[SPOILERS] TheArchduke blasts into Space as Russia

[TheArchduke]

Turn 11

   

Cardiff? Really. The worst CS of the worst category. +2 power per harbour building?   
All other boni are way better. Just a question of how and when that city is conquered or razed.

   

Naming sheme is the Design Bureaus. I think the western religious site at Bratukhin is actually better, +3 and it keeps the mountainside for a 2nd campus.

   

I really hope for god of festivals by now. 3 more dyes!

Scouting. The warrior will head back towards the planned site at Bratukhin, protect the settler then continue NW. The scout will head NE for a bit and then sweep south. I could really use a second scout or slinger to scout south.

[williams482]

All right, I'm convinced. I did some very rough math, and giving the capital an extra spice to work doesn't move the needle on settler #2 nearly as much as I expected. Western site it is.

Chances are a horse and/or iron resource will pop up and "ruin" it, but right now the plains tile 2 south of Korolev looks like a perfect Government Plaza site, eventually bosting six districts from three cities and in easy reach of your best settler factory city. If you do plan to put it there, I think you should consider moving the eastern city site west one tile to make the Govt-Plaza-adjacent tiles slightly easier to reach. This also takes you off of the floodplains, which will probably cost some city center yields but reduces the chance of being screwed by a terribly timed flood.

[TheArchduke]

All right, I'm convinced. I did some very rough math, and giving the capital an extra spice to work doesn't move the needle on settler #2 nearly as much as I expected. Western site it is.

Chances are a horse and/or iron resource will pop up and "ruin" it, but right now the plains tile 2 south of Korolev looks like a perfect Government Plaza site, eventually bosting six districts from three cities and in easy reach of your best settler factory city. If you do plan to put it there, I think you should consider moving the eastern city site west one tile to make the Govt-Plaza-adjacent tiles slightly easier to reach. This also takes you off of the floodplains, which will probably cost some city center yields but reduces the chance of being screwed by a terribly timed flood.

Hmm, good point on a gov plaza there. I agree.

[TheArchduke]

Turn 12

With Rome around us without any good boost by a CS (thanks Cardiff) we are in dire straits.
A bit of good luck looms on the horizon, though:

   

Next turn we can establish a lavra. And build it after the settler is finished. I seriously dislike sending the warrior back already, I want to cut east of explore SE. But if a barb camp spawns we are screwed.

   

Will comment more on turn 13 which is coming around.

[TheArchduke]

So, a little of introspection here. Bear with me.
 
I played a terrible game in PBEM 16. I will try not do this again. I analyzed Alhambram´s play and whilst Hungary´s ability is overpowered, both Cornflakes and he did a much, much better job of developing their own civilization, something I think I am at best mediocre. Why? My best guess is focus.
 
I am a by the guts player. I love doing maths, always did, but a lifetime of playing boardgames against inferior or mediocre opponents and the possibility to just pass without an effort shows when confronted with serious, competitive and thoughtful play. My boardgame group has been invaded by the first serious player like in the last 6 years and I struggle to win against him. Mind you I think my gut play is still pretty good, but it is not enough. 
 
I would say that my interior development is along the lines of Cornflakes military play in PBEM 16, doing a little bit of it, without serious planning and then expecting things to run as smoothly as in SP. The problem? I can spend 30-60 minutes puzzling over a military situation because it is tidy, focused, not messy, included in one turn. But I find it not worth the effort to do build plans, turn by turn planning of city development and until recently I refused to try to take advantage of district discounts for god knows why.
 
Things I identified that are missing or lacking in my reports are score analysis, eureka or inspiration preplanning. build orders taking into account production and growth. Now I am doing this but I am doing this all in my head just on the flyby, which works most of the time.
Is this possible? Yes. Does it work all of the time? Of course not.

Let´s go over some errors. I will not include my embarrasing PBEM 1 and PBEM 2 play where I pretty much only goofed around in retrospect.

Terrible city sites

I choose terrible city sites. Sullla is more then happy to point that out in lurker threads if someone else does it. I dislike pointing the finger to others and I have plenty of examples of this on my own.

Exhibit A:




Space Lion is a freaking terrible city. Its first ring has a 4f/1h tile and a 2f/1h tile. It is not on a plains hill, it does not boost my civ. It sort of drags everything down with it. The strategic (military) consideration is valid, I need to push south and stake a claim, but this is not worth a low production city. Now mind you my start beyond my starting city was freaking terrible, but (only) complaining about the map is the retreat of the weak. You play with the hand you are dealt and make the most out of it. My dotmap is valid, but Space Lion? A filler city. It would just site there and grow and produce nothing of consequence even struggling with a half priced religious district, with no possibility of chops or anything else.

Site Blue would have been much, much better. Numerous 4 yield tiles with plenty of production. Chopping oppurtunities, close enough to the capital.

Exhibit B and C:

Both from my mongolian rampage:



What is wrong with me? This city is size 4 and what does it contribute? 2 science and 1 culture. And it languishes with a production of 5 churning out a worker. If not for an unstoppable horse army produced by my capital and my second city I would have easily lost this game. I mean look at it. Or that for the matter:



 I am building a monument for the next 22 turns here. And I used production and/or chops to get settlers out to those two locations. I glossed over this incompetence in the hopes that everyone ignores it. But I need to do better.
Both plants are at a point where the game is definetly not in the sack. Sumeria has not fallen like a house of cards yet and I could have had 4-5 more units instead of wasting time and money with those useless plants.

Knowing full well that a decision is not good and still taking it.

Exhibit A:

Turn 22

We take River Goddess, this may be pure madness, and I may overestimate amenities from my England game, but we are going full Khmer/crazy.  

According to this plan we can establish a River HS in every city we have and mostly good locations as well. So we are doing this. Right now it is +10% to all yields, but this will add up over time and together with the housing ensure that we go for quite big cities. This also means we are doing this for the long haul, with a lot of faith so any aggression will be postponed. I need to adapt my mental plan, but we are going with this. If I am not 1st to a religion, I do not mind being 3rd.

Other minor stuff, founded Space Lion. Going for an immediate 3rd settler (11 turns) for a quick 3rd Holy Site, possible pink dot. We are going full crazy on this one. So no Agoge, no craftsmanship inspiration and less military. I expect to crash and burn with this perhaps.   

Yes, TheArchduke from the past. You know full well why you are putting   next to your decision. There was only one game where amenities really mattered in the long run and whilst the +10% to yields is nice, a quick culture shot in the arm is where it is at. Nicely done wasting your religious CS first meet. You deserve to meet Cardiff first in this game.


Exhibit B:

PBEM 11

I am in position, suited up, ready for war. I am in my element, I got the advantage and I do a terrible, terrible deal:

This is a tough decision. I am very much on the fence here, leaning towards war.

I send Chev a counteroffer. If he takes it I am game. If not, I think I prefer war.

I knew that this was the wrong decision, but I pussied out for what? A city? At a point in the game where only Chev and me really mattered. 

Exhibit C

Another win that could have been easy if I had not been asleep at the wheel for half the game was my last Russia game. 

I had just conquered Germany, had a huge army and was ready for war. Cornflakes I knew was better at yield and development so I offer a new DoF? See where I say, smart move by Cornflakes? Yes indeed it was.

Peace Room it is. Smart move on Cornflakes side, so we need to build better then him now.

Which means builders in every freaking city in preparation for a massive feudalism push.

Only making serious effort when it is too late or nearly too late

Exhibit A:

PBEM 6 my first win and a game I nearly screwed up upon. ONLY my military decisions saved that game. Check out how good a game went when I finally decided to use Excel, I win it.



This is how you do it. Why not do it again sometime, like actually planning?

Exhibit B:

Fighting Varus with warriors and archers and some horseman and winning:



Clap. Why not use some of this brainpower that established a great defensive line and actually establish useful cities.

I am stopping now. So once again, I need to do better. I will try to do so from now on.

[TheArchduke]

Turn 13

Coming back from my rant I laboured over my turn for quite a while longer. We hit size 3 and our production is insane. In fact with Astrology eurekad:

   

I have the option to build a Lavra. We are the first to Crater Lake, seems the west is unexplored so far.

Coupled with Cardiff, we can actually build a lavra in 2 turns! and stonehenge in 12! freaking turns. Could a delay in the settler be worth it? If I had a bad expansion place like in PBEM 16, I would opt for those two.

I continue on the settler but my mind is nagging me. I loose 3 cogs with the pop that goes into settler, 6 cogs if I decide to grow again.

   

   

Should I continue to grow and get the settler out in 4 turns? The accumulated food stays in the city thereby enabling me to regrow to size 3 quicker.
Getting a pantheon is a priority and I could loose out to someone else having a religious CS. Even worse is someone builds stonehenge I could again loose out on good beliefs.

The southern warrior is returning to escort the settler.

   

And I love this city site longterm, but shortterm, meh. Shame my capital has no tundra for some quick faith.

   

[TheArchduke]

Also random thought, maybe I should stop trying to play peaceful.

[williams482]

Gut check is that you should get that Lavra out ASAP if it's only going to take two turns. That's a pantheon two turns quicker, a religion probably the same turn as normal, and no effect on regrowth time. We've got one monster pantheon option and a whole bunch of ehh for backup plans, plus a very strong incentive to grab the consensus best founder belief. We can also use that time to defog a few extra tiles near site #5, although that is unlikely to be meaningfully beneficial.

The cost is two turns of development on city #2, including city #2's Lavra. That's meaningful, but not a killer. Losing the pantheon would hurt. If will also cost us a sum total of 2 faith (+2 Lavra 2 turns quicker, +3 Lavra 2 turns slower), which is trivial.

Quick micro:
t14: Start Lavra
t15: adopt God King.
t16: finish Lavra. 1/25 faith
t17: 4/25
t18: 7/25
t19: 10/25
t20: 13/25
t21: 16/25
t22: 19/25
t23: 22/25
t24: 26/25, first chance at pantheon.

OR:
t15: CoL, adopt God King.
t16: 1/25 faith
t17: Finish settler, start Lavra. 2/25
t18: 3/25
t19: finish Lavra. 4/25
t20: 7/25
t21: 10/25
t22: Settle Bratukhin. 13/25
t23: 16/25
t24: 19/25
t25: 22/25
t26: 26/25, first chance at pantheon.

There is no way Bratukhin can finish it's Lavra fast enough to break even on Pantheon timing.

For reference, Rome settling on t1 with no terrain or CS based culture or faith boosts and similar growth to us would do the following:
t1-t5: 1 pop, +3.3 culture (16.5/20)
t6-t10: 2 pop, +3.6 culture, CoL on t8
t34: pantheon

Meeting a culture CS will have to be very early to affect their timing. Meeting a faith CS on t10 produces the following:
t9: 1/25, +1 fpt
t10: 2/25, +3 fpt
...
t18: 26/25, pantheon.

A non-Rome civ with the same CoL timing as us and a t10 faith CS:
t10: 0/25, +2 fpt
t15: CoL, adopt God King. 10/25, +3 fpt
t20: 25/25, Pantheon.

A non-rome civ with a +1 faith tile worked at pop 2:
t5: 0/25, +1 fpt
t15: CoL, adopt God King. 10/25, +2 fpt
t23: 26/26, Pantheon.

We can't beat t18 or t20 for a pantheon, and we'll wallop anyone without a CS or terrain based faith boost. However, it's not hard at all to outline a scenario where someone is close enough for those two turns to matter, and the 2t delay of the first settler only seems a reasonable price to pay.

Curious to hear Sullla's take, but I'm voting build the Lavra.

[Sullla]

Lots to think about here, busy last turn. For starters, I wouldn't beat yourself up so much for what happened in past games. You've made your share of mistakes but you've also won multiple PBEM games and that's an impressive feat. Everyone makes mistakes because the quality of the players in this community here makes it hard to win. It's very difficult to figure out the correct strategic decision with limited information about what's happening in the wider game, and even the mackotis of the world still don't make the right call every time. The toughest thing to do is figure out where your weaknesses lie and try to improve them over time. For example, I fall too much in love with elaborate micro plans and don't do a great job of seeing things from the point of view of other players. I was never quite able to embrace the mass-whipping of your own nation's population needed to prevail at the highest tier of Civ4 competition. If you can recognize your own weaker area and get better at them over time, that's a huge advantage over most everyone else.

Good news: no one has gotten better at Civ6 over time than TheArchduke. The improvement from the PBEM1 game where we were all learning how to play has been nothing less than staggering. I thought that it would be fun to dedlurk this game party to bounce ideas off of other talented players, and also because TheArchduke's weaker areas (largely city management / economic development) line up well with my stronger areas. I figured I could toss out some ideas and let you pick what sounds like the best plan.

Regarding the current turn, finding a natural wonder just in the nick of time is a great stroke of luck, enough that it balances out finding the crummy Industrial city state. I actually disagree with your suggestion of settler before Lavra and would build the district first for the following reasons:

1) Two turns for a Lavra is insanely cheap and the district itself is really good. If you had swapped on the turn just played, it would have finished Turn 15 and that would deliver a religion 30 turns later on Turn 45. More likely, you'd get a quick Lavra finished at the second city as well and found the religion sometime around Turn 40. This would practically guarantee the first religion and its very powerful beliefs (this is an ideal setup for Choral Music if I've ever seen one). If you go settler before Lavra, the district doesn't get finished until sometime around Turn 22 and that adds a lot more time for someone to attempt a Stonehenge snipe.

2) The Lavra is also worth an instant 2 faith/turn, which lets you skip the God King policy entirely and run the much better Urban Planning policy. Or, alternately, you could run God King + Lavra for 3 faith/turn and have the potential to land the first pantheon of the game. You'd be looking at establishing a pantheon sometime around Turn 25 which should be one of the first players to pick, maybe slower than someone who stumbled across a quick Religion city state but faster than anyone else, even someone who found a Cultural city state. How value would Goddess of Festivals be in this game? Pretty good I'd wager. I think it's worthwhile to go for the super cheap Lavra to give yourself a chance at it.

3) You found a mostly useless Industrial city state. Well guess what - the fast Lavra actually gives you a chance to get some value out of it! Making the best of some bad city state luck there.

4) There are two huge priority items to finish at the capital right now: settler and Lavra. After that, there's nothing that immediately needs to be completed, either a military unit or a builder is likely next. (I would think builder because you probably won't be ready to flip into Agoge immediately for a military unit build. Your call of course.) So the main goal is whatever finishes settler + Lavra quickly, with the next thing out of the capital having much lower priority. Because you lose the population point after finishing the settler, it will be much faster to go Lavra into settler as opposed to the other way around. Now the tradeoff is your second city gets founded slower... but only 2 turns slower! That's not much of a tradeoff! And it even gives your warrior more time to return for escort duty.

Interested to hear your thoughts in response. I can't get over a 2 turn Lavra though, that seems unfair to be that cheap.

[TheArchduke]

Doing turn now, both of you are right, the lavra is too good to pass up.

Silly me, well if I loose the pantheon race by one turn I can blame myself.

More lateron.