[SPOILERS] Rusten enters uncharted waters

[Rusten]

Rusten: Isabella [EXP/SPI] of India
India: Mysticism/Mining. UB: Granary replacement: Harrapan Granary, +1 happy, +1 health, cost 45 hammers, no bonus production from trait. UU: Pike replacement. Urukku Pikeman. Strength 8.

I understand the benefits of the traits and the UB.  What's your opinion on this new pike?

The more I think about it the better it gets. It's still unreal to me that India was not picked sooner as both the UU and UB are top tier. Mounted units are used so much in multiplayer.
The thing about this UU is that it stays viable as a cheap stack protector until infantry. As expected it absolutely destroys knights, but even cuirassiers get blown off the board without siege.

In the open an unpromoted cuirassier has 50% +retreat odds against a pike. Against an Urukku it only has 22%. Even if you give the cuirassier C1+shock against an unpromoted Urukku the cuirassier still only has 34% chance to win and 10% chance to retreat. This is against a 60 hammer unpromoted unit on flatland. An unpromoted knight has 4.4% chance (27% against regular pike). Obviously in the game there will be promotions and knights and better benefit a lot from combat promotions, but as shown in the cuirassier example this is still an incredibly effective unit. You build it early to annihilate knights and then keep building them as they're so cheap for what they do. Unpromoted cavalry has 34% chance to win on flatland.

A possible problem when defending with pikes is that the opponent might have a mix of muskets and knights. What do you know, strength 8 compared to 6 is a massive difference. If fortified on defensive terrain or in a city the musket too will lose. Its only real weakness is macemen and xbows, but you can cover for that in other ways. When its counters in the mace and xbow fade away in the renaissance the unit gains a second wind thanks to cost effectiveness.

I think this civ is bonkers and everyone ahead of me in the snakepick (and possibly Krill when he balanced the civs) made a mistake. It's similar to how in vanilla you'd keep making praetorians in the renaissance because the 8 strength was so good for the hammer cost. This is slightly more expensive, but OTOH you get to demolish mounted units in return. It's not a "mass this unit and attack to win" type of unit, it plays more of a supportive role, but by god is it useful. Having access to CR promotions is very useful to have them switch into a more aggressive role on demand.

[Rusten]

To elaborate on the previous point it's an excellent mop-up unit later (especially with cannons if the game lasts that long). My musket example was defensive, but it goes the other way too. If you're attacking into a stack of knights and muskets you can tear it apart with just a little bit of siege+Urukku. With a regular pike you'd need a lot more siege before you start getting good odds against the muskets.

I picked the civ for the UB, but the UU is definitely up there too. Neither are broken on their own I suppose, but to have both together is pretty damn good.

[Rusten]

To explain the arbitrary rating categories:
Strength: The one that truly matters TBH. It's the perceived strength of the civ+leader. First impression only and I might revise my opinion later.
Fun: How much fun I think the combo would be to play. Very subjective.
Flair: Concept borrowed from the Football Manager games. In those games basically the capability to make an unpredictable decision. In this context a pick that goes beyond the norm and is interesting and/or unexpected in some way. For instance picking industrious and then a forge UB results in a very low flair rating unless something else adds to it. I can't promise to have been consistent in this ranking as these are not all done at the same time, but I'll just put that down to my own personal high flair rating.

Old Harry + Hitru: Victoria [FIN/IMP] of Inca
Inca: Agriculture/Mysticism. UB: Granary replacement: Terrace, +1 culture, cost 45 hammers, No trait production modifier. UU: Warrior replacement: Quechua. +100% against archery units.

All those changes and the Inca still get first picked, poor Krill.  Some things never change I guess. Victoria seems good, but they didn't have much left to choose from so they might not be fully satisfied. Can't pick pro, can't pick cre and almost all the exp leaders were gone.

I expect another solid performance from OH+Hitru. Being a team is a good way to keep motivation up and remain focused throughout the game so they have no excuses. OH will spreadsheet the micro and together they will probably make good overall decisions. Their strategy should be straightforward -- aggressive landgrab with settlers and hold it somehow. Not much more to say -- Inca is similar to what it's always been.

Strength: 4.5/5
Fun: 2/5
Flair: 2/5

GeneralKillCavalry: Darius [FIN/ORG] of Aztecs
Aztecs: Hunting/Mysticism. UB: Courthouse replacement: Sacrificial Alter. 50% anger duration after sacrificing population, +2 priest slots, +1 happy requires Monotheism, cost 90. UU: Sword replacement. Starts with Woodsman 2.

Aztec is nice, although I don't think it's 4th pick material. I played this a lot in vanilla, but whipping is not what it used to be. As with any pick personal motivation is going to be the #1 factor and that's fine. Maybe he just really wanted to play this and was willing to concede some practical chances. Or maybe I'm ranking it too low, who knows. Overall it's very slow, but if Darius can get going he's a menace late game. A civ I'd at the very least like to pressure heavily, if not attack, if next to me. Can't leave it space to breathe.

GKC is relatively new to RB but looks like a decent enough player and a good sport. He was dealt a really bad hand in PB44 so I kinda hope he gets a better go of it here and that he sticks around for more pitbosses. Friendly, sociable players that report often is what makes these pitbosses fun. That's how you get me as a dedlurker at least.

Strength: 3/5
Fun: 3/5
Flair: 2/5

TBW: Shaka [EXP/AGG] of Rome
Rome: Fishing/Mining. UB: Market replacement: Forum. +35% GPP. UU: Sword replacement. Strength 7, cost 40 hammers.

Don't have much to say about this pick. It's been done before and it's pretty strong. More scary to face than strong in itself perhaps. Another player I don't want as my neighbour. It's not so much that RtR praetorians are unbeatable, but more that inexperienced players who specifically pick an early UU like this often want to use it no matter what. So even if I prepare he might attack anyway and ruin both of our games. If we share a border I hope he's picked them to deter attacks.

Don't know the player, but from what's been posted on the forums he's an average badgame player. He'll know how to play but will probably struggle to win. I'd imagine he'll not be completely efficient and I can outbuild him in the long run.

Strength: 4/5 (Shaka is great)
Fun: 3/5
Flair: 1/5

2MetraNinja: Mao [EXP/PRO] of Ethiopia
Ethiopia: Hunting/Mining. UB: Monument replacement. 1 Merchant slot; gives sentry to units built in this city. UU: Musket replacement. Oromo warrior. Starts with Drill 2 and Drill 4.

How you can pick this civ over India beats me, but what's done is done. On the upside the leader has Exp (highly sought after) and pro which synergizes with the civ, but I feel it's one of those synergy, but for what? Drill 1, 2, 3 and 4 Oromo's isn't going to win the game I think. Maybe I'll feel differently about it when I look at the combat ramifications.

2MetraNinja has been playing pitbosses for a decade and knows what he's doing, but he's never done well on RB AFAIK. Think he has too many RL commitments to give the game the attention required for being a contender to win, or maybe he just has no aspirations and is playing casually. He never updates his spoiler thread so it's hard to tell. I hope he won't stall the game too much.

Strength: 2/5
Fun: 2/5
Flair: 2.5/5

Elkad: Churchill [CHM/PRO] of Native America
Native America: Hunting/Agriculture. UB: Monument replacement: Totem Pole. +3XP to Archery units, +1XP to Gunpowder units. Obsoletes at Assembly Line. UU: scout replacement. Tracker. Starts with Woodsman 3, can create Totem Pole. Upgrades to Explorer and musketman.

The madman picked NA. It's an odd civ so who knows, but my feeling is it's garbage. At least he got the perfect leader for it so he'll be prickly, but I'd be surprised if he doesn't fade into obscurity as the game goes on.

Elkad is a regular player, but a casual one (by his own admission) so I don't expect fireworks. I'd rather stay clear of him as he'll be annoying to invade.

Strength: 2/5
Fun: 2.5/5
Flair: 1/5

Pindicator: Pacal [EXP/FIN] of Arabia
Arabia: Mysticism/Agriculture. UB: Library replacement: Madrassa. 2 Priest slots, 4 culture, cost 70. UU: Knight replacement: Camel Archer. starts with March. Does not require Horse.

The first player to pick a leader and a very good one at that. More surprised about the civ choice. Arabia is OK, but it's very average so it's puzzling to pick it over something new and average. Starting techs really shouldn't matter all that much in the current RtR version. Maybe he has 2 agriculture resources and want to go religion first? That's the only reason I can see right now.

Feels like Pindicator has played more civ 6 than civ 4 in recent years, but it shouldn't matter much. I also remember a comment from PB41 that he got very interested in playing again after dedlurking Commodore, so chances are he gives this game a real go. Fin and Exp are the 2 most sought after traits this game I think and he's got both of them. Should be a contender, but I have no real read on his playing style.

Strength: 3.5/5
Fun: 2.5/5
Flair 4/5

[Rusten]

So I've made a big deal about Stonehenge so far, but it's not set in stone.

What's enticing to me about the wonder is not just quick development of early cities, that's not enough in itself, but I feel like the prophet GPP could be of huge benefit to my growth later on. If SH is built early then I'll get the first GP so early that it can be settled. This will be a shared GS/prophet. Settle prophet or academy/settle GS. The key point is great person #2. This will also be a shared pool and if I get a prophet then I can bulb theology for religion and AP. If I get a GS then I can bulb philosophy for pacifism and religion. Either of those are good but I definitely prefer the prophet.

Playing spiritual without access to a religion feels terrible as you can't do an early swap to OR where other leaders might wait for a golden age or hereditary rule to couple it with. It's so important that I may even avoid polluting the first GP and save it for theology. Having a religion gives you a lot of happiness (2 in every city with cheap temples) and the AP hammers are excellent. I'll also get a shrine at some point. The extra hammers and shrine will help me scale along with the FIN leaders. This is a random B&S map so there's not going to be enough natural luxuries out there.

The downside is that spiritual can easily pop borders with caste come the mid game, so monuments aren't as useful as they could be. If the nearby land isn't SH-friendly (read: doesn't require early border pops), then it might not be worth the delay in expansion. But I'm really struggling to secure an early religion without using GPP.

Generally speaking I feel GPP is the part of the game most people on here don't master. A lot of players expand well, lay down cottages and tech to knights. But they get there without using GPP other than a random golden age. It really is the single most powerful game feature for teching and achieving goals in the early game, and you should make a plan for it from the beginning. Including a great engineer, prophet or even merchant in some way can pay dividends. If I skip on this SH-prophet plan then I need to come up with something else, possibly a GE for engineering.

[Rusten]

Some more musings on theology bulb:
One potential downside is that it opens up paper, which means that the astronomy lightbulb is no longer an option. But this could just as easily be turned into a strength. With the new RtR mod you don't have to rush towards astronomy immediately and furthermore there are no philosophical leaders IIRC so I can probably get to liberalism first with ease. I could just take astronomy as the free tech instead. Bulbing theology means civil service can potentially be skipped until after liberalism which saves ~1500 beakers. Bureaucracy won't help much here anyway it appears.

Pursuing liberalism does weaken you, but who'd want to attack into strength 8 pikes anyway? I can see this game going one of two ways. The first being a prophet-based strategy where I get a religion, AP, UoS and liberalism and rely on the UU to deter attacks. The second is a GE-based strategy where I bulb engineering and rely on the UU offensively and try to grab tons of land before the renaissance. Which way I go depends on the early scouting turns (both land and neighbours) and whether I can get Stonehenge. But I'm hoping I can pursue the former as I think both my leader pick and the lack of rival philosophical and spiritual picks makes the approach extra strong and reliable. Aggressive India can always be done, but the prophet version looks tailor-made for this particular game.

[naufragar]

With the new RtR mod you don't have to rush towards astronomy immediately and furthermore there are no philosophical leaders IIRC so I can probably get to liberalism first with ease.

I guess this is more evidence for your point that people on here don't use GPP optimally. I remember reading TBS's PB38 thread, I think, and he wrote out the math for his Math bulb and it turned out each scientist for him was something like a 0/0/35 tile. I'd never think in those terms, but once it's laid out, it's like "Yeah. This is nuts." (This was a Phi leader, however.) I know people way back in the day, like BtS era, were down on Phi because a Phi leader doesn't actually get that many more bulbs or golden ages than a non-philosophical one over the course of the game. Phi just gets them earlier. And without Phi, it gets harder to justify, e.g., TBS's math bulb, your potential Theology bulb, when it means your luxuriant later game golden ages get more tricky. I think you're right that GPP and with them Philosophical are underused here, but I think there are somewhat legitimate reasons/explanations.

[Rusten]

Yeah, when you look at the yield for the first few GPs it's nuts, even for non-philosophical leaders. You just have to take advantage somehow. You mention the struggle of golden ages after lightbulbing, but that's another reason why spiritual goes so well with this -- there's no need to start a GA for civic swaps. Players often do this either late medieval or early renaissance, but I can choose to save my golden age for later if I don't need the tile output. Another benefit is that it provides a rare source of GPP. I'm pretty sure the AP gives prophet points, so in addition to SH that's 4 per turn. That's going to result in a great prophet at some point for my 3rd golden age, at least with the added help of priests.

The first and second golden ages are easy to come by for everyone, you simply use a GS/GM and then a GS+GM after running caste during the first golden age. The problem is getting the 3rd type for your 3rd golden age. This is something you have to plan way in advance. You might have to resort to running artists for a long time in cities, but this is difficult as it's almost 100% reliant on caste. To generate a merchant or scientist you have other economic buildings to help out outside of caste and their output is better too. I'll have a prophet available for this use and I could even feasibly start a 4th golden age if this game goes really long. In essence, lightbulbing theology should be beneficial to future golden ages even if it "wastes" a great person.

Theology is going to be ~1000 beakers with our settings I believe, so SH will in a way generate almost 20 passive beakers per turn once it's built. I think the best approach is to run 2x scientists in a secondary city and have it reach 100 GPP at the same time as the capital. Great people spawn in order depending on when the city was founded, not random or whichever city has the most GPP start of turn, so if things go to plan I can have my GS ~16 turns after the prophet regardless of caste usage. That said, getting it quickly would only matter if I want to make an academy, which I probably won't as it's late in the game and lightbulbs already give full yield. Lightbulbing paper, philosophy or education should be better.

[Rusten]

I'm really going back and forth on the opening here. Probably a good sign that I have many options that are all worth considering, but it'll be real hard to make a final decision.

An alternative to SH I'm looking at right now is the probability of getting a religion without a prophet. If I'm first to Buddhism then I could potentially build a temple to run a priest for theology (AP) later. Potentially build Moai Statues to speed it up further (that wonder is good now). But I think I can immediately discard the hunting-meditation-BW tech path, it felt too slow. If the 2nd city only requires hunting it might be back on the table, but even then I may decide against it. More likely is hunting-BW-meditation, with agriculture or fishing before meditation if necessary, but at that point I'm fairly unlikely to get the religion. I'm sure someone will sacrifice too much and get it very early -- there are a lot of myst civs out there. It will also delay pottery more than I like.

Getting the prophet through Oracle is another option, but it comes with some problems. I don't really have any tech I'm looking to rush. Getting monarchy extra early is OK, but I do have the +1 happy granary already. Getting early MC doesn't do much as the forge is too expensive to build anyway. One interesting idea could be Oracle->MC and then build a forge and run engineer for GPP. If I get a GE then I can rush machinery, engineering or even the Pyramids (probably gone). If I get a prophet I can follow the original plan of theology. Taking early HBR to kill someone is always an option though. Sadly competition for Oracle is pretty rough, and while priesthood is fairly cheap meditation and polytheism are not. I have a preference for delaying religion and grabbing one of the later ones (Tao, Conf, Christ). Anything that delays pottery must be scrutinized. Starting with mysticism is not a problem as early calcs show that pottery is still attainable ~turn 40 with all of the food techs researched.

Having written all of that now SH still seems the best play to me. It enables early pottery for my UB (no expensive religion techs needed and cities can start on it immediately instead of a monument) and sets up my religion for when I need it later in addition to late game scaling through the AP, UoS and SM. I feel there's more competition for early religion and The Oracle than for SH looking at civ+leader list. I have a very early SH micro plan that I was happy with. The earliness of the date is making me question it a little bit, but expansion still looks decent. I'm sure it will raise some eyebrows upon completion, but this is an extremely fast starting BFC for expansive. First ring 6F tile that only requires 4 turns to improve and the earlier worker. Another good thing about the micro plan is that 2 forests are chopped the turn I'm completing SH, so if it's built just before me I can put those chops into a settler instead. The only super bad scenario would be losing a coinflip from completing it on the same turn -- that would ruin my game.

[Rusten]

Very interesting starting turn actually. Not one, not two, but three new resources were revealed!




Having that coastal fish there is excellent. I talked about my disappointment of not being able to share my best food tile with the 2nd city, but I can build a work boat in capital to give it a flying start in a different way. Even more happy to have expansive now, a single chop+turn of production will complete a work boat, but I definitely need to sim carefully cause this start has loads of options that are not obvious. Will be interesting to see what else the scout finds to the west, but settling on the plains hill with fish in 1st ring looks mighty strong already. It will be quick to develop and can pick up some slack from the capital getting SH. Over the last few days I thought about chopping SH in my 2nd city, but this looks unlikely now.

In my previous plan I got a 3rd worker before my 2nd settler, but now that the first settler potentially does not need a worker to escort it and improve food tile (replaced by work boat) that 3rd worker can potentially be delayed. Settler before 2nd worker could even be the right play now too, but not as convinced about that. Earlier worker is pretty important to have time to chop SH. 

I'll contain my excitement and not waste time running sims until I see all of city #2's BFC, but I'm very happy about this. My land being good means other players' lands are good too, but first impression is that this coastal fish fits perfectly into my starting turns puzzle. To put it another way, if I had this updated vision when making my picks I'd be even more inclined to take Isabella of India.

[darrelljs]

Advice: don't intentionally bungle the opening to give your inferior opponents a fighting chance .

Darrell