[Spoilers] Lazteuq and RefSteel's PB51 Adventure

[Lazteuq]

T74:

I feel like we're going to be crashing the economy pretty hard - to the point where I'm even wondering if we should settle the first GS in the capital, and push for a second GS for the Academy. (Actually if we had done more careful planning far enough in advance, we could have set up to tech other things and leave Math for a bulb at around the same time; right now, the GS would only bulb Alphabet, which wouldn't really help us.) Hopefully though, with Fishing, the gold, and more cottages, we'll be able to make it work to just build an academy as planned and use the next GS for a hopefully-well-timed golden age.

Yeah bulbing math would have been great, then we could have learned fishing-sailing-masonry in the meantime. Good thing this is a greens game, so France can't be the only civ with shortsighted execution.
I would definitely prefer to use a second GS for golden age, hopefully around when we get Construction(which might be about the same time as we get attacked)
Now I'm thinking we definitely need fishing, but can we afford to delay Sailing and go Fishing-Masonry-Construction? 

Military: Soon we will have 3 spears to deal with Immortals. If Giraflorens really wanted to, I'm sure they could burn through a few spears with brute force, but Gira's power graph is flat. Meanwhile, Superdeath's power graph is definitely not flat, so I think more axes is the way to go.

Given our economy, we may not be able to get there in time, so we may need another solution.

Would that solution just be axe spam? I don't see horses being worth it, because horseback riding+archery is a lot of beakers as well, almost as much as catapults.

I just realized city 7 should really be moved 1NE (across the peak from Enchilada's cow) to avoid wasting a floodplain.

I dont understand-It looks to me like all floodplains are in at least one city's fat cross in either case.
I like your 3B-2B-4B idea, because 3A and 4A would be pretty aggressive plants relative to superdeath, and I don't see enough benefit in the land they claim.

4B will still be an obvious point for Superdeath to attack, I suppose if we wanted to be completely non-confrontational, we could settle 6 and 7, then wait to see how Superdeath settles. I don't want to play that passively though.

-Enchilada is working on a Barracks, and then I'm not sure what to do: Workers or Axes, and whip or slow? If there is an academy, it seems best to work cottages instead of whip...
-Quesadilla is also working on a barracks. GS in 2 turns, then I think we need to take a break on the scientists so it can grow rapidly.
-Chile Relleno leaves anarchy next turn, will take cow from Carne Asada. Carne Asada grows to size4 in 2t, I'm planning to just crank out more axes.
-Salsa is working the gold at size3, which means it grows very slowly. That's unfortunate, but I don't think we can pass on 7 commerce. Salsa is working on a library, but I wonder if we should change that to a axeman or barracks? Salsa can't afford to run scientists any time soon, so a library is only good for the +25%beakers.

[RefSteel]

Yeah bulbing math would have been great, then we could have learned fishing-sailing-masonry in the meantime. Good thing this is a greens game, so France can't be the only civ with shortsighted execution.

Definitely agreed! We may not be up with the game leaders (yet?) but I think we're still above the average - especially when you take into account the fact that one player's been eliminated already and doesn't appear in the demos at all!

Now I'm thinking we definitely need fishing, but can we afford to delay Sailing and go Fishing-Masonry-Construction?

Well, Sailing may give us more options for foreign trade, allows lighthouses to more-productively work lake and coast tiles, and allows us to settle an island city for +1 commerce and +1 happiness (from the fur) in every city that lacks a foreign trade route. With the current state of our economy, I suspect it will pay back its beaker cost before we can reach Construction. And if we try to tech Construction (or even HBR+Archery, I agree) before we rescue our economy, I think we'll either lose quickly (eaten by Praets before we get there) or lose slowly (falling behind by an era or more).

Would that solution just be axe spam? I don't see horses being worth it, because horseback riding+archery is a lot of beakers as well, almost as much as catapults.

Some combination of Enough Axes for Deterrence with AI Diplomacy, I think. An offer of Open Borders would help at least reveal his intentions and let us send units like the Scout to see where and if and when forces are building up. (Note he might even have Ironworking already!) Getting a trade route (via Sailing or a roads + in-culture rivers connection) would let us offer something like a Rice for Rice trade to indicate and/or ask about peaceful intentions while providing benefits to each other via trade routes, and the fact of rising power, whatever it consists of, might encourage him to point his armies another way. It would also help to chop forests like the one 1SE of Chile Relleno so he doesn't have good defensive tiles from which to attack. Planting 4B instead of 4A, regardless of what we do with 2 and 3, might also help diplomatically and/or geographically once its three first-ring flatland forests are chopped.

Ultimately, he's Aggressive Rome. If he wants to ruin our game, he can. It will probably ruin his as well if his pick didn't do that already, but that's never stopped superdeath from making the same type of mistake in any previous game. I think our best hope is to establish a stable border and good relations - if we can. If he feels like we're a good neighbor and not a good target (for various reasons) he can be a good neighbor too, and we can both end up doing better through cooperation, even in an AI-diplo-only game. It's just difficult to set that up, especially cut off at least half of his chances of making that work with anyone as soon as he picked his civ.

I dont understand-It looks to me like all floodplains are in at least one city's fat cross in either case.

The floodplain I'm talking about is 3E-1N of Enchilada, 3S of Quesadilla, and 3W-1S of Tortilla (and would be 3N of the original 7, but 2N-1W of 7A or 1N of 7B). It's deceptive because it's already in our culture in spite of being in no BFC yet because of the capital's 3rd ring borders.

I suppose if we wanted to be completely non-confrontational, we could settle 6 and 7, then wait to see how Superdeath settles. I don't want to play that passively though.

If we're not settling 4 and 6, I'd want to delay 6 rather than 4: As you've said before, it feels safer to delay a settlement on the Gira border than on the superdeath side, and 6 will have the highest distance maintenance cost of any city we have marked except for 5. This is not a gigantic difference, but it can make a few coins of difference for each city:

Distance maintenance costs for the various city sites; note this is in addition to the "number of cities" maintenance costs, which goes up for each city with every new city we plant. If I understand it correctly, there's a Baseline distance maintenance cost that depends on map dimensions, difficulty level, and city size, and the baseline is multiplied by the tile-distance to the city:

2A = Baseline x 4
2B = Baseline x 4
3A = Baseline x 8
3B = Baseline x 5
4A = Baseline x 5
4B = Baseline x 6
5 = Baseline x 8
6 = Baseline x 8
7 (original) = Baseline x 4
7A = Baseline x 4
7B = Baseline x 3
Island City for Furs = Baseline x 8 to Baseline x 10, depending on its location.

For reference, the distance maintenance for Quesadilla, Carne Asada, and Salsa should each be Baseline x 5, Tortilla's should be Baseline x 7, and Chile Relleno will be Baseline x 9 once it comes out of resistance. Since city size is part of the calculation, they e.g. Quesadilla and Salsa won't have the same Distance Maintenance while they're at different sizes though.

-Enchilada is working on a Barracks, and then I'm not sure what to do: Workers or Axes, and whip or slow? If there is an academy, it seems best to work cottages instead of whip...

Yeah, with an Academy, it's probably theoretically best to grow on cottages up to the happy cap while teching, then stagnate on Scientists (whether teching or not, at least until our cottages mature more) without whipping outside of an emergency.

-Quesadilla is also working on a barracks. GS in 2 turns, then I think we need to take a break on the scientists so it can grow rapidly.

In that case, it might be better to grow now (to the happy cap) - working one or more Scientists only when the alternative is an unimproved tile - and save gold on Fishing after Math, since we'll need a bankroll to raise the tech slider and get decent use from the Academy.

-Salsa is working the gold at size3, which means it grows very slowly. That's unfortunate, but I don't think we can pass on 7 commerce. Salsa is working on a library, but I wonder if we should change that to a axeman or barracks? Salsa can't afford to run scientists any time soon, so a library is only good for the +25%beakers.

Yeah - I think I was assuming it would even work the gold at size 2 until the granary finished, and failed to communicate that well. The question of Library vs Axemen is the same as the question of tech path: If we want (and dare) to work for the long term, a library would be good. If we think attack will be imminent unless we can convince superdeath to look elsewhere, we'll have to go with Axes.

Of course, if we don't plan to plant City 6 soon after all, we could even skip Fishing and Sailing, though I don't think that would help. Another advantage of Sailing is that galleys might allow us to try to keep superdeath honest along the coasts, protecting against his Amphi attacks if he has the tech, or threatening our own if he attacks us and doesn't have it. If his power is building now though, there's a real chance he's already building Praets, in which case it might not matter what we tech past Math; Axes to boost our Power, Open Borders for scouting and possible trade routes, and any resource deals we can swing if we do get a trade connection, would be the only things that might help.

[Lazteuq]

Up to T79:
While there are serious concerns, I did found sites 4 and 6, damn the torpedoes. This feels decisive, in the way that it either gave us a glorious land advantage or just sent us on a death spiral.
Anyway, meet Fajita and Ceviche:


There will be a lot of chopping around here, I especially want to get rid of forests around fajita to take away defensive bonuses.

Enchilada now has an academy (maybe a poor choice, but I did it anyway) and was growing out of control. I don't want to make the food surplus go to waste, so I think it is best to 3-pop whip something at size8 and grow back. Unfortunately a settler is the only thing expensive enough and available to build. Unless we 3pop whip a worker immediately. Is that a bad idea? I guess this is why site7 would have been good, it uses some of Enchilada's food surplus.
Quesadilla is about to reach size5, already running 1 scientist, will have another next turn.

Plemo met us by building a city on this island:

I accepted his open borders offer. Ideally we wouldn't do open borders until after getting Sailing, but I didn't want the weirdness of declining the offer, then coming back 5t later with it. Sailing is definitely the plan.
I put espionage on him so we should get Plemo's graphs in 8-9 turns.
Plemo has same number of cities as us, and they are all dutch names.

The power graph increases are not that dramatic actually, I don't think this is a severe war buildup. Probably means he isn't going to do anything to us with axes immediately.

I don't think he has praets yet, I think the low GNP means he is building up gold to rapidly get IW.

Back to the top in land area, but at how much cost? I think we'll know by July if it was worth it.

[RefSteel]

This feels decisive, in the way that it either gave us a glorious land advantage or just sent us on a death spiral.

Cool - then let's see how it goes! The courage to do something like that can be critical to a winning strategy; of course it helps a lot when it's combined with a decent sense for when it's most likely to succeed, and the skill to help guide it to the first result instead of the second!

Enchilada now has an academy (maybe a poor choice, but I did it anyway)

I think it's a good choice as long as we can recover the economy!

I don't want to make the food surplus go to waste, so I think it is best to 3-pop whip something at size8 and grow back. Unfortunately a settler is the only thing expensive enough and available to build.

Hmmm ... this sounds like it already grew to 8 and is unhappy? Either way, a settler isn't a bad build if we can get it onto a boat and thence to an island shortly after Sailing comes in. The improved trade routes from the (first) island city should let it pay for itself nicely. Stagnating on good commerce tiles and Phi scientists with Enchilada's +75% beaker multiplierss isn't bad either though, even if we're turning several food into hammers each turn. If it's worth it for Caviche to work a lake for the 2c while building a workboat and still lacking a granary (when it could borrow Fajita's plains forest hill until it gets a really good tile) then it's definitely worth it for Enchilada to keep working the floodplain cottages at largish sizes, even if it's turning some food into hammers at 1:1. (It should definitely be running two scientists in that case though since it has the Academy - unless that would prevent us from breaking even on gold with the slider at 0%!)

Unless we 3pop whip a worker immediately. Is that a bad idea?

Yes, I'm convinced that would be a bad idea. It gives up a vital point of happiness and several turns of working good tiles in our Academy capital to turn 48 food into 60 hammers. Even if we spent a turn on the Worker and then whipped it normally (for two pop) and turned the excess food into hammers at 1:1 on worker stagnation instead, we'd be taking the same happiness hit to turn those same 48 food into something like 75 hammers! Dry whips (that is, whips without hammers invested) are for dire emergencies only.

I guess this is why site7 would have been good, it uses some of Enchilada's food surplus.

Yeah; it lets us assign the food surplus to whichever city needs it most. Also it can eventually helps make several good cottages are constantly worked by somebody. And of course it's distance maintenance is low. Probably doesn't make sense now though, until we can improve our economy.

To be clear: I'm pretty sure I favor keeping Enchilada's happy cap as high as possible, and working two scientists plus its best tiles (including all three FP cottages) even if it means suffering some food/hammer inefficiency. We need commerce right now, pretty desperately, it seems to me. (If it's already at size 8 and unhappy, that's okay: Angry people don't eat food when building Workers or Settlers!)

I accepted his open borders offer. Ideally we wouldn't do open borders until after getting Sailing, but I didn't want the weirdness of declining the offer, then coming back 5t later with it. Sailing is definitely the plan.

Great! Accepting right away was the definitely the right move to signal friendship, and it looks like we'll have Sailing soon anyway. Let's hope we can get to that fur island before he or anyone else steals it away! (It might help for Quesadilla or Salsa to build a Workboat in the meantime to explore around the northern islands and maybe even meet some other players - the WB can hook up seafood later when it's needed.) Does Plemo have any interesting resources connected?

The power graph increases are not that dramatic actually, I don't think this is a severe war buildup. Probably means he isn't going to do anything to us with axes immediately.

I think you're right. Here's hoping we can have a peaceful border down there!

I don't think he has praets yet, I think the low GNP means he is building up gold to rapidly get IW.

Sounds good. If his economy is in bad straits, he might even be delaying IW to get it under control. Superdeath is unpredictable, but he's not AI Montezuma; when he's thinking clearly, he can recognize the needs of his situation and play accordingly, even when that means playing peacefully.

Back to the top in land area, but at how much cost? I think we'll know by July if it was worth it.

I'm looking forward to finding out how all of it goes!

[Lazteuq]

Hmmm ... this sounds like it already grew to 8 and is unhappy? Either way, a settler isn't a bad build if we can get it onto a boat and thence to an island shortly after Sailing comes in. The improved trade routes from the (first) island city should let it pay for itself nicely. Stagnating on good commerce tiles and Phi scientists with Enchilada's +75% beaker multiplierss isn't bad either though, even if we're turning several food into hammers each turn. If it's worth it for Caviche to work a lake for the 2c while building a workboat and still lacking a granary (when it could borrow Fajita's plains forest hill until it gets a really good tile) then it's definitely worth it for Enchilada to keep working the floodplain cottages at largish sizes, even if it's turning some food into hammers at 1:1. (It should definitely be running two scientists in that case though since it has the Academy - unless that would prevent us from breaking even on gold with the slider at 0%!)

This makes sense. Enchilada is only size7 now, so only 1 angry citizen. Now working 4 cottages and 2 scientists. For the next few turns, it will continue stagnating at low production. Should be another great scientist on T96 I think.

Up to T82:
We get Sailing next turn by running on 100% science.

(these images are from T81 but whatever, nothing interesting happened)
Gira built a 5th city up north. Even though the warrior was past the settler, he got deported to our side of the border. I think we should get open borders with Gira, maybe I'll offer it next turn.



Superdeath's latest city:

Hey wait a minute, that plains hill is looking a little too productive....
And why are there 2 workers on it...?
I think Aggressive Rome just got his iron.

Sounds good. If his economy is in bad straits, he might even be delaying IW to get it under control. Superdeath is unpredictable, but he's not AI Montezuma; when he's thinking clearly, he can recognize the needs of his situation and play accordingly, even when that means playing peacefully.

Well, it looks like I was underestimating his research. Good news is that our new axes and spears are keeping us at power parity.

That iron tile is within striking range, but he might have a second source available.
I was considering trying to cut off access to the iron ASAP, but I don't think we want to get in a war like that right now. Our economy can't handle it, and our front is pretty vulnerable. Aggressive means his units beat ours on average, and I don't think we have enough production advantage to compensate. Besides, I still think Superdeath's unknown southern neighbor is his prime target.

Great! Accepting right away was the definitely the right move to signal friendship, and it looks like we'll have Sailing soon anyway. Let's hope we can get to that fur island before he or anyone else steals it away! (It might help for Quesadilla or Salsa to build a Workboat in the meantime to explore around the northern islands and maybe even meet some other players - the WB can hook up seafood later when it's needed.) Does Plemo have any interesting resources connected?

I like that dual-purpose workboat idea!!
Plemo's screen: We are equal in city numbers. Only interesting thing I see is that he doesn't have horses.

[Lazteuq]

T84:
We have sailing, those coastal trade routes were absolutely worth waiting for: Now income is +16gpt at 0%.
Quesadilla and Enchilada will both be running 2 scientists. I'm setting up Tortilla to whip a library next turn and also run scientists, as well as floodplain cottages of course.
Salsa is making progress on the work boat, probably should start a galley right after.
Masonry will be done T86, that has some value on its own for being able to panic-build walls in border cities. Construction probably about 11 more turns.
If we have construction earlier than normal and Superdeath isn't tying down all of our forces, we might consider attacking Gira. Their military has stayed small and they have few cities. Or it may be better to avoid war of aggression until we have some other advantage.

Edit: We have claimed both marble and stone in the borders. That means we could start efficiently converting hammers into failgold.

[RefSteel]

This makes sense. Enchilada is only size7 now, so only 1 angry citizen. Now working 4 cottages and 2 scientists. For the next few turns, it will continue stagnating at low production. Should be another great scientist on T96 I think.

Oh - so it must still have a point of whip anger then. I definitely wouldn't whip it while that's the case. But also ... I must have expressed the idea more poorly than I thought so late at night. Are you saying it's working a grassland cottage instead of the cow? Giving up four foodhammers per turn (I assume it's building a Worker or Settler to stagnate) is a really steep price to pay for cottage turns. (Even dropping the Rice for a Floodplain cottage is questionable...)

Gira built a 5th city up north. Even though the warrior was past the settler, he got deported to our side of the border. I think we should get open borders with Gira, maybe I'll offer it next turn.

Ah, yes. Teleportation mechanics are a fascinating study, and completely insane. I think I can explain why this happened, and maybe I will at some point for sheer entertainment value, but not now. I do agree with offering OB to Gira and, for that matter, basically everyone.

I think Aggressive Rome just got his iron.

Well spotted! But note the number of copper and horse tiles surrounding our land. I'm pretty sure he has access to more than one iron tile....

I was considering trying to cut off access to the iron ASAP, but I don't think we want to get in a war like that right now.

Very true, for all the reasons you state. Again: If he wants to ruin our game, he'll be able to no matter what we do. If he doesn't, let's try not to encourage him to.

Plemo's screen: We are equal in city numbers. Only interesting thing I see is that he doesn't have horses.

I actually find it interesting that his resources otherwise resemble ours so closely (with a couple of seafood additions in place of the rice; he presumably had a coastal capital). Also, looking over PBSpy gave me the impression that Plemo may have played the strongest opening of anyone in this game. Could be another shark in the water....

We have sailing, those coastal trade routes were absolutely worth waiting for: Now income is +16gpt at 0%.

Wow ... that seems like a big jump! If all our cities are getting routes worth at least 2c, the island city ... is probably still worth it to claim furs and establish ourselves there, and as insurance against losing routes and in preparation for currency, but becomes less urgent economically.

Masonry will be done T86, that has some value on its own for being able to panic-build walls in border cities. Construction probably about 11 more turns.

I think if we go Construction before Currency, we're probably doomed in the long run. It's true that if we go Currency before Construction, we might be doomed in the short run, but I still believe that in that case we'd be doomed anyway. Masonry itself may well be worthwhile though, because...

We have claimed both marble and stone in the borders. That means we could start efficiently converting hammers into failgold.

This is an excellent point if the Pyramids haven't fallen yet by the time we connect stone; given our current techs, I'm not sure what other Wonders we could use for failgold though. For that matter, I don't even know which wonders and religions have already been built, apart from Stonehenge....

Unrelated:

My schedule is becoming severely and unpredictably impacted ahead; my replies may become briefer and less frequent (or, I suppose, the opposite; that's the way unpredictability goes - but it's not what I'm expecting) - but I'll continue following along and rooting for you, and comment when and as I can!

[Lazteuq]

T85-86

I think if we go Construction before Currency, we're probably doomed in the long run. It's true that if we go Currency before Construction, we might be doomed in the short run, but I still believe that in that case we'd be doomed anyway. Masonry itself may well be worthwhile though, because...

Considering this, and the fact that Superdeath's power graph has leveled off, I started on Currency. Looks like we can have it t96.

Enchilada is working on a settler to grab that fur. Salsa will make the galley, probably aided by a chop, because raising the happy cap ASAP would really help right now.
Next GS will come out of Enchilada on T96. I'm feeling like a golden age is probably best for him.
Tortilla is size3 after whipping a library- I didn't pick CRE/PHI for nothing!
Fun Fact: Our GS was the first great person of the game. This turn, 2 prophets were born(hindu and buddhist I guess), and a scientist was born somewhere else.

Plemo just executed something impressive: in the last few turns, he founded a bunch of cities(4 I think) and then finished the hanging gardens. That definitely explains the huge score increase. I see immediate competition over those islands. That sudden cityspam can't be good for his economy though. We'll have graphs on him soon. He is FIN though, so maybe it is more manageable with all those coastal cities. Also, I think his military must be tiny, with so many hammers recently going into galleys and settlers.

We met El Grillo's workboat travelling up the outer coast past Superdeath. I accepted open border offer.
El Grillo managed to get Oracle, despite being busy earlier executing Amicalola.
El Grillo also has a chariot in Giraflorens territory, so they have managed to explore around the whole donut, reaching both our borders. That means we still don't really know where El Grillo's land is, but my best guess is directly opposite the donut from us.
El Grillo has similar resources to us, and equal city numbers. And has CURRENCY! First neighbor to get it.

Unless I just don't know how to use the diplo interface, it looks like Gira declined the open borders offer. Not sure why... Maybe they already have all the trade routes they could want and see no point?

Pretty sure that's Plemo at #1 land. EDIT: Actually not so sure after all.
The 120k soldiers is NOT superdeath, I don't know who it might be.

All wonders are still available other than Stonehenge, Oracle, and Hanging Gardens. I started a stone quarry right away, and we could get Pyramids started soon. Not sure what's the best city to use. Carne Asada has the best continuous hammers, but it only has 2 forests left and I want to keep its Barracks building units. Salsa and Enchilada are both busy setting up for the island city, so wouldn't be able to start right away.
Here's a wild idea: We could start on the 'mids in Fajita, which has tons of forest to chop and plenty of hills. Aside from the granary, there isn't anything important for Fajita to build, so the opportunity cost seems low. Of course one downside is if Superdeath eats the city, we would lose the failgold.

[RefSteel]

Maybe they already have all the trade routes they could want and see no point?

If they don't have Sailing yet, they wouldn't benefit from the trade routes. Or they might not want us (their neighbor) to be able to scout their territory if they feel weak.

All wonders are still available other than Stonehenge, Oracle, and Hanging Gardens. I started a stone quarry right away, and we could get Pyramids started soon. Not sure what's the best city to use. Carne Asada has the best continuous hammers, but it only has 2 forests left and I want to keep its Barracks building units. Salsa and Enchilada are both busy setting up for the island city, so wouldn't be able to start right away.
Here's a wild idea: We could start on the 'mids in Fajita, which has tons of forest to chop and plenty of hills. Aside from the granary, there isn't anything important for Fajita to build, so the opportunity cost seems low. Of course one downside is if Superdeath eats the city, we would lose the failgold.

Tortilla had 7 forests to chop (some of them shared; you can choose which city gets the hammers though from the city screen; let me know if you're not sure how...) when we founded it. If it still has all or most of those and we can get workers there, it might be a good choice, about as far from superdeath as our cities get.

No time for further thoughts right now - sorry! I hope you're having a great day/night/whatever-time-it-may-be-where-you-are!

[Lazteuq]

T87: not much happening
We met MJMD's scout on the inner coast travelling through Superdeath's land.

If they don't have Sailing yet, they wouldn't benefit from the trade routes. Or they might not want us (their neighbor) to be able to scout their territory if they feel weak.

That's fair enough. I sent Superdeath an open borders offer.
Superdeath's power is flat again this turn.
I think once we get currency, we might be able to settle a few more coastal sites.

Question for anyone lurking: Are Harbors usually worth building? I almost never build them in singleplayer, but this pitboss has made me reconsider the value of trade routes.

Long Term Idea Assuming Superdeath Doesn't Attack: While we do have a lot of land, I'm sure it's not enough to win with. Conquest will be necessary at some point. And if Gira continues to have a small military.....