Last game, I was in total agreement with the communauty (Caesar winner, Sury runner-up, Asoka FTD)... and the result was disastrous.
So maybe it's a good sign that this time I disagree with the communauty on pretty much everything?
So maybe it's a good sign that this time I disagree with the communauty on pretty much everything?
Winner
Communauty: Huyna Capac >>>> Gilgamesh / Mehmed
Me: Gilgamesh >> Huyna Capac
Rationale:
Gilgamesh has a monster capital (duh), but also the best land for his core cities: big river, green tiles, food, metal...
He's also bordering the three weaker civs (Gandhi, Hannibal, Peter): he should be among the first to make a move, and has the best opportunities for pointy stick expansion.
Huyna Capac has poor land, and is going to lack metals until Cuzco can grab the Iron back from the Hinduist Holy City or he founds in the deep tundra.
He'll probably end up on the wrong side of the religious divide with one or both of the stronger early midgame AIs: Mehmed and Gilgamesh.
And that'll spell his doom.
He does have a shot, though, if he expands aggressively to the North or conquers Peter early for instance.
But while I stand by my assessment that their opening round confrontation (hey, how come they end up in the same playoff game btw? wildcard, duh
) was an even match, here Gilgamesh is holding the best cards by far.
Runner-up
Communauty: Gilgamesh >> Mehmed > Hannibal
Me: Mehmed >> Hannibal
Rationale:
Mehmed has the most room to expand and is bordering Gandhi. He should enter the midgame as one the biggest and strongest (militarily) AIs.
And then, as a low peace weight AI in a low peace weight field, with accrued shared military struggle bonuses to boot, he'll be pleased or better with most others... and he can't declare at pleased.
That means he'll have a hard time snowballing to a leading position... but also be at lower risk of exposing himself to a backstab.
So unless he founds a religion and thus finds himself at odds with Gilgamesh, he's the best placed for a 2nd place finish alongside Gilgamesh.
Hannibal is a much weaker chance I believe, except in the case of a Huyna Capac win.
And since I have Gilgamesh as the grand favourite for winning the game, I obviously can't have him as a favourite for runner-up.
First-to-die
Communauty: Gandhi >>>> Peter
Me: Gandhi >> Hannibal
Rationale:
Peter first to die? Well, maybe if the attack on Gandhi comes late enough that he has metal, with his enemies alternating attacks instead of coordinating them, and that Huyna Capac conquers Peter in the meantime?
But I think Hannibal is much more likely to be first to die, for the reasons I gave a coupla days ago in my post above.
Anyway, Gandhi is obviously the most likely to be first to die: no metal, and dogpile bait.
Victory Condition
Communauty: Spaceship >> Domination
Me: Cultural >> Domination
Rationale:
Both favourites heavily emphasize cultural victory.
They might stumble into a domination win, but with these guys a spaceship win is incredibly unlikely here.
Huyna Capac is not a low peace weight Mansa Musa.
Communauty: Huyna Capac >>>> Gilgamesh / Mehmed
Me: Gilgamesh >> Huyna Capac
Rationale:
Gilgamesh has a monster capital (duh), but also the best land for his core cities: big river, green tiles, food, metal...
He's also bordering the three weaker civs (Gandhi, Hannibal, Peter): he should be among the first to make a move, and has the best opportunities for pointy stick expansion.
Huyna Capac has poor land, and is going to lack metals until Cuzco can grab the Iron back from the Hinduist Holy City or he founds in the deep tundra.
He'll probably end up on the wrong side of the religious divide with one or both of the stronger early midgame AIs: Mehmed and Gilgamesh.
And that'll spell his doom.
He does have a shot, though, if he expands aggressively to the North or conquers Peter early for instance.
But while I stand by my assessment that their opening round confrontation (hey, how come they end up in the same playoff game btw? wildcard, duh
) was an even match, here Gilgamesh is holding the best cards by far.Runner-up
Communauty: Gilgamesh >> Mehmed > Hannibal
Me: Mehmed >> Hannibal
Rationale:
Mehmed has the most room to expand and is bordering Gandhi. He should enter the midgame as one the biggest and strongest (militarily) AIs.
And then, as a low peace weight AI in a low peace weight field, with accrued shared military struggle bonuses to boot, he'll be pleased or better with most others... and he can't declare at pleased.
That means he'll have a hard time snowballing to a leading position... but also be at lower risk of exposing himself to a backstab.
So unless he founds a religion and thus finds himself at odds with Gilgamesh, he's the best placed for a 2nd place finish alongside Gilgamesh.
Hannibal is a much weaker chance I believe, except in the case of a Huyna Capac win.
And since I have Gilgamesh as the grand favourite for winning the game, I obviously can't have him as a favourite for runner-up.
First-to-die
Communauty: Gandhi >>>> Peter
Me: Gandhi >> Hannibal
Rationale:
Peter first to die? Well, maybe if the attack on Gandhi comes late enough that he has metal, with his enemies alternating attacks instead of coordinating them, and that Huyna Capac conquers Peter in the meantime?
But I think Hannibal is much more likely to be first to die, for the reasons I gave a coupla days ago in my post above.
Anyway, Gandhi is obviously the most likely to be first to die: no metal, and dogpile bait.
Victory Condition
Communauty: Spaceship >> Domination
Me: Cultural >> Domination
Rationale:
Both favourites heavily emphasize cultural victory.
They might stumble into a domination win, but with these guys a spaceship win is incredibly unlikely here.
Huyna Capac is not a low peace weight Mansa Musa.
Scoring was about average for this game with an average score of 7.07 points thanks to some of the community favorites facepalming in various ways. Pindicator has narrowly taken the season-long lead over Kjotleik, marbe166, and MJG in a race that's coming down to the wire. We are concluding with a Friday date in TWO weeks for the final championship game. There will still be an AI Survivor stream at the usual Friday time slot next week as we build some hype for the upcoming finals. Make your picks carefully as we wrap up this year's competition!
