Wildcard game predictions :
With the caveat that raging barbs raise the entropy level of this games a notch (AI losing a city to a bad roll, barb city spawning on a key expansion path and then captured by a random roaming unit from another civ, etc...), let's try and make sense of this one.
On the left, "Team Evil" : Mao, Brennus, Genghis Khan, Gilgamesh, Tokugawa.
On the right, "Team Good" : Hammurabi, Bismarck.
Pretty lopsided, hey : 5 vs 2.
Well... I believe Team Good has a shot, actually.
Hammurabi has the most sheltered initial position, with copper at his capital, and decent coastal sites in his backline : he should be off to a good start, and in a leading position in the early game.
Bismarck, provided he researches The Wheel sometime before turn 150
, has the most room for peaceful expansion (the peninsula to his south-east), and should be one of the bigger AIs by the early mid-game.
And while the opposing "team" will be torn apart by internal strife, these two should get along brilliantly (there's even a strong possibility that Hammurabi founds a religion he'll spread to Bismarck).
So Hammurabi as the tech leader and Bismarck as the military leader overcoming the opposition... don't discount it as a mere fanciful notion.
That said, them having a shot doesn't mean it's a good one.
About 25% ?
So Team Evil should prevail, yeah.
And if Team Evil wins, Mao wins.
Wait, what ??
Mao ?
The guy who drew a fishing start while not having fishing ?
The guy who doesn't have copper, whose horses won't be connected until his second border pop, and who might also lack iron altogether ?
With Genghis Khan as a neighbour ?
The guy who, in his previous game, also drew a fishing start, and stayed a non-entity throughout after an attack by his Celt neighbour ?
And who has the other Celt as a neighbour this time ?
That guy ? Really ?
Yes, that guy.
I don't think any of the central AIs (Genghis, Gilgamesh, Tokugawa) has a shot.
Hell, I don't think any of them survives.
(OK, two of them will die, the surviving one might do okay. Might. Hypothetically.)
Each of them should exhaust themselves through mostly sterile fights with their neighbours, until one of those wars turns in a dogpile from opposite sides.
Genghis vs Hammurabi and Mao.
Gilgamesh vs Brennus and Tokugawa.
Tokugawa vs Bismarck and Gilgamesh.
Plus, they lack the natural expansion path along the coast, towards the poles, that the outer AIs have.
So, that leaves Brennus and Mao.
Brennus, whose economy will stink.
He will found the first religion (he might open agriculture, but as the only AI starting with mysticism, I don't think that even then he'd be beaten by two other AIs to an early religion)... but he might end up as a religious pariah since after Hammurabi, Gilgamesh is the most likely to found the second religion.
And Mao, through sheer teching speed, may also found a relevant third religion.
And you know what would be worse for him than being a religious pariah ?
Not being a religious pariah.
He's a warmonger who's surrounded by similar peace weight AIs... who can't plot at pleased.
So he may launch costly and ineffectual across-the-map offensives.
All that means that he'll be off to very slow start.
He should grow to a decent size, and eventually come on top of his wars with Gilgamesh.
But way too late, and from too deep of a tech hole to have any chance at winning the game.
So... Mao, then ?
He's actually a strong economic leader, one of those who'll always get Communism before Rifling, and who just might push all the way to Assembly Line and Medecine before considering it.
You know the kind.
He's only hampered by pretty bad traits.
Well, protective could come in handy in a raging barbs context, and bonus health from expansive helps, since the growth of AI cities if often health-limited.
But that's no Financial.
Now, guess what ?
There's no financial leader in this game.
Also, he should get the gems to his south-east with his settler, which will boost his initial research rate.
And with the only coastal capital, the Great Lighthouse should be his.
So he'll have the stronger economy by far, with only Hammurabi keeping him in sight, at a respectful and growing distance.
He's an eco leader who also builds a lot units, isn't afraid to use them, and can plot at pleased.
In other words, he should dominate the game.
... if he can survive the early turns.
Now, I don't buy into the "bad techs for his start" argument. Sure, he doesn't start with Fishing, but that's a dirt cheap tech for a Diety AI, and he has flood plains : a farmed flood plain is only one commerce short compared to clams (before lighthouse).
The horse situation is bad : no early chariots to help fend off barbs. Protective archers will do great on defense, but he might lose them on offensive.
The copper situation is even worse : the only time he'll be able to make use of copper is when he goes for Statue of Liberty. And maybe not even then.
So again, tough situation vs barbs, but far worse if Genghis Khan comes knocking early. Except Genghis should attack Hammurabi first (peace weight), and only turn West after the failure of that first war.
By which time, Mao will have iron.
Or... will he ?
There are 4 sources of iron more or less near him.
The closest is to the east : it may get grabbed by Genghis.
The south-east source (past the gems spot) is at risk from Gilgamesh and Tokugawa.
The south source is closer to Brennus, and could also be grabbed by Gilgamesh.
The northern source is in barb city territory.
So... doomed ?
AI tech priorities may have us facepalming often and hard, but in the face of the barb invasion, I think Mao will research Bronze Working early (he starts with Mining, which by the way, if he gets the gems spot, is a good starting tech ).
No copper.
He'll try for horses (Animal Husbandry), then.
Zippers.
At which point he should heavily prioritize Iron Working.
I think he'll get an early Iron Working, and if one of the sources is still available, he'll go hard for it.
And while each of sources has a decent chance of not being available... ALL four of them being taken by then, that would be pretty unlucky.
But it could happen.
If it does... cf. "Team Good" wins.
Last hurdle : if he choses to enter the early religion race, he's pretty much toast.
Whether he wins that race or not, he'd be late for Iron Working (bad), and might, through earlier border expansions, spur Genghis into attacking him first instead of Hammurabi (combined with the former, very bad).
If he wins that race, it gets worse : he'll get diplo maluses with Brennus before having had the time to build up relations (trading + open borders), pretty much guaranteeing a Brennus attack.
So basically, if opens Mysticism, he's in serious trouble : increased risk of having no metals while facing a combined attack by Genghis Khan and Brennus !
But as one of leaders with the lowest emphasis on religion, he shouldn't do it. (Right ? Just ask Sullla as he was trying to get his passive-aggressive started !
)
OK, so let's say Mao wins.
Who comes second then ?
Brennus has the best chance I think. As mentionned, he should be off to a rough start, but has a decent chance of getting through.
If not Brennus, it might be the surviving central civ (if any).
But Bismarck would be my second choice. Hammurabi will not survive a strong Mao, but Mao conquers the North while Bismarck conquers the South ? Could happen.
So...
Main Scenario : 75%
Winner : Mao
Runner-Up : Brennus > Bismarck > Gilgamesh/Genghis/Tokugawa
Alternate scenario : 25%
Winner : Hammurabi
Runner-up : Bismarck
And with Bismarck a prominent runner-up chance in both cases, a Mao / Bismarck bet could make sense...
Less likely to score 10 points, more likely to score at least 5 ?
Oh, and who's first to die ?
One of the "central civs" : Genghis, Gilgamesh, Tokegawa.
As for which of the three... no idea.
random.org might have a suggestion worth heeding ?
On the left, "Team Evil" : Mao, Brennus, Genghis Khan, Gilgamesh, Tokugawa.
On the right, "Team Good" : Hammurabi, Bismarck.
Pretty lopsided, hey : 5 vs 2.
Well... I believe Team Good has a shot, actually.
Hammurabi has the most sheltered initial position, with copper at his capital, and decent coastal sites in his backline : he should be off to a good start, and in a leading position in the early game.
Bismarck, provided he researches The Wheel sometime before turn 150
, has the most room for peaceful expansion (the peninsula to his south-east), and should be one of the bigger AIs by the early mid-game.And while the opposing "team" will be torn apart by internal strife, these two should get along brilliantly (there's even a strong possibility that Hammurabi founds a religion he'll spread to Bismarck).
So Hammurabi as the tech leader and Bismarck as the military leader overcoming the opposition... don't discount it as a mere fanciful notion.
That said, them having a shot doesn't mean it's a good one.
About 25% ?
So Team Evil should prevail, yeah.
And if Team Evil wins, Mao wins.
Wait, what ??
Mao ?
The guy who drew a fishing start while not having fishing ?
The guy who doesn't have copper, whose horses won't be connected until his second border pop, and who might also lack iron altogether ?
With Genghis Khan as a neighbour ?
The guy who, in his previous game, also drew a fishing start, and stayed a non-entity throughout after an attack by his Celt neighbour ?
And who has the other Celt as a neighbour this time ?
That guy ? Really ?
Yes, that guy.
I don't think any of the central AIs (Genghis, Gilgamesh, Tokugawa) has a shot.
Hell, I don't think any of them survives.
(OK, two of them will die, the surviving one might do okay. Might. Hypothetically.)
Each of them should exhaust themselves through mostly sterile fights with their neighbours, until one of those wars turns in a dogpile from opposite sides.
Genghis vs Hammurabi and Mao.
Gilgamesh vs Brennus and Tokugawa.
Tokugawa vs Bismarck and Gilgamesh.
Plus, they lack the natural expansion path along the coast, towards the poles, that the outer AIs have.
So, that leaves Brennus and Mao.
Brennus, whose economy will stink.
He will found the first religion (he might open agriculture, but as the only AI starting with mysticism, I don't think that even then he'd be beaten by two other AIs to an early religion)... but he might end up as a religious pariah since after Hammurabi, Gilgamesh is the most likely to found the second religion.
And Mao, through sheer teching speed, may also found a relevant third religion.
And you know what would be worse for him than being a religious pariah ?
Not being a religious pariah.
He's a warmonger who's surrounded by similar peace weight AIs... who can't plot at pleased.
So he may launch costly and ineffectual across-the-map offensives.
All that means that he'll be off to very slow start.
He should grow to a decent size, and eventually come on top of his wars with Gilgamesh.
But way too late, and from too deep of a tech hole to have any chance at winning the game.
So... Mao, then ?
He's actually a strong economic leader, one of those who'll always get Communism before Rifling, and who just might push all the way to Assembly Line and Medecine before considering it.
You know the kind.
He's only hampered by pretty bad traits.
Well, protective could come in handy in a raging barbs context, and bonus health from expansive helps, since the growth of AI cities if often health-limited.
But that's no Financial.
Now, guess what ?
There's no financial leader in this game.
Also, he should get the gems to his south-east with his settler, which will boost his initial research rate.
And with the only coastal capital, the Great Lighthouse should be his.
So he'll have the stronger economy by far, with only Hammurabi keeping him in sight, at a respectful and growing distance.
He's an eco leader who also builds a lot units, isn't afraid to use them, and can plot at pleased.
In other words, he should dominate the game.
... if he can survive the early turns.
Now, I don't buy into the "bad techs for his start" argument. Sure, he doesn't start with Fishing, but that's a dirt cheap tech for a Diety AI, and he has flood plains : a farmed flood plain is only one commerce short compared to clams (before lighthouse).
The horse situation is bad : no early chariots to help fend off barbs. Protective archers will do great on defense, but he might lose them on offensive.
The copper situation is even worse : the only time he'll be able to make use of copper is when he goes for Statue of Liberty. And maybe not even then.
So again, tough situation vs barbs, but far worse if Genghis Khan comes knocking early. Except Genghis should attack Hammurabi first (peace weight), and only turn West after the failure of that first war.
By which time, Mao will have iron.
Or... will he ?
There are 4 sources of iron more or less near him.
The closest is to the east : it may get grabbed by Genghis.
The south-east source (past the gems spot) is at risk from Gilgamesh and Tokugawa.
The south source is closer to Brennus, and could also be grabbed by Gilgamesh.
The northern source is in barb city territory.
So... doomed ?
AI tech priorities may have us facepalming often and hard, but in the face of the barb invasion, I think Mao will research Bronze Working early (he starts with Mining, which by the way, if he gets the gems spot, is a good starting tech
). No copper.
He'll try for horses (Animal Husbandry), then.
Zippers.
At which point he should heavily prioritize Iron Working.
I think he'll get an early Iron Working, and if one of the sources is still available, he'll go hard for it.
And while each of sources has a decent chance of not being available... ALL four of them being taken by then, that would be pretty unlucky.
But it could happen.
If it does... cf. "Team Good" wins.
Last hurdle : if he choses to enter the early religion race, he's pretty much toast.
Whether he wins that race or not, he'd be late for Iron Working (bad), and might, through earlier border expansions, spur Genghis into attacking him first instead of Hammurabi (combined with the former, very bad).
If he wins that race, it gets worse : he'll get diplo maluses with Brennus before having had the time to build up relations (trading + open borders), pretty much guaranteeing a Brennus attack.
So basically, if opens Mysticism, he's in serious trouble : increased risk of having no metals while facing a combined attack by Genghis Khan and Brennus !
But as one of leaders with the lowest emphasis on religion, he shouldn't do it. (Right ? Just ask Sullla as he was trying to get his passive-aggressive started !
)OK, so let's say Mao wins.
Who comes second then ?
Brennus has the best chance I think. As mentionned, he should be off to a rough start, but has a decent chance of getting through.
If not Brennus, it might be the surviving central civ (if any).
But Bismarck would be my second choice. Hammurabi will not survive a strong Mao, but Mao conquers the North while Bismarck conquers the South ? Could happen.
So...
Main Scenario : 75%
Winner : Mao
Runner-Up : Brennus > Bismarck > Gilgamesh/Genghis/Tokugawa
Alternate scenario : 25%
Winner : Hammurabi
Runner-up : Bismarck
And with Bismarck a prominent runner-up chance in both cases, a Mao / Bismarck bet could make sense...
Less likely to score 10 points, more likely to score at least 5 ?
Oh, and who's first to die ?
One of the "central civs" : Genghis, Gilgamesh, Tokegawa.
As for which of the three... no idea.
random.org might have a suggestion worth heeding ?
