American Politics Discussion Thread

[GeneralKilCavalry]

I call Biden the nominee unless Bloomberg is an idiot and fails to drop.  For my Senate ratings VP is now Lean D (Biden is strong because he'll mercilessly ignore his left flank knowing that they will be forced to vote against Trump. He's not that much stronger because he won by bribing other moderates out of his lane but it's enough to bump it up.) AZ, the only state I'm was on the fence on, goes to Lean D. Biden being President-elect is bad news for DEMs in GA-S so it goes to Likely R. Overall rating is Tilt R. Bullock might declare though (only plausible candidate who might declare, might think he could win MT now). If that happens MT is Lean R and Senate rating is Tilt D.

Edit: If Sanders wins because Bloomberg fails to drop and Bullock declares (thinking Biden wins); MT is still Lean R but the Senate is Tilt R.

Many Sanders voters will stay home, or are Obama->Trump voters.

Personally speaking, Biden offers me nothing to incentivize my going to the ballot box. If anything, his election would allow for a complacent continuation of american foreign policy without the necessity of push back from dems.  It will take me a lot of self-convincing and nose pinching to go and vote for Biden.

I fear Biden will win against trump by the slightest of margins, if at all.

Biden brings 0 enthusiasm, his ground game is absolutely pathetic, even when compared to Hillary's in 2016.

He is prone to gaffes and seems senile at the worst of times. Trump has ammunition aplenty with the Ukraine stuff to just throw over and over again at Biden.

Biden can most likely regain PA and MI, but there is little chance of him winning Wisconsin, Florida, Ohio. This scenario could actually lead to an electoral tie (269-269). 
NC could be a potential flip due to demographic shifts. Not so sure Arizona is ripe yet.

If the moderates wanted a candidate, they should've gone for Klobuchar or Buttigeg, but it seems they were terminally incapable of exciting more than a few thousand minority voters due to their records.

[MJW (ya that one)]

moderates>progressives . For every extra voter Sanders wins Biden would get one more to flip which hurts because one flipper is worth 2 new voters. 2018 election backs me up: Justice Democrats flipped zero districts while the DEMs went D+40. Also a moderate DEM won the az senate race while the progressive got blown out.

GOP wins in a 269 situation. I think Biden wins via eking out a victory in WI and PA; while easily winning MI (Trump's result was inflated because DEMs failed to campign there due to no Senate race).

Tulsi Gabbard won a delegate.

[MJW (ya that one)]

Bloomberg is "reconsidering" so he drops and Biden wins.

[GeneralKilCavalry]

moderates>progressives . For every extra voter Sanders wins Biden would get one more to flip which hurts because one flipper is worth 2 new voters. 2018 election backs me up: Justice Democrats flipped zero districts while the DEMs went D+40. Also a moderate DEM won the az senate race while the progressive got blown out.

GOP wins in a 269 situation. I think Biden wins via eking out a victory in WI and PA; while easily winning MI (Trump's result was inflated because DEMs failed to campign there due to no Senate race).

Tulsi Gabbard won a delegate.

That's a result of refusing to support any left wing candidate with money/support of the party. Also, Biden is flipping PMC (professional-managerial class) Romney-Clinton type voters. He's not gonna get back Obama-Trump voters. The suburbanization of the democratic party means that its full conversion to an "identity politics" party without any economic substance, for how could it betray class interests?

Oh well, we'll see in november, but I do not expect Biden to beat Trump - not that Bernie had much of a chance either, but Biden will be worse off than Clinton, especially with Trump's incumbency advantage.

Nominating moderates, in the long run, is a losing proposition - do you see republicans ever nominating moderates since, what, 1968? And yet they've had unmatched electoral success since then. They've managed to convince voters things like gun rights matter, and then the democrats keep falling for their bait on these issues. Given the support of the democratic party, and not the constant MSNBC/CNN slander-machine against him, Sanders would crush Trump - but these are total pipe dreams now.

Just like late decider, low-information, apathetic voters (who come out of habit) are going biden, these same voters will go trump in the general.

Finally, Sanders' campaign seems to be totally incompetent at using their resources. Knocking on doors and making calls is not a winning strategy. The reason they did so well in Nevada was because of organizing workplaces (which is why they won the union vote in spite of union leadership anti-endorsements). For a "left-wing" candidate, Sanders is campaigning in a way that is not radically different from any of his competitors - he simply has more volunteers to do it for him.

[GeneralKilCavalry]

I think another key point of evidence is that Obama lost over 2k downballot races, lost so many state legislature seats, and left the party bankrupt. Getting another moderate in will lead to more of 2010 and 2016z

[darrelljs]

2016 proved yet again that U.S. Presidential elections are about motivating your base and driving turn out; you can't change people's minds in this day and age. Biden will not motivate his base and he'll lose.

Darrell

[darrelljs]

Also, wonder what the Russians will find when they hack the servers this time ?

Darrell

[T-hawk]

GOP wins in a 269 situation.

No, if there's no electoral majority (tie) then the House tiebreaks, which would be Dem.

[GeneralKilCavalry]

GOP wins in a 269 situation.

No, if there's no electoral majority (tie) then the House tiebreaks, which would be Dem.

Isn't it a bit more complicated than that?

If neither candidate gets a majority of the 538 electoral votes, the election for President is decided in the House of Representatives, with each state delegation having one vote. A majority of states (26) is needed to win. Senators would elect the Vice-President, with each Senator having a vote. A majority of Senators (51) is needed to win.

It's state delegations, so that means it's like 19-31, Trump would win.

[T-hawk]

Ah, TIL, thanks for the info.