I've run the numbers and the settler is going to Marshed. Transit time is 7 turns, settlement would be on Turn 59. The differences in city growth and relative payback are too great to not go to Marshed given the recent developments there. For comparison, unimproved yields at Marshed vs NE after 20 turns are as follows. I'm including 2 scenarios at each location.
NE, settle SE of Wines: Found Turn 57. EoT77: 3 population (growth to 4 is > 10 turns out), 143 19 11.4 21
NE, settle SW of Wines (puts Iron 2nd ring): Found Turn 56: EoT76: 3 population (growth to 4 is > 10 turns out), 143 19 11.4 21
Marshed, as-is: Found Turn 59. EoT79: 4 population, 56 24.5 14.7 10
Marshed, buy 34 plains upon settling: Found Turn 59. Eot79: 4 population (5 pop EoT83) 132 26 15.6 5
The no-buy situation is "aggravated" by the fact that the city will likely grab salt -> sheep -> 34 plains and would have to work an open plains (or a coast) if the jungle to the SW is paved over. Buying that tile allows the city to get out a builder and half a Campus (or all of a Campus and most of a builder) over the first 20 turns. With Urban Planning running both the district and the builder would be completed. In that time the builder could mine or farm the 7-yield tile, mine or farm the 31 tile and mine the salt (+1+2).
Note that I fully expect that volcano to erupt again, though hopefully not as forcefully as the megacolossal eruption it just did -- those are supposed to be rare events. It also seems that the tile NW of the volcano will be the main beneficiary of any future eruptions if my "disasters repeat" theory holds any water.
NE, settle SE of Wines: Found Turn 57. EoT77: 3 population (growth to 4 is > 10 turns out), 143 19 11.4 21
NE, settle SW of Wines (puts Iron 2nd ring): Found Turn 56: EoT76: 3 population (growth to 4 is > 10 turns out), 143 19 11.4 21
Marshed, as-is: Found Turn 59. EoT79: 4 population, 56 24.5 14.7 10
Marshed, buy 34 plains upon settling: Found Turn 59. Eot79: 4 population (5 pop EoT83) 132 26 15.6 5
The no-buy situation is "aggravated" by the fact that the city will likely grab salt -> sheep -> 34 plains and would have to work an open plains (or a coast) if the jungle to the SW is paved over. Buying that tile allows the city to get out a builder and half a Campus (or all of a Campus and most of a builder) over the first 20 turns. With Urban Planning running both the district and the builder would be completed. In that time the builder could mine or farm the 7-yield tile, mine or farm the 31 tile and mine the salt (+1+2).
Note that I fully expect that volcano to erupt again, though hopefully not as forcefully as the megacolossal eruption it just did -- those are supposed to be rare events. It also seems that the tile NW of the volcano will be the main beneficiary of any future eruptions if my "disasters repeat" theory holds any water.
Sending units to their death since 2017.
Don't do what I did: PBEM 3 - Arabia , PBEM 6 - Australia This worked well enough: PBEM 10 - Aztecs Gamus Interruptus: PBEM 14 - Indonesia
Gathering Storm Meanderings: PBEM 15 - Gorgo You Say Pítati, I Say Potato: PBEM 17 - Nubia The Last of the Summer Wine: PBEM 18 - Eleanor/England
Rhymin' Simon: PBEM 20 - Indonesia (Team w/ China)
Don't do what I did: PBEM 3 - Arabia , PBEM 6 - Australia This worked well enough: PBEM 10 - Aztecs Gamus Interruptus: PBEM 14 - Indonesia
Gathering Storm Meanderings: PBEM 15 - Gorgo You Say Pítati, I Say Potato: PBEM 17 - Nubia The Last of the Summer Wine: PBEM 18 - Eleanor/England
Rhymin' Simon: PBEM 20 - Indonesia (Team w/ China)