September 2nd, 2020, 12:52
Posts: 3,045
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Alright, feel like I'm just sitting on a pointless vote at the moment. Haven't really changed my mind on the initial impression on Adrien's game, but then again the content is about the level I'd expect. Would like some larger overview for other notable players to get a better read from you.
As for the actual kill, I'd dust superdeath at this moment, as I think he would actually give more input as a villager. While the current play can be a nice newbie cover for a wolf which also doesn't leave any traces in case he is checked out. Feels a bit easy but..
On Commodore, I feel a bit better that the main selling point is not just the wolf-duo theory, so there is actually something in Gaspar's play that raised the suspicion. Interestingly Pindicator did jump on this connection and votes Lewwyn. He continued to explain his own through process behind this theory ( here) which made me feel better about him, not just sheeping a read that I felt far fetched.
But back on Gaspar, don't really get wolf vibes from Gaspar's play so far so I'm questioning Commodore's motive for the push for now. Would be my pick #2 atm.
I did like the remark on Serdoa focusing too much on naufragar. Seconded from here.
Liked Chevalier's list ( #122) and the followup ( #127). Sure, the list contains some repeating of the occured events (some could claim it filler), but feels more like town trying to contribute.
Liked scooter's longer post ( #111) on the game stage and and he seems to follow that gameplan. Can't wait for the real voting to begin though 
Gaspar takes the protect newbies and suspect the vets who should know better - stance early (you all know that, a classic wolf play). But he doesn't seem to be super focused on it by his actions, which is a postive. I think his reasons for voting both Cyneheard and Pind were understandable (and not related to newbie trains). I think the large list of names gives an impression of not focusing on anyone specific. But yes, need to hear more focused reads from him for the players listed.
September 2nd, 2020, 13:16
Posts: 15,367
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Joined: Apr 2007
(September 2nd, 2020, 11:58)Commodore Wrote: (September 2nd, 2020, 11:02)El Grillo Wrote: Rowain, why would I vote for Lewwyn? Just because I disagree with him on my own innocence? I like his activity level and there are enough other players who seem content to sit on the sidelines for Day 1 without much engagement. I want to hear more from them and will vote accordingly.
I want to call this out as a really good post, and one Serdoa/Naufragar should take to heart. El Grillo, you seem like a Wrong Villager. Just don't vote for a townie and you can even make it to Right Villager.
Cyneheard, Bob, Gaspar, SD all need to check in today. And Scooter, please check in with substance.
I've been a bit busy with my morning  . I did detail some thoughts last night that you may or may not have missed. I'd go so far as to say it was more substantial than anything you've written in this thread. It feels like you want to vote for me because I've got a vote on you, but you're afraid it'll look bad. Anyway, good news is that I do have some more thoughts.
Generally speaking, I don't have any strong wolf-reads. There are a couple people that have made me wonder a bit, but I don't feel strongly about anyone yet. I find it easier to make town-leaning reads day 1. I've softened a touch on my Naufragar = town stance, but mostly I just think he's just making rookie town mistakes because he has nobody to coach him. I'm OK with keeping my vote on you for the moment, but here's some other names that at least interest me for good or bad reasons.
Lewwyn - reads town to me. I think he's jumped at quite a few shadows that seem dubious to me, but I also think he's done the best at getting people to talk, and that's good for us. If he's wolf, he's playing very much on the edge. I know these are all common Lewwyn traits, but it feels especially noteworthy here.
Bobchillingworth - If I had to take a blind stab at a werewolf, it would be him. In a world where the likelihood of someone at random is like ~70-75% village, I view him as closer to 50/50. He's said virtually nothing all game, and he's a vet who knows the value of getting people chatty on Day 1. I could most easily be talked into voting for him.
El Grillo - I get town vibes from him. This is one of Lewwyn's pet things that I don't buy at all. I think his posts have been pretty clear and reasonable, and he's left a good breadcrumb trail in case he does something later that casts him in a different light. I'm good with keeping him around.
Gaspar - This one is odd for me, because a post of his last night bothered me, but I brushed it off as being in line with his playstyle. That said, here we are 16ish hours later, and it's still on my mind, so here it is with the opening intro snipped:
(September 1st, 2020, 20:31)Gaspar Wrote: To me, it seems obvious that nauf and GKC are suffering first game jitters. THAT DOES NOT MEAN I THINK THEY ARE TOWN. But it does mean that I'm not going to hang them for early game slip-ups. I then personally find the long-timers who are parsing them as though they know what they're doing and those that are jumping on their first mistake really suspicious. I get the value in putting some heat on them to see how they'll react, but given that they're feeling heat before anyone's even posted, what are you really hoping to accomplish by bussing them - do we think the new guys are suddenly going to freak out, declare he's a wolf and out the rest of his pack? More likely they're going to either a. clam up which is not useful or b. out a town role if they are town and have one, which sure as hell only helps the red team. None of that is useful to me, I'm trying to find scum and honestly, I do admit to a bias of wanting to give the new guys a day or so to play before we lynch them if there are other, better targets.
That makes the people who know the stuff I've stated above and still persist on busses or scummy follow votes on those guys suspicious to me. Now its day one - the people here that I know I'm going to suspect based on tone and faulty reasoning more than just votes, but the votes are there and the lazy reasoning is there too.
So as stated before, right now the guys who hit my scumdar hardest are Serdoa, Rowain, Lewwyn, Cyneheard and Commodore. Pindcator's post that garnered my vote is super suspect. Scooter has behaved funky like the first five but I didn't get as strong a vibe from him. I don't have a strong town feel from anybody yet.
This post felt weird to me when I first read it, and after sleeping on it, it feels worse and not better. This post boiled down to - leave all newbies alone, and I find every veteran who has said anything remotely of note at the time he wrote this to be suspicious. That seems like a weird tack to take. I generally agree with him on his reading of how new players are likely to feel, but... I think that's all the more reason to grill them a bit. Day 1 is a crapshoot unless you can pressure someone into a mistake. First time wolves are the best candidates for that if you can somehow find one. Maybe this is purely a playstyle thing, but I'm curious if anyone else felt this was off.
Nobody else is really sticking out for good or bad reasons. I agree with whoever it was that described AdrienIer's game so far as "a bit tidy," but I don't have much else on him than that.
September 2nd, 2020, 13:33
Posts: 7,602
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Joined: Jan 2018
So back in one of my last posts I wrote that I find these three players untrustworthy:
GKC,
naufragar and
Superdeath
So far nothing has changed that initial gut feeling. In case of naufragar, we have this:
(September 2nd, 2020, 11:36)Lewwyn Wrote: (September 2nd, 2020, 11:29)Commodore Wrote: (September 2nd, 2020, 11:19)naufragar Wrote: My vote’s parked, and it would take a lot to budge, like if I was needed for a GKC lynch. I hope people will let me contribute without throwing my vote onto people I’m finding less suspicious than Serdoa.
Uh, so nothing you've said has really raised my hackles but this...this is bad. Please be willing to listen to other arguments; I'm certainly willing to listen to yours. There is a very high likelihood in a 17 player game that there are more than 1 wolf.
I agree with this. It all stood out to me.
Nauf, don't declare you are going park your vote for the day that's an easy wolf play to avoid being in on a mislynch and not having to be a part of discussions for the rest of the day. Very wolfy.
Which definitely tripped me off and brought naufragar back in the full untrustworthy zone for me for the exact things that Lewwyn said.
GKC on the other hand is the only player out of those three who managed to lower my suspicion towards him. He still has the newb bonus and I would say he's defending himself reasonable enough for a newb.
Then we have Superdeath. I still find all of his posts very dubious. The fact that he didn't really answer questions and all. I know he usually plays his PBs in a few hours, so I want to increase the pressure on him and see what he has to say. So Superdeath it is.
I also want to mention that Commodore is making my untrustworthy list, first with his initial short posts; defending Superdeath as well as the somewhat sudden tone change. In addition El Grillo summarized it a lot better then I can:
(September 2nd, 2020, 10:55)El Grillo Wrote: Commodore, your latest post comes across poorly for me. Long posts with mostly quotes and little new material aren't worth much unless the points being synthesized are conclusive.
Summarizing, you claim that:
1. Lewwyn and Gaspar's interactions are suspicious
2. superdeath isn't worth a lynch today
3. scooter's vote on you is weak
My responses to those points:
1. I can't speak to all the player-meta comments, but I also haven't been liking some of Gaspar's posts. Listing 7 players as scummy with reasoning for only a few of them is very unhelpful. I'd like for him to narrow that down substantially today. Half that would be more realistic for a 17-player game.
2. I disagree, if superdeath continues to try and hide behind his personal brand of style instead of posting more constructively, then everyone else can just throw up their hands and call him null, neither of which is helping town. Commodore, if you think that superdeath would be an easy mislynch at any time, isn't that the kind of player scum wants in endgame? As for waiting to see his play evolve, how about in the next 24 hours?
3. That's a pretty soft deflection considering at that point you hadn't contributed much, aside from the more blatant act that is ignoring my post and vote on you entirely. That level of deflection rises to scummy behavior in my perspective.
I'm keeping my vote on you.
September 2nd, 2020, 13:42
Posts: 8,022
Threads: 37
Joined: Jan 2006
I'm at work so I can't really quote post so just a few assorted thoughts...
I know there are some who dislike my stance on newbies but I don't care. I've had this fight with Serdoa and others before and we see things differently and thats fine. I think the biggest thing is its attacking the low hanging fruit and its super easy to get them again later.
I think the people who have pointed out me being suspicious of many of the vets is scummy are making a disingenuous argument. Of course I don't think all of those people are scum. I'm not gonna figure it all out on day one. But I listed the people who I felt suspicious about one way or another so far. If that's literally half the players, well, so what? Its day one. With another half day in, those opinions have changed and broadened, etc.
If the day were ending now, I'd vote Commodore. But its not so im not locked into the top 2. I would like to know what people think about Bobchillingworth. Hes contributed little and I've seen him play a wolf game like this before.
I've got some dirt on my shoulder, can you brush it off for me?
September 2nd, 2020, 13:55
Posts: 17,976
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That's what I was looking for, Scooter. Ideally with a change in vote, but can't have everything.
Looking at the weirdly-static vote right now...
(September 2nd, 2020, 11:49)Rowain Wrote: Tally:
SD (4): CMF,AdrienIer,Lewwyn,naufragar
Commodore (3): ElGrillo,Rowain,scooter
GKC (2): Charriu, SD
Pindi (2): Cyneheard,Gaspar
naufragar (2): GKC,Serdoa
Lewwyn (2): Bob, pindi
AdrienIer (1): Meiz
Gaspar (1): Commodore
not voted (0): Superdeath- Easy mislynch as noted. But his going silent under pressure is suspicious a bit...he's got a job that walls him away from the forums pretty strictly, if I'm remembering right, but he's going to have to talk or he wins first lynch by default. The votes on him are CMF (time-strapped), Adrien (kind of low-key game), Lewwyn (loving life), and Naufragar (tunneled all to hell on Serdoa?)
Commodore- The case against me is, if I understand, terseness (ElGrillo), Being my Werewolf Nemesis (Rowain), and...convenience plus no better option? (Scooter) I get a town, blank, neutral vibe from my respective interlocutors so please explain the case better to me.
GKC- Only two remaining accusers are AWOL. He's not vibing scum at the moment to me, and I expect them to hop off when they come back.
Pindicator- Lurker (Cyneheard) and Guy Who I Find Suspicious and Is Also Lurking (Gaspar). I think the case is some variation of "feels bad, man", who knows where they'll go when they grace us with their presence again.
Naufragar- Serdoa's got his vendetta thing, and GKC didn't like the Naufragar attacks? I get the case but I don't see a strong lean.
Lewwyn- Pindicator says he sees what I see but like everyone prefers not to vote with me.  Bob's stuff is stale at this point because, again, ghosted. I could join in on this although I feel like Lewwyn has generated enough chaff at this point my targeting is confused.
Adrien- Meiz notes he's being smooth. He is.
September 2nd, 2020, 13:56
Posts: 12,335
Threads: 46
Joined: Jan 2011
History:
Tally:
SD (5): CMF, AdrienIer, Lewwyn, naufragar, Charriu
Commodore (3): ElGrillo, Rowain, scooter
naufragar (2): GKC, Serdoa
Lewwyn (2): Bob, pindi
GKC (1): SD
Pindi (1): Cyneheard
AdrienIer (1): Meiz
Gaspar (1): Commodore
not voted (0):
“The wind went mute and the trees in the forest stood still. It was time for the last tale.”
September 2nd, 2020, 14:00
Posts: 17,976
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Hell of a crosspost. Okay, I'm not going to ding someone for tunneling and tilt at windmills myself. Sure Gaspar, Bobchillingsworth needs to talk a bit more.
September 2nd, 2020, 14:02
Posts: 15,367
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Lewwyn, your tally is missing Gaspar's recent Bob vote. I'm going to join it too for the reasons stated in my last post. Bobchillingworth
September 2nd, 2020, 14:02
Posts: 15,367
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Joined: Apr 2007
Crossposted with Commodore.
September 2nd, 2020, 14:03
Posts: 17,976
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Joined: May 2011
I'll need to hear more from Adrein, too.
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