Civ4 AI Survivor: Season Four

[haphazard1]

I think Gilgamesh avoided settling on the corn because that tile has no fresh water. The AI does seem to put priority on having fresh water in a city for the health bonus.

[shallow_thought]

In contrast to Stalin, Gilgamesh did not settle on the corn to bring all three tiles into range. Instead, he settled next to it, sacrificing a wines for a coal, ensuring that he'd be able to farm the corn. Again, I think this is a case of prioritizing the food. I don't think I've ever seen the AI settle over food before.

The AI isn't aware of unrevealed resources in Civ IV, so it wouldn't have taken the coal into account. If anything, that rather reinforces your point.

[Reverent]

I think Gilgamesh avoided settling on the corn because that tile has no fresh water. The AI does seem to put priority on having fresh water in a city for the health bonus.

Oh, that does make a lot of sense. I definitely wasn’t taking that into account.

In contrast to Stalin, Gilgamesh did not settle on the corn to bring all three tiles into range. Instead, he settled next to it, sacrificing a wines for a coal, ensuring that he'd be able to farm the corn. Again, I think this is a case of prioritizing the food. I don't think I've ever seen the AI settle over food before.

The AI isn't aware of unrevealed resources in Civ IV, so it wouldn't have taken the coal into account. If anything, that rather reinforces your point.

Well, that clears up my years-long misconception!  I thought that the blue circles took hidden resources into account for ages and ages. And, well, since that’s not true, my whole theory falls apart in light of that. (Plus, I found an old screenshot from adventure 39 that completely shafts my theory with its suggestion for the northernmost city.)

This helps a lot to know, so thank you both for picking apart my idea!

[Sullla]

Yes, AI civs can't see resources if they lack the corresponding tech. This was one of Sirian's pet peeves from Civ3 and he leaned on Soren to make sure that the AI didn't cheat with regard to resources in Civ4. The information that Reverent listed is still highly useful though, especially the production focuses of the respective AIs. Thanks for adding that to the thread.

Community predictions have been added to the preview page for Playoff Game Three! Here's a quick summary:






The prediction contest was split fairly evenly for this game, with two potential outcomes reflected in the community predictions. Some of the contest entries saw Julius Caesar as the favorite to win the game, with a Domination victory therefore as the most likely result. The Roman leader had about half of the winning votes and there was a decent chance that he would pull off another smashing performance as he had done in the opening round. The contrasting option seemed to involve picking Darius to win the game, with about a third of the contest entries favoring Persia to emerge on top. These contest entries were also emphasizing a Spaceship victory, and opinion was almost exactly split between these two victory types. Meanwhile, second place was the typical toss up with no clear favorites, while the First to Die category had two high peace weight leaders in the form of Charlemagne and Roosevelt. (Amusingly, only one person picked Julius Caesar as the first to be eliminated.) This game looked like it would turn on whether or not the low peace weight civs could take out the high peace weight civs before their superior economies could pull away.

Finally, here are some of the best/craziest written predictions about what would take place during the game. There were many other excellent entries but I had to pick and choose my favorites to keep this from running on too long. Thanks again for the submissions!

salt: Caesar has so much land AND iron in capital, which makes it possible for him to crush his peaceful Southern neighbor Roosevelt. Suryarvarman doesn't have metal but if he teams up with Boudica, he would still possibly outsurvive Charlemagne. It's then just a matter of time when one of the aggressive leaders decides to take out Darius.

Alhambram: Very diffcult choices here, Charly and Boudica shall found religions and hate each other. Charly got best chance to spread to Sury, but border tensions and peace difference might cause strain between them resulting in quick elimination for Charly if Boudica comes for Charly. I assume that Charly somehow convince Sury to become his friend and Sury goes bothering Darius instead. Then Charly using protective trait to prevent him getting FTD status. Meanwhile Caesar expands rapidly and kills off wonder building Roosevelt as FTD. Midgame Darius founds his own religion and get ganged up by Caesar, Boudica and Sury before he becomes too advanced to kill. Then game ends with Caesar invading Sury to trigger domination win, maybe earlier already if Caesar completely eats up Roosevelt and Darius.

Fluffball: Roosevelt is a fraud! Ceasar eats him effortlessly and wins the game.

Keler (artdeco): I expect Roosevelt to dominate the game with expanding huge although he is the worst AI here with best starting place for expansion and dominating. Let's just hope there won't be Boudica&Julius dogpile on him early on, although he should be ok to be in 1v1 war with them. He must defend until teching Feudalism then he beats them. So these wars must put him behind wonder race with Darius so Persians can win culture victory easily even though America tops the leaderboard.

Latif: I don't see Julius doing all that well this game - his starting area is pretty rough with the only good second city site at the pigs / wet rice spot 7-8 tiles away. His initial scout heads south so I guess he'll probably settle his second city there in the jungly coast. That should slow him down a LOT. Meanwhile Darius has a great capital and tons of land to expand into peacefully. He's almost certain to get attacked at some point by at least one (if not all) of the low peaceweight leaders, but he should have a military tech advantage going into any fights. Boudica / Sury will probably carve up Charlemagne (first to die) who almost surely gets off to a very slow start. Roosevelt has arguably the 2nd best starting area with lots of nice land to expand into peacefully. He hopefully settles north with his initial settler to block Julius. Most other leaders with this starting area would likely make it to the Championship, but his low unit build prob and high peaceweight probably gets him into trouble at some point. Darius to win by space with Boudica coming second due to having a nice floodplains area to her SW which should help her keep afloat in tech.

shallow_thought: Backing Darius got me one of my better results this season - but this time, it's got to be Julius. Decent start for his techs, iron, Roosevelt to eat. Done.

Aus prof: Julius Caesar is, in my opinion, a fairly average AI with an absolutely ridiculous ace up his sleeve: Praetorians. One of the cardinal rules of AI Survivor is that core city captures before walls are possible, but extremely rare and requiring unusual circumstances; see Pacals death in Game Two. Praetorians are the only unit in the game that break this rule, see Pericles’ demise last season, and Caesar is the only Roman leader aggressive enough to consistently use them. While hilariously unbalanced, Caesar has become my personal favourite leader in this competition, because his praetorian fueled conquests are unique and thus always entertaining. With all that said, unfortunately Caesar is my ‘first to die’ pick for this game. While he has iron, which is the most important thing for his game plan, he lacks something critical: early-game luxuries. Meanwhile, FDR and Darius have Gold and Ivory, two of the best resources. When Caesar inevitably attacks one of them, even with praetorians, I don’t think it’s a war he can win. Luxuries help the AI economically so much that I think even early on Caesar is going to fall behind. Think about how much that desert gold would’ve helped Mansa in his game. Once Darius and/or FDR kills him, I think the killer wins the game, while the other comes second, in a peace-weight fueled alliance. Boudica and Sury might attack, but to be honest with Darius’ start I can’t see a world where he doesn’t build a huge tech lead and become invincible. Heh, famous last words, given his history.

JackDRB: Can't really bet against a JC with iron at his capital and starting next to a tasty target in Roosy. He's most likely to snowball, and so likely to win. Sury also has an excellent position, although I do not forse him snowballing quite as hard hence 2nd. Charlemagne has one of the worst starts in this whole season, stuck between a rock (Boudica) and a hard place (Sury), there's no way he isn't FtD.

Zalson: How can it be anything but Caesar? He's got a lot of free space and *has* to expand toward his opponents. Sury gets runner up because he's the furthest away from Caesar. Boudica gives Caesar her religion so she survives in a rump state status. Everyone else wilts like basil planted in the same place for 4 years running (garden joke!). Rosie dies first.

LinkMarioSamus: Going by peace weight, Suryavarman is the leader with the most to fear in this match, his 1 contrasting with his neighbors' 6 and 8. Additionally, none of the leaders he has gone against this season have done well elsewhere. Mao was largely a non-factor in the previous playoff game, and Justinian was lucky to survive the one before that. Charlemagne already out-played him in the opening round anyway. To make matters worse, the leaders Suryavarman has faced in previous seasons have collectively performed pretty awful this time around, with Tokugawa, Justinian, and Kublai Khan being the only ones to do much of anything. This guy has been in six matches in prior seasons, you'd think he'd run into stronger leaders sometime. On the map location, it's all but inevitable Boudica and Julius Caesar will attack their neighbors with the most diametrically-opposed peace weights early in the game, which will distract Charlemagne from finishing off Suryavarman, but Charlemagne's Protective trait should be able to minimize the damage in the early game. I imagine Darius will get more from Suryavarman's collapse than Charlemagne, between his more isolated start and much better economic attributes. I'm largely picking him to win outright for those reasons as well, with Caesar to come in 2nd due to his strong past performances to keep the trend of a newcomer to the championship dragging a veteran along with them.

Faded_Outline: Darius has the Gandhi dilemma; capable if he's left alone long enough to develop a lead, worthless until that point. He doesn't have Mansa Musa or Hatshepsut around to be even-more-hated by the world's warmongers this time around... Roosevelt is his only natural friend by peace-weight and an inert ally isn't particularly valuable. As for defending himself? Not a chance given the low unit preference and that marble in the cap circle. Maybe Suryavarman destroys him outright, maybe Boudica sneaks across the map to snipe his cities out, maybe Caesar rolls him up as an encore to his campaign against America, but one way or another he's toast. At least the cities he builds up will be the most profitable land of the eventual victor's empire.

ZincAlloy: I'm voting Boudica. Why? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Also Darius dies first because he's very good at disappointing everyone.

Playoff Game Three Picking Contest Entry Form

[Sullla]

One other note: Commodore was kind enough to create a custom map for the Season Four Championship and it looks amazing. If you ever wanted to see an AI Survivor game played out on something similar to what we use for our PBEM/Pitboss events, you're going to get your wish. We'll debut the map on Friday once we have the full field of six set for the final.

[rho21]

Well, that clears up my years-long misconception!  I thought that the blue circles took hidden resources into account for ages and ages. And, well, since that’s not true, my whole theory falls apart in light of that. (Plus, I found an old screenshot from adventure 39 that completely shafts my theory with its suggestion for the northernmost city.)

This helps a lot to know, so thank you both for picking apart my idea!

It appears to me that the blue circles are aware of resources in the fog though (just the ones you have the tech to see when you've uncovered the tile, naturally). I suspect the AI may get a small advantage from that for the second city, after which the tiles will have been scouted anyway.

[Charriu]

Well, that clears up my years-long misconception!  I thought that the blue circles took hidden resources into account for ages and ages. And, well, since that’s not true, my whole theory falls apart in light of that. (Plus, I found an old screenshot from adventure 39 that completely shafts my theory with its suggestion for the northernmost city.)

This helps a lot to know, so thank you both for picking apart my idea!

It appears to me that the blue circles are aware of resources in the fog though (just the ones you have the tech to see when you've uncovered the tile, naturally). I suspect the AI may get a small advantage from that for the second city, after which the tiles will have been scouted anyway.

Yes and no. Yes it knows about resources in the fog, but I also noticed that these blue circles moved after I cleared some fog.

[rho21]

Yes and no. Yes it knows about resources in the fog, but I also noticed that these blue circles moved after I cleared some fog.

I have a theory for this one. The blue circles are never too close together: it chooses the best site in the area rather than all good sites, and perhaps allows for good spacing given its other recommendations too.
I suspect it only considers unfogged tiles to place a blue circle on though, so as you unfog more tiles, if one of them is better the old blue circle goes away.

Anyway, this discussion is moving rather away from AI survivor. Looking forward to seeing the writeup of today's game as I won't get the chance to watch it live.

[Fluffball]

Man, perennial title contender Mansu Musa really blew his chance this year, with 2.5 high peace weight civs in the finals. It would have been hard to not pick him, especially consider the competition.

[Commodore]

This game in general seemed pretty inept; I feel like any one of the Playoff 1 and Playoff 2 fields would have romped. Much more competent games.