I didn't have a chance to look at the map until now; Kublai has a ton of desert and then also ice. That really seems to screw the AI up. I might have picked him if not for the literally useless land he has. Tundra the AI can work with, desert and ice: no.
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Civ4 AI Survivor: Season Four
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(June 19th, 2019, 19:22)Sullla Wrote: Aus prof: "Wait, Willem? In a field this stacked, you picked Willem?" Ah but wait, I can explain. Let’s go leader by leader. Justinian has a good start on paper. But in practice, his abundant land and resources will be squandered by his tech preferences. Justinian begins the game unable to improve any resources, and is going to exacerbate this by researching a religion. To make things worse, there is a good chance in this field that he loses that race, then goes for a second religion. Justinian may spend the first 20 turns of the game not just without improvements, but without even being able to build them, and I don’t care how strong an AI is, that’s crippling in a way that makes it hard to recover. Izzy is essentially the exact same as Justinian in this respect so I won’t waste words rehashing that. The only difference is that she is first to die due to higher peace weight and a central position. Kublai has a frankly absurd capital and I initially snap-picked him, but actually there is a problem there too. He has nothing else. Seriously, look at his land, it’s pretty barren. So he’s not gonna die super early, but he isn’t going to be a major power post early game. Huayna was my initial pick for second, but actually, he’s just too squeezed. Like Isabella, I think his central position dooms him, not for being surrounded by enemies but just for not having enough expansion, especially if he goes wonder heavy. So, much like Kublai, I think Huayna will be an also-ran in this game. Hannibal, my final choice for second, has good land, tech preferences (he won’t chase religion early) and expansion opportunities. With financial he will tech well and he will also have the opportunity to crack some skulls, which is a good combo if you can get powerful enough to pull it off. Lastly, Willem has great and plentiful land, won’t waste time on religious stuff early, amazing traits and might not even need to capture any territory to win if everyone else batters each other’s brains out for him, slowing down the global tech pace. Basically I think he’s a slightly superior version of Hannibal in most ways (specifically for this game), and thus he will prevail. So yeah, somehow in a game featuring Justinian AND Huayna, I ended up picking Willem and Hannibal. Go figure Good to know I’m not the only one voting for Willem! Beyond what you said, I think that this cramped map benefits him more than a large, expansive one. He tends to build settlers slowly, so he won’t lose out as much in the early land grab phase. After that, creative also does better in cramped quarters. Add in the points you made and I really think it’s his breakout chance. My biggest worry is Willem’s close borders with Hannibal. Willem loves to do that AI thing where he works on researching communism, democracy, physics, and every non-military tech under the sun, all while avoiding gunpowder like it has cooties. In contrast, Hannibal loves to beeline for rifles. If the two of them fight some early wars sparked by their close borders, there’s a good chance Hannibal will later come gunning for his technologically advanced foe while Hannibal has the military tech edge. I could see Willem the tech leader dying to a swarm of rifles because he’s still using longbows. (June 19th, 2019, 19:22)Sullla Wrote: haphazard1: Spain on a lake, errr, oasis may mean Isabella grabs the first religion. She and Justinian are going to fight, dragging down the usually mighty Byzantine leader. Justinian will also get a slow start due to his starting techs not matching his capital, leaving tiles unimproved while he chases a religion of his own. This leaves Huayna Capac as my pick to win, probably grabbing the third religion at Monotheism and spreading it east and west to gain allies. He also has gold and silver within reach to boost happiness with his industrious forges. The stone might tempt him into going wonder crazy, though. Kublai will have a fantastic start with that quadruple gold and will end up as second place. First to die is tough. I am going with Isabella as she will start religious wars she can not win. I’m actually thinking that Isabella and Justinian are well-positioned to get along this game. Their peaceweights are similar, plus they both share theocracy as their favorite civic. If they avoid declaring on each other early on (definitely possible with the aggressive Kublai Khan nearby) that favored civic bonus will do a lot to counteract their religious zealotry. If that happens, they’ll probably look elsewhere on the map to fight their crusades.
June 20th, 2019, 17:30
(This post was last modified: June 20th, 2019, 17:30 by IsamutheShrub.)
Yeah Reverent I agree. Aus prof here btw (is there a way to change your name on the forum?)
What’s interesting is that I completely agree about Willems key weakness being a lack of settler building, but the small map for this game is actually the biggest reason I almost DIDNT pick him, instead of an advantage in my eyes. I figure he might expand slow enough that all the land is gone by the time he tries, as opposed to a big map where there might still be space. Hopefully that doesn’t happen though. I also tend to think that Willem is probably one of the best leaders to run a small empire, up there with Mansa and Gandhi. So maybe if Willem does get out-expanded it won’t matter? That’s part of what I’m hoping at least. The biggest problem with my pick is, as you say, there is a pretty reasonable chance that Willem and Hannibal go to war in this game, meaning only one at best can advance. My hope is Izzy will be a distraction, and a way to rack up those sweet mutual war points. Lastly, I want to ask people who picked Justinian to win this one, why? I just can’t see a world where he doesn’t waste the first 20 turns on religion and have a horrible economy; essentially I think this is the game where his terrible starting techs catch up with him. Do you guys expect that not to occur, or just that he is such a strong leader where it doesn’t matter if it does? Now watch as Justinian wins a crushing victory and makes me look silly. 
Also great point about Willems techpreferences. He tends to die so quickly usually I didn’t even think of that but you’re totally right!
(June 20th, 2019, 17:30)IsamutheShrub Wrote: Lastly, I want to ask people who picked Justinian to win this one, why? I just can’t see a world where he doesn’t waste the first 20 turns on religion and have a horrible economy; essentially I think this is the game where his terrible starting techs catch up with him. Do you guys expect that not to occur, or just that he is such a strong leader where it doesn’t matter if it does? Now watch as Justinian wins a crushing victory and makes me look silly. I agree that Justinian's starting techs and religious mania are likely to seriously hinder his early game. Especially if he gets beaten to the first religious tech, and then spends even more turns chasing another early religion tech before finally researching something that will let him improve some tiles. Byzantine nightmare scenario is that he loses that second race too, and goes all the way to monotheism for his own religion before grabbing economic techs. But maybe things go completely differently. My predictions this season have not exactly been dominating the competition. 
Don't forget that he also has no horses.
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June 21st, 2019, 12:34
(This post was last modified: June 21st, 2019, 12:36 by IsamutheShrub.)
Oh I just remembered, as far as the AP, i agree there are massive problems with it, with Saladin giving a great demonstration of the worst case scenario. With that said, I also think it adds some power to otherwise generally weak religious civs, and makes games less predictable, so I’m all for it. At its best, for example, it completely changed Game 4 of this season in a way that was unpredictable, made sense in retrospect, and most importantly was just fun to watch. Always feels good seeing the weaker civs form sensible coalitions against the leader, I guess. So overall I’m in favour of keeping the AP.
Also think seeded leaders are a great addition, guarantees that a bunch of favourites don’t all kill each other on the opening round like Game 6 last year, and also makes Playoff Games more likely to be interesting. So yeah, big fan of that one. 
I have to say that I'm imprest by Willem's performance this year. He lead in score in his opening game and won this one (mainly because of Sullla's shirt color
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Well, today's first playoff game was... interesting.
No spoilers yet, the Livestream is linked below and the written report will be ready later this weekend. Here's your fresh batch of links for the next game:Main Season Four Webpage Sullla Twitch Page Sullla Discord Channel AI Reference Guide from CivFanatics Playoff Game One Livestream Next Game: Playoff Game Two Schedule: Scheduled for Friday, 28 June 2019 at Noon EST Playoff Game Two Map Setup Video Preview Playoff Game Two Written Preview Playoff Game Two Picking Contest Entry Form Congratulations to Alhambram and whoever entered their name as "Test" as the winners of Playoff Game One's picking contest with 17 points each.  Scoring for the group as a whole was poor due to some unexpected results in this match. We are continuing with our normal Friday date for next week's Wildcard game. The field is full of a bunch of warmongers, including defending champion Stalin plus Shaka and Gilgamesh, along with a very-out-of-place Gandhi. Tune in to see who else will make the championship game. Also - still taking requests for anyone willing to design the map for the championship game. Let me know if anyone is interested. |
