Civ4 AI Survivor: Season Four

[Sullla]

More responses:

* Fluffball: the resources are turned on for the individual leader starts on the preview page. I can't turn on the resources for the overview shot because there are so many that they overwhelm the zoomed out picture.

* On three of the six female leaders showing up in the first game... well, that's random number generation at its finest for you. On the positive side, there's an excellent chance that at least one of these ladies will make it to the playoff round for another match, and as mentioned we still have the Wildcard round as well. The real problem is Civ4's poor representation in general, with only 6 out of 52 female leaders (12%). It was actually a lot better in the original release version which had 5 female leaders, only for the two expansions to add Boudica and no one else while dropping 27 other male leaders.

* ArtDeco, by all means feel free to post at CivFanatics and see if anyone's interested over there. I'll drop a few links myself on my old account if it helps.

By the way, we have 77 predictions entered already as of tonight with ten days left to go. Not bad! I'll compile them in a few more days and add the results to the preview page. The early money is on Cyrus and Catherine at the moment to win.

[Commodore]

To be fair, Isabella will vanish like spit on a griddle in whatever game she's in.

[Fluffball]

To be fair, Isabella will vanish like spit on a griddle in whatever game she's in.

Enough games get run that sooner or later we're going to get weird things like Sitting Bull winning domination or Isabella winning her crusades. I'm always pulling for Monty to crazy himself into the next round.

[vmxa]

I posted on CFC about the new season in the General section a few days ago. I added a link to this thread today.

[ArchGhost]

Hello RB crew, a friendly post on CFC let me know this was happening.  Yay for more Civ Survivor!

Deity civs NOT starting with Archery, maybe I'm wrong but I suspect barbarians are going to cause a lot more havoc than before

Having spectated a lot of AI only games myself, it really doesn't do much unless Raging Barbs is on.   Even then, it only really slows the AIs down a little bit, proportionally to how much they unit spam and how much spawning territory they are exposed to.   A Ragnar or SB subject to lots of tundra will handle the barb pressure much better than like Gandhi or Pacal, for instance.    Occasionally one will see a couple cities razed/capped, usually by the most expansionist civs (IMP like Cyrus) who get a little ahead of themselves.  And since the pressure is constant -- until it goes away all at once -- all that really happens is everybody gets slightly delayed in taking the map, but little overall effect on the actual turn length of the game.

Since barbs won't spawn archers until the majority of AIs have the tech, there shouldn't be much of a window of tech disparity making anything worse either (as the AIs all favor Archery pretty heavily and should all get it around the same time).  This actually means, that unless Sullla gifts the barbs Archery to start with, barb cities can spawn with Warrior defenders, which means that they'll actually be easier for the AI to take!  I've seen this many times on the Earth18 scenario, where AIs have no free techs just like this setup.


Looking at thegame 1 preview overview, I can only say 2 things for sure right now:
-Roosevelt is screwed, lol.  A weak AI cornered by two of the best territory grabbers in the whole game?  Ouch!
-Whether Cyrus is a contender or not depends on the religious shaking out/alignments.  Otherwise I think he's the strongest pick with Qin or Cathy next.

I like Cyrus' physical position here:  he's the game's most rapid expander (one of the few "Growth" flavor AIs and IMP), and in his central spot he can contest the center and contest with Rosie (Cathy should win any border wars with him though) as well as steal land from the considerably less expansive Liz, who tends to stay small.    However his middling peaceweight and inability to declare at Pleased means he makes a lot of friends on both sides and stays quite peaceful a lot of the time.  This can work in his favor, keeping him out of war, if he claims a lot of land quickly,  but it does little to shake up the game.   With Izzy and Liz likely to found religions, he could be infected by either and set at odds with anybody though.

Rosie is trapped into contesting land with both an IMP AI with the fastest expansion rate in the game, and an IMP AI that is CRE harming his ability to contest with either of them due to positioning.

[Sullla]

Thanks for joining us ArchGhost! I've gone ahead and added the community predictions thus far to the Game One Preview Page. Here's the short summary:






And some of the awesome prediction comments that have been rolling in:

NotSpamBot: Roosevelt has a peaceweight of 8 and Elizabeth has a peaceweight of 9. The rest of the leaders have an average peaceweight of 3.25 and that is with Isabella's peaceweight of 6 dragging them up. The two high peaceweight leaders are literarily separated by the entire continent and so can't team up. One of them are going to be first to die, and I say it is going to be Elizabeth primarily because she has more neighbors. Who get's the kill? No idea, but I hope it is Qin solely because of his performance in game 6 of season 3.

Fluffball: Seems like a TON of crap land. Whoever gets the first conquest will win, thus I pick Catherine. Roosevelt is toast.

Eauxps I. Fourgott: Having established last season that playing solely based on my head will accomplish nothing, this time I'm playing with my heart (with a little head mixed in). I'm rooting for Cyrus to win the game; his central position is likely a boom-or-bust result, but I'm banking on him playing it well and taking advantage of having Roosevelt and Lizzy as close neighbors. Lizzy is my pick for second, as her good start and relatively sheltered position should allow her to tech away to a good lead, although I'm well aware that there are PLENTY of ways that the other leaders could mess her game up all too quickly. I know that Cathy is a force, but I'm banking on having Izzy attack her enough in the early game to mess up her timing and give Cyrus an opening. For First to Die, the two logical options are Izzy (due to craziness) and Roosevelt (due to general weakness), and I'm going with Roosevelt since I think he'll fold quickly once Cyrus or Cathy chooses to attack him. As for the rest, lucky number 13 is going to be my default war declaration count prediction, and I will likely never change it throughout the season. Given that I expect Lizzy to prosper, her healthy tech rate should ensure a nice early finish date, likely with space as the victory condition. CIV 4 SURVIVOR 4 HYPE!!!

Myth: Cathy needs a #2, Qin is far enough away. Poor Elizabeth is gonna get murdered by Qin + Cyrus, but Isabella drew the short straw of being next to Catherine, Cyrus, AND Qin, all people she'll likely piss off with religion and all want to go to war early and often. Roosevelt and Elizabeth are also contenders, but Elizabeth might go crazy and get second. No way she's beating my girl Cathy though.

RefSteel: With strong starting techs, Imperialistic, his track record, and good land for expansion, including horses nearby for Immortals and gold for Instant Economy, Cyrus has to be the favorite. His central position should allow him to capitalize on every war that starts without waking halfway across the map through somebody else's territory, which makes him more likely to keep and materially benefit from his war gains...so of course I'm voting Catherine. My excuse is basically that she's Roosevelt's nearest neighbor, and with FDR locked in behind tundra and desert with a double seafood start, Cathy will be able to expand like the madwoman she is and then conquer all the wonders Roosy builds in his virtual OCC. Then it's possible Liz could come in second just by dint of starting furthest away from the juggernaut I hope Cathy turns out to be! (Also of note: Spain on a Lake with Gold Next Door may set a new record for number of religions founded by any AI Survivor civ in one game.)

scretchy: spain ruined a lot of games for me when i first started playing civ4

Faded_Outline: Fish gonna swim, Birds gonna fly, Izzy gonna holy war and very likely die. Calling a win for Cyrus because he's got two different flavours of Anglophone fodder to devour while his competition fend off the zealot. (this all presupposes that they don't form a northern Catholic bloc, of course >.>)

Y3llowSheep: Either Cyrus or Catherine will run over the game. Cyrus's central position is a little tenuous, hence why Catherine is my first pick. Isabella is first to die because she'll pick a fight with one of the two top dogs and get run over. Everyone else probably dies too (even Lizzy, poor woman goes out of her way to ignore military tech), because both Cyrus and Catherine enjoy their heads on pikes.

lightms: Wow, Catherine and Izzy, the two craziest AI's in the game, starting right next to each other? Do you think that might lead to some conflict? Yeah, I thought so too. Elsewhere I'm guessing Cyprus eats Lizzie (two leaders with nicknames that have two z's. Huh) and then he and Cathy team up to kill Qin. I'm not sure about Roosevelt. He's got a ton of room to expand east assuming Cyprus goes north and Cathy goes east (as they probably should). He might get a third good third of the map without really fighting albeit with a lot of tundra cities. Alternatively he could get totally boxed in. Alternatively, if Cathy get's Izzy's religion, she might end up giving Cathy give in to a lot of Cathy's requests for help leading to... an interesting partnership. I kind of hope this happens even though it would wreck my prediction. Team Crazy Girls FTW!

scooter: Feels like a chalky game to me

Dantski: I forgot how many turns these games take. Anyway Catherine is the obvious favourite with map positioning and Isabella is going to be eliminated first or second. I decided to go with a riskier prediction of Elizabeth winning though, I think her work boat start should help her lever her Financial trait early and make her powerful later in the game providing she doesn't lose out in the expansion race. Cyrus as first to perish was the other obvious option after Isabella, a central position is always dangerous but there's also plenty of good land around him so he could well end up dominating just as easily.

Shpoko: Looking at the map, Cyrus has probably the best start, has tech to use it well, and the Imperialistic bonus to spread like a weed. It just feels to me that this is his game to lose. On the flip side, Izzy has poor techs for her start, and will almost certainly go religious, compounding her problems, hence she's most likely 1st to die. Too many low peace weight leaders to let Liz tech or Roosevelt to wonder it up in peace. That leaves Cathy or Qin for second. I choose Cathy 'cause she does have financial, and will be more willing to take land from others.

Azoth: Cyrus has a dream start. Good mix of food and production at the capital with fertile land on all sides. Five happiness and all the strategic resources. He shoud do well. Roosevelt is crammed into the tundra and will quickly butt borders Catherine, who will eat him. Elizabeth and Isabella are also doomed. But Cyrus won't declare war on his friends Catherine and Qin, so it'll be a Spaceship win.

ArchGhost: Cyrus is very expansive, and positionally, in a great spot to claim a lot of land especially near Elizabeth or Rosie. While Cathy should be able to win on her land-grabbing front with him, Cyrus can snag land in multiple other directions due to him expanding faster than all the other AIs and his central position, which includes more of the largely "free" backline tundra cities (Rosie and Liz are in corners, and have less). I forsee Izzy and Liz founding the 2 major early religions; Cathy (Monotheism tech) or Qin (Code of Laws tech) may found an outlier religion, but Liz and especially Izzy's will be dominant. Qin is actually very fond of doing this kind of thing and tends to sit in his own founded religion when he does it, leading me to believe he'll be the ignition point of any powder keg situation by attacking anybody (DoWs at Pleased and in a differing religion) or being attacked by an unhinged Izzy/unaligned Cathy.

These religious alignments will affect two major areas of contention:
1.) Whether Cyrus gets involved in war earlier than usually (he makes friends easily so tend to stay peaceful for a while)
2.) Whether Cyrus and Cathy are opposed to one another.

If Cyrus aligns with say, Liz, he'll be poised to punish Qin or Izzy should they pick on her. The opposite is also possible with Izzy, though Liz/Rosie shouldn't really try to attack her instead of the other way around. The story of Cathy and Cyrus is the important one, I feel. If Cathy and Cyrus are buddy-buddy, Cathy will thrive and go on to the late game as major contender where her excellent Cossack unit will give he an edge in any tech-advantage warring, and lead her onward towards trying a Culture or Space victory, without having to worry about Cyrus looming. Cyrus will be big but fight no major wars of consequence and will slowly head towards space himself while Qin/Izzy bicker with Liz/Rosie. Of this field, only Cathy is really the AI that can get big enough and maintain tech speed to challenge Cyrus when he starts to fall off in tech speed later (something he always does). Liz can't/won't be big enough, Qin won't be big enough, Izzy is a question mark but should be behind in tech, Rosie is likely already dead, etc.

If Cyrus is instead influenced by religion to oppose Cathy, he may actually be inclined to attack her on his own (she shouldn't attack him as she tends to be cowardly and bribing is hindered in NTT) and cripple her early. As she can't then vassal to him or anyone else, her contributions to the game should be over, and the story will instead switch to "Is anybody foolhardy enough to attack giant Cyrus?" while he will still sit, similarly to before, without major warring and slowly head toward space. Rosie as first to die. He is totally screwed, being fenced in by two IMP AIs, one of them CRE too, is very likely. Being as weak as he normally is with that disadvantage on top means he'll be inconsequential, while his peaceweight will make him a target for Cathy/Izzy/Qin

Patcdr: I have no idea what I'm doing.

The first game takes place one week from today!

[Brian Shanahan]

Hello RB crew, a friendly post on CFC let me know this was happening.  Yay for more Civ Survivor!

Deity civs NOT starting with Archery, maybe I'm wrong but I suspect barbarians are going to cause a lot more havoc than before

Having spectated a lot of AI only games myself, it really doesn't do much unless Raging Barbs is on.   Even then, it only really slows the AIs down a little bit, proportionally to how much they unit spam and how much spawning territory they are exposed to.   A Ragnar or SB subject to lots of tundra will handle the barb pressure much better than like Gandhi or Pacal, for instance.    Occasionally one will see a couple cities razed/capped, usually by the most expansionist civs (IMP like Cyrus) who get a little ahead of themselves.  And since the pressure is constant -- until it goes away all at once -- all that really happens is everybody gets slightly delayed in taking the map, but little overall effect on the actual turn length of the game.

Since barbs won't spawn archers until the majority of AIs have the tech, there shouldn't be much of a window of tech disparity making anything worse either (as the AIs all favor Archery pretty heavily and should all get it around the same time).  This actually means, that unless Sullla gifts the barbs Archery to start with, barb cities can spawn with Warrior defenders, which means that they'll actually be easier for the AI to take!  I've seen this many times on the Earth18 scenario, where AIs have no free techs just like this setup.


Looking at thegame 1 preview overview, I can only say 2 things for sure right now:
-Roosevelt is screwed, lol.  A weak AI cornered by two of the best territory grabbers in the whole game?  Ouch!
-Whether Cyrus is a contender or not depends on the religious shaking out/alignments.  Otherwise I think he's the strongest pick with Qin or Cathy next.

I like Cyrus' physical position here:  he's the game's most rapid expander (one of the few "Growth" flavor AIs and IMP), and in his central spot he can contest the center and contest with Rosie (Cathy should win any border wars with him though) as well as steal land from the considerably less expansive Liz, who tends to stay small.    However his middling peaceweight and inability to declare at Pleased means he makes a lot of friends on both sides and stays quite peaceful a lot of the time.  This can work in his favor, keeping him out of war, if he claims a lot of land quickly,  but it does little to shake up the game.   With Izzy and Liz likely to found religions, he could be infected by either and set at odds with anybody though.

Rosie is trapped into contesting land with both an IMP AI with the fastest expansion rate in the game, and an IMP AI that is CRE harming his ability to contest with either of them due to positioning.

Yay! for more members. And I like your analysis.

[Sullla]

One last reminder that Game One will go live on stream tomorrow about 13 hours after the time of this post. Thanks for the predictions, and hope to see some of you on the Livestream!

[Brian Shanahan]

Game's 47 turns old just in case nobody noticed.

[Charriu]

Sorry it's not the best time to watch for me