[SPOILER] Close to Win

[Old Harry]

I don't see any rules against peace for cities if that's what you're asking. Seems fine to me?

Agree. You could always make that demand yourself...

[Charriu]

Yes, I could, but I only thought about it after I finished turn and AT already played

[Charriu]

T134:

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Of course, AT did not retreat his troops. So on we go to the battlefield again. Unfortunately I forgot to make any screenshot from before the battle. Here the report:

Catapult Barrage vs Axeman C2 (3.1%) = LOSS, hit 1 time, 5 collateral
Catapult Barrage vs Holkan C1 Shock Woodsmen 3 Medic 1 (14.7%) = LOSS, hit 1 times, 4 collateral
Catapult Barrage vs Archer CG 1 (9.7%) = LOSS, hit 1 times, 5 collateral
Catapult City Raider vs Holkan C1 Shock Woodsmen 3 Medic 1 (40.0%) = LOSS, hit 3 times, 6 collateral
Gallic Warrior Guerilla 3 CR 1 vs Axeman C2 (43.6%, Withdraw 28.2%) = WITHDRAW, hit 4 times
Gallic Warrior Guerilla 1 CR 1 C1 vs Archer CG1 (80.5%) = WIN, hit 4 times
Gallic Warrior Guerilla 1 CR 1 C1 vs Archer CG1 (82.4%) = LOSS, hit 1 times
Gallic Warrior Guerilla 2 CR 1 vs Archer CG1 (92.1%) = WIN, hit 1 time
Gallic Warrior Guerilla 1 CR 1 C1 vs Holkan C2 Woodsman 2 (74.9%) = LOSS, hit 2 times
Gallic Warrior Guerilla 1 CR 1 C1 vs Holkan C2 Woodsman 2 (74.9%) = LOSS, hit 2 times
Axeman CR1 vs Archer (66.3%) = WIN, hit 4 times
Axeman CR1 C1 vs Catapult Drill 1 (75.5%) = Flawless WIN
Axeman CR1 C1 vs Catapult Drill 1 (75.5%) = Flawless WIN
Axeman C1 Shock vs Archer (85.3%) = WIN, hit 1 times
Axeman CR1 vs Holkan C1 Shock Woodsman 1 (74.9%) = WIN, hit 3 times
Gallic Warrior Guerilla 1 CR 1 C1 vs Holkan C1 Shock Woodsmen 3 Medic 1 (96.6%) = Flawless WIN
Axeman C1 Shock vs Chariot (97.4%) = Flawless WIN
Axeman C1 Shock vs Holkan C2 Woodsman 2 (99.1%) = WIN, hit 2 times
Chariot C1 Medic 1 vs Axeman (99.4%) = Flawless WIN

No GGs were born. Casualties were mostly on ATs side

AT:
2 catapults
1 Axemen
3 Holkan
1 Chariot
4 Archer
= 11 units, for 370 hammers, most of them highly promoted, beating AT into submission = Priceless

Me:
4 catapults
3 Gallic Warrior
= 7 units, for 300 hammers

This is the picture after the battle with my movements done:




GoldsmithSkags still had a granary and a Dun. I send "most" of my units south to aid the defense of the capital against the evil empire of the east. Now lets see if I made an impression on ATs power graph





Uh, yes I did and there will be another drop for him in a few turns from the city capture. Now seeing this I did the following:

• Peace for 29 gold and 5 GPT; If I want to be able to do the impossible and beat Jowy I do need peace in the north. More gold can only help me teching towards Feudalism.
  
• Asked Mjmd and Mr. Cairo to declare war on AT. Now is their best chance to snack on AT.
  

While we are on the topic of diplomacy. I made numerous attempts to Mr. Cairo to help me in the war, from declare war against AT, stop trading with AT or just his copper for my sheep, but he declined everything. Superdeath tried to get some gold from me for OBs, which didn't help either. The only player that was a real help here was pindicator. His gift of iron is the sole reason why I'm still standing and his gems for wine offer also most certainly helps. That's why I send him another sugar for my sheep offer. Thanks a lot buddy. If my survival helps you win this PB then you deserved it for the help you offered. Take note other players.




With the north mostly pacified I can finally focus on the south. Thankfully Jowy still is moving very slowly. He could have moved to the hill 1N with his stack and would have gotten 1 turn earlier to my capital. The only reason why I still have a tiny chance down here is because of his slow movement. Then again I have to remember that he does not know how my land looks like because we never had open borders. So far I'm counting:

Jowy:
16 actual attackers
8 catapults

Me:
19 defenders (2 are not visible and coming from the north, 1 spearman in production)
3 catapults (some in production)

So my capital will definitly survive one attack. The question is will he suicide his cats or will he bombard my capital like before. With more cats I might have a chance to beat his stack. My initial thought is to keep just enough units in my capital so that it doesn't fall in one turn. Keep the cats and other units out of sight, but still in striking distance. Goal here would be that he suicides his cats into the city and possible loose some units against mine. Then I could go into the counter offensive with his cats gone.

[Charriu]

T135:

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AT did not accept my peace offer and instead send a peace for peace offer back. Ok so we are negotiating. I rejected and send him a peace for 34 gold deal back. Maybe he takes it? Anyway longer negotiations will only increase the time I will have peace with him, not that he has any army that could attack me.

Nobody declared war against AT (yet) and pindicator took the sugar for my sheep deal. Thanks, buddy. That's especially helpful as Jowy will pillage my only ivory resource.




Down south Jowy is moving forward. Two things that are immediately interesting. First he left one maceman behind, which is great as those are the units hardest to deal with for me. Second he did not stop to heal 5 of his units. I moved down everything I have. I do expect him to move to the hill 1SW from the capital. He has 15 actual attackers (don't forget the chariot), so I will need at least 16 units in the capital, which I can do. I can move 3 more archers into the capital, which brings the total unit count to 16. Now the big question is should I move everything into the capital or should try to hide the units including the catapults. I can move 8 additional units into the city. Now here is my thought process about those options:

Leave only 16 units:

• He can't take the city in one turn.
  
• Higher chance that he might attack. If he chooses to attack my archers will get good use, which they can't do if I attack.
  
• He might suicide his catapults, which is good for a counter-offensive.
  
• If he suicides the 7 archers will soack up some collateral damage
  
• There's also a higher chance that he might try to take DiplomatKobolds, but then he would be on flat ground.
  
• I would have to attack him on the hill afterwards.
  
• Counter offensive force will be:
  
• 4 catapults
  
• 7 axeman (some possibly damaged)
  
• 5 spearman (some possibly damaged)
  
• 2 Gallic Warriors (some damaged)
  
• 7 archers (some possibly damaged)
  
• 1 damaged chariot
  

Make a show of force with 24 units:

• He can't take the city in one turn.
  
• Higher chance that he might retreat back to CommandoPygmies and wait for more reinforcements. This also gives me time to research Feudalism.
  
• Gives me time to move down my main army from the north and heal up those units.
  
• Making a counter attack on CommandoPygmies gives most of my units the best odds.
  
• Catapults are still alive and might soak up some precious collateral damage from my cats.
  
• But then again my units are at full strength.
  
• More units are being produced that go on the attack.
  
• Counter offensive in case he retreats back to CommandoPygmies:
  
• 4 catapults
  
• 8 axeman + 7 damaged northern axeman = 15
  
• 6 spearman
  
• 2 Gallic Warriors + 4 damaged northern warriors = 6
  
• 7 archers
  
• 2 chariots
  

The more I think about it the more the 'show of force' option looks better to me. If can make him retreat back to the city I have the best odds.

[Charriu]

T136:

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Or Jowy just retreats immediately. I count this as a tiny victory. AT send me another blank peace offer, which I rejected at first, but then send back. Having peace in the north for the next 10 turns is rather appreciated. If it weren't for Jowy I most certainly would have gone on the offensive vs AT. Now Jowys retreat gives me the option to move my whole northern army into the southern theatre. They will heal as best as the can, while I whip another round of catapults. Then we are going reconquering the south. Unfortunately Jowy moved a galley near my island city and will capture it this turn. I didn't have any units there as I focused on the main land and my galley was sunk by a barb during the early struggles with Jowy.





Never mess with me again AT. Also why did nobody else attack him by now. He's lying on the ground, beaten. It's easy picking time.

[Charriu]

T137:

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Jowy offered me white peace, which I rejected. I do have a big army down there and I want to at least use it and recapture as much as I can. Otherwise there were no interesting movements down south, but not so in the north. As you can see Jowy is building up forces in his border city Rowe and more importantly he has a galley there. That's why I moved some fully healed axeman and archers in position to reinforce defense in my northern border cities. The goal here is holding out and now that all those archers aren't that important for the southern counteroffensive I might as well use them in the north. As you can see the next rounds of catapults is coming around. They will need a few turns to move to the southern front, so it doesn't hurt to position all those units to be flexible in defense.

Also I'm inching my way towards Feudalism as you can see. I can finish it most likely in the next 5 turns. After that it's Machinery and then Engineering both for defense and the economy bonus in form of more trade routes.

Oh and AT did take the peace. Now we can hopefully go back to a better relationship and maybe, just maybe both attack Jowy next time?

[Charriu]

With the war against AT has come to an end it's worth checking back about the results. First the casulaties

AT:

• Holkans: 7
  
• Axeman: 7
  
• Catapults: 11
  
• Chariots: 3
  
• Swordsmen: 2
  
• Archers: 4
  

That's a total of 34 units worth 1310 hammers. Also noteworthy is that the majority of his units were highly promoted from his previous fighting with other players.

Me:

• Spearman: 1
  
• Axeman: 5
  
• Catapults: 7
  
• Chariots: 1
  
• Gallic Warriors: 8
  
• Archers: 3
  
• Workers: 1
  

A total of 26 units worth 1045 hammers.

So the casualties are very good for me. But those are not the only losses. In addition to above I briefly lost control of GoldsmithSkags and I had to convert almost all my forests and some more whips into an army. Of course the biggest loss is that this war triggered Jowy to enter into a dogpile. I do think that Jowy might have attacked me anyway at some point, but it certainly didn't help being attacked by two people. AT of course was also hurt by this war if not as much as myself. In addition to his lost army he mostly likely did some more whips and his GNP is even worth then mine.

All in all this was a lose-lose-situation for both of us as I have predicted. It would have been a lot, and I mean a lot better if we both would have attacked Jowy together. Now we are both at the bottom of the scoreboard, but then again maybe AT just wanted company there.

[GeneralKilCavalry]

Do you think you could’ve done anything better on the quasi-diplomatic front to prevent this dogpile from occurring?

[Charriu]

Great question. I start with my direct neighbors as those are most interesting.

Jowy: I was very unresponsive towards him for the most time. In the beginning I was a bit afraid as he is the better and more aggressive player compared to myself. Once I realized he only has me and AT as neighbors I tried to isolate him as best as I can (I still don't have 100% evidence for his number of neighbors, but there was a lot pointing towards it.)
Now I could have started to open borders with him, but honestly I don't think this would have prevent his attack on me. Closing borders definitely helped in the war.

AT: We had a somewhat bumpy start with him killing my scout, but soon after it looked like we could be great allies. We had a very peaceful border with enough space between us and a lot of unproductive jungles. We even fought the same enemy at times. Unfortunately there weren't that many opportunities for meaningful resource trades and I could have made my dogpile intentions clearer with a "declare war" offer. 
I can understand why he attacked me (my military weakens and his fear of loosing the opportunity), but from a diplomatic perspective it's still a puzzle why he attacked me.

Mjmd: Now we had a very rough start. I still think that going to war over the floodplain valley was the right decision. But after that and as soon as I learned more about his other neighbors I should have started to ease tension and work on establishing good relations.
It's also worth mentioning that Mjmd also reduced border garrisons during the dog like and never joined the war which is a good sign. I look into making some meaningful trades with him.

Mr. Cairo: We could be working together and trade resources, but nothing happened, because of lack of opportunities or he rejected everything I offered. Him not helping me in the dog like definitely hurts relations.

pindicator: my only friend right now. He keeps me alive, but he's also the front runner. Who will trade with me instead of him?

Superdeath: Met him to late for any meaningful diplo.

[Charriu]

T138+T139:

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As you can see I moved my army into striking position. Very curious how Jowy will react to this. Unfortunately he reinforced the garrison in CommandoPygmies with more catapults, which will reduce the collateral damage from my catapults.
His galley with its load of 1 maceman and something else mostly likely another maceman is strill roaming around my coast. He can unload towards BerzerkHalfling or the capital, but I still have enough flexible units to reinforce either city.

I also send AT an Open Border agreement, because maybe he just realizes that I still don't want to be his enemy.