[Spoilers] Woden takes on the World (PBEM18)

[Woden]

Turn 41
Nothing unexpected when opening the save. Early Empire finishes and I start Political Philosophy (due in 8 turns). I swap out Urban Planning for Ilkum since I will build a few builders at Gondor before a Cothon and the Ancestral Hall. I hook up the whales and get the boost to Celestial Navigation, now at 5 turns to completion. That will drop a turn next turn when Pingala is established. Government Plaza finishes, completing Bologna's quest and giving me a envoy and +2. My science rate is now equal to Brazil's but there may be some rounding differences. Next turn, I will get another jump in science (Pingala establishes). I promote Pingala with researcher and assign Magnus to Gondor with the 2 governor's titles. The next 2 titles will go into Magnus. First (from AH), I will take Provision and not lose a population when building settlers. Second (at Defensive Tactics), I will Surplus Logistics to add +2 to my trader routes. All my trader routes will go to Gondor. Right now they are 2/2 Add a Cothon for +1, an Industrial Zone (+1), and Surplus Logistics (+2), and they will be 4/4 trade routes. Good enough to super charge a new city's development. I could also add an encampment at size 10 for another +1 if I want. I am also thinking about the Hanging Gardens at Osgiliath a little down the line, for growth and Era Points. My Pantheon provides +10% growth, adding in +15% growth from Hanging Gardens and we can get some fast growing cities. It will work well with fast expansion. Right now, my plan is to get the first ring around my capital filled in with 4 settlers. Then, research towards Feudalism and the +2 changes to builders will the capital does some infrastructure and military builds, then do a second wave of settlers to fill out a second ring of cities and the west coast. 

As for unit movements, all units move in their respective directions. The new warrior from Osgiliath moves towards the new barb camp. Osgiliath starts another warrior and Gondor resumes the Builder. Here is want it looks like at the end of turn...



Internationally, Kaiser sees a 7 point jump in score. He finished a civic and gain 5 era points. Best bet is finishing Political Philosophy and getting the first 1st tier government. I did notice Brazil's military power dropped, so he must be fighting some barbs. 

Next big turn will be when Political Philosophy finishes. I should have enough warriors to start an attack on La Venta by then. Otherwise, it will be scouting with units and defogging more of the map.

[NobleZarkon]

Good progress and interesting to see your medium term plans.

Hanging Gardens good synergy with your Pantheon.

[Woden]

Turn 42
Pingala has established in Oliliagath, bringing my science to 13.7. Units move in their respective directions, not finding much. Here is what it looks like at the end of the turn...




I looked to see if Ichabod had any horses or iron hooked up yet and didn't see any but did notice he has whales hooked up, so that answers the rejection of the deal a few turns ago. He also finished a civic and earned 3 era points (close barb camp?). Kaiser also finsihed a civic, CMF grew and gained a couple of era points, and suboptimal also grew a pop. Haven't noticed any population decreases, so either they are hiding it or focusing on districts right now. I expect some new cities soon.

Good progress and interesting to see your medium term plans.

I had a little time tonight, so here you go...
Midterm Plan

Expansion
As soon as I chop out the Ancestral Hall, I am going to have Gondor build 4 settlers and Osiliagath build 1. First settler, out of Gondor, will go to Moria location. Second, out of Osgiliath, will go to Rohan location. Third will go to Rivendell and fifth will go to Erebor. For the fifth, ideally it will go northeast of Gondor, north of the sea of Galilee , unless it is complete crap. Then it will go west to either seal the pass by Fez or on the coast to get a city with a Cothon established over there.

city builds
Moria will immediately start on a Cothon, walls, and a lighthouse. Rohan will buy its second ring horses and start a monument then work on walls, aqueduct, industrial zone, and maybe an encampment. Rivendell will start a monument while the builder moves to chop the jungle on the campus location and then work on the +6 campus. They will also get an encampment on the desert hill in between the 3 mountains to lock the eastern approach. Erebor will start a monument and then work on an aqueduct and industrial zone when available. As for the fifth city, I want to find a decent location with a spot for a Cothon.

Techs/Research
As I have stated before, after Celestial Navigation, I want to bring everything current available down to 1-turn left and then put research into Shipbuilding as I wait for the Era to end. I also want to hold off on too many eurekas until I can get the +10% to boosts for techs Golden Age dedication. That way I can get a lot of techs with the 20% discount for ancient era stuff and overflow my way to Apprenticeship. At turn 60, I should be able to 1-turn Pottery, Irrigation, Writing, Archery, Masonry, Bronze Working, Wheel, Iron Working, Horseback Riding, and Currency. That will be 10 turns and 10 techs plus I will probably be able to finish Ship Building some time in there with the boost, so 11 techs in 10 turns. After that, ideally I want to finish Engineering and Construction then stay on the top of the tech tree and shoot for Industrialism before cleaning up the bottom of the tech tree. There is a lot of useful stuff on the top, including Caravels, Frigates, Shipyards, Factories, and Universities.

Civics
Once Political Philosophy completes, I will grab Mysticism and Military Tradition until focusing on the top half of the tree until I grab Exploration. It has most everything I need in the immediate future. Military Training for the +30% for harbors and buildings. Naval Tradition for the Harbors adjacency doubling card. Feudalism for teh builder's card. And Mercenaries for cheaper upgrades. I am not going to have a bunch of campuses right away and am going to rely on bonus science from my harbors from Golden Ages to keep relevant in science, so no need to rush the bottom of the tree. Getting Exploration will also let me skip Divine Right and Reformed Church if I want.

War or Peace
I am pretty sure I still have the reputation as a builder and have the issue of always thinking I need one more thing before I can attack but I think PBEM15 showed me that early aggression helped win me that game. I was able to open up large swaths of land to settle and really out expanded my opponents. While it took another 100 turns, that game was really won when I defeated CFCJesterfool. That being said, I don't know if that will work in this game. I have really been struggling with deciding if I need to prepare for war after my initial expansion or continue to improve my civilization and create an industrial powerhouse that could have twice the cities in half the time as my opponents.

I know the benefits of taking out an opponent early but there are also drawbacks. Look at the last PBEM (17), where suboptimal pushed all his chips in trying to take out pindicator and ended up in an endless war that took both of them out of contention. My thoughts are why attack a neighbor unless you run out of decent land to expand into. That is what basically happened in PBEM15. I had 3 good city spots but then CFCJesterfool settled towards me and it looked like I was going to be trapped on my little outcropping of land, so I made the decision to attack. It also helped that I had an awesome unique unit and bonuses with surprise wars. If I didn't attack, I would have been limited in the number of cities I could have founded.

In this game, all I am seeing many reasons not to go to war. The include:
(1) There is lots of room to expand and I have a civilization that can expand quickly.
(2) I have a lot to build to get my civilization rolling, 5 settlers, 2 more trade routes, a bunch of archers, etc. Then I will hit Aqueducts and Industrial Zones and will want to get those up and running. With all the changes to IZs, I don't think we, as a group, have fulling investigated the impacts of them. I mean, I could get some +9 or +10 IZs going that will turn into +18 /+20 with the doubling card. Then add in power plants to double them again and add in the workshop and factories. That would be like +50 to +60 IZs. It doesn't matter that the land is flat as hell, you can get some stuff built with IZs like that. Then, in my case, add the top promotion for Magnus that lets multiple factories apply to the city and you can get another 18-24. Fully promote him with Black Marketeer and you can build endless units, requiring only 15% of the resources. That would be 1-turning Frigates for 3 niter a shot. Getting to this point as fast as possible could lead to being able to quickly build an unstoppable army with long lines of reinforcements.
(3) There is really rough terrain between me and Brazil. Unless there is nice flat and open land in the fog between us, it will take some time to move units down to him. Alternatively, it might be easier to attack Egypt to my east but not sure yet of the terrain. Also, he is leading the game, so not sure what I will face when I might be ready for an attack. There is still some possibility here and need more information.
(4) I don't really want this game to end too early. I would like to see some more later game action with some later era units.
(5) By the time I have my 5 new cities founded and build an army, the next military tech will be on the field and I won't have an advantage. Might be better to expand and improve to get an edge on tech (this is a big one).

I am not saying an early war is out of the picture but there are some compelling arguments against it. I don't want to hung up on a military plan and get bogged down because of it, like suboptimal in PBEM17. The game is still early and events might change my mind. Ichabod could send a pink dot city provoking me into a war. Kaiser could be running a farmers gambit and be easy pickings. Either of them could have an aggressive neighbor and there may be an opportunity to jump in on something else. One of them can start looking at me as a juicy target and start something. I do plan to be flexible but I am thinking the best plan forward for the medium term is to improve and expand and try to gain an edge.

So that is roughly my thoughts/plans so far. Let me know if you agree or if I have a little too much builderitus. An early war would be fun and interesting but I think a Renaissance War might be better with Muskets, Cuirassiers, and Frigates.

[NobleZarkon]

Really interesting read, I'm a builder at heart as well so may not be the best person to advise you in this situation!!

Key to me is an early war needs to give you a decisive advantage or it's not really worth it.  I'm not liking the terrain as you rightly say.

The key thing is this:-

"There is lots of room to expand and I have a civilization that can expand quickly."

Playing to your Civ's strengths seems right to me, different if you were running out of room but you're not so take advantage of being able to generate settlers quicker than the other players then leverage that into a dominant advantage later.

You're also right to be flexible and prepared to change tack quickly if needed.

[Woden]

Hey, remember last turn when I said...

The game is still early and events might change my mind. Ichabod could send a pink dot city provoking me into a war. Kaiser could be running a farmers gambit and be easy pickings. Either of them could have an aggressive neighbor and there may be an opportunity to jump in on something else. One of them can start looking at me as a juicy target and start something.

That was cool. Look what I opened the save to...



Fun stuff! I mean it is equal distance between my capital and his, city center is 8 tiles away from both...

 

I think I have an idea as to what he is planning here. In the near future, I will see a road from his new city leading down to his capital. If he buys the horses tile on the other side of the natural wonder and then the tile by his capital, he will be looking for an early horsemen rush. Interesting though, he did place a Holy Site. He doesn't have his pantheon yet and maybe looking for the Work Ethic as a religious belief. Add the jungle pantheon and he could get some great production. Holy Site is currently +7. That means there is one more jungle tile under the fog. 

Once I get my 3 southern cities placed, I might be able to crush it with loyalty. If I rush a fourth city down by the spice, SW of the Rivendall pin, it might be even better. I have to think how this changes my plan. I am thinking I might need to delay attacking La Venta a few turns and rush the Cothons and a few settlers to start some loyalty pressure. We will see. I need to run some numbers.

Never fails, you sketch out a mid-range strategy and something messes it up the next turn.

[NobleZarkon]

I said you were right to be prepared to be flexible!

Brazil with Sacred Path and Work Ethic would be scary!!

Trying to take the city with loyalty pressure is an interesting idea, not too far a deviation from your plan while scuppering his.

[Woden]

Turn 44
For the time being, I continue with my scouting missions and looking for the Archery boost. My southern warrior moves across the river and defogs a little of Brazil's new city...



Ichabod did bring out his warrior to say hi! Part of me wonders if I should send Ichabod a friend request and expand like crazy over the next 30 turns. But the other part wants the freedom of declaring war when I am ready. The friendship would put a timer on a war for both of us.

As for his new city, I think I am going to delay taking La Venta in order to get Rohan settled ASAP. I will start the settler as soon as Political Philosophy completes. The Cothon should complete that turn as well and I will have the Ancestral Hall complete by the time it is founded. An attack on La Venta around the time I can get a few horses will still work. I am still thinking to expand out to 6 cities but then I am going to build an army and then we will see where the game stands. 

Slinger and warrior pair in the north finds a juicy target for the Archery boost. Slinger fortifies in the woods and warrior moves to a hill. Barb on't be able to attack this turn and I will get first strike. Warrior completes at Osgiliath and heads north to scout around La Venta. They did finally start their Holy Site for a whole +1 adjacency. Probably no better option up there though. Osgiliath starts a trader and will switch to a Cothon next turn when Celestial Navigation completes. 

Internationally, Kaiser gains 2 era points and lost a pop (settler). Suboptimal completes his 4th civic and CMF lost a pop (settler). I am dead last on the science board and will be for a while. The question is, can I go for last to first when I start completing techs?

What do you think about a friendship to get some safe borders for 30 turns? I think I might be able to push a horse raid in about 25 turns (with taking out La Venta right before). The pro would be pushing expansion a little harder, con would be putting a counter on war. I think he would plan for war to, when it expires.

[NobleZarkon]

Hmm, a friendship kind of puts a counter to the war - not sure that's what you want, keep him guessing!

[Woden]

Hmm, a friendship kind of puts a counter to the war - not sure that's what you want, keep him guessing!

After thinking about it a little last night, I 100% agree, but if he comes offering it in the next few turns, I might accept it since it would give me first strike. I will not be offering it and give him first strike.
I also don't know how much he is looking for a war. He hasn't connected any horses yet (he has them 3rd ring at the capital and 3rd ring at his pink dot location from what I can see). He is also building a Holy Site at the city closest to me. If he was looking for an early war, I would expect seeing walls being built. Then again, he may feel safe with me as a neighbor, but I don't know. I will have to keep an eye on him and if a road appears form his capital.

[Woden]

Turn 45
Open the save to gaining an era point for entering the classical age...



I place Cothons in both cities and Osgiliath starts working on theirs. Gondor will finish the builder before starting theirs and both will finish in 4 turns when Political Philosophy finishes. 

Southern warrior continues around the Brazilian city and eastern warrior moves closer to the barb camp. Central warrior moves around La Venta and defogs a little by the city. In the northwest, barb warrior did move up and I hit it with the warrior and slinger. It should counterattack the slinger and then I should be able to kill it next turn. Here is what it looked like at the end of the turn...



Builder is ready to mine the plains hill next turn for a little more production. The city display says 5 turns for the Cothon but I rearranged the tiles a littel to drop it down to 4. I should be able to get complete vision on the Brazilian city in a couple of turns before the warrior will turn east to defog the rest of the area.

Internationally, I am now 3rd in score, well at least before my turn (I gained a pop, a tech, and an era point). Ichabod finished a district (I think), his empire score jumped by 3 and he gained 3 era points. I will need to remember to look for GP points next turn. Best bet is a Holy Site at his capital. If he is going for a religion, it would be the best move. It was not a campus, since his science rate is still lower than mine. Suboptimal lost a point (settler) and CMF stayed the same. 

Here is the current rankings...



I am 3rd in science and culture. Kaiser is 1st in both, Ichabod is 2nd in science and CMF is 2nd in culture. Suboptimal and CMF both only have 5 techs to my 6. I will have to watch for when they finish to see if they have a higher science rate. I have the most military power and some of my units are still unhealthy, which means I probably have the most warriors. I figure I am in the middle of the pack, maybe 2nd best (my science is higher than Brazil right now) now but will start to fall behind because I am not going to finish another tech for the next 15 turns and won't get a settler out for the next 9 turns. But I don't think anybody is going to be set up for as fast an expansion as I will be. My biggest concern right now is remembering to switch techs when they get down to 1 turn.