That's a neat map Commodore made for the Championship game; with no gems though any AI who pops one from a mine will have a significant advantage over the rest of the field.
From the preview video the mirroring of the final map seems to be messed up. Washington has fish and crab resources off the coast at the wheat/stone spot west of his capital (1:27 of the video). For Asoka both of fishing resources are missing (2:37).
(August 11th, 2020, 07:55)Wyatan Wrote: Playoffs Game 3 quandary:
So, Gandhi is the obvious favourite for first to die, especially since I believe he'll actually have no metal: the copper source to his West will actually go to Mehmed, I'm pretty sure of it.
But...
Asoka was 90%+ FTD in the previous game, with < 1% chance of surviving at all, and yet... well.
The Gandhi situation seems to me to be more akin to the Lincoln situation: he is the most likely to die first, but it's a far cry from being as clear cut as the Asoka situation.
Hannibal strikes me as the Montezum of this game.
He's going to be very weak (no room to expand except along the coast, and I bet he'll lose the coastal wonders to Hyuna Capac), and he'll have a ton of border tension with the early game ogre, Gilgamesh.
This is Season 5, where the most likely results are the least likely.
So... Hannibal FTD ?
Damn, I hesitated until the very last moment.
But in the end, I foolishly let reason overtake superstition.
So, if Sullla does alternate histories for that one before I get there (that's some pretty long way off), here are my predictions:
Winner: Gilgamesh 60%, Huyna Capac 30%
Runner-up: Mehmed 50%
FTD: Gandhi 60%, Hannibal 30%
Victory: Cultural 50%, Domination 40%
Well, a seemingly pedestrian game got wacky enough to really secure my interest during the latter portion. Congratulations to Huayna Capac on a truly spectacular case of throwing away a certain win. Still only one championship appearance... That does prove that even the most potent of the AIs in this are still just silly AIs that will do dumb things sometimes.
Gandhi was clearly the most probable choice for First to Die, but the actual result wasn't all that improbable either. Gandhi was clearly going to die at some point barring a miracle, but it didn't have to be first!
Asoka of all leaders is now the only one win both his opening round game and his playoff game (Yes, Gilgamesh has two wins as well, but in his actual opening round game he didn't, so...) I have always been an Asoka fan in this so
Of the championship field, it seems pretty clear that Mehmed will not be winning. He continually underperforms in these games, is the only one of these leaders to never have won a game of AI Survivor, *and* is in an unfavorable starting position between Asoka and Washington. Charlemagne is also unlikely to take home a victory because he's generally not that sort of leader. On the other hand, if he does somehow pull it off and we get Burger King as the first two-time champion then I will be immensely amused.
I could see a victory from any of the others. After his impressive performance in the playoff game, I'm genuinely curious as to how capable Washington will prove here, but if he can get off to a start like he had there, he should be in great shape. Asoka will have some potential peril from religion, especially if the odds hold and he and Burger King found the first two (because we all know how that always happens), so he's going to be on shaky ground. But if he can get in a solid diplomatic situation then I think his chances are good. Gilgamesh is the most likely one here to go on a conquering romp, although I feel like that's not too likely to actually happen in practice (thought that may just be wishful thinking...) and in the Alternate Histories for this map he didn't look so hot. Willem is undoubtedly going to be the contest's favorite, a feast-or-famine leader who doesn't look likely to have others try and force him into a famine. Certainly if nothing goes wrong for him then the old Financial/Alive combo will give him the edge. But how likely is the most likely outcome to happen here?
On the whole, I think I'm quite looking forward to this Championship game. As long as it doesn't turn into a romp by the two Game Three advancees, it should be quite a fun time for me. Also curious to see what Sullla has cooked up for next week...
An idea that occurred to me, that I don't know if it would be likely to happen or not, but figured I'd throw out there?
After this season, as the next Civ Fridays series, maybe Sullla could play against the five (or four if we manage to get a repeat here) AI Survivor champions, in a standard AI Survivor-style map, on Deity difficulty? It would be fun to see if his expertise and probably lack of as many silly decisions could triumph over the AIs' big production advantages, and for all the Civ 4 content that Sullla has out there, there's a noticeable lack of content on playing on Deity difficulty.
IDK, that might not be something that Sullla has any interest in doing. The idea is intriguing to me though.
It's hard to say Gilgamesh isn't deserving of being here after two wins and four kills this season, he's had good games before and some bad luck in the past (his S1 starting spot is so bad it'd never be accepted nowadays). I'm on the train that while Charlemagne is not the 7th best leader in the game, people who think he is a total fraud are underrating him and he's a reasonable leader.
Agreed on both points. I think Creative is an extremely powerful trait, especially in the hands of a leader that is more aggressive or at least willing to declare war at pleased. The AI has a difficult enough time settling and popping borders, so creative helps both on securing the easy pop, but also bullying the other leaders with your settle spots.
I mean, in playoff game 3, Gilgamesh was able to really bully Hannibal just by virture of stealing an early spot next to his capital; and Gandhi (though not creative) was able to hamstring Huyana early with that holy city pressure. Huyana probably wins that game 100% of the time if he grabs that spot first.
(August 15th, 2020, 15:41)Eauxps I. Fourgott Wrote: An idea that occurred to me, that I don't know if it would be likely to happen or not, but figured I'd throw out there?
After this season, as the next Civ Fridays series, maybe Sullla could play against the five (or four if we manage to get a repeat here) AI Survivor champions, in a standard AI Survivor-style map, on Deity difficulty? It would be fun to see if his expertise and probably lack of as many silly decisions could triumph over the AIs' big production advantages, and for all the Civ 4 content that Sullla has out there, there's a noticeable lack of content on playing on Deity difficulty.
IDK, that might not be something that Sullla has any interest in doing. The idea is intriguing to me though.
Maybe on Immortal. Deity is such a completely different game, and to win you basically need perfect conditions and even then that only offers you a chance at winning. The AI just has that much of an insane advantage.
I do support the idea someone threw out of getting all the 'loser' leaders currently sitting on 0 points and toss them into a survivor map together. Let's force one of them to get a win.
Gandhi (though not creative) was able to hamstring Huyana early with that holy city pressure. Huyana probably wins that game 100% of the time if he grabs that spot first.
(August 15th, 2020, 17:23)Eauxps I. Fourgott Wrote:
(August 15th, 2020, 16:33)Borsche Wrote:
Gandhi (though not creative) was able to hamstring Huyana early with that holy city pressure. Huyana probably wins that game 100% of the time if he grabs that spot first.
Not if he pulls off what he pulled off this game
This is actually a great point. Is there any documentation for what makes the AI decide on a victory condition and when to pull the trigger (pull their finger off the trigger as it were). Cultural is clearly the fastest victory condition outside of some of the slaughterfest Dominations we see, but Cultural also brings a huge risk associated with it (not least of which that certain... vulnerable AIs seem enamored with it*) especially when it seems like the AI will often stop going for Cultural for Lord knows what reason.
*And even this is its own point because it may just be that the AIs that like to go for cultural only 'seem' to have this preference just because they build lots of wonders and cultural buildings that pushes them over into the Victory Condition state of X cultural already obtained, X culture per turn, X turns to victory = turn on the culture solider
