Civ4 AI Survivor: Season Four

[haphazard1]

Soo, next game.... how close to 100% will Gandhi be in first to die category?

Prediction contest about the prediction contest?

Gandhi AI is really good at what it does. But this game is a terrible match up for it.

[Fluffball]

It's actually not as close to 100% as I was expecting.

[Reverent]

I keep having to look up a few things repeatedly, so here are some quick notes about the leaders in the upcoming game.

• Every single leader bar Gandhi can plot war at pleased.
  
• The only leaders who share a favorite civic are Stalin and Mao (State Property)
  
• Gilgamesh is the only leader with an early-game favorite civic: Hereditary Rule
  
• Gandhi's strategy: Culture (10)
  
• Tokugawa's strategy: Science (5) & Military (2)
  
• Stalin's strategy: Military (5) & Production (2)
  
• Shaka's strategy: Military (10)
  
• Gilgamesh's strategy: Military (5) & Culture (2)
  
• Mao's strategy: Growth (5) and Production (2)
  

Also, for what it's worth, someone in the picking contest comments mentioned Stalin's terrible nearby food resources, tempting him to the tundra. However, besides that, there's one more nearby food resource! In Stalin's starting screenshot, you can barely see a corn tile, blocked by the interface. It's a knight's move away from the gold, 6 tiles south of the pigs. Given the direction of his scouts, I think he might head for this area before Siberia.

When I play games without religious leaders, Mao seems to end up self-founding religions more often than his other traits suggest. Since his other attributes don't emphasize religion at all, this has always been one of the more puzzling things about him. Is it a side effect from focusing on growth?

[Fluffball]

I keep having to look up a few things repeatedly, so here are some quick notes about the leaders in the upcoming game.

• Every single leader bar Gandhi can plot war at pleased.
  
• The only leaders who share a favorite civic are Stalin and Mao (State Property)
  
• Gilgamesh is the only leader with an early-game favorite civic: Hereditary Rule
  
• Gandhi's strategy: Culture (10)
  
• Tokugawa's strategy: Science (5) & Military (2)
  
• Stalin's strategy: Military (5) & Production (2)
  
• Shaka's strategy: Military (10)
  
• Gilgamesh's strategy: Military (5) & Culture (2)
  
• Mao's strategy: Growth (5) and Production (2)
  

Also, for what it's worth, someone in the picking contest comments mentioned Stalin's terrible nearby food resources, tempting him to the tundra. However, besides that, there's one more nearby food resource! In Stalin's starting screenshot, you can barely see a corn tile, blocked by the interface. It's a knight's move away from the gold, 6 tiles south of the pigs. Given the direction of his scouts, I think he might head for this area before Siberia.

When I play games without religious leaders, Mao seems to end up self-founding religions more often than his other traits suggest. Since his other attributes don't emphasize religion at all, this has always been one of the more puzzling things about him. Is it a side effect from focusing in growth?

This is interesting because when I pick I go sort of with my gut and think I could double or triple my scores if I thought through every piece of information and I wish I really we had that info when picking but choose not to look it up.

I generally look at what I remember of peace weight and nearby resources and call it day, which is l reflected in my mediocre scores. Again, I think you could money ball this and trash the competition.

[Sullla]

Community predictions have been added to the preview page for Playoff Game Two! Here's a quick summary:






The community had clear picks in each category for the second playoff game. Stalin emerged as the strong favorite to be the outright winner with more than half of the contest entries choosing him. No one else could muster much above ten percent. Mao Zedong was almost as popular of a pick for the second place spot, and there were lots and lots of individuals who had a communist Stalin/Mao pairing for their submission. Gandhi was a very obvious pick as First to Die on this map, and yet if anything the 80% of the entries choosing Gandhi for this category were lower than I'd been expecting. I legitimately thought we might crack 90% in this category but apparently at least some of the field doesn't believe that peace weight is destiny. Domination also emerged as the most popular victory type yet again, perhaps because so many of these leaders could plot war at "Pleased" relations. This didn't feel like a game that was heading for a cultural finish.

Finally, here are some of the best/craziest written predictions about what would take place during the game. There were many other excellent entries but I had to pick and choose my favorites to keep this from running on too long. Thanks again for the submissions!

ljubljana: pfahahha god stalin's start is appalling. and you know his first two plants are going to be double food bonuses in the tundra and the single food bonus at the world's worst fishing village to his east. man are these other scrubs about to get embarrassed

JackDRB: Even though this game is full to the brim with very aggressive AIs, I'd say this is the perfect game draw for a diplomatic win. Look at the peaceweights: expect for Gandhi, they are all 1's and 2's. I have a feeling that, although Gandhi is sure to die, that he'll survive long enough (mainly due to attacking AI incompetence rather than Gandhi actually playing well) to be the unifying punching bag where all the other AIs can orchestrate a big whole lovefest with mutual military struggle and the like. When Gandhi dies, there isn't a whole lot that can really pull most of these AI's apart. The main divider is religion and the biggest possible malus between them is what, like -2? -3? No one really cares about differing religions that much, and apart from that, I don't really see how any of the non-Gandhi AIs can diplomatically isolate themselves from each other, unless one of them stupidly declares at Pleased relations or something (which may very well happen, I'm looking at you Shaka). How to pick a 1st/2nd linup when going with the rare Diplo victory? Not really sure, but I think Tokugawa has proven himself fairly capable in league with relatively weak competitors, and given he's been in the chance to win a Diplo victory before, so why not? For 2nd I think I just have to pick the generally strongest AI, and that would be Stalin, who I think is probably a little better than Mao (I also think his position is just generally better, and is very likely to gain some good cities from Gandhi). Go Toku!

NotSpamBot: I think Gandhi is the single most doomed participant we have ever had in AI Survivor.

Keler (artdeco): So I want Gilgamesh to win because he is the best AI here and Mao Zedong to die because I love things as fair. I hope Tokugawa trolls Mao Zedong bullshit luckface. As for second place, Tokugawa won't be able to resist both attacks from north and south and die so builder Stalin has more chance to out tech Shaka dumbster garbage leader even though I am kind of annoyed by his luck as well.

haphazard1: Gandhi will be an irresistable target for his warmonger neighbors, and will die long before he has a chance to tech far enough ahead to defend himself. The copper at Stalin's start will prove crucial, giving him stronger units early and enabling him to declare on India very early. The additional territory starts Stalin growing towards an eventual domination win. Second place is tough to pick; I am going with Gilgamesh as India's early exit leaves him extra space to grow.

Takuan: Biggest gamble here. I'm rooting for Gandhi, Cultural victory. My hope is that his religion will spread and make people like him more. Stalin, Toku and Shaka will attack each other and that will not be conclusive, slowing them down while Gilgamesh and Mao sit and watch. Gilgamesh second is heartbreaking for me because i think he's a terrible AI, but he's got nice room to expand and i hope his economy will allow him to beat the rest of the field. For my prediction to come true, i need a low number of wars despite the aggressiveness of the competitors. GO GANDHI !!

Eauxps I. Fourgott: Ummmmmmmmm yeah Gandhi is super screwed here. His playoff curse continues. Among the others, the Shaka-Toku dream team has worked before, so let's go for them again!

TMIT: This game is Stalin's to lose. He's rolled a decent capital position with copper and is next to super high peace weight Gandhi. I'm anticipating an early war there and a victory for Russia. Mao gets 2nd by virtue of not being Gandhi or a game throwing warmonger. I always thought Gilgamesh was better, but he's let us down so many times. I doubt China sees much pressure so they're probably going to make it through this round. This is a much weaker field than playoff game 1.

Reverent: You know how in Looney Toons, a hungry Sylvester looks at Tweety, imagining him turning into this huge roasted turkey dinner? That's Gandhi's neighbors. Gandhi's a dead man walking. Disregarding his long shot, outside chance to survive the early game, the most likely outcome is that Gandhi gets into 3+ early wars and as his neighbors parcel him up. In this game, the biggest question is who benefits the most from this. They'll be the likely winner. My answer is a surprising Gilgamesh!

Gandhi's demise will likely benefit Gilgamesh more than anyone else. In a Gandhi flambé, Gilgamesh and Stalin are likely to take the most land. Disregarding the city captures for now, both of them will benefit significantly from the sudden disappearance of Indian culture from their border cities. In particular, Gilgamesh's creative borders will suddenly pull a ton of fertile grasslands into Sumeria. If he takes any of India's cities, Gilgamesh's creative culture will help him fight for control of what's liable to be a complete mishmash of competing borders. Beyond border control, the cultural pressure, combined with the peace weight differences, are likely to push Gilgamesh and Stalin into an earlier war with India than their neighbors. For Gilgamesh in particular, India's death will open up a lot of incredibly fertile grassland tiles. Stalin is more likely to end up with a wide expanse of open plains—still nice, but a far cry from the lucrative grasslands of southern India. As the last Indian factor benefiting Sumeria, I think Gandhi's probably going to settle his holy city to the south. Gandhi's early scouts are headed west and southwest. Given that the AI seems to prioritize settling unclaimed food resources first, I think Gandhi's scout's going to spot the corn to the south, then send the settler straight towards Gilgamesh. Given Gandhi's central position on a broad river network, combined with his conquerors' likely acquiring Gandhi's religion via city conquest, the holy city's shrine is primed to be ridiculously lucrative. If Gandhi settles his second city near Gilgamesh's border, then the Sumerian could come away from the dog pile with a highly valuable wonder.

Moving beyond India, Gilgamesh has a terrific start himself. Tons of food at his capital, several happiness resources in his area, plenty of floodplains in his area, lots of grassland tiles... He even has a terrific second city location that roughly fits the AI settling priorities! (Next to the corn, two above the gold.) Additionally, he has a huge buffer from Shaka. Gilgamesh has a lot of external factors in his favor to counteract his mediocre AI. I think he's going to establish an early research lead, then gradually snowball it into a winning position by the late-game. Compare that to Stalin's starting position. Stalin has a much narrower belt of grasslands to settle, with much of the belt bordered by tundra, deserts, and plains. Worse, the food resources are positioned in places which will tempt Stalin's settlers into building Siberian tundra cities. After his second city (which will probably bring the gold and corn online, given where he pointed his scouts), where does he go next? I think Stalin must gobble up at least India's capital to improve his lot. (Admittedly, Stalin's well-positioned for that, but Sumeria doesn't have the same do-or-die requirement that Russia does.) After Gilgamesh, I think Shaka's in a good position to take 2nd. He does best when he's in a field without someone who establishes a clear, early, dominant research edge. When he's near military tech parity, he tends to win his wars. This is an excellent field for him. Gandhi's likely to die early on and no one else is predisposed to build a substantial lead early on. After that, Tokugawa and Stalin are targets who will probably lose to Shaka's hordes. His biggest problem will be late-game. Shaka's suicidally aggressive.

ZeroScore: Gandhi teaches the world peace via the Apostolic Palace. Many wars, all fruitless as the world votes to stop the wars. Eventually, the world sees Gandhi as its savior and votes for him as supreme leader.

The__Babayaga: Of all the starts here, only Stalin seems to have drawn a decent one. Shaka has only 1 real food resource (plains hill sheep are pathetic), Toku has got 3 of arguably the worst resource to start with (silk...yuck), Gandhi's start is good but he'll last perhaps not into the ADs with this pack of warmongers, and the remaining 2 leaders are bound by tundra which means barring extreme luck they'll plonk their 2nd and 3rd settles right into the Antarctic wastes and then permanently cripple themselves. Also Stalin has a pretty dangerous and competent AI as seen by past seasons, and AGG and IND helps heavily to compensate for AI stupidity (namely, wonderbuilding when they shouldn't and spamming barracks instead of more useful things). All in all, Stalin seems like the clear winner, with Shaka doing his usual thing of rabidly attacking someone and then getting a lot of land before falling hopelessly behind in tech, nevertheless to still claim 2nd place. Gandhi is...yikes. Gonna be praying for that poor guy because he sure needs it.

Faded_Outline: It is entirely seemly for a young Gandhi killed in battle to lie mangled by the bronze spear. In his death all things appear fair.

Playoff Game Two Picking Contest Entry Form

[Fluffball]

That Gandhi first to die is staggeringly low. Although I seem to recall Gilgamesh not having access to copper, and his iron was a bit off in the useless ice. That's largely why I didn't pick him for 2nd (if I'm remembering any of this right.)

[Reverent]

That Gandhi first to die is staggeringly low. Although I seem to recall Gilgamesh not having access to copper, and his iron was a bit off in the useless ice. That's largely why I didn't pick him for 2nd (if I'm remembering any of this right.)

Perhaps you mean Mao? Gilgamesh doesn’t have any copper, but he does have an iron at 3rd ring from his capital. Meanwhile, Mao has a nearby copper, but his closest iron is locked in the ice, kind of near a uranium.

Actually, now that I’m looking more closely at Mao’s surrounding lands, he and Tokugawa might get into a settling race. Positioned right between them, there’s a nice area with rice and cows that could also pick up aluminum and the only nearby copper resource. For Mao, it contains the only non-fish resources nearby. For Tokugawa, whose scouts are heading south, it contains the only visible food in the direction his scouts are heading. I think their early settlers are going to race for this area. This could have some major implications if either one goes to war early on.

Aside from the whole peaceweight thing, Gandhi’s lack of nearby copper bothers me a lot. For a civilization that likes to focus on religion and culture, iron working’s a long way away. That’s particularly nasty since Shaka and Stalin both have copper right next to their capitals.

[Fluffball]

That Gandhi first to die is staggeringly low. Although I seem to recall Gilgamesh not having access to copper, and his iron was a bit off in the useless ice. That's largely why I didn't pick him for 2nd (if I'm remembering any of this right.)

Perhaps you mean Mao? Gilgamesh doesn’t have any copper, but he does have an iron at 3rd ring from his capital. Meanwhile, Mao has a nearby copper, but his closest iron is locked in the ice, kind of near a uranium.

Actually, now that I’m looking more closely at Mao’s surrounding lands, he and Tokugawa might get into a settling race. Positioned right between them, there’s a nice area with rice and cows that could also pick up aluminum and the only nearby copper resource. For Mao, it contains the only non-fish resources nearby. For Tokugawa, whose scouts are heading south, it contains the only visible food in the direction his scouts are heading. I think their early settlers are going to race for this area. This could have some major implications if either one goes to war early on.

Aside from the whole peaceweight thing, Gandhi’s lack of nearby copper bothers me a lot. For a civilization that likes to focus on religion and culture, iron working’s a long way away. That’s particularly nasty since Shaka and Stalin both have copper right next to their capitals.

Ah yes, you're right. I got that backwards and picked Gilgamesh instead of Mao for second due to Mao's metal situation. (I hope that's what I did anyway.)

I didn't bother looking at Gandhi's start since he's so dead it's almost irrelevant, but his lack of copper.... good lord. That man is absolutely toast.

[Sullla]

Today's playoff game was a short one, both in terms of in-game turns and real-world time. We also had the single craziest elimination in Civ4 AI Survivor history, something you have to watch to believe. Here's your fresh batch of links for the next game:

Main Season Four Webpage

Sullla Twitch Page

Sullla Discord Channel

AI Reference Guide from CivFanatics

Playoff Game Two Livestream

Next Game: Playoff Game Three

Schedule: Scheduled for Friday, 05 July 2019 at Noon EST

Playoff Game Three Map Setup Video Preview

Playoff Game Three Written Preview

Playoff Game Three Picking Contest Entry Form

Congratulations to artdeco, LaserGuy, and Jervic as the winners of Playoff Game Two's picking contest with 23 points each. Scoring for the group as a whole was very good due to a certain popular pick coming through as expected. We are continuing with our normal Friday date for next week's playoff game. The field has some warmongers (Julius Caesar, Boudica) and some peaceful builders (Darius, Roosevelt) and some miscellaneous leaders (Suryavarman, Charlemagne). Tune in to see who else will make the championship game.

Also - still taking requests for anyone willing to design the map for the championship game. Let me know if anyone is interested.

[haphazard1]

A fast-paced game, and once again very entertaining. That elimination....

Do the AIs ever defy AP resolutions? Ever? If they won't defy a resolution that eliminates them from the game, that programming is just utterly broken.