[SPOILER] Dark Savant's thread: Competition for limited resources remains a constant

[taotao]

Focus seems to be fairly set on wonders, but I thought I'd map out a couple of potential cities to keep up the pretense of expansion being important too.



Red dot is, as discussed, a gamble. With Stonehenge it's a decent enough city (certainly the next best after the capital), but without major culture it's a hopelessly slow starter.
Blue dot will be fine once fish is hooked, but before then it can't grow. (Potential GLH).
Yellow dot otoh can grow, but needs animal husbandry to add anything new. Needs a lighthouse for the semi-food that is crabs, but will stay small and won't build a wonder due to few forests.
Green dot is quite ok. Need a wb whipped/chopped, but can start decently if sheep is stolen from red dot. One of 3 candidates for GLH if going for that wonder (cap and blue being the others).
Orange is good. We're not spoiled with first ring food. Very far from the cap though, so probably a slightly later settlement.
Purple is filler. Good filler eventually, but too slow starting to have any kind of priority.
Turquoise is off shore. Big priority if getting GLH, less if not.

[Dark Savant]

Okay, my micro screw-up doesn't make any difference in the time the first settler or to Stonehenge at least.

Turn 28 (2880 BC)

Our scout finds a small freshwater lake with clams.



That's too far north for a second or even third city, but it'll have to be taken into account for dot mapping.

C&D:

• OH/Hitru got a technology, very likely The Wheel.
  
• GeneralKilCavalry got a cheap first-column technology, probably Agriculture.
  
• Rusten is the first player to plant their second city.  We'll be eight turns behind in planting our second city; the early settler move accounts for much of this, of course.
  

Mysticism is due next turn, and no religion has yet been founded.  We're in the position of not needing Agriculture until the mid-t40s or so, so I'm actually seriously contemplating gambling on an early religion even though that was not my original plan.

Let's see who might be doing so:

• Adler doesn't yet have Bronze Working; he's about to get whatever it is he's on.
  
• 2metraninja is playing Ethiopia, which suggests use of the newly updated Stele to spawn an early Great Merchant, not a Prophet.
  
• OH/Hitru just got The Wheel and very likely want Pottery next, otherwise what are they doing with the Inca?
  
• GeneralKilCavalry just got Agriculture this turn.  He's likely to research Monotheism early, so he's a prime candidate to land Judaism, but he's probably not in a huge rush.
  
• Commodore already has Pottery, or possibly Animal Husbandry, and is likely researching Bronze Working.
  
• BaII probably spent significant time getting Animal Husbandry, and is also probably on Bronze Working.
  
• Rusten probably doesn't have Agriculture yet.  He either wants that first, or is chasing a religion now now -- Isabella of India is a good candidate for that.
  
• Krill has Bronze Working and a couple other unknown first-column technologies.  Might want to chase religion, but that seems doubtful to me.
  
• TBW is Shaka of Rome.  He wants to fight someone, not play the religion game.
  
• Borsche is Creative, so Mysticism/religion isn't really worth pursuing.
  
• pindicator is Pacal of Arabia.  He's a good candidate for chasing religion, though he doesn't yet have Bronze Working.
  
• superdeath is Boudica of America.  He also wants to fight someone.
  
• Gavagai probably only wants to found an early religion if he's building Stonehenge.  But he's Aggressive, unlike me, so he doesn't need Stonehenge as much.
  
• BeardBeard already has Bronze Working, started with Mysticism, and also has not showed up with a technology for 5 turns.  I think odds are good he's chasing a religion.
  
• Elkad probably does not want to make such a roll of the dice, from my read on him.
  

So the two major threats are Rusten and BeardBeard, with pindicator the next most likely possibility.

Any opinions on whether this is worth trying?  A failed attempt is still potentially progress towards the Oracle, though I feel that isn't as valuable as the Great Lighthouse.  And if we try this, which religion do I pursue?

[Dark Savant]

Ooh, I didn't see that before I posted.

Focus seems to be fairly set on wonders, but I thought I'd map out a couple of potential cities to keep up the pretense of expansion being important too.

I think that since it's likely we have an island all to ourselves, chasing wonders, even 2+, is the right play, since we can skimp on defense and are less concerned with losing "our" rightful territory.

Red dot is, as discussed, a gamble. With Stonehenge it's a decent enough city (certainly the next best after the capital), but without major culture it's a hopelessly slow starter.
Blue dot will be fine once fish is hooked, but before then it can't grow. (Potential GLH).
Yellow dot otoh can grow, but needs animal husbandry to add anything new. Needs a lighthouse for the semi-food that is crabs, but will stay small and won't build a wonder due to few forests.
Green dot is quite ok. Need a wb whipped/chopped, but can start decently if sheep is stolen from red dot. One of 3 candidates for GLH if going for that wonder (cap and blue being the others).
Orange is good. We're not spoiled with first ring food. Very far from the cap though, so probably a slightly later settlement.
Purple is filler. Good filler eventually, but too slow starting to have any kind of priority.
Turquoise is off shore. Big priority if getting GLH, less if not.

Yeah, the plan on red dot is to plant 1N of it if Stonehenge disappears before it even gets planted.  That corn is a little too good to pass up early otherwise.  I don't think I'd make such a gamble if there were a better candidate for a second city.

Orange is very good, but it's too far away to consider as a second city.

Green early has the problem that it'll be awkward negotiating an early work boat there.  I don't like it for a second city partly for that reason.

[Dark Savant]

Turn 32 (2720 BC)

A few more turns have elapsed.  I brought our scout back to cover our workers and settler (there's still no contact).  Losing the 40-ish foodhammers from t0 settler move means that one of the sacrifices is some early scouting.



It has a relatively low opportunity cost, so I made the decision to try for a religion.  I basically flipped a coin and it came up with Hinduism.  Odds are <50% but I think it's worth trying.

Trying to track everyone's exact population by C&D is running into trouble; didn't expect that this early, but I can't make the numbers come out perfectly now.

Gavagai has apparently researched Mysticism.  That's not surprising; I expect him to make a run for the Oracle, but if he tries to get Stonehenge he can beat us easily, what with our t0 capital move.

BaII probably actually has Bronze Working; he probably aborted it mid-run to get a cheap tech.

Lots of people have their second city by now: by now it's OH/Hitru, GeneralKilCavalry, Rusten, Borsche, pindicator, superdeath, BeardBeard.

[Dark Savant]

Turn 34 (2640 BC)

I actually remembered to whip the settler last turn!  This is rather late to be starting a whip clock, oh well.



Hinduism was founded in a distant land this turn, so I aborted Polytheism and swapped over to Agriculture.

Normally, it's easy to tell who the founder was, but I can't tell if it was Rusten or BeardBeard.  Both started with Mysticism, both have a food tech and Bronze Working, both hadn't showed up with a new tech for a while.  I get the impression both tried to found Hinduism and it was a coinflip.

That means we probably could have very good odds on choosing Buddhism if I had chosen that, but it's too late to start that now I think.

Three people flipping a coin, all come up heads.  

Commodore has a granary in what is still a single city.  It's growing too fast not to have one.  He's Protective and probably not too happy about potential plant sites.

[Dark Savant]

I'll be making an unexpected international trip to Paris, arriving on Saturday.

I did not even know this was a possibilty until last Friday, and didn't know the destination until early this week.

Lots of scrambling to arrange everything at the last minute is currently transpiring.  So nope, it's not particularly calm at work.

Alas, we do not have the tech to build any authentic French wonder for a screenshot of the wonder both in-game and in real life. 

[Dark Savant]

Turn 35 (2600 BC)

Our settler moves into position to plant next turn ...



Red dot has been blessed by the giant blue circle in the sky!  

... okay, that doesn't mean much when you can see all the tiles it can work, but still. 

It'll still be a few more turns before I can return the scout from sentry duty to scouting duty.  Things that happen when your whole military is still a single warrior this late.

Commodore 2-pop-whipped his capital, presumably for a settler.  That reminds me, Churchill would have been a good-looking pick for this map, but I played that last game.

[Dark Savant]

Rather frenetically busy, what with preparing for an unexpected trip to Paris rather than posting random things in this thread. 

Then again, I'll get to see France for the first time ever!

Turn 38 (2480 BC)



No new contacts.  I completed a work boat to work the second fish, and while we grow the population to actually work it, I had the work boat scout a bit, enough to find that the island to our east is a whole three tiles.

No one has founded Buddhism still, which is awful late for turn 38 in a game with 16 players and extra-cheap first-column techs.  We probably would have had it if I had chosen Meditation instead of Polytheism, ah well.

No one has built Stonehenge.  The first chop will go into it next turn if no one completes it next turn.

Speaking of which, Krill is Up To Something.  Not a shocking surprise, I know.  He's now the only rival still on a single city; the other holdouts in planting were Commodore last turn and Elkad this turn.

Krill must have a granary in his only city, despite having no discount for it, as he managed to grow two pop in t33-t34.  Before that, he whipped his capital all the way down to size 1 not once, but twice.  It's now size 5, so he's now probably one short of the happy cap.  He is still growing while building something that isn't a worker or settler, and it very well might be Stonehenge.

I'm skeptical t44 can beat Krill if he's doing this; he has 15-16 land tiles in his capital, second-most in the game, giving him more hills to mine and forests to chop.  Can't be afraid of that though, I still have to keep going.  (You get Pottery this early, you probably want to start a few early cottages.)

[Dark Savant]

Hmm.

I hadn't looked too closely before, but rival best production has been 11/hammers turn or higher since t32.  Krill must have completed a granary by t32 at the latest by my read.  And no earlier than t30; he researched a tech on t29 that is probably Pottery, so couldn't before that.  Whip overflow and two chops can get him his no-discount granary on this schedule.

If that production has been Krill working a bunch of mines building Stonehenge, that'll complete by about t43 even without any chops.

But that can't be the case for the earlier turns; Krill had to work high food to grow this fast, so that'll be delayed by a few turns.  So I'll likely beat him if he just builds straight out, but I think he beats me if he has any chops at his disposal, or does a multi-pop whip.

[JR4]

Fingers crossed for Stonehenge. What is the plan if someone beats you to it? At least the fail gold should fuel the economy for a good while.

Can you afford sending out a Work boat to find out how far away you are from the closest neighbour? If, say, the Cows E of the capital is contested it might be worthwhile to prioritize settling that island asap.

Could you post demos on one of the coming turns? I`m curious how the numbers compare to the others.