[SPOILER] - Suboptimal finds trees, still seeks forest

[suboptimal]

Don't read too much into lurker posts - there've been many times I've made or seen an innocuous post ("I'm so bored, I wish something would happen" or arguing about a silly game mechanic) that players have been started feverishly speculating about. It looks like we're up to at least 3 global lurkers posting, though! So that's something.

Archduke's religion looks entirely predictable. Earth Goddess is always a solid pickup, choral music just makes sense with lavras, and DotF effectively makes you rush proof unless you have the misfortune of spawning next to fucking Hungary. If we're lucky, Archduke is on the other continent, though - Russia is scary but not nearly so threatening if they need to cross the sea to get to you. So, on the whole, if he's over there, it's good news for us since it denies pin or Mystery Neighbor X good religious beliefs.

I'm hoping that Archduke and Cornflakes are on the same continent and there's two others with them. That would force the entire landmass to go into "stop Rome" mode followed by a pivot to "prevent cossacks". I have a feeling our land mass is the three civ one, only because the space between me, Pindicator and Unmet Civ feels a lot like the space between Woden and myself in PBEM 14.

Regarding attack tactics, the only thing I'm concerned about is the blue archer. If there's a hill on the fogged tile he may be cut off from attacking. If you can scout with the red archer before committing to going around the mountains, that'd be ideal. If you can't, I would err on the side of caution and bring him down the west side so we know he can engage. Green can take his place instead. Hopefully 2 potatoes and a warrior should be enough for the first city. The only way I can imagine saving it would be for him to kill the warrior, so definitely prioritize preserving him over an archer. An archer loss would sting but not be too concerning given how fast you can crank 'em out.

A mountain or a coat is the only tile type that obstructs the blue archer (indeed, the entire eastern approach). We already know the fogged tile is not a mountain, otherwise we would have seen it when the warrior first entered the city's borders (mountains are visible from three tiles away). Fog-gazing shows that it's a land tile -- the river can barely be seen through the map fog heading down the eastern edge of that tile. If the fogged tile is a hill it doesn't block the blue archer. It only prevents the blue archer attacking on Turn 42 if it's forested as that would require 3MP to enter. The tile directly NE of the city is open grassland. We'll know what that tile is with the Red Archer's first MP of the next turn.

if pin rushes to walls, just follow Alhambram's play in PBEM16 and buy a ram. I'd preserve our gold for that eventuality. It will significantly harm our archer attack, but if he doesn't get stronger melee units 2 or 3 warriors should still be able to overwhelm capital walls. And if he goes for masonry, then there's no conceivably way he could reach Bronze Working and then Iron Working for swords. On the whole we're in very good shape I think.

Barring pillaging a gold-yielding improvement (which aren't in these parts) or a barbarian camp it will be 14 more turns to have enough money to buy a battering ram (260). Three warriors would not be enough to take down walls without a ram -- they'd be doing 5-6 points of damage each per attack, archers would do 5 and the city would be shooting back the whole time. Four archers and three warriors could probably take down the walls in four or five turns with some care. Four archers and two warriors could take down the walls in a single turn with average rolls. Pindicator will be stuck - even with Masonry he'd need time to build the walls (he wouldn't be able to chop because he'd likely lose the builder), Bronze Working would get him spears, which could raise the garrison defense enough to be a pain. Archery would be problematic but then the warriors just get Tortoise (which I'd probably take first as a precaution and to neutralize any slingers) and that's solved.

Our biggest issue will be getting through Wealth of Nations. Do that and the terrain opens up (no chokepoints) and we'll have the backups arrive as the front line troops are healing.

[suboptimal]

Knock on wood that volcano doesn't erupt and kill our army.

Uh huh.  You had to go and say that. 

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

oh, for some reason I had the city misplaced in my mental map and thought the blue archer might have to shoot over a hill. Oops!

As for warriors vs. walls, I was assuming a ram. 14 turns to save should be plenty considering that pin would need to research and build walls, I just think we should reserve the gold until then in case of emergency.

And yeah, I think best case scenario is Rome, Greece, Australia, and Russia over there while we're alone with Khmer and Cree over here. I doubt we're that lucky but you never know!

[suboptimal]

Turn 40

Mining is done, start Bronze Working. The +2 Campus at Mashed goes down on the GFH and the city will take 6 turns to build it. I realized that when working on my micro that I had a 20% discount to district construction. That’ll help a bit. Up in the north the slinger woke up and attacked my archer. Pindicator moved his scout up the isthmus. I move the western archer to the GFH the scout previously occupied. I might be able to sandwich his scout his here if we declare on Turn 42. As for the other archer I move up onto the hill and kill the slinger. This earns me a promotion, reveals some tundra and the apparently untouched barbarian camp. I expect the spearman to move out to attack next turn; that’s fine, I need to clear the camp for some and the Military Tradition inspiration. Nothing interesting on settlervision. A picture:




I wonder if Mashed’s settler should head up here and settle where the archer is instead of the marsh off to the west. It’s a little food-sparse but we’d get some and from the wines, the wheat could be part of a future food triangle, there a reef-side +2 Campus location and I could plonk a relatively protectable Harbor down in that inlet. Thoughts? We do have some time (13 turns, in fact) to kill the barbarian camp, Pindicator’s archer and defog across the river.

Edit: Ran some post-report micro on the city up here and compared against the marsh spot to the west. We'd settle out of Mashed three turns faster, generate almost twice the production with no improvements and set up to be a reasonably good city. The city could go builder->galley. We'd have Ilkum when the city was founded and could swap into the 100% ship policy after the builder was out. That would still let us get out galleys in both seas in the mid-70's. Coincidentally if we settled at the Abarath River with Dauphinoise's settler both cities should found on Turn 57.

Turning to Khmer I move the warrior to the geothermal vent. That doesn’t show anything new. The Kabul warrior has moved northeast off the copper. That’s good because it’s out of the way. Red Archer moves 1 tile east and…



(taken after Red Archer moves onto the hill to the east)

It’s open floodplain wheat. OK, so I’ll be attacking into the teeth of two possible natural disasters but the route is wide open. I exhaust my movement on the hilltop (since I can get to the intended T41 position next turn). It does reveal something else interesting – a now-defogged tile with wheat to the east has 1 and 2 extra yield that it shouldn’t have. I drop out to the wiki and see that those yields are associated with the Delicate Arch and can, in fact, make out “De” in the fog. I’ll worry about discovering that later as I do need an era point or two to avoid a dark age. As for the name Ogaden Desert, well, it’s not assigned to any civ, so no new info there. Likewise, Se Kong River is in the Khmer list, so that’s not informative. Anyway, moving right along…

Blue, Green and Yellow archers move as planned. War will be declared on Turn 42. I’m going to flip the locations of the blue and red archers, putting blue closer to the city since it has a little more health.

One thought – we could move the hilltop archer 2SW, declare and shoot next turn, with the blue archer on the wheat by the geothermal vent and ready to move up as scheduled on T42. The attack would do only 11 points to the city (after it heals) but it might panic Pindicator into spending gold on a non-warrior unit. We wouldn’t know what, if anything, is in the city until we attacked but that extra 11 points of damage (after garrison healing) actually makes it possible to take the city on Turn 43 if it’s undefended. Thoughts? As a side bonus I’d be able to kill his northern scout next turn as well, then clean up the barbarian camp unimpeded.

Alhambram and TBS have completed their 5th techs. Mining was our sixth. Pindicator has gained 10 milpower since last turn.

[Banzailizard]

I am a little dubious about settling the north spot first. Its an ok spot, and you are right it has room to grow, but with low food, that means low pop, and a slow ROI. Farm triangles are nice, but you won't have the tech for them until latter anyways. Culture would be nice, but with WON, you hardly will need gold. How long would it take to trek up north vs south? Can you model out the expected outputs of each city for say 20 turns and see what gets you better results? I suspect that even with a little extra walking time, Mashed->Marshed is best.

No comment on the military side of things at this time.

[CFCJesterFool]

Yeah, I'd declare war next turn if you can kill the scout (north of Mashed.) Redirecting Mashed's settler is fine. Probably time for another builder out of Mashed as well (need the Masonry eureka and there is a diamond tile to mine (at Dauphinoise) plus the wine at the new relocated settling spot.) There are so many good spots to settle. The problem is number of build queues. Not every city has to grow tall so a slow growing helper city (focused on trader(s), builders, not immediately needed military) founded earlier will imo, be more helpful NOW than a better spot settled later. The quicker build queue is that important imo.

[suboptimal]

I am a little dubious about settling the north spot first.  Its an ok spot, and you are right it has room to grow, but with low food, that means low pop, and a slow ROI.  Farm triangles are nice, but you won't have the tech for them until latter anyways.  Culture would be nice, but with WON, you hardly will need gold.   How long would it take to trek up north vs south?  Can you model out the expected outputs of each city for say 20 turns and see what gets you better results? I suspect that even with a little extra walking time, Mashed->Marshed is best.

No comment on the military side of things at this time.

Not counting improvements or policies, just city growth, raw yields (including bonus food and production for happiness) for first 20 turns:

Marshed, Found Turn 59, as of EoT79: 66.2, 23, 13.8, 0.  City works Marsh -> JFH -> Grassland Hill.  Salt would be the first tile acquired.  3 population growing to 4 EoT80. City is yielding 3.3:food, 4.0, 0, 1.5, 0.9

North, Found Turn 57, as of EoT77: 125, 19, 11.4, 21.  City works Wines -> Wheat -> Plains Hill.  3 population, no pop growth in the next 10 turns without improvements.  City is yielding 1.1:food, 8.0, 1.0, 1.5, 0.9

North gets up and running a bit faster as it could complete a builder and either a galley and a Campus much quicker than Marshed. 

For comparison, here's Abarath River vs Southeastern Lake (just east of salt):

SE Lake, Found Turn 55, as of EoT75: 100, 25, 15, 10.  City works Bananas -> Cows -> Salt -> JFH 2NE.  4 Population, growth to 5 pop around EoT84. City is yielding 4.4:food, 7.0, 1.2, 2.0, 1.2

Abarath River, Found Turn 56, as of EoT76: 92, 23, 13.8, 0.  City works Marsh -> JFH -> JFH, switching to bananas when presumably taken first EoT71.  City grows to 4 pop EoT76. City is yielding 4.4:food, 6.0, 0, 1.5, 0.9 but gains 2, 0.5 and 0.3 starting on Turn 77.

SE Lake actually has the edge here but invalidates Marshed as a city site.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

My inclination is that settling the spot that takes less builder labor first is better. Both spots are backlines so no advantage either way, and the earlier settle date is good - more science and culture on top of hte production. Just a trickle, but every little bit helps. Save the worker-heavy cities for post-Ancestral Hall completion.

Are you sending two archers north to deal with the scout, or...? I'm wondering if that's the best use of available units. I'd be inclined either to concentrate everything on the decisive front (that scout won't be able to do much beyond pillage, 1 archer can see him off) or to spread your archers to finally scout east. If we're on the 3-person continent (as seems likely) there's probably a city-state or two to the east, plus our other neighbor, probably a fair distance away since he hasn't scouted us yet. Sending two archers where they can neither scout nor contribute to the war effort seems, er, suboptimal.

On the tactics front I like the earlier DoW. It's not like it'll be a surprise anyway if pindicator has any brains at all (and he's not stupid).

[suboptimal]

Yeah, I'd declare war next turn if you can kill the scout (north of Mashed.) Redirecting Mashed's settler is fine. Probably time for another builder out of Mashed as well (need the Masonry eureka and there is a diamond tile to mine (at Dauphinoise) plus the wine at the new relocated settling spot.) There are so many good spots to settle. The problem is number of build queues. Not every city has to grow tall so a slow growing helper city (focused on trader(s), builders, not immediately needed military) founded earlier will imo, be more helpful NOW than a better spot settled later. The quicker build queue is that important imo.

The scout would assuredly die - there's nowhere it can go that my archers can't both get to it.  Blue archer could also potshot the southern scout if it hangs around in the area. I was going to hold off on builders until State Workforce completes and then start builders in any and all cities with Ilkum slotted.  Given the timing both new cities would produce builders first as Ilkum would already be slotted when they are founded.  Abarath would follow with a trader for a road to Dauphinoise, North or Marshed would put out a galley but that might get stuck at Nazca's borders.

[suboptimal]

Turn 41

I’m going to take care of what little “mundane” stuff there is and then get on with the war declaration. Open the save to a notification that an archer is eligible for a promotion. This is the archer in the north that killed the barbarian slinger. The spearman has emerged from the camp (as expected) and a scout has appeared in the camp. I’ll get back to here later.

Dauphinoise has completed its second warrior. The city starts a settler and will grow to 4 population next turn. It’s 11 turns to completion but the extra population will cut that down a couple of turns, as will Colonization in two more turns. With the warrior I’ve got two choices – go south as reinforcements or go roughly east to do some defogging. The archers will be making their way over here soon enough so I opt to head south now. Once I see how the Khmer situation is progressing I’ll decide if it hangs back at the river or continues south to join the battle as a latecomer.

Speaking of settlers, I think the previous Marshed vs. North debate can be settled once Bronze Working completes and we see where iron is. That may make a difference to the pinmap as a whole and if one site has iron and the other doesn’t I think that determines where the settler goes. In looking at the map it does appear that Marshed has no valid spots for iron.

Backup warrior and green & yellow archers make their intended movements. The Kabul warrior has crossed the river, getting out of the way. The current situation at Wealth of Nations:




Everything looks like I we needed it to be. The plan remains intact. Therefore, with everything looking “set”…




Back to the northern theater:




The downside here is that the archer waiting for a promotion will earn no XP from shooting the scout while it has a promotion pending. However, I will shoot the scout with that archer first in order to have the kill XP go to the other archer. Now, yes, clever viewers could say “How about you move and promote this turn and then kill the scout next turn?” I could, but if there’s a unit from an unmet city-state in the fog just east of the wines and Pindicator gets the first-meet bonus I’ll be kicking myself. Northern archer moves to the wheat and attacks – this also gets it out of the way of the advancing spearman. Southern archer advances adjacent to the scout and kills it, earning 5XP (getting to 11/15). Next turn I expect to see the spearman advance to the hill where the archer was at the start of the turn. I’ll kill it with the archers (southern one making the fatal blow) and then use one archer (after promotin) to clear the camp while the other crosses the river (unpromoted) and heads east to defog.

At Wealth of Nations the red archer advances and shoots the city for 34 damage (and 5XP). There’s a slinger in the city. Blue archer advances to just behind red archer and waits. Next turn it will move up and attack. Warrior moves to the diamonds NW of the city center. The second slinger is in the area:




The good news here is that Pindicator can’t buy a warrior into the city without moving the slinger out. That would also clog up his ability to manuever as it would block the southern slinger from doing anything (unless he moves to the grassland, in which case it dies next turn). I’ve run some numbers on the warrior’s situation assuming it gets attacked by the slinger in the city. In all cases it appears that the best course of action is to fortify in place. The only case in which I should attack the city with it is if he doesn’t do any of the following:

- attack the warrior with the slinger
- performs no archer upgrades
- does not buy a warrior into the city.

In all of those cases fortifying the warrior in place lets it withstand two attacks, and earn a promotion while the archers whittle down the city’s defenses. If he brings in a warrior next turn I’ll sit tight for a turn, absorb the presumed two attacks and then move out to the geothermal vent to promote-heal. The big problem with a warrior appearing in the city is that only one archer will be “effective” - the other archer’s attacks will be mostly healed by the city each turn.

Pindicator’s warrior is the wild card. At the earliest it could be at the western diamonds in two turns, provided it beelined to WoN without healing. It couldn’t promote-heal as it was already Level 1 so would not have gotten a promotion from clearing the camp. We’ll have to see if/when that unit shows up.

Pindicator did finish his Holy Site at Conquest of Paradise this past turn. TBS also appears to have completed a district (or gained two empire points in the population/building category).