[SPOILERS] scooter's PB53

[scooter]

Finally, with respect to single warrior escorting settler and moving blindly, that's why the game has a combat log IMHO. Its completely transparent in that scenario to the player that they're gambling their empire on that 4% downside risk. If I bet my house spread across 35 numbers on roulette and the 36th number comes up I don't see that as a design problem but rather a risk tolerance problem.

I think this is fine in single-player because you have options. If that 4% happens and you lose a warrior + settler, you can still come back against the AI. Or you can reload or abandon the game, who cares. In a pitboss, there is no such choice. Not taking that risk is a huge disadvantage because everyone else will do so, so you're left with a scenario where 4% of the time your game is just ruined because you made the right call, and now you have to endure 6-9 more months of a lost game because of it. I'm saying the punishment for the mathematically correct play is way harsher due to external forces that has little to do with Civ4 itself, and that sucks.

I also think you're maybe underestimating how much a monarchy or (base BtS) metal casting hut pop would swing things. Hammers are of course more impactful than beakers, but a warrior vs metal casting is like 15h vs 800b right?!

I'm saying one of those things would make me want to quit, and the other (if a rival gained from it) would not. Also I'm not talking about a 15h warrior, I'm talking about 115h including a settler. That's game over.

[Zed-F]

Maybe as another possible option, give settlers sentry, so that you can see incoming barbs more easily and plan accordingly. Then it doesn’t have to come to a die roll that risks a settler.

Edit: Or give a settler 1 power so that a barb win that kills the defender doesn’t immediately kill the settler and instead still leaves the settler with a chance to retreat.

[scooter]

Turn 21


I figured he was unlikely to attack out of the city due to forest + the risk of losing the city if he lost because there's no way he has multiple warriors up this way. The worst case scenario is I walk away having mildly annoyed a neighbor, OR I lose a warrior in a manner that doesn't hurt that much, so the downside is low while the upside is quite high. Plus, I want the map intel. Turn rolled as I was finishing lunch, so let's see what he's got.






Hello. He does have a tile roaded, so the odds of there being a unit in range are pretty good, so I don't think anything will come of this other than messing with his worker micro.... but maybe?



Note: The double move situation is weird as mentioned before because I started last turn prior to him, but he logged in during the middle of it and ended turn before me. However, I double-checked my screenshot from last turn (see above), and you can see I moved the warrior prior to him completing the turn. Looking at my local time in the upper-right corner, and I can also see that screenshot was taken a little more than a minute before he logged in. So I'm definitely not double moving here. Just wanted to clarify in case it comes up.


PRO: 4 (65)
FIN: 2 (36)

[scooter]

He played right after me, so I popped into game to see. No screenshots but....


The city is empty, and the worker pulled back. I'll think about it until the next turn rolls, but like 90% sure I burn it. 10% chance I convince myself I can make a friend by leaving it, but that's likely over-thinking it. Kneecapping a neighbor in a game where having a weak neighbor is insanely valuable sounds like a no-brainer to me.

[scooter]

Turn 22


So I thought pretty seriously about whether it's worth it to raze AutomatedTeller's city. The downsides are actually not trivial. For one, obviously it potentially gets me a blood enemy for the remainder of the game who owns aggressive samurais. That seems bad! Further, razing the city doesn't actually gain me anything directly other than a few coins of gold. Leaving the city might result in him feeling indebted to me, meaning I could count on him being a solid ally for a long time. Finally, kneecapping AT buffs Cornflakes as it makes it harder for AT to compete with him for key wonders. This is all pretty compelling, but...










It's done. Here's the thing. I've got 4 cities right now, and this leaves him with 2. I've got the best tech rate and expect that to continue for a good chunk of time, and I bet his is among the worst. Aggressive Samurai are only a threat if I don't have Cho-Ku-Nus and/or Knights by then, but I think I will. The value of having a crippled neighbor is immense. If he lags behind hard because of this, he would be that much easier to conquer in a game where easy conquests will be tough to come by. So I did it. I feel kind of bad. AT is an incredibly pleasant guy, but it had to be done.






Commodore showed up at my southern borders. I may have to park here for a turn or two to stall for my warriors to be in a good place to block him off. I'm not quite sure where he came from. I think this makes him the middle player on the Wheel, but AT's positioning doesn't quite line up with where I expected players to be placed. I'll try to puzzle that out later.


Commodore has 3 cities, and most notably he's not in Slavery yet. Here's the current city counts to the best of my knowledge:

The Black Sword: 5
scooter: 4
Cornflakes: 3
Commodore: 3
Mr Cairo: 2?
AutomatedTeller: 2

The question mark for Cairo is because I combed through PBSpy and can't find a third city, but it would be truly bizarre for him not to have a third by now given that he's Imperialistic. TBS getting up to 5 (as of this turn) so quickly is impressive and suggests he sacrificed a lot to do so. I'm still 4T away from my 5th city, for example, and nobody else is even at 4 yet.






I'm thinking a bit about where to go next tech-wise. There are some obvious choices like Archery or Writing, but I'm noodling over going for a religion. I had no plans to get religion, but it seems like everyone else is thinking the same thing and is frantically cleaning up worker techs. Given that I expect I have the best tech rate right now easily, maybe taking a religion with it is the right play. I'm going to think about this a bit more. My primary inclination was Archery for safety and then start myself on the trek towards Currency, but even an Oracle play might be interesting and viable with a head start despite the presence of Cornflakes. The biggest weakness of Industrious has always been that the barrier to wonders is usually beakers, not hammers.

[scooter]

Turn 23






Goodbye warrior. I don't see any way this doesn't end in death. One thing I have to consider here is he might send these warriors straight at me. I went ahead and marked out how long it would take, so I can easily cover it off. However, I took an extra precaution.







Rather than delete, I'm going to make it so one warrior has to go out of his way to kill me. That means he can't get 2 warriors to my land by T29. Not that it matters a whole lot, but it makes things a bit simpler and less prone to dice rolls. I'll have either an archer or a chariot ready for him if he sends it.






I renamed my cities! I'm going with popular conspiracy theories, in no small part due to how, uh, widespread they are at the moment. I especially liked naming my capital Flat Earth given we're actually playing on a flat map. We'll see if I regret this theming choice. I probably won't name one after the current pandemic though. Too soon. And of course, please don't take any names as anything remotely resembling an endorsement . Also, the names will be a bit USA-centric. Sorry about that, but if there are any popular ones that an American is less likely to know about, feel free to share them, so long as you promise not to openly advocate for them in this thread. Fan Death, for example, is a strong contender that might get a city name at some point.


Horse was found 2E of the newly christened Flat Earth. I'm debating whether to grab Archery now, or to go for the religion. Archery is obviously a no-brainer for me, but I can also have a Chariot out instead, which is more immediately useful. My tentative plan is to line up a double whip on the granary in Moon Landing to try to overflow heavily into a unit. We'll see. I was trying to figure out how to redeem the Sugar location, but the horse makes it more viable. I'd probably settle on the Sugar and make it a Financial Fishing town, but that's an extra tile I can share while the capital works cottages. I'm also quite tempted to push hard over to the "25" sign and settle up on AT backed by Protective Archers, but I need to know how good the south is first. So far, it looks insanely good and important, so that may have to wait. I gave some thought to just teching Horseback Riding and Horchering my way east, but that seems very risky without enough reward given how much lush map is still out there.






Still looking good. I'm actually #1 in soldiers what with my 4 and soon to be 3 warriors. Nobody has a real unit yet.


edit:

FIN: 2 (40)
PRO: 4 (73)

[superdeath]

I had to look up Fan Death.. Man.. i thought only my fellow Americans were dumb.

[Charriu]

Here is a fun one:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bielefeld_Conspiracy

[pindicator]

Didn't John Oliver just do a show on conspiracies this last weekend?

[GeneralKilCavalry]

Another conspiracy:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lenin_was_a_mushroom