WW 46: Wolves Return to Realms Beyond

[scooter]

I get the sense that my prodding at "quiet" people has contributed to pushing us down a not so great path. I don't think piling on people for low activity level alone is a really great idea. My votes on some people who were doing that were more of a prod to get those people to share their thoughts when they had time. I voted for thrawn early but also poked a couple people like Chevalier. He hasn't posted a lot, but when he has, he's pretty clearly explained what he thinks of certain players. What I really want from players it to establish a breadcrumb trail, so that once we have more game info, we can work backwards a bit.


So Bob, Cyneheard, and Superdeath are popular lynch targets right now, and there are some compelling reasons for them. Rather than those folks defending themselves breathlessly, I'd like to hear who they think is a better target than themselves and why. Also, who do they think leans town and why? Does their logic make sense? If they provide a lot of reasoned opinions, that maybe makes them worth keeping around because those opinions may be recontextualized by the upcoming deaths.


I don't really care how often you post. Just give me serious opinions when you do, and ignore the type of person to be aghast that you disappeared for a couple hours having a life. If you're going to post once or twice a day, make them good ones. I prefer quality > quantity in this kind of game anyway. My vote is still on Bob because when he showed up, he didn't make much sense and hasn't really provided a convincing alternative. My vote is still very much live though, so I'm open to a few others.

[superdeath]

So Bob, Cyneheard, and Superdeath are popular lynch targets right now, and there are some compelling reasons for them. Rather than those folks defending themselves breathlessly, I'd like to hear who they think is a better target than themselves and why. Also, who do they think leans town and why? Does their logic make sense? If they provide a lot of reasoned opinions, that maybe makes them worth keeping around because those opinions may be recontextualized by the upcoming deaths.

I believe Serdoa to be a town villager or equivalent with no powers. My reasoning is simple. He voted for himself. What else is a no power townie going to do other than try and have a ton of fun with stuff like voting for yourself/ect.

Commodore gives me Cop/detective vibes. Trying to direct people away from non-threats, and more towards actual conversations.

Bob as i previously mentioned has to be at best, an Arsonist/equivalent and at worst a wolf based entirely on my sc2 mafia experience.

Thats all i can read right now. Food is about done.

[GeneralKilCavalry]

So Bob, Cyneheard, and Superdeath are popular lynch targets right now, and there are some compelling reasons for them. Rather than those folks defending themselves breathlessly, I'd like to hear who they think is a better target than themselves and why. Also, who do they think leans town and why? Does their logic make sense? If they provide a lot of reasoned opinions, that maybe makes them worth keeping around because those opinions may be recontextualized by the upcoming deaths.

I believe Serdoa to be a town villager or equivalent with no powers. My reasoning is simple. He voted for himself. What else is a no power townie going to do other than try and have a ton of fun with stuff like voting for yourself/ect.

Commodore gives me Cop/detective vibes. Trying to direct people away from non-threats, and more towards actual conversations.

Bob as i previously mentioned has to be at best, an Arsonist/equivalent and at worst a wolf based entirely on my sc2 mafia experience.

Thats all i can read right now. Food is about done.

I don't want you lynched this night.

Bobchillingworth

[scooter]

I think I'll be in here again prior to the deadline, but I'm not 100% sure. So I'll state more clearly where I'm at with the big names being thrown around.


Bob - My vote is on him, and I feel pretty decent about it. I don't read his "defensiveness" as meaning much either way, but I do care about the fact that his defense made not much sense, and he hasn't provided any sort of alternative. I get the strongest wolf vibes from him of anyone, so I'm going to default to that.


Cyneheard - I could be talked into him. He seemed kind of exasperated with just a little bit of pressure. I'm not sure that's a tell either way though. That said, his frustration with the game makes me wonder if we should just lynch him. My main concern is if we lynch him and he's village, what did we really learn? I've been hoping I'd hear more opinions about other players from him, because I know him decently well and thought I could get a good read on him. I don't really have one yet though unfortunately.


Gaspar - I pointed him out earlier. He's loosely on my radar still, but I don't want to lynch him. If he's town, I think he's an asset, and statistically speaking he's likely to be town. I think the upside of keeping him around outweighs the risks - at least for the first few days. There are risks, though, because he's an excellent wolf if he drew that.


Superdeath - Personally I am pretty skeptical he's a wolf, but I could sort of be talked into him because I think we would learn a lot. Some of the focus on him has been weird to me. Maybe people have picked up on things that are over my head, and he's a wolf and that's a big win. If they're wrong though, that gives me some pretty clear Day 2 targets because I think he's the kind of easy mark wolves might like. (As I'm previewing this post, I do see I'm crossposting with him, but I'm going to wrap and submit this post first.)


Nauf/GKC - I have a hard time not grouping these two. I don't particularly get wolf vibes from them, but there is some undeniable potential info to be gained by lynching one of them. If I had to pick one, maybe GKC. But I think there are better options for sure.



I don't particularly want to lynch anyone not on this list. I'll listen to any cases for someone else, though. I should be around again before the deadline to checkin and adjust my vote if needed.

[El Grillo]

Upon a re-read of this middle third of Day 1, I don't feel great about the Bob wagon, mostly because he took so long to respond to his early accusers that it became convenient to join, like how pindicator and Adrien did (even with the caveat that he says he realizes it's not the best vote). Between that and the noise SD created with his arrival, it's been easy to call them out as making anti-town plays and blend in.

That said, Bob's defense seems to be him implying that he doesn't care for Day 1 and he'll contribute more later, which I disagree with on principle. If he insists that what's truly important is analyzing how the Day 1 lynch wagon formed, then I would expect him to be trying a lot harder to not be lynched Day 1. So per scooter's question, which I agree with: Bob, who do you find as a better target than yourself? There's enough time left in the day to change the outcome here.

[Bobchillingworth]

For the second post:
I feel like I'm just repeating myself. SD was being defensive about his lack of contributions. So I put my vote on him because that's an awful attitude, either a scum tell or an awful villager approach to the game. I was expecting him to actually go somewhere after that, but thought he needed a prod. The prod got him defensive about the entire game concept - so to better see where it went I did take what he said at face value - so yes it can seem apologetic because that's what he's trying to sell. I've not seen anything from him since.

1) He's being a wolf who just doesn't want to contribute anything. In which case I'm not helping things by trying to break it down for him, but let's be real, someone else likely would be.
2) He's being an earnest confused villager - I understand the confusion, and he needs some guidance in how to explain himself and get out of this. But he's not trying to get himself out of it.

I'm also just feeling overwhelmed by the game, definitely regretting signing up. I need my evenings to be a break from the stress of everything that is, well, everything, and this isn't it.

Feel like as a newbie that hasnt played a game like this ( with actual chatting and not just basically a voting cycle and night cycle ) i fall much more in line with your #2 point. If i was a wolf/mafia wouldnt my fellow wolves ect be rather keen to coach me and not continue to let me make a fool outta myself?

No that's totally not true. Wolves don't want weakness in their pack, and getting rid of a wolf shows their "townyness". It's a very common trick.

Incorrect. SD isn't asking if scum would refuse to vote for other scum, but rather if they wouldn't try to at least keep each other alive past Day 1 via coordinating in their own special subforum, which of course they would. Busing a wolf on Day 1 is usually dumb, because nailing one generally requires luck rather than brilliant deductions on the town's part, so even if a wolf leads the bandwagon on a fellow wolf early it's not likely to appear to actual villagers to be based on anything resembling a brilliant deduction. Every wolf lost sets back victory by X more days as well, and obviously the game only gets more dangerous for scum as things get closer to the wire.

A much more sensible strategy is for the pack to identify their weakest member after at least a day has passed, and if the situation isn't salvageable deliberately have one or two of their fellows structure a case against them, for real deep cover.

Let's assume I'm scum, since I'm probably gone tomorrow- who would get credit for eliminating me? The case against me seems to be based on a combination of A: Bob doesn't post when he's at work, and isn't hyperactive during his free time in the evenings, B: Bob won't change his vote when provided with random alternative targets, and C: Bob's pointing out a common wolf strategy "doesn't make sense". That's weak shit, and nobody should get special points for Day 1 luck, nor credit for being vote #5+ on someone who there was absolutely no risk in eliminating (as I haven't claimed a power role, nor had the opportunity to demonstrate my credibility). Which is to say that the rest of the pack would be sacrificing a warm body and extending the game by however many days for what should be minimal gain.

It'd be better to have one wolf vote for me as a hedge, and the rest try to gin up interest in one or more other targets. Then they could reassess on Day 2, with the night kill as misdirection to potentially change the subject during the day.

[pindicator]

El Grillo, I do not care for this Bob train either. The one time I recall we nabbed him as a day 1 wolf it was something Lewwyn caught early and stayed on him often. On that game I remember arguing against the Bob lynch- I don't feel I have a good read on him is what I mean by including that. I asked Lewwyn for his take on that wagon, but I expected something more substantial from Lewwyn in response. Not just jumping in for fun, which was the vibe I got off the post.

What I do feel has hit on my scumdar is the timing of some of AdrienIer's votes. Id rather have heard him answer my question first, but I need to go to bed soon and he hasn't come back yet.

His vote to Bob

Now while SD is new and may not know the RB meta, Bob certainly should know. It may only be that he's too busy right now, but it's not like his earlier posts were amazing.

It's not the best vote but I need to sleep and will reread once or twice in the morning.

Now I'm interested in your thoughts on Cyneheard.

Was right after extolling to superdeath to look for all the little clues here

Superdeath the idea is that in theory we have approximately 4/17 chances of lynching wolves today. It's super low. The only thing we have to help us and raise our odds is that wolves are only pretending to look for wolves, and by doing so usually make forced arguments or conveniently follow on a bandwagon they don't care for. Those are signs (not the only ones too) that we're all looking for (or for the wolves among us) pretending to look for. If you're not doing that it doesn't help the village do better than those 4/17 odds, and if we let you do it it incentivises wolves not to participate either giving them less chances of appearing unnatural in their posts.
It's a lot of pressure and a lot of hit and miss, but RB has a higher rate of wolf lynch on D1 than those 4/17 (or whatever the odds are on day 1 of a particular game) by forcing everyone to hunt for any microscopic clue. So we need you to play that game of hit and miss, or the village's chances get much lower.

But that is not what AdrienIer has done! Instead he has gone from easy low- content pick of superdeath to easy low-content pick of Bob. What first caught my attention is that both came in quick response to other people being put up. It was right after Rowain pushed Commodore and Comm was getting some attention that he voted superdeath. And now with Cyneheard getting attention he's suddenly on the Bob wagon despite it not being a dig for every crumb type of vote. But regardless of that or whether that has anything to do with anything, I don't like that he is buddying up to one low content person, taking him under his wing, and then jumping right over to another while saying we have to put in the effort to find tells. The actions don't match the words.

[Bobchillingworth]

And to overemphasize the point, OF COURSE experienced scum will coach new members in their private subforum. It'd be mindless self-sabotage not to. Not only that, but if they're going to bus someone, they'd damn well set it up properly- have the sacrifice do something just subtle and scummy enough for a fellow wolf to jump in to build a real case against them from. Why would they not take advantage of the resource which defines their faction, the ability to coordinate?


Also Lewwyn (and others) pleading for me to point them in another direction because they're totally desperate for any excuse to vote for someone else is obviously scummy; just flimsy cover for when I pop village, that they were reluctant all along and would never have done it were I not so darn obstinate. At least pretend to have the courage of your convictions, sheesh.

[GeneralKilCavalry]

I still most suspect nauf out of everyone here. My vote for you bob is because killing SD would give absolutely no information, so if it's between you two, I'm expressing preference. I'd absolutely like the nauf-bandwagon to start off again because it best exposes the nature his interactions with serdoa and rowain.

[Bobchillingworth]

My vote for you bob is because killing SD would give absolutely no information, so if it's between you two, I'm expressing preference.

That's a perfectly legitimate reason. You're still wrong, and the logic could apply to most of the other players, but it's vastly better than "Bob didn't pick an alternative for me other than Lewwyn, and I have no agency!"