WW 46: Wolves Return to Realms Beyond

[scooter]

Scooter is doing a good job of flying under the radar so far, not kicking up much but only focusing on the low hanging fruit after his back and forth with Cyneheard. I guess I understand encouraging people to post, so I'll do the same: share your thoughts on some meatier targets scooter.

So, in general I think the naufragar stuff is just day 1 silliness. I would bet he’s a villager. If I had to bet my whole game right now on one player read, that would be mine. He dove in enthusiastically, and then got really defensive when some trivial accusations came his way. Generally speaking, playing this game as wolf is way harder for a newbie than village, so I would expect a newbie wolf to be pretty reserved and cautious because they have to think about strategy day 1 more than regular townsfolk do. The fact that he was just willing to dive in and then be naively shocked that he got some attention just adds up to a super obvious read to me. I think if he was a wolf, one of his fellow wolves would have been yelling for him to chill privately.


As a result, it makes me a touch skeptical of the players who most enthusiastically piled on him, and more importantly those who have kept the conversation on him. Some of that is obviously just smart people trying to get more information though, so I’m not in a rush to over-conclude. A few of Lewwyn's posts raised my eyebrows for example, but he's since dragged so much info out of people that I've come around on him.


Anyway, I think what’s most important here is to expand the board. Let’s say we lynch one of the names associated with this stuff. Statistically speaking, we're unlikely to hit on a wolf day 1 without a major blunder, so what I want is for our vote to extract as much information as possible. So, what do we learn if we lynch, say, GKC who piled onto Nauf and he turns out to be village? I don't think very much at all, even though I'm a bit suspicious of him. Lynching Nauf provides the most info right now, so I could definitely be talked into it purely on those grounds, but my read of him makes that feel weird and inefficient.


So my vote stays on Thrawn for now, but I also want to hear more from Chevalier who has been similarly quiet. I think for the next ~24 hours we should be using our votes to pressure some folks to step into the limelight, and then we vote for whoever's death would tell us the most.

[El Grillo]

It’s close enough to the end of the workday here that I could read on my phone while staying at my work desk, and of course now that we’re talking I’ll keep refreshing.

You’re welcome to suspect me of course, but I think it’s odder how many vets seemed content to leave their votes on two agreeably suspicious newbies and then go quiet, instead of continuing to push for more discussion. I’m very curious to see if Rowain and Serdoa continue to argue in favor of a naufragar lynch in particular. You Lewwyn seem to be off that case in favor of me now, is that right?

[GeneralKilCavalry]

I suppose if you weren't on naufrager before then you lean with me that he and GKC are more likely victims of our RB meta than actual floundering wolves?

would you be willing to vote to lynch naufragar or GKC, or another player, at present? Please don’t say you have null/town reads on everyone.

Ignore my first two "votes" - I was simply testing out the commands. If you have a gripe with my behavior regarding the nauf vote, that's different.

[El Grillo]

Commodore, are you usually so terse in these games? I would've expected you to have a bit more to say than the four brief statements you've made so far, one random vote in the opening minutes, another quickly joining pindicator on the GKC wagon, a third continuing to push GKC, and then a fluff defense of superdeath.

The second post in particular reads oddly to me:

I'll join you on GeneralKillCavalry, seems very eager to just hop all over the place.

Naufragar is nervous, twitchy, talkative...so about exactly how I'd expect nau to be in his very first WW.

What made naufragar's early Day 1 behavior acceptable but GKC's not? Were you intending to keep your vote on GKC until the deadline? Is that still the case now?

[Lewwyn]

It’s close enough to the end of the workday here that I could read on my phone while staying at my work desk, and of course now that we’re talking I’ll keep refreshing.

You’re welcome to suspect me of course, but I think it’s odder how many vets seemed content to leave their votes on two agreeably suspicious newbies and then go quiet, instead of continuing to push for more discussion. I’m very curious to see if Rowain and Serdoa continue to argue in favor of a naufragar lynch in particular. You Lewwyn seem to be off that case in favor of me now, is that right?

Go quiet is pretty relative. Time zones matter. Serdoa said in our PBEM tech thread that he'd been up for the last 24 hours or whatever and was just about to crash. So I wouldn't hold their current silence against them. As to whether I'm off that case, I'm don't think its fair to say at this point I'm off any cases. But I definitely think you're suspicious and overly calm.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

So, I've made it up to page 11, and now I'm finding posts calling me out for lack of activity (which is absolutely fair, as I posted once today). That makes me a bit nervous, though, so consider this a placeholder post. I'm active, I'm reading, and I'll give you a real post in a bit once I finish these last two pages. 

In response to pindicator's question about experience, I've been playing forum Mafia (or Werewolf) off and on since 2003, but it's been more than a decade since I last played, except for a brief reddit game that ended poorly for us townies. I've played lots of One Night Ultimate, though. In fact, my box is within arm's reach now! 

Anyway, back soon with THOUGHTS.

[El Grillo]

Overly calm, you say? The day is young yet, and I see no reason to get all excited. While we're continuing to talk though, I'd like to clarify one thing with you Lewwyn.

Perhaps you were just being hyperbolic, but:

To me, it seems obvious that nauf and GKC are suffering first game jitters.  THAT DOES NOT MEAN I THINK THEY ARE TOWN.  

I agree with this whole heartedly, the only reason I voted for nauf was to draw in El Grillo and get a better read on him since he put his first vote on him.

"The only reason you voted for naufragar" comes across to me that you don't suspect him at all otherwise. Are you as willing as scooter to read naufragar as town then?

[Lewwyn]

Overly calm, you say? The day is young yet, and I see no reason to get all excited. While we're continuing to talk though, I'd like to clarify one thing with you Lewwyn.

Perhaps you were just being hyperbolic, but:

To me, it seems obvious that nauf and GKC are suffering first game jitters.  THAT DOES NOT MEAN I THINK THEY ARE TOWN.  

I agree with this whole heartedly, the only reason I voted for nauf was to draw in El Grillo and get a better read on him since he put his first vote on him.

"The only reason you voted for naufragar" comes across to me that you don't suspect him at all otherwise. Are you as willing as scooter to read naufragar as town then?

No. You can go back and look: I noted his post was bad, but I didn't vote for him immediately. I wasn't sure about nauf but I felt my vote there while calling you out was a good use of my vote. Nauf could be town or wolf, I lean towards town right now, but nauf wouldn't be the first newbie wolf to get tripped up on RB. To clear him completely would be foolish.

And yes, overly calm. Some of your questions are a bit obvious and pedantic. The language feels distant and removed. In particular the questions are reflexive and overly polite.

[Lewwyn]

Being late I thought there would be some catching to do but this is much much more than what I expected... I thought that the game would involve about 3-4 checks/posts per 24h (in comparison, in the game I played you got to speak exactly once per game day). I'll PM brick to ask of there is someone on the waiting list as they'll participate and enjoy the game more than I would, and if not I'll continue but even at best it won't be nearly to the same level as the rest of you guys. Once every few hours is the maximum I can do and if there are a few new pages to read every time it would be more of a chore than not... And on day 6 you dissect everything that was said previously?!?!

Realms Beyond Werewolf bro. We did this so many times everybody got burned out and its taken a few years to recover. But now, can't you feel that energy? Yo I'm alive. I live, I die, I live again! WITNESS ME!

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Okay, I've read everything, let me give my impressions. 

• Bobchillingworth
  Bob was pretty quiet most of the day. He initially dropped a vote for scooter, then went after Lewwyn for being overly aggressive towards naufragar. Other than that back and forth I don't have any notes on him. Accordingly, I don't have much of a read. 
• Serdoa
  Very active in the early pages, then presumably went to work or to bed. He was an early supporter of the nauf bandwagon, accused nauf of having poor logic, and stayed pretty heavily on him through the day. I'd also expect a werewolf to be more enthusiastic about participating in the game early than a villager, so his early and enthusiastic is weak (emphasis: weak) evidence of scum. Right now, on the whole I would place him in my "vaguely scum" category.
• Gaspar
  Early defender of naufragar, active all through the thread. He gets strong scum reads from superdeath, and has posted lots of lengthy, in my opinion decently-reasoned posts. He's also clashed a bit with pindicator in the more recent pages. My initial impression is of a dedicated townie (and, regrettably, one probably high on the werewolf's hit list if he stays so mouthy). 
• Lewwyn
  Pretty active, but not a lot of real substance, I feel like. He was an early participant, lots of joking posts, and was an early joiner of the nauf bandwagon. Later, he swapped to Cyneheard, finding a long Cyneheard post scummy. He did respond to pindicator's recent posts in more detail, though. On the whole, I don't find his reasoning as persuasive as his opponent Gaspar's, and accordingly I have weak scum vibes from him.
• naufragar
  Nauf was an early participant in the thread. He did come across as a bit defensive to me, but I also think those could just be rookie nerves. Hard to get a definitive read one way or the other. He was defensive about not voting for Serdoa with both Rowain and Serdoa, and said this was his first game. Since then I haven't heard from him, so my notes are dry. RIght now I'm in agreement with those arguing Nauf is probably a nervous newbie than a clueless werewolf, so weak town vibes. 
• superdeath
  Superdeath showed up on page 8 to drop a music video and vote serdoa without explanation, then rapidly switching to Rowain and GKC "for questioning my motives" and then "because Commodore is persuasive." Later, despite GKC not posting in the intervening time, says he's MORE convinced GKC is scum. Right now, superdeath is either being superdeath, or he's a werewolf. If not for the superdeath factor, I would have extremely strong scum vibes from him. Actually, right now [vote=superdeath][/vote] is my scummiest suspect, I think. 
• Commodore
  Initially poked Serdoa a bit about hte self vote, and defended nauf. He then joined the GKC bandwagon, saying that GKC had clammed up under pressure. He also made in my opinion a pretty killer burn on Superdeath's random vote for him, but has been mostly quiet himself since. I have very, very weak scum vibes, but nothing definite on him yet. Coin flip here. 
• Chevalier Mal Fet
  I noticed the thread during my lunch break, when I made my first post. Through the afternoon and evening I was at work - I'm a teacher, so work doesn't end at 3:00, but I have student meetings, grading, and lesson prep. I also was in a fantasy mock draft from 6:30 - 9:30 my time - I had no idea the bastard would take 3 hours! It was my first one - and then I headed over here with dinner to comb through the now-12 page thread. Hence, my general quietness. I have taken notes on everyone here, which I'm mostly sharing here. 
• El Grillo
  Early and frequent participant in the thread. He pushed a day one bandwagon on nauf, but claimed it was mostly for information. Has steadily swapped attention, to Cyneheard (for an early vote and then silence), myself, Charriu, and thrawn (for lack of activity), and Commodore (for being too terse). Has posted to my mind good information on the meta, though, and general strategy. On the whole, I have pro-town vibes - he's roughly a mirror to Commodore in my mind. 
• scooter
  Started with a joke about the old games. Could be a content-free scumpost, but he's been a solid defender of naufragar for being a newbie, while keeping the heat on for more information. Has called out thrawn for lack of activity, and is suspicious of the nauf bandwagon. On the whole, I think he uses good, helpful, pro-town reasoning, so I peg him about the same as El Grillo. 
• Cyneheard
  Voted scooter to start, but was indeed quiet - he said he had to work, which, hey, who am I to judge? He did say Rowain and pindicator were too quick to bandwagon, and voted pindicator. I have very little read on Cyne at the moment, not enough activity. 
• Charriu
  Like me, was busy at the start. Latecomer to the thread. He trusted the vets pushing for GKC, and when Rowain called him out on being selective about vets, he defended himself calmly. He gives the impression of a family guy doing hsi best to participate in the game with the time he has, and seems good-spirited so far. I have no real read, maybe vaguely pro-town, maybe just a quiet scum, but either way we can hold off on lynching him for now. 
• thrawn
  I'll be honest, my read of thrawn from the PBEM19 set up is that if he were scum, he'd be all over this thread. He is very chatty over there, in the game set up and in his own thread - witness the sheer volume of posts he has in the organizing thread. He also is free with his PMs. If he were a werewolf, my belief is that he'd be unable to contain himself and he'd be an early, prominent poster. The silence I accordingly read as a modest pro-town signal from him, weird as that may be, because I"m not sure he's even opened the thread.
• Rowain
  Early participant in the thread, very active until he claimed he was going to bed. He was chatty at first, but as information came out he was aggressive in questioning naufragar, joining the bandwagon, and also hitting a bit at Charriu, Gaspar, and Serdoa. He has kept a history of votes and switching, which others have updated, which is good info for the town. Vaguely pro-town signal, but really, really easy for werewolves to fake, so a weak signal at best. I kind of have loose scum vibes from the aggression, but they're weak still. 
• AdrienIer
  Voted Lewwyn, and asked Serdoa why he didn't vote Lewwyn as well. Then my notes stop - he's vanished. Too little information for a strong read, weak pro-scum signals from the voting but otherwise silence. Could be a werewolf flying under the radar. Could be a townie that went to bed. No vibe either way yet. 
• GeneralKilCavalry
  Early, active participant. At first he was aggressive and rapidly swapping his suspicions around - Cyneheard and naufragar, mostly. Also had a hiccup with editting. When he was faced with pressure, he swapped to a defensive mode, mostly defending himself without reversing the attacks. I read this is a modest pro-town signal. He responded to pindicator's long post in detail at every point, though. Could be an overly defensive werewolf, could be a newbie. He's playing the newbie card hard, asking about terms like "bus" and "scum," which I guess are sort of specialized jargon. Not sure if it's sincere or if he's doing the old "just a helpless beginner" gag.  Weak town vibes at the moment. 
• pindicator
  Pin asked for new players, and was a joiner of the GKC bandwagon. He had a bit of a hiatus, but has a long post with detailed questions for each player. Right now, I don't have a strong read on pin one way or the other. Anyway, I think we do have a scum faction active right now, but I'm not sure which camp it is (although you can see which way my suspicions are leaning). I feel safest voting for superdeath because he hits all my "scum" alarm bells, but I honestly am allowing for the possibility that that's just superdeath being superdeath. -shrug- who's to say, really?