[SPOILER] Close to Win

[Charriu]

T140:

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Jowy retreated again and left CommandoPygmies to be recaptured, which I did with 1 unit first so that I might have a better view with the reestablished borders. It was a pleasant surprise to see no further units. Now Jowy did not retreat all the way to JuvenileWizards which means he wants me to capture CommandoPygmies so that he can then attack my stack there. I thought about this for a longer time and in the end I moved my whole stack into the city into his obvious trap. Now I don't believe that he will attack this turn. With his 10 catapults he will most likely use 5 to bombard the 40% defenses in CommandoPygmies, which was recaptured with no buildings. After the bombard he only has 5 more catapults and I somehow doubt that he will just suicide 5 catapults. This means that he most likely attacks next turn, when he can suicide all of his 10 catapults and moved in those other reinforcements SE this turn.
You might rightfully question way I moved into this obvious trap. This is my reasoning:

• I have 6 catapults, 2 archers going down the Drill line with collateral reduction, 2 chariots, which can happily divert some collateral
  
• If he attacks this turn he either uses 10 catapults to suicide with +40% defense still in place or 5 catapults to suicide with +0% defense. Either way is most likely fine.
  
• If he attacks next turn, my units will heal after his attack. Because I have way more units then him there should be enough units healing after his attack.
  
• If he attacks I do hope that his units are damaged enough for any counteroffensive by me, especially if his catapults are gone, which are my main obstacle to attack him.
  

As you can see I will finish Feudalism in 2 turns. I started archers everywhere thinking that whipping them the turn before Feudalism is researched would give me a lot of longbowman, but testing it in a sandbox this did not happen. Should have tested it before assigning archers everywhere. At least I didn't already whip them.

[Charriu]

T141:

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Jowy did indeed attack this turn. I do believe taking it slower this turn would have been better. He could have easily bombarded my defenses and attack this turn. Let's see the battle report:

Isoroku Yamamoto (Archer) vs Catapult (79.5%) = Flawless WIN, 5 collateral
Isoroku Yamamoto (Archer) vs Catapult (79.5%) = WITHDRAW, hit 4 times, 5 collateral
Gallic Warrior 3 vs Catapult (86.4%) = WIN, hit 2 times, 4 collateral
Gallic Warrior 6 vs Catapult (95.1%) = WIN, hit 1 time, 5 collateral
Archer 3 vs Catapult (79.0%) = WITHDRAW, hit 4 times, 4 collateral
Gallic Warrior 6 vs Catapult (85.8%) = WITHDRAW, hit 4 times, 5 collateral
Gallic Warrior 5 vs Catapult (73.1%) = WIN, hit 3 times, 6 collateral
Archer 2 vs Catapult (59.3%) = WIN, hit 4 times, 4 collateral
Gallic Warrior 4 vs Catapult (83.2%) = WIN, hit 2 times, 5 collateral
Axeman 15 vs Catapult (61.0%) = WIN, hit 5 times, 5 collateral
Axeman 4 vs Maceman (31.0%) = LOSS, hit 3 times
Axeman 9 vs Maceman (29.4%) = WIN, hit 4 times
Axeman 10 vs Maceman (31.0%) = LOSS, hit 4 times
Axeman 1 vs Maceman (19.2%) = LOSS, hit 2 times
Axeman 8 vs Maceman (19.2%) = LOSS, hit 3 times
Spearman 4 vs Ballista Elephant (28.5%) = LOSS, hit 3 times
Spearman 1 vs Ballista Elephant (16.3%) = WIN, hit 2 times  
Spearman 2 vs Ballista Elephant (16.3%) = WIN, hit 1 time
Spearman 3 vs Ballista Elephant (16.3%) = LOSS, hit 2 times
Spearman 5 vs Ballista Elephant (45.8%) = LOSS, hit 2 times
Spearman 6 vs Ballista Elephant (45.8%) = LOSS, hit 4 times
Sargon (Gallic Warrior) vs Ballista Elephant (28.8%) = LOSS, hit 2 times
Axeman 3 vs Ballista Elephant (27.7%) = LOSS, hit 2 times
Axeman 14 vs Ballista Elephant (24.1%) = Flawless LOSS


All in all I was very lucky there. Jowy got a GG from the battle born in his capital. This is how it looked after the battle




Now here I was a bit unlucky as the only units that got promotions from that battle were my 2 spearman. Jowy must have activated autopromote and boy did it turn out good for him. He got Combat promotions on every unit. I thought long about attacking him, but decided against it as my odds were just abysmal. I would get way better odds if I stay and defend. In order to increase my odds at defense I suicided my cats:

Catapult Barrage vs Ballista Elephant C1 Medic 1 (12.2%) = LOSS, hit 1 times, 4 collateral
Catapult Barrage vs Ballista Elephant C2 (12.4%) = WITHDRAW, hit 4 times, 3 collateral
Catapult Barrage vs Ballista Elephant C2 (12.7%) = Flawless LOSS, 4 collateral
Catapult vs Ballista Elephant C2 (12.7%) = LOSS, hit 4 times, 5 collateral
Catapult vs Maceman C1 (30.9%) = LOSS, hit 2 times, 4 collateral
Catapult vs Ballista Elephant C1 Medic 1 (47.4%) = LOSS, hit 3 times, 3 collateral




This is the picture after the collateral. I checked and the best odds I got were only 30% from an axe against a wounded maceman (70/100 HP). I moved another archer into the city. Hopefully my better odds divert another attack from Jowy. Another advantage of defending is that if my archer with Medic 2 survives, my units heal faster then his units. Best scenario would be if he retreats back to JuvenileWizards.

[Charriu]

Addendum here are the casualties from the defense:

Jowy:
2 Ballista Elephants
1 Maceman
7 catapults
=
10 units worth 540 hammers

Me:
6 axeman
1 Gallic Swordsman
4 spearman
=
11 units worth 390 hammers

A better hammer trade for me, but in order to defend against the next attack I killed 5 catapults of mine worth 250 hammers.

[Charriu]

T142:

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Thank god, he did not attack again and instead retreated. The catapult 1NW of CommandoPygmies was in range to attack the spearman and got 99.9%. I took the opportunity for some free XP and attacked with it. Unfortunately it didn't get another promo and was hit once. But that's another XP towards my next GG. I then used a chariot 98.7% odds to clean up the wounded spearman and retreat back to the city. The chariot had a flawless win and retreated back into the safety of the city.
Unfortunately I did not have my workers in range to rebuild that road, the are in range for the next turn. My plan right now is the following:

1. Heal this turn, which brings almost all of my units back to full health. Jowy will most likely move into JuvenileWizard, maybe pillage the road he's standing on.
   
2. Next turn I will move my full army with some more reinforcements on to the copper tile, which will get a road rebuilt. This gives me the option to strike Jowys army in the next turn.
   
3. Now Jowy will either retreat back to HillStormGiants, which is the better defensive spot or he will heal in place. Unfortunately I only have 2 catapults with me, more on the way.
   

Hopefully I can force him to retreat again. By the way he send me another white peace offer this turn which I rejected. I also researched Feudalism this turn and upgraded my Archer GG to Longbowman. Lastly you can also see Jowys galley up there, which unloaded the maceman from the north.




That's the dip in power from Jowys attack. Good for me. Shows the other players that I'm still fighting back. Now the only player right now that can break my back is Mjmd. Unfortunately he still does not have any duplicate luxury resources which could be a great way to establish good relations.




The northern situation looks interesting. Jowy is moving forces away towards the southern theatre. I think now or next turn is the best moment to start a dogpile vs Jowy. Therefore I send AT "declare war against Jowy for wine". Hopefully he gets the message that I'm still willing to work with him and that this is a golden opportunity for him.

[Charriu]

Great, Jowy moved directly after me. That means he most likely has moved more forces away from the north, which might move AT to declare on him. If I'm correct then this northern city has one of two of Jowys iron resources

[Charriu]

T143:

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Interesting move by Jowy. He did offer peace again, which I rejected once again. He will be able to reinforce his stack with the 4 maceman to his NE. My plan for the next turn:

• Rebuild that road leading to JuvenileWizards
  
• Move the whole stack into the city.
  
• Within the city all my archers will get better odds once again. He also doesn't have enough catapults to suicide and this time my units are fully healed, so odds should be in my favor especially because most of his units are hurt.
  

The only down side to this plan is that I have to sacrifice 2 workers. The other plan would be to suicide my remaining 2 catapults and attack him. Also note that more catapults are on the way.

AT didn't declare war, but maybe he considers it. Mr. Cairo remains to be passive. Mjmd too, but in this case it's good for me.

[Charriu]

T144:

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Wow, just wow. Jowy retreated again this time towards HillStormGiants. Of course I went in to reconquer JuvenileWizards, which came with a lighthouse and started a galley so that I can get LavaTriton back. The momentum is still there. Now Jowy could still have 2 units on that galley, which is why I positioned my units for maximum protection around the coast. Next move would be to start a road 1E of JuvenileWizard and position my stack there, once again threatening Jowys stack with an attack, but I do believe this time with the hill he will try and defend.

Meanwhile my great spy finds empty cities in Jowys core. Come on AT this is the moment to attack and break Jowy.

[Charriu]

T145:

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Jowy offered me peace for my 20 GPT, which I declined. But I send him back a white peace. Here is my reasoning for peace:

• Jowy finally found a way to stop his retreating by building Walls in HillstormGiants. I can't crack this fortress with my current army.
  
• My great spy sees more and more maceman streaming down south.
  
• To make any more gains I desperately need better units.
  
• I want to consolidate my reconquest and build up economically again
  

I still moved my units forward just to built up a bit more pressure on the peace deal.




Meanwhile on the northern side of the world things are happening. Mr. Cairo finally took to action and conquered one of ATs core cities. I'm pretty sure it's ATs horse city as he no longer has horses. My scout is on the way to see how things are. I thought about joining this war, but my main army needs at least 7 turns to come back to the north, way too much time. If Jowy accepts my peace I could see him attacking AT next, which isn't great, but it's ATs fault alone. Still I do not want AT to fall that quickly and therefore offered him my horse, which I currently don't need. To be honest with Ballista Elephants to the east, Holkans to the north and soon Impis to the north there never was a big reason to go heavily into mounted units.

Also my borders in GoldsmithSkags popped, which is great as the mountains give me a lot of visibility. This was what I had hoped for before the AT attack.

In other diplomatic news I send Mjmd a Corn for Wheat offer which he accepted. I plan to make more deals in the future. I think with Jowy always in my back and pindicator always in Mjmds back we can establish a (fragile) alliance in the future. If Jowy accepts my peace I will send Mjmd an interesting deal in the near future.

[Charriu]

T146 Part 1: The war has ended

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The war against Jowy finally came to an end and not to soon, because as you can see there were more units on the move south. By the way, why can I see those tiles now that I'm at peace. No border pops happened. That's really strange. Let's have a look back at the war, first with casualties:

Jowy:
Spearman: 1
Axeman: 2
Catapults: 7
Chariot: 1
Ballista Elephants: 6
Maceman: 1
=
18 units worth 915 hammers

Me:
Axeman: 9
Gallic Warriors: 2
Archers: 2
Spearman: 7
Worker: 2
Catapults: 5
Galley: 1
=
28 units worth 1140 hammers
Jowy didn't kill all those units. The galley with some units on it was killed by a barb, but I counted it as a casualty of war, as without the war this would not have happened.

All in all not the best trade deal for me, but not totally lopsided. Of course the biggest damage was the economic damage done by the war in loosing 4 cities over the cause the war. Do note that I mostly lost units that are soon outdated and Jowy lost some up to date units.
This war caused me a lot of anxiousness in the first half of the war. The second half was really bizarre, but at the same time very fun. The first half was dominate by me retreating back towards my capital as I had no forces south due to the war with AT in the north. This gave me time to built up and as soon as the northern war ended I could concentrate forces. To be honest when Jowy was almost at the capital I really thought this is the end of me in this PB. Luckily for me Jowy moved really slow, which gave me a lot of time to built up. I think this is because he had mostly 1-movers and no knowledge of my terrain due to the ever closed borders towards him. Another factor is that Jowy never captured absolutely important core cities with the exception of CommandoPygmies

Now the second half could be summarized by quantity vs quality. I had the bigger army, but the best units I could field were Gallic Warriors, Axeman and Co. while Jowys army was smaller but had newer units like Ballista Elephants and Maceman. What made this half really bizarre is that I reconquered 2 cities without me over seriously attacking his stack. In fact the two major battles in the whole war were his successful initial attack oon HillstormGiants and his less successful attack on CommandoPygmies. Because of that the war turned into a kind of chess game with us carefully positioning our stacks and trying to get the upper hand of the other, which was really fun.

What really lifts up my spirits is that I managed to prevail in a 2v1 dogpile. A quick question for all the RB historians: How many players managed to prevail in a war with the following facts:

• Fighting 2 players at once
  
• Fighting 1 player with better promoted units and winning against them.
  
• Fighting 1 player, who fields more advanced units and winning against them, somewhat.
  

No matter how this game ends I enjoyed it and I'm proud of my war accomplishments.

[Charriu]

T146 Part 2: The economic situation after the war

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Let's assess the economic situation next:








To ones surprise I'm down in all major stats. I had to whip my cities almost to the ground and also chop almost every forest. I will provide a more detailed look at every city in the spoiler at the end of this post. The biggest problems right now are:

• I only have 5 workers
  
• All cities suffer major whipping unhappiness
  
• I'm behind in tech
  

I do want to solve most of those problems with a golden age. Remember I still have a Great Spy and I will use him to start the golden age. With 10 turns of peace from Jowy and AT being attacked this is now the best moment to start it. With the golden age I will switch to:

• Hereditary Rule, which thanks to the many units will solve the happiness problem
  
• Vassalage, reduce some unit costs, but also prepare for future battles
  
• Serfdom, I already have enough whipping unhappiness already, serfdom will also help me with the 5 worker problem as those will work faster.
  
• Organized Religion, to get up some important buildings, Markets in AquaticGhoul and FlyingBarbarian, Duns and later Castles in the border cities.
  

Another plus for me is that all cities already have enough tiles to work and I only need to add a few more improvements. I think I can get away with just adding a few more workers for now.

It will also be important to settle two more cities: One by my only iron resource to my east and another SE of ImperialRatmen to add marble and another silver to my resource pool. That silver can be used to establish a trade deal with Mjmd. Speaking of Mjmd: My plan is to offer him the following deal as soon as possible:

• Open borders
  
• I stop trading with pindicator
  
• luxury for luxury
  

It's worth mentioning that even now I'm the only player who has some resource trades with him. He has closed border with pindicator. As already mentioned in a previous post with both our neighbors getting stronger and stronger it will be important to cover each others back.