lot of farms back home to get Oslo larger. If we go the serfdom route we can maybe do the same in Kop to good effect.
+1. Kop start on a Builder once the trader is done?

[Grotsnot]

Also, screenshots from last turn.

No combat but a lot of getting in position to contest the final 5 cities in the game:


Did a little scouting of the west-central med



Scores Banzai already covered better than I would

[Banzailizard]

So its 11PM and I am clearly investing too much time in this game.   I went through each city and played with the numbers to get a real idea of how much growth in terms of pop we can expect.  I did assume the normal growth formula holds. I could have done this via spreadsheet but I wanted to get an intuitive understand for any future games. I did not subtract from anywhere for settlers except where we are building.  I will go over the details of what each city should do tomorrow, what builds will help get growth within 19 turns what builds are a waste of production (sorry to say but the aqueduct at Wolin might have been, or maybe not, not clear when the growth penalty is applied for housing) . 

Point is, without founding new cities or anything else, we can expect 33 pops of growth for 1980 points within 19 turns.  That actually impresses me.  The truth of the matter is we will be founding new cities so that number will be higher.  Now keep in mind that those "we loose the game" numbers are the amounts of pop above Norway we need to win, not the amount of growth we need to have.  Still, even if Norway gets say 12 pop of growth and takes Rome, Tunis and Venice, we actually still have a reasonable chance provided we get out enough settlers and provided they get none.  Anywhere on my list here that will grow only 1 and is not building a harbor or a CH should stop what it is doing and be assessed for settler output.

Goal should still be to grab Venice, Tunis, or Rome, but we need not concede if we loose all three.