[SPOILER] - Suboptimal finds trees, still seeks forest

[Banzailizard]

I've been busy with school so not really had time to post, mostly just quickly read. If you plan to keep going on with military conquests, you probably want at least one encampment in your build plan for GG points. You'll want to put them in choke-points and strategic places rather than just slapping them down, but it might also be good to get one down early. The Upper Atbarah Valley seems strategically critical since it connects the current core, and potential Khmer of your empire. If the sea it is on is safe enough, or could be made safe with settling the rest of the sea then fine. If there is an enemy on the other side who could get a navy in there, maybe a coastal encampment would be of value. Maybe not settling on the coast could be of value at that point too.

I also have an obligation to ask given your thread title, what are you going to do with the pyramids, and with all these cities? Not saying do not plant them down but what is the plan to win the game? Do you need a theater district? Are you going for a cultural victory or a military one? If a military one then will the production spent on these minor cities even pay off in time? Why not just build more military? Could that production be used elsewhere?

The flurry of questions here do not all need to be answered but I think you and Jester are both builders at heart, so I thought I would interject into your micro for a bit of macro.

[suboptimal]

I've been busy with school so not really had time to post, mostly just quickly read.  If you plan to keep going on with military conquests, you probably want at least one encampment in your build plan for GG points. You'll want to put them in choke-points and strategic places rather than just slapping them down, but it might also be good to get one down early.  The Upper Atbarah Valley seems strategically critical since it connects the current core, and potential Khmer of your empire. If the sea it is on is safe enough, or could be made safe with settling the rest of the sea then fine.  If there is an enemy on the other side who could get a navy in there, maybe a coastal encampment would be of value. Maybe not settling on the coast could be of value at that point too.

I think you mean "Lower Atbarah Valley" (ie the settler coming out from Dauphinoise shortly). I think the area east needs to be defogged just to see how big that area is but I agree that an Encampment there should be a consideration. That's also why I'm thinking to get a galley out before the Campus build.

I also have an obligation to ask given your thread title, what are you going to do with the pyramids, and with all these cities?  Not saying do not plant them down but what is the plan to win the game?  Do you need a theater district?  Are you going for a cultural victory or a military one? If a military one then will the production spent on these minor cities even pay off in time?  Why not just build more military? Could that production be used elsewhere?  

The flurry of questions here do not all need to be answered but I think you and Jester are both builders at heart, so I thought I would interject into your micro for a bit of macro.

Yes, that is well warranted and something that was a concern in the back of my head throughout the conversation as I felt my inner sandbox builder getting excited and that is where I lose the forest.

Short to intermediate term the immediate two settlers, plus any Khmer conquests, are to be used to try to gain a (slight) tech advantage over whoever else may be on this landmass and then attack them with swords and crossbows before they have crossbows themselves. I think once Khmer is out of the way I do need to start mapping out what VC(s) to pursue so that if we do clear our landmass of opponents we have a plan in motion. If we don't clear the landmass but can cripple we're likewise ahead of things.

Regarding longer term and VC's I think all three of the "reasonable" VCs require high science output, so putting down cities with good Campus locations now is worth the effort. I do agree with the concern "at what point is enough enough?", hence my question/comment about Mangus & settler pumping being an SP strat more than an MP one. Culture and science generation are key in all cases, regardless, though I think Theater Squares are less useful as cultural generators and more useful as tourism generators in a Cultural Victory situation.

Military

I think the meta on these dual landmass games is to take control of a landmass and then either outbuild/out-tech/out-civic everyone else to force concession OR get an era ahead and then mount a large combined invasion against a weaker occupant to gain a foothold. We haven't seen the latter occur yet but the former happened in PBEM 11 and we've seen plenty of games where naval supremacy dictated play. Worse comes to worse you try to climb ahead of everyone else and hope you can build & use nukes before the World Congress passes the nonproliferation resolution.

Cultural

A cultural victory requires tourism and that, to some degree, requires faith. Wonder tourism would be insufficient so we'd either have to try to implement the relic strategy (Mont St Michel + suicide apostles), hope there's a city-state with a cultural improvement (for Flight tourism) or get to the point where we can start spamming seaside resorts. One back-door approach here would be to plant a couple of desert Theater Squares and spam Nubian pyramids around them. We'd be looking at Holy Sites and/or Theater Squares. Getting great writers/musicians/artists will be a bit difficult with ARchduke's Lavras.

Space

Barring nukes this would be a high-science, high-production approach. We'd need both scientists and engineers to be fast about it, only scientists to be slow about it.

I don't see religion being a possible VC with Russia in the game. We'd be more interested in stopping it.

[CFCJesterFool]

I will admit I like to build but I actually go total conquest most games (except city states if the AI leaves them alive.) Honestly, I open encampment most of the time. However, you need science and culture to win. No way you win against human players if you don't build cities and districts. Gathering Storm also has the consideration of loyalty pressure so it does no good to attack a developed player if you don't have your own cities nearby. So it is not like you can just send an army across the map unless you plan on razing cities.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Oh, good, a high-level strategy conference with all of sub's Joint Chiefs. Let me try to address points in a random order:

Grand strategy:

I think the high level goal remains the same: win the continent via conquest, then use the lead in land to out-expand and then out-tech the competition. Establish control of the seas and blockade the other continent into submission. Generally, whoever wins control of the sea first wins the game (PBEM11, TBS in PBEM13). If we have a science lead, we don't need to worry about space - we can hit a timing attack with battleships or infantry or something and smash our opponents by invading from the sea and razing their cities. For cross-continent attacks I'd go with raze instead of capture so you don't have to bother with defense. Just put cities near the coast to the torch and then pull back to the water.

Mid-term strategy: Obviously, the army needs to stay active once Khmer is taken (note to all: don't overlook Khmer. Pin could stall us if he keeps pumping units). I think east is the best direction to go. What I'd do is spread the archers wide and scout east with them, covering as much ground between them as you can, until you find either a city-state or our final mystery neighbor. Then concentrate there and keeping conquering until we run out of steam. The warriors (hopefully swords by that point) and battering ram follow along while the potatoes clear the way.

Kabul might be a viable target and should definitely be on the list.

If our neighbor gets swords and horses (horses more dangerous) to stop us, then we take a CS, turtle up there for a few turns, and tech to Machinery. Then our swarm of promoted Xbows leads the way - I think that's better than a Knight timing attack since it makes use of our existing advantages in ranged units, and Xbows thrash classical units just as our potatoes demolish ancient era units. With Khmer and our lands in hand, plus this settler wave, we should be able to outproduce whoever it is. Tech path should get Machinery ready to go when we need it, though obviously we'd like to pump out as many cheap archers as possibel before upgrading.

At home, I favor a round of expansion and district building. The Pyramids make sense since builder labor is so precious, but I have to question Petra. The boosted food and production is certainly nice, but it's hundreds of hammers! What timeline will Petra pay off in? Could we get a quicker RoI by building hundreds of hammers worth of military units instead?

Finally, the front: No news there, but I'd take the city, maybe scout a bit with fresh archers while the main army heals up. With the movement and the range advantage warriors are more or less useless against you. Just be cautious and take few risks until the whole army is ready to go, then switch to being aggressive and bold. It's worth taking a few losses if it means the capital falls a few turns earlier, since that will effectively eliminate Khmer (Res Publica doesn't have the production to stop us - I also doubt Pin is kindly finishing the Holy Site there for us, more likely he's knocking out more warriors and slingers).

[CFCJesterFool]

Petra would mainly be for the Lolz. I wouldn't build it unless everything else is in hand (hence the "if you want" comment.) The great thing about a large number of cities is invariably you end up with idle build queues. After your cities get the districts they need and all the military is built, you still have to queue up builds. Projects are always an option of course but part of the fun is grabbing World Wonders to have really good cities (and beautiful tile yields.)

[suboptimal]

I think what I'll do this week is roll some ideas around in my head for a post (or series of posts) attempting to find the forest. Probably one post for intermediate goals objectives (say, post Khmer to Turn 100) and then two for longer term goals (victory conditions or attempting to force a concession). I might wind up spending part of the time talking out of my ass but, well, sometimes unicorn will show up and life is grand. That series will likely drop late Sunday or sometime Monday. In the meantime, here's my plan of attack for CoP provided Turn 48 goes as planned and we take Wealth of Nations next turn:


Battle Plan – Conquest of Conquest of Paradise




The green archer will move SW for two turns. The second move on Turn 49 will allow the archer to move and then shoot at any target of opportunity within range and vision. Provided there are no such targets it will move SE on Turn 50 and shoot either units or the city, likewise on Turn 51. The yellow archer will join the green archer, reaching the forest NW of the Holy site on Turn 51. It, too, will do a move-and-shoot at whatever targets are around, units before city. Red archer also reaches its firing position on Turn 51 but cannot shoot until Turn 52. Blue archer just moves straight SW for five turns and can join the fray on Turn 53.

The warrior will move W out of the city to allow the archers to pass through. On Turn 49 it will promote-heal and then make its way SE to the hill next to the city. If all goes well and there are no units to have to kill the capital could fall as early as Turn 53. The following warrior will garrison Wealth of Nations once the blue archer has passed through. The red archer will garrison Conquest of Paradise unless it is needed at Res Publica.

If we want to be slightly more cautious then the warrior can move NW out of the city center and the green archer can hold for a turn so it can advance in tandem with yellow archer and have red archer close behind. It does jam things up a little bit. Taking WoN and gaining border visibility may answer some questions about his positioning.

I guess if you had two warriors and a slinger, where would you make your attempt at a stand?

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

It looks like the forested hill northeast of the city is the best ground for defense. You wouldn't want to isolate your warriors on the wrong side of the river against archers, and due north the terrain is too open - you'd slaughter him from those forests as you moved up. So I'd expect a warrior on the PFH and the other either NE of it (killable but at least in the fight) or in reserve behind. The slinger is meat unless it garrisons the city, where I'd hope to upgrade it to an archer and at least make a fight of it.

[suboptimal]

As it turns out there is a warrior there, but not the one you were expecting...

Turn 47

The warrior has been attacked. Taking a quick look, Pindicator has brought up a warrior from the south. More there in a bit. Hamp’atu is now active – that’s the tundra volcano north of Mashed. I’ve also got an archer awaiting a promotion; that’d be the one 2NE of Wealth of Nations. Up north the archers both move one tile east. Nothing of note up there so no screenshots this turn. The backup warrior moves towards WoN and the one at the LARV site moves east to defog the coast a little bit but reveals no new land due to hills blocking the view. We’ll get a screenshot worthy view there next turn. In the south:




The garrison is at 87/200 with a current CS of 11. The warrior SE of the city is -4 due to damage. The full strength archer can’t kill it but would do quite a bit of damage to it but not kill it. How to inflict maximum pain and take the city? Archers NE of the city swap places. That puts the Volley-promoted archer in firing range of the incoming warrior. Unprormoted archer shoots the city for 29 damage and a promotion. Archer to the W of the city shoots the city for 28 damage. Garrison down to 30. Warrior attacks and takes the city and….we meet Alhambram of Australia with a redlined warrior to the south:




You can see his stats in the banner (15 ). On the deal screen he has 44 horses and 1 dye. Based on empire tracking he’s got one district (a Campus), three total cities and 12 populations + buildings. Wonder what Alhambram’s reaction will be?

We can also see Pindicator’s other warrior. That’s good. Getting rid of those units now will speed getting to CoP and hopefully stave off rebellion a bit longer. Promoted archer shoots at the wounded warrior for 49 points of damage. It’s under 20 damage and would die in its next combat.

I keep the city, rename it Au Gratin and start repairing the Monument (6 turns). I also have to move Pingala down here – the city is going to rebel in three turns without him. Pingala increases that to six turns. For reference the loyalty view shows we’re currently losing 8.7 loyalty per turn so the city will go free EoT53 unless we can take Conquest of Paradise in 6 turns. With Pindicator’s warriors in the way (and Alhambram possibly attempting to run interference) that’s no longer likely.

I expect that we won’t be able to Au Gratin long enough to take CoP unless the +5 for garrisons kicks in during the interturn. Limitanei buys us one turn so that’s not a viable option when State Workforce completes. The only way to deal with the loyalty situation is to plow forward and take Conquest of Paradise. If that city falls then Pindicator’s largest source of loyalty goes away and the loyalty from the palace is displaced further away. The upside of having to retake the city is that it’d be against the AI, not Pindicator, and our spud guns might get to level 3 in the process.

My plan here is to continue the advance towards Conquest of Paradise and get all of the units through to the southern half of the city’s territory over the next 5 turns. That’s just enough time to get the northern-most archer through the territory, or at least far enough south where it would displace south when the city goes free.

As far as Pindicator’s warriors are concerned I don’t (think) have much to worry about. The redlined one is dead if it stays there (shot from archers north of the city center) or dead if it attacks. The other one can attack the western archer – it’d suffer more damage than it would take as the archer currently has a defensive melee CS of 23. It’d take 28 points of damage on the attack (assuming the redline suicides) and then eat 40 from a ranged attack. The warrior would die the following turn, either from its desperation melee attack or the ranged attack that follows. That archer would then move out of the city territory to the SW and promote-heal. The other archers can just file south, taking available promotions next turn since they’ll all have spare movement and then continuing southwest from there.

[suboptimal]

I took a second look at the EoT save to look at one or two things I didn't check in my slightly hurried state this morning. The two cities on the trade screen for Alhambram are both at 4 population, one has stone and the other has bananas. That leaves his capital at 3 population + the palace, or two population if one of his cities has a monument. He has met no other civs. On that basis I am assuming that we're it and Archduke, Kaiser, Cornflakes and TBS are on the other land mass. Based on the latest milpower rankings there are two possible scenarios for "neighbors":

1) Archduke & TBS are next to each other and are building military to stalemate or fight for supremacy, leaving Kaiser and Cornflakes on the other side in peaceful exploration, at least until legions.
2) One of Archduke & TBS is presently eating Cornflakes for breakfast and the other is building up to either invade Kaiser or defend/strike against the other military power.

[suboptimal]

Turn 48

Notifications come up, Alhambram has denouced us. It’s too early to be getting a casus belli off that, isn’t it?. Check Pindicator’s military power, that’s at 93, up from last turn’s 70. Neither city is garrisoned, but with the loss of a warrior he must have built two. Go down to Au Gratin and check the loyalty situation. The loyalty decrease has slowed to -5.7, rebellion is now in 8 turns. I also notice that the city has gained the bonuses for positive amenities...so, it’s in rebellion but it’s a happy one. . However, that’s what also reduced the loyalty penalty.

I’ll have to see where it stands after State Workforce comes in but it might actually be worth taking Limitanei...the numbers say it’d take another 9 turns after slotting the policy for the city to rebel. When the monument completes in 5 more that will take the penalty down to -2.7, which gets me another 7 turns after completion. So, in theory, I should be able to prevent rebellion for….14 turns if I slot Limitanei in two turns. We’d be founding a nearby city in that time which could negate the loyalty penalty altogether. Regardless, that might be enough time to take Conquest of Paradise, even in the face of stiff resistance.

Up north the archers continue east and I’ve found lots of diamonds...and a city.




Fog-gazing the area SE of the mountain shows orange borders. The diamonds are third ring so it might be a consideration to build some units out of Dauphinoise (it’s closer), take the city-state and then park a settler in the flood plains at the river mouth to claim the diamonds. Definitely a tree, have to see if it fits in the forest.

In the middle of it all warrior #3 tops a coastal hill.




More coast all the way around.

Time for the main event. Pindicator has pulled back his troops.





Warrior clears out of the city to the NW, will promote next turn. First archer moves in and promotes, taking the Arrow Storm promotion (+7 ranged strength vs. land & naval units). The unit is fully healed. In honor of it reaching level 2 I click the feather. May I introduce you to



Archers to the NE each advance one tile, with the middle one taking Volley.

Internationally there’s been quite a shift in military power rankings and I don’t understand them at all. I’m in the lead at 215. Pindicator is second at 93. It then goes Archduke, TBS, Alhambram (78), Cornflakes and Kaiser. Looks like we may be the only ones with any significant military. Alhambram has completed a Government Plaza in Hobart and his second settled city has lost a population. He also earned six era points last turn and is suzerain of Kabul.

Question – we can get an envoy at Kabul for getting the Astrology eureka and we know where to go to do that. I could do that in three turns with the warrior up at the LARV coast. Is it worth doing that now for the unit bonus, given that the next builds out of both currently established cities are granaries?

Regarding advancing the archers I will move Maris Piper SW from the city next turn to keep the archer train running. The question is what to do on Turn 51? Send both archers southwest, knowing that I could retreat the western one if it comes under attack? Send only the western one southwest to see what’s there? Remember, there may be a promoted warrior in that direction and that’s the one I’m actually worried about.

Another question, unorthodox but perhaps not unreasonable: Would it be worth buying one of the tiles that the two opponents’ warriors are standing on? It’d be 65 which is 5 turns of income at current yields. The Khmer tile would give us visibility to the west and northwestern part of CoP’s territory, as well as what might be lurking just west of the wounded warrior. The Australian tile would displace Alhambram to the east, giving us a clear(er) corridor to move directly but slowly on CoP while knowing what might be coming from the west. Purchasing either tile would cut off Alhambram from scouting in this direction or interfering with unit movements (unless he declares, in which case the warrior dies). I guess the thrust of the question is “how much of an advantage would that visibility be and how much is it worth, if any?”