Auro is playing with fire [SPOILERS]

[Aurorarcher]

I think I'm in trouble though. Mack has Poisons and Rathus. Rathus is not that much of an issue because of melee bonus as I can use skeletons to prevent him from hitting my Witches. However, his Ghosts will almost always target my Witches...

[Aurorarcher]

It's been a while since a report.

Mack used his WS very effectively, I didn't see that coming. Attacks first then use WS to hide again, very clever. I lost a city (I don't mind, AC jumped to 4 because of the raze) and two witches but mack keeps proposing peace a lot now. Seems like he is back to defense. That's good. Not accepting peace of course, he's in such a good position already economically that I can't give him any breathing room.

I have discovered some nice tricks to find where the hidden guys are (even without casting a spell). I wish I hadn't lost that Mind II witch, it was awesome! Sun II works as well.

I have also found a solution to my problem. Scouts work very well as shields. I'm moving in soon, I just put this stack on the critical tile.



Even his best units shouldn't get very good odds. I mean, of course against skeletons he should but that's the trap actually. I hope he kills those but he can't kill much more without risking losing his Ghosts. I don't mind if he doesn't kill any, then I can screen with 8 spectres next turn. My read on his power graph (156k t80) tells he has 7 or 8 ghosts (including rathus). Each 15k power, 10k from techs, 4k from Hunting Lodge and rest warriors. So I think I can be pretty safe with 6-7 scout shields + I will screen with Spectres. Next turn should be interesting when I bring the witches here as well... I also have sun II witch and couple fireballers and Maelstrom. Things are hating up.

Also, Dave declared against mack as well. Way to go, buddy, let's destroy the crazy hiding guys together!

[Aurorarcher]

Well, mack killed almost all the units (except one of the strongest Spectres and 2 others disappeared Eot, so he killed total of 5 spectres + 2 skeletons).



So what do I know... the odds can't have been the best. Here's why: My summons were all Undead. They are immune to Poison damage (so his Ghosts are only 5 str instead of 6) and get +50% resistance against Unholy damage (Aero's Chosen is +2 Unholy). Also Undead are immune to Death damage meaning Nether Blade (Rathus' item) is ignored as well.

He has removed the combat odds showing from the last game so I can't be quite sure what kind of risks he got (not sure why he removed them, that's fair to see IMO, no idea why it's not turned on automatically like in BtS). Anyway... I have seen some of his Ghosts before (they could have more xp by now), his super ghost is C4 commando with Aerons' Chosen. So that is Str 6 + 80 strength + 2-3 first strikes --> 10.8 after modifiers. He also has some C3 ghosts, that's str 8 after modifiers. Not sure about others, I think he must have some Shock promotions. I assumed he has at worst C2 Ghosts because if he has any just C1 ghost they don't even get odds against the skeletons (47.1% with C1 and 79.8 and 85.5 if C2 or C3). I added in some shock Ghosts too. So maybe he could have like (this is just guessing his 7 units):

1 x C4 super ghost --> Str 10.8
2 x C3 ghost --> Str 8
2 x C2 + Shock Ghost --> Str 7 + melee bonus
1 x C2 Ghost --> Str 7
Rathus (came T69, so probably C3 by now) --> str 8 + 50% melee bonus

My defenders (shown in the pic earlier):
2 x C1 + Empower II + Ench Blade Skeletons --> Str 6.3
3 x C1 + Ench Blade Spectres --> Str 9.5
2 x C1 + Empower II  + Ench Blade Spectres --> Str 10.5
2 x C1 + Empower III + Ench Blade Spectres --> Str 11

Okay, so I went and did some sims.

So what could've happened:

• He must've killed my skeletons with worst units, because then he can save his better units for Spectres. Okay, C2 Ghost has 79.8% odds to kill Skeleton. Apparently that's worth a risk... twice. Okay, fine... 
  
• Then he attacks with Rathus against Spectre with at str 9.5, but since he gets +50% against melee that drops to 7. So if Rathus is C3 that's 8 v 7, odds are 76%. I wouldn't risk my hero like this against a summoned unit. What if it has Shock + C2? Then 91%, that's more reasonable.
  
• Okay then he kills more Spectres. So my 9.5 str ones go first. Against Shock these are 7.5. So what could he attack with. Certainly with Shock Ghosts. But C2 + Shock is around 50%... No way he is attacking like that. So they must be C3 + Shock. C3 + Shock Ghosts gets 77.8% odds against my str 9.5 Spectres. So he kills 3 Spectres like this at 77.8% odds (at best, I don't see him having C4 + Shock Ghosts, too much xp).
  
• Then he kills one Spectres at 10.5 str. This is even more weird. How? With his super Ghosts? Of course, but even at C4 the Aeron's Chosen doesn't get over 80% odds. Maybe it has Shock too? With Shock + C4 + Commando it gets 87% odds to win. Apparently, that's worth to risk his best unit.
  

The strange part is that mack is just killing summons and apparently losing nothing. So I'll just keep summoning more. Good thing I have one Spectre left to do some pillaging (pillaged two roads). I would really like to peek into the city but I need to pillage the roads.

Mack's power is now 164k, so +8k to last turn. He is upgrading DS to Ghosts. (DS = 8k, Ghost = 16k)

[Aurorarcher]

Okay, it's been couple turns with mack just killing all my summons...



... but finally I managed to do something.

On T82 I think mack forgot how fireballs work and how far they can reach. I managed to kill his Aeron's Chosen at around 30% odds. Then followed by killing C3 Ghost at 70% odds. No risk of losing Witches either.

On T83 he moved those units a bit further away but I was still close enough to kill one more Ghost + Divided Soul. Not sure if this was sort of a trap though because I had to put my stack of 6 Witches and 7 Scouts in danger.

On T84 he killed 4 of my scouts so I need more. He has 5 Ghosts nearby. This picture shows the current war stage.



The city was Maelstromed and Fireballed this turn (I even got a kill with a fireball, killed his Elephant at something like 25% odds).

12 units in Zarlra. I can Maelstrom the city and also use Blinding Light if I need to. Those Magic Resistance Ghosts are hard to make immobile, also his Hero (+20% Resistance default). My Witches are a bit west, on jungled hill.

So what will mack do now?

He shouldn't be able to hit my Witches (I have 5 scouts there just in case) unless he has invisible workers nearby. He also has Construction so he can reach me easily with roads and just teleport back to city.

He shouldn't get too great odds against my Spectres either attacking over river. His Hero will get very good odds but others not so. They are all injuried so maybe the odds will be bad enough that he won't take them. If however, he doesn't kill any (or many) of my Spectres I can swarm the city next turn with a lot of units. My best Spectres get about 50% odds against his best defenders.

[Aurorarcher]

T86.

Dang, got fooled by his invisible Workers. They chopped the jungle under my Spectres. That allowed mack to teleport 1S of my summons and attack and then move back to cap... Edit: I mean to Zarlra.

Some of his Ghosts took serious injuries but won everything.



I decided to retreat, I can't attack with just 5 scouts. I need more.

[Aurorarcher]

On T88 I sent my best Spectre for a scouting mission...



But got killed immediately next turn by warriors! Notice he chopped the jungle and roaded it as well.



For some reason he decided to kill my Spectre with +95% strength with warriors. I don't even bother thinking the odds his first warrior had but they must've been at best 4.8 str vs 7.75 (if he used C1 + Shock). He lost one and cleaned up with another. I think he tries to keep his Ghosts hidden. Also, that small stack is in a curious place... notice also the Mobility promotions indicating that he has Horseback Riding now (that sucks for me).

He's got 240k power, that translates to about 9-10 Ghosts total. I have almost as many Witches.

I'm slowly trying to road towards Dave, if not for anything else, then just for TRs. The WW between mack and Dave hasn't increased in ages, it's just going down. This makes me suspect that mack is actually planning a huge attack on me. On the other hand he keeps sending Peace Treaty every turn, also this turn.

[Aurorarcher]

Couple turns again been mack just killing my Spectres...









At least some of them were injuried quite badly...

Then on T95 I got tired and moved on. I did make some units immobile (I assume they're workers). I had to also kill some slaves around. I figured mack couldn't hit my stack without risking his Ghosts...



There's 8 Spectres 1NE of my Witches.

Well, that didn't work out. He had slaves around and managed to kill a lot. He used his Divided Souls and warriors to hit my Witches after killing my Spectres. Disaster.

Lost 6 Witches because I'm stupid.

Here are the logs:





Lucky for me that my Mind II Witch survived and I managed to Charm Person almost all the units remaining.



I also killed 2 of his Ghosts with Spectres. I got pretty lucky I must admit, I killed his C5 Ghosts with less than 30% odds. I couldn't escape to capital but he only has like 4 units that can attack next turn so that's good.

So I'm not dead yet. But it sucks losing some of my very best witches. I had one C4, one C3 and plenty of C2 Witches... all gone now. Also lost my Maelstrom and Haste Witches.

I met Cairo finally also, he has pretty high power (hopefully PoLs). Here's hoping he'll join the "kill the invisible guys".

Also, I just looked back at some older screenshots by accident. I think part of mack's succes in this game has been the fact that he go Shades super early. I have no idea how but I think he had them around T40 (before barb warriors). He must've taken some really lucky fights against animals. When I played Sidar I didn't get Shades untill like T60 or something.

[Aurorarcher]

I need lurker's advice... It's now T104, me and mack have a peace treaty (10 turns, 4 turns left). I have used Maelstrom to "scout" my empire for mack's potential units (hidden nationality animals for example) and barbs as well. This turn I did that again but I also managed to damage some of his hidden invisible units (worker + warrior) so it automatically declared war. I know that I can Maelstrom visible units (at least if they're out of their borders) just fine and it won't declare war.

So should this be allowed or not? I certainly could use it to my advantage now. I don't remember any previous games having similar issues. This feels like abusing the system but on the other hand, the spell is hard to use because I cannot know where his units are. Thoughts?

[Mardoc]

I need lurker's advice... It's now T104, me and mack have a peace treaty (10 turns, 4 turns left). I have used Maelstrom to "scout" my empire for mack's potential units (hidden nationality animals for example) and barbs as well. This turn I did that again but I also managed to damage some of his hidden invisible units (worker + warrior) so it automatically declared war. I know that I can Maelstrom visible units (at least if they're out of their borders) just fine and it won't declare war.

So should this be allowed or not? I certainly could use it to my advantage now. I don't remember any previous games having similar issues. This feels like abusing the system but on the other hand, the spell is hard to use because I cannot know where his units are. Thoughts?

I think not, but solely because of the way it breaks the peace treaty. I don't see any objection to using it in ways that don't break the diplomatic system.

That said, I'm not 100% on this interpretation; there's a case that game mechanics are game mechanics. The case I'm thinking of is that Corlindale and Seven Pines aren't considered to establish 10-turn treaties, we let you declare war the turn after those abilities are used.

[Aurorarcher]

Yeah, I agree. I replayed the turn and didn't Maelstrom from that tile.