Civ AI Survivor: Season Five

[Borsche]

That has to be one of the weirdest games I've watched in a while. What a weird season.

[Fluffball]

That has to be one of the weirdest games I've watched in a while. What a weird season.

We've seen countless examples over the years of AIs just getting totally stuck and shutting down for no reason. They'll stop expanding on 3 cities, park a monster-mega-doomstack in the artice ice during a critical war, or have like 3 settlers in their capital during the landgrab phase, etc. There's been a LOT of weirdness over the years (especially when you look at victory conditions! I'm looking at you in particular, culture slider .)

Some power players have been floundering this season, but I don't think it's out of the ordinary at all. Mansa or Stalin or JC or whoever just getting stuck is pretty common at this point.

[Borsche]

That has to be one of the weirdest games I've watched in a while. What a weird season.

We've seen countless examples over the years of AIs just getting totally stuck and shutting down for no reason. They'll stop expanding on 3 cities, park a monster-mega-doomstack in the artice ice during a critical war, or have like 3 settlers in their capital during the landgrab phase, etc. There's been a LOT of weirdness over the years (especially when you look at victory conditions! I'm looking at you in particular, culture slider .)

Some power players have been floundering this season, but I don't think it's out of the ordinary at all. Mansa or Stalin or JC or whoever just getting stuck is pretty common at this point.

I just don't think I've seen multiple civs come back from non-competitive levels to make a play for the end game. To say nothing of the Lotharingia style civ we saw in this game. Though I think some astute prognosticators foresaw a civ getting caught between cultural/religion or cultural/wonders.

[Eauxps I. Fourgott]

I will say that I agree that this match felt particularly strange. It wasn't clear a lot of the way through how things were going to go, there weren't any clear early leaders... and most notably, the three leaders who played terrible openings ended up as the three contending leaders in the end.  All three most definitely got lucky breaks to survive to the end, while Mao and Augustus really felt like they got unlucky (Sury just played poorly after the beginning).

That said, I am one of the few who's very happy to see three high peaceweight leaders in the championship game. They'll have a decent shot for once!

[Fluffball]

It's such a shame Mansa didn't advance. If any of the high peaceweight crowd deserve a championship title, it's that bad boy. And based on who's in the championship so far, Mansa would absolutely dance circles around them. Turn 260 spaceship win kinda stuff.

[haphazard1]

We've seen countless examples over the years of AIs just getting totally stuck and shutting down for no reason. They'll stop expanding on 3 cities, park a monster-mega-doomstack in the artice ice during a critical war, or have like 3 settlers in their capital during the landgrab phase, etc.

Playoff game 2 thoughts:

Maybe Julius Caesar stopped expanding because his economy could not support more cities? The AI will try to avoid completely bankrupting themselves, and he was not producing much commerce during the land grab phase.

Also, if Sullla still has the auto saves and is willing to check them, it would be very interesting to know what happened when Willem's capital was captured by Sury. With no Khmer catapults to reduce the defenses, what happened? Not enough defenders for some reason? Really bad dice rolls on the defense? Just a huge attack stack from Sury? The chances of that attack being successful were low enough Sullla was not watching it, so it is a mystery just what happened.

[Bobchillingworth]

As best I could tell / track, Julius actually deleted two of his Settlers, around the same time he switched into WHEOOH mode; may have done so to free up maintenance for more combat units.

[Eauxps I. Fourgott]

My thoughts on interesting things in the latest game that didn't make it into the writeup:

-Mao getting super squeezed early on was a big early development. He had an Indian Holy City crammed up on his eastern border and a Khmer Creative city on his western border, which meant that he could only found a single city to the south before being limited to just tundra fishing villages. He did quite well with those, though, and looked like a potential candidate to win before he got dogpiled.

-Willem's timing for the revenge strike on Suryavarman was super-impeccably timed: not only did he attack when the Khmer were busy trying to conquer China, he attacked right after the Khmer had an entire stack wiped out in Chinese territory! Truly the perfect time to strike.

-I'm not inclined to give Sury as much credit as Sullla was. Sury had a great opening and was the biggest leader to watch at the end of the landgrab phase, but then he destroyed his game by going to war too early, and then never staying at peace. His too-early strike against Willem dragged him down to the bottom of the standings, and going after Mao right afterwards ensured he couldn't recover... especially when Willem backstabbed him. Strong opening but then he really threw it all away.

-I'll also contest the statement that JC's attack of AC was the 'correct' move. Attacking SOMEBODY would've been smart, but if he'd gone after the weak Willem instead, he probably would've gotten most of the territory over a far-away Augustus and maybe had a shot at winning. As it was, his long war against Augustus sealed his fate in third place.

-I found it interesting that up until about the time of the dogpile of Mao, there was no clear game leader. Some leaders were doing better than others, but it wasn't until this point that any one really started looking to be in a sustainable strong position (ironically, the first one to get there was Augustus).

-It was also very interesting that Asoka, Willem, and Julius clearly played bad openings - Willem giving away his capital, Asoka leaving himself so vulnerable for so long, and Julius just generally failing. They all go very lucky at some point - Willem having Sury go the other way and Julius leave him alone, Asoka going unattacked when he had no metal for so long, Julius's losing war with Mao turning into a 3v1 in his favor. Yet when the dust cleared, they were the clear top three leaders of the game! It was a duo of impressive comebacks for Willem and Julius, while I thought Asoka played well once he finally got metal, and I think the others would've been hard-pressed to stop him from the conclusion of the Chinese conquest on.

Overall a very wacky game for a wacky season. This felt weirder, for lack of a better term, but it also had more twists and turns then, say, Playoff One. At this point I honestly don't think it would be that surprising to see Gandhi win a Domination Victory this week!

[Wyatan]

Playoffs Game 3 quandary:

So, Gandhi is the obvious favourite for first to die, especially since I believe he'll actually have no metal: the copper source to his West will actually go to Mehmed, I'm pretty sure of it.

But...
Asoka was 90%+ FTD in the previous game, with < 1% chance of surviving at all, and yet... well.
The Gandhi situation seems to me to be more akin to the Lincoln situation: he is the most likely to die first, but it's a far cry from being as clear cut as the Asoka situation.
Hannibal strikes me as the Montezum of this game.
He's going to be very weak (no room to expand except along the coast, and I bet he'll lose the coastal wonders to Hyuna Capac), and he'll have a ton of border tension with the early game ogre, Gilgamesh.

This is Season 5, where the most likely results are the least likely.

So... Hannibal FTD ?

[Sullla]

Community predictions added to the Playoff Game Three preview page: http://www.sullla.com/Civ4/civ4survivor5...eview.html






This is a game of big favorites in the picking contest, including Gandhi's First to Die as the single most popular pick in any category throughout the whole season. Surely nothing can go wrong there, right?

Mousey_Commander: Gandhi is dead

Cjah88: Gandhi is surrounded by sharks on all sides. First to die. Gilgamesh will tech to Longbows incredible fast and secure his land and position as second since The Ottomans are idiots and will fall to Hannibal eventually or even Gilgamesh. Tough to say who takes out the Ottomans, but they're not going to make it to the end. Inca to Space by the early 300s turn wise.

Amicalola: I think this is the perfect opportunity for a diplomatic victory! After the butchering of poor Gandhi, everyone will like each other, and so whoever has the most population seems fairly likely to win diplomatically. At least, more than the "crazy outcome" that it normally is. So I'm rooting for it mostly out of an interest to see something different. As far as who wins it, I think Mehmed might not lead in tech (so someone else will build the UN and be his opponent), but he WILL lead in population with that juicy backline, and hopefully everyone will like him more than whoever the tech leader is, probably Huayna or Hannibal.

eyser24: This game will likely depend on who most benefits after Gandhi's seemingly inevitable collapse, and I think any of these AI besides Peter has a good shot at that. Huayna seems to be the one that is most likely as he is the closest, so I am choosing him based on this as well as general competence. The main thing that worries me is that I know he will be the overwhelming favorite to win this, and the overwhelming favorite in this picking contest never wins! For second place Gilgamesh is starting to remind me of Kublai Khan. He just does not have the killer instinct to win (his wildcard game and war against Genghis was pretty poorly executed and he did not deserve the victory in that game), but he survives, can take out a rival consistently, and performs well enough to get second place. He also has a great start here and really should be able to take out a neighbor or two. I do not see Peter doing much of anything besides getting attacked by Gilgamesh. Mehmed could balloon if he is the one to take out Gandhi, and I think he has the mostly likely chance to do so after Huayna. Hannibal is a wildcard and I suspect he will probably not get wiped out, but not win. If he attacks either Mehmed or Gilgamesh early that would be interesting, as I see he has copper and I do not think the others have that. I think that is unlikely though and he will probably get third place.

ZincAlloy: Ghandi, Ghandi, Ghandi. What are you thinking, having a peace weight so high? It's twice all your opponents' weights combined! I have to say, I don't think you're long for this world. Huayna's probably the one to do Ghandi in, and that boost will help him out against Gilgamesh and his capital made out of solid gold. Well, that and Hannibal being super aggressive will slow Gilgamesh down. I think Mehmed comes second, as he's got a bit more space than everyone else. Honestly, this map is pretty cramped looking for everyone, but we've seen that Huayna can win a game without any real land at all.

rekenner: Huayna. Capac. Huayna. Capac. Huayna. Capac. Super. Hot.

Alhambram: Mehmed got strong triple farmable resources start, he start spamming settlers and starts in slightly bigger area to expand in. Then Mehmed gains most from Gandhi dogpile including his holy city and converts to Gandhi's religion. This put him in conflict with Huyana Capac and in ensuring war Mehmed takes all wonderfilled Incan cities. Then Peter who is close HC and got his religion too is next, ultimately Mehmed dislikes shared borders with Gilgamesh and crushes him to cross domination finish line.

Sleeping Dragon: Gandhi will make AI Survivor history by becoming the first AI to attempt to ragequit, after meeting all his neighbours and being Worst Enemy of Everyone by T27. He will be unable to quit, being a computer program, and from then on he will bombard the Observer civ with messages. Rather than messages asking to cancel deals or join the inevitable mass wars against him, instead he'll resort to comments such as: "Oh thanks for disabling the Apostolic Palace this season! I'm SO glad I don't have the ability to force people to make peace!" and "So Asoka gets two straight games where he can just build peacefully in a corner and the only war on him was declared by HATTIE of all people, and I get this crowd? FML!"

LinkMarioSamus: Time for Huayna Capac to show how things are done around here. Can we return to some semblance of normalcy please?

Eauxps I. Fourgott: It's as though this game was custom-made for Huayna to dominate. He's coming off a game where he dominated despite a horrible start, against four leaders who all underperformed in the opening round and didn't do as well as they should (Peter as the maybe-exception because Alex didn't leave a lot of room to move)... and Gandhi, who's like a mouse tossed in a pool of crocodiles. He will be snapped up very quickly, and it'll be Huayna's show from there. There's no way this could possibly go wrong, right? RIGHT?

Bernn: Let's get the immediate out of the way first: Gandhi is not going to survive this game. He pulled off a miraculous win in his opening match, but this field is a far harder ask and he's a natural FTD candidate because of it. But it's not going to be an early death, based on the scarce copper - this won't be a game where Gandhi gets rushed by axes and spears and folds early on. Everyone else is going to hate Gandhi's guts, but they'll need Iron Working and probably Construction to crack India. Thus, the leaders in the best shape this match are the ones who can develop and grow their economy well in the earlier stages of the game before growing strong militarily and winning prizes through conquest. I really want to pick Huayna Capac because that describes his game plan perfectly, but that coastal start is making me nervous. Hannibal's capital looks good to me and he can definitely play the economic game, but I think that copper nearby will do him more harm than good by encouraging early, unproductive wars. But Gilgamesh, crawling his way back from the Wildcard game, looks really good to me. Triple gold plus floodplains will get his economy off to a humming start, and Creative is always strong. I think the Sumerians will make it to the final again.

dankok8: Hard to go against Capac here. He's got nearby Iron and has Gandhi as a meat shield on one side. The latter will get absorbed by Mehmed or maybe Gilga but Capac will be a full era ahead of them in tech by then. Hannibal and Peter are kind of mediocre AI's that I don't see doing much especially as both don't have much land to expand to. Basically I'm fairly confident with Huayna winning then either Mehmed or Gilga finishing second. Leaning on Mehmed though because he has the most nice land to expand into before devouring Gandhi.

ThreeLeggedChicken: Gandhi gets Season 4 playoffs flashbacks when he is mass-declared by almost every living entity in the planet. Huayna and - early expansion beneficiary extraordinaire, thanks to his backfill in the west - Mehmed share the spoils, while Huayna's religious buddy Peter decides to backstab Gilgamesh instead, which inevitably drags down both leaders. From this point on, Huayna generally techs peacefully, while the combination of his own wonders and Indian holy cities proves enough to propel him to an early cultural victory. Mehmed keeps on declaring mildly successful wars to advance to the championship by sheer land area. In his private residence in Tiwanaku, where he is held confined, Gandhi is heard confessing to security guards "if there ever was a final field I could win, it would be that one. Hell, Washington and Charlemagne would protect me, and I am better than that pretender Asoka - where was he before Civ 4 as a leader?"

Slashin': Gandhi is the Nasus player who goes to the restroom pregame and comes back just when minions spawn, only to get ambushed by 5 Garens in the bush between towers. The one to get first blood snowballs the game from there. I've been burned for not picking Huayna before, and probably will be again for picking a Mehmed/Gilgamesh ticket. Will Huayna Capac likely win the game? Probably, its freaking Huayna Capac and his start is by no means bad. However, picking Huayna doesn't get me an edge in the playoff scoring contest and I have lost ground I need to cover in any hopes of getting in first. As a result, I'm going for the second most likely scenario. I'm picking Mehmed for first because his start is unprecedently fast, with THREE WET FOOD FARMING resources he can leverage right off the bat with his starting techs, with Gilgamesh being the natural runner up to Mehmed with farmable flood plains and those gold hills. Additionally, he starts with the wheel so his tech preferences wont screw with him as much like the other military leaders. Neither Gilgamesh nor Mehmed have easy access to copper, but this may be a blessing in disguise as one of the other leaders with copper wear themselves down first on gandhi's walls, while these two swoop for the kill with their massive infrastructure base later on on a weakened gandhi. It's very likely that Mehmed adopts Gandhi's religion, especially if he captures Gandhi's holy city, and this will put him at odds with Huayna Capac and co. once military struggles decay. Since he can't declare war at pleased, I think the win will be a spaceship victory, which also hedges on the scenario if huayna capac wins instead.

Brian Shanahan: I think Huayna's going to win this one. He won the first game from an unwinnable start so an average one shouldn't faze him. To do that he kills Gandhi and rides the two civ's worth of land to Alpha Centauri. I picked Gilgamesh second because of his three gold floodplain HOF start.

Random.org: With last weeks sixteen points, is this the turnaround that random.org needs?

Playoff Game Three Picking Contest Entry Form