WW 46: Wolves Return to Realms Beyond

[Meiz]

Cyneheard

I think there's very little substance behind his reads so far. Mentions how it's hard to get a read with many players being quiet. I disagree, there's plenty of content in the thread and some players being quiet should not stop making alternative reads. Feels more like an excuse.

His list of players (#146 and #276) seems mostly fluff to me. Yes it's hard to make early reads, but I don't get the feeling he's actually trying to dig out more info from these players either.

"Obviously willing to go back to pind, whose early wagoning felt off to me and I haven't seen much from him since."
Pindicator does have more content than the early wagon. Don't leave this at "haven't seen much since" which doesn't really get you anywhere.

"We've got a few people who really haven't said much today. And Bob's barely added anything this evening except a too-earnest "lynch me if you will" that we've all noticed."
This doesn't stop you from giving reads from active players. Repeating myself, but you feel content at saying the game doesn't have enough to make concrete reads yet. It has.

"Gaspar's tunneled on me a bit, and when he has he's basically just said "you're suspicious because you are" and that's it, hard for me to be objective."
So make a detailed read on Gaspar. More town or wolf?

[Meiz]

naufragar is going ham on the Serdoa & GKC wolf pairing (#161 and #263) and I personally like his enthusiasm on it. To me it feels more like a town who thinks he's onto something major, than a wolf crafting a lynch candidate.

AdrienIer, I need a larger overview of players from you as your posts have been very short and pinpointed so far. Not a bad thing in general, but these sort of posts are also easy for a wolf and currently make it very hard to get a read on you. You don't need to list all players, but the notable ones and any points how you feel about, however small those would be.

[Meiz]

As for Bob, kind of hanging himself here with the "you'll see when I turn up town" -talks and general annoyance levels. In my experience this is more commonly a frustrated town than a wolf going for a gambit. Quite interesting town metaread on me due to thrawn dropping out. I consider this another case of "would this be a wolf gambit", leaning veeery slightly towards not being the case. 

Also @Bob I would rather lynch Cyneheard, but you're making that harder... What do you think of Cyneheard's posts?

I think Cyne's posts are very similar to what I'd write for day one if compelled to produce a few more than what I already have.  The idea 48 hours of joke votes, spam, and random finger pointing on day one are going to catch a wolf in the act is preposterous based on a decade of experience on this forum, and you know it.  It's highly unlikely for the scum to stumble when there's zero votes to defend or night actions to gather intelligence from.  What's important is determining how the inevitable bandwagon on Day 1's lynch target formed- if the victim is village, who pushed hard for it (and why), and who jumped on easy win for the scum.  If the victim is scum, then who tried to save them, or bandwagoned when the victim was clearly doomed anyway for cheap village cred.  Obviously also critical is reading the night action(s), particularly why certain players stood out enough to the scum to whack, though generally there won't be sufficient intel to help the village until at least a couple nights in.  


Again, you know all this.  Constantly pointing at random people for no little-to-no reason isn't aberrant RB Day One behavior, but it is common scum play, because it works; it puts whoever does it in the driver's seat, keeps them off the defense, gives them an enormous amount of posts which are also a pain to sort through for anyone wanting to analyze their content, and convinces villagers who have trouble tracking the game on their own that it's important to keep them around.  It doesn't actually help the village much at all.

I urge you to take another look at Cyneheards's posts with my accusation post in mind. Do you still think there's nothing unusual in his play so far?

I have to say, your idea for analyzing the day 1 train wagons would not work if people would not take hard stances already on day 1. Don't you think Lewwyn's play so far fits well with his earlier town game as well?

[Charriu]

I'm going through the posts again to make up my mind for my final vote and had to stop at one player in particular: Commodore. I know I said in the past that my distrust towards you has increased a bit. So would you kindly answer the following questions?

1. Back at #168 you made some suggestions towards Lewwyn and Gaspar working together. As someone who does not know all the backstory of the players. Would explain at what exactly you are suggesting there?

2. You defended a lot of players in the past mostly the newbs? Has anything changed in your opinions about them?

3. I don't exactly get what you mean about pindicator at #208?

4. Same post #208. Anything new to say about Adrien?

Thanks.

[Rowain]

And to overemphasize the point, OF COURSE experienced scum will coach new members in their private subforum.  It'd be mindless self-sabotage not to.  Not only that, but if they're going to bus someone, they'd damn well set it up properly- have the sacrifice do something just subtle and scummy enough for a fellow wolf to jump in to build a real case against them from.  Why would they not take advantage of the resource which defines their faction, the ability to coordinate?  


Also Lewwyn (and others) pleading for me to point them in another direction because they're totally desperate for any excuse to vote for someone else is obviously scummy; just flimsy cover for when I pop village, that they were reluctant all along and would never have done it were I not so darn obstinate.  At least pretend to have the courage of your convictions, sheesh.

Scum don't coach much because during hte game . Perhaps in the early game but once  player has some posts and set his tone you can't coach him not without beeing obvious.

Ask for your reads so there are breadcrumbs once you are dead and your alignement known. Not talking and not providing your reasons/your viewes of players is a absolute bad town behaviour. So if your are town as you claim please make one post not about how smart you are and how dumb everybody else is but about whom you view as town/scum and why.

The only player I'm fairly sure is village is Meiz, not because of anything he's written, but for the obnoxiously meta reason that he inherited thrawn's role, and I can't believe thrawn would have dropped if he was scum and had an entire team and subforum to help him along.

One could argue Playing wolf is far more stressing and timeconsuming than villager or the fact that Brick brought a refreshment (nearly mandatory if dropout is wolf). But we should judge Meiz for his play and not for meta-reasons.

@ SD: 4 wolf 13 villager is right ratio for a game with few/minor powerroles. 5th mislynch loses.
If there a several powerroles that can prevent death/sniff out wolves than 5-12 might be necessary.

General comment. Speculating if scum would this or that/ bus one of theirs or not on day 1 is a very slippery slope. We had a game here where a wolf was cought with all the other wolves voting for him. And those remaining wolves happily helped the village to lynch all those villagers who did not vote for said wolf. The wolves won easily.
Remember 1 surviving wolf is enough for them to win.

[Rowain]

Quote shortened to the interesting bit.

But that is not what AdrienIer has done! Instead he has gone from easy low- content pick of superdeath to easy low-content pick of Bob. What first caught my attention is that both came in quick response to other people being put up. It was right after Rowain pushed Commodore and Comm was getting some attention that he voted superdeath. And now with Cyneheard getting attention he's suddenly on the Bob wagon despite it not being a dig for every crumb type of vote. But regardless of that or whether that has anything to do with anything, I don't like that he is buddying up to one low content person, taking him under his wing, and then jumping right over to another while saying we have to put in the effort to find tells. The actions don't match the words.

So do you thing both Commodore and Cyneheard are Adriens wolf-buddies?

Any way lets push Cyneheard ab bit again

[Meiz]

Quote shortened to the interesting bit.

But that is not what AdrienIer has done! Instead he has gone from easy low- content pick of superdeath to easy low-content pick of Bob. What first caught my attention is that both came in quick response to other people being put up. It was right after Rowain pushed Commodore and Comm was getting some attention that he voted superdeath. And now with Cyneheard getting attention he's suddenly on the Bob wagon despite it not being a dig for every crumb type of vote. But regardless of that or whether that has anything to do with anything, I don't like that he is buddying up to one low content person, taking him under his wing, and then jumping right over to another while saying we have to put in the effort to find tells. The actions don't match the words.

So do you thing both Commodore and Cyneheard are Adriens wolf-buddies?

Funnily, I did draw a line between Pind and Cyneheard for Pindicators timing to vote AdrienIer   The feeling is enhanced with him mentioning Cyneheard multiple times, asking others opinions of him. I recall him townreading Cyneheard earlygame. Anyways, I do find it funny how he suspects Adrien for the same connection, perhaps being self aware of his own rescue vote 

[AdrienIer]

El Grillo, I do not care for this Bob train either. The one time I recall we nabbed him as a day 1 wolf it was something Lewwyn caught early and stayed on him often.  On that game I remember arguing against the Bob lynch- I don't feel I have a good read on him is what I mean by including that. I asked Lewwyn for his take on that wagon, but I expected something more substantial from Lewwyn in response. Not just jumping in for fun, which was the vibe I got off the post.

What I do feel has hit on my scumdar is the timing of some of AdrienIer's votes. Id rather have heard him answer my question first, but I need to go to bed soon and he hasn't come back yet.

His vote to Bob

Now while SD is new and may not know the RB meta, Bob certainly should know. It may only be that he's too busy right now, but it's not like his earlier posts were amazing.

It's not the best vote but I need to sleep and will reread once or twice in the morning.

Now I'm interested in your thoughts on Cyneheard.

Was right after extolling to superdeath to look for all the little clues here

Superdeath the idea is that in theory we have approximately 4/17 chances of lynching wolves today. It's super low. The only thing we have to help us and raise our odds is that wolves are only pretending to look for wolves, and by doing so usually make forced arguments or conveniently follow on a bandwagon they don't care for. Those are signs (not the only ones too) that we're all looking for (or for the wolves among us) pretending to look for. If you're not doing that it doesn't help the village do better than those 4/17 odds, and if we let you do it it incentivises wolves not to participate either giving them less chances of appearing unnatural in their posts.
It's a lot of pressure and a lot of hit and miss, but RB has a higher rate of wolf lynch on D1 than those 4/17 (or whatever the odds are on day 1 of a particular game) by forcing everyone to hunt for any microscopic clue. So we need you to play that game of hit and miss, or the village's chances get much lower.

But that is not what AdrienIer has done! Instead he has gone from easy low- content pick of superdeath to easy low-content pick of Bob. What first caught my attention is that both came in quick response to other people being put up. It was right after Rowain pushed Commodore and Comm was getting some attention that he voted superdeath. And now with Cyneheard getting attention he's suddenly on the Bob wagon despite it not being a dig for every crumb type of vote. But regardless of that or whether that has anything to do with anything, I don't like that he is buddying up to one low content person, taking him under his wing, and then jumping right over to another while saying we have to put in the effort to find tells. The actions don't match the words.

You ask a question after I explicitly say I'm off to bed and you follow up with a vote for me after 4 hours...
Am I doing a low energy day 1 ? Sure I am, I have stuff to do these days and my classes start tomorrow. Yesterday I came home at midnight, turned on my computer to read this thread, answered SD, decided to get off him and went for someone who hadn't been satisfactory at the time knowing full well that it wasn't a well thought out vote. I don't have much time or energy for more than a low energy D1.

Now I'm off in 20mn, which is not enough for a good reread and a good ironed out vote. I'll see what I can do though.

[Serdoa]

Ok, I still have not re-read everything (yes, I slept instead) there are several posts I want to take a look at:

I have no read on superdeath.  I'm not sure superdeath has a read on superdeath.

I agree with you. I don't want to give newbies a pass as you do, but SDs posts feel honest. That does not mean he can't be a wolf though, just that he is genuinely overwhelmed with the posts and tone-reading.

======================================================================================

Pind tells Serdoa that Serdoa misread him here. So Pindi wasn’t attacking you but Serdoa found Pind’s whole post to be scummy. Serdoa finds it scummy because Pind doesn’t attack you while laying out “in the first part very well why his [i.e. GKC’s] behaviour reeks of wolfness.”

Here you seem to understand what I was going at.

Serdoa has read into Pind’s post an attack. He thinks your behavior reeks of wolfness so much that Pind not mentioning it is suspicious, but then he doesn’t go after you at all.

And just in the next sentence, you completely forget what you wrote yourself before: I was questioning pindicator, because he seemed to give good reasons for a GKC-vote just to turn around and take it back with "oh, you are new".

I don't even get what you mean with "he thinks ... that pind not mentioning  [GKCs behaviour] is suspicious", when that is exactly what he did and what I called out.

That is why I don't get off you naufragar. You do this all the time: Misinterpreting what someone wrote, putting in your own words in their mouths and making it appear as if there is something to go on, when it really is just you twisting it. 

======================================================================================

... but my impression of Lewwyn hasn't improved.  I think he's joining easy bandwagons and spamming the thread with gobs of low-quality filler, banter, and analysis that boils down to "I think X is a wolf!  What say you???"  

I really don't agree with this. Lewwyn has helped drive discussion. I do wonder about his tone, but not the contents. To me this feels that you thought attack is the best defense and for your attack you looked quickly through posts to find something to latch on.

Cyneheard, Bob, Gaspar, SD all need to check in today. And Scooter, please check in with substance.

Clearly unlike some others in this game, I have a job where I work for a living, and I don't have access to RB while I'm there.  I got home an hour ago, and jumping into this thread somehow wasn't my first priority.  I did warn that this would be the case prior to roles being assigned; lynch me if you will, but I'll caution the village to pay attention to who eagerly jumped on bandwagon which was both dumb and carried no risk.  

See nauf, THAT is a personal attack. Directly towards something outside this game. Besides that, I don't like it Bob, because you were not simply attacked for not being around, but because there is little to no content. One can have little time, but if he also does not use that productively it does seem wolfish.

CMF did defend Bob a little, asking if he does not do the same thing Bob does, because they all have not that much time. I don't agree with this, even though I understand where he is coming from. But there is a difference in quality. CMF does try to contribute with the time he has. Bob does not.

Looking at all posts by Bob:

#82: Joke
#85: Vote Lewwyn, reason: Lew attacks nauf and SD
#89: Joke (?)
#130: Telling thrawn it is ok to not read everything and also that it is ok if thrawn gets lynched.
#131: Vote Lewwyn, reason: there are vote tags (wants to try them?) -> Joke
#264: His "comeback-post". Attack on Lewwyn (see above). Else just complaints about others voting him because he is not active (see above: not contributing =! active)
#270: More complaints, that we play wrong? Else: Cyneheards play is similar to what he would do on D1
#289: Long post, that just discusses game theory.
#291: More game-theory
#293: Commenting on GKC voting him, stating it is wrong but a legitimate reason. That is an odd post in itself tbh, as GKC states as reason to vote Bob (in the quoted post at least) that killing SD would gain no information. Bob seemed upset about everything, but GKCs reasoning is ok?

I actually had not concentrated on Bob (no shit) and I still think naufragars play warrants scrutiny. But honestly: What is that? 6/10 posts are not contributing anything to the game at all but are jokes or game theory. 3/10 are votes / attacks on Lewwyn, but without much content at all. And lastly that GKC post that I find odd as explained above.

BobChillingworth

[Serdoa]

History:

Serdoa votes Serdoa
Adrien votes Lewwyn
Commodore votes Serdoa
ElGrillo vote naufr
pindi votes Rowain
naufr votes Pindi
Cyneheard votes scooter
GKC votes Commodore
Rowain votes Lewwyn
Gaspar votes Rowain
Lewwyn votes Serdoa
GKC switches from Commodore to Cyneheard
Scooter votes Cyneheard
Rowain switches from Lewwyn to naufr
GKC switches from Cyneheard to naufr
Serdoa switches from Serdoa to naufr
Lewwyn switches from Serdoa to naufr
Pindi switches from Rowain to GKC
Commodore switches from Serdoa to GKC
ElGrillo switches from naufr to Cyneheard
Charriu votes for GKC
Cyneheard switches from scooter to pindi
SD votes for Serdoa
Gaspar switches from Rowain to Cyneheard
SD switches from Serdoa to Rowain
Bob votes Scooter
SD switches from Rowain to GKC
Bob switches from scooter to Lewwyn
scooter switches from Cyneheard to thrawn
Pindi switches from GKC to scooter
Gaspar switches from Cyneheard to pindi
Lewwyn switches from naufr to El Grillo
El Grillo switches from Cyneheard to Commodore
CMF votes SD
Serdoa switches from naufr to SD
Rowain switches from naufr to Commodore
AdrienIer switches from Lewwyn to SD
naufr switches from pindi to Serdoa
scooter votes Commodore
Meiz votes AdrienIer
Commodore switches from GKC to Gaspar
Lewwyn switches from El Grillo to SD
Serdoa switches from SD to naufragar
Pindi switches from scooter to Lewwyn
naufragar switches from Serdoa to SD
Charriu switches from GKC to SD
Gaspar switches from pindi to Bob
Commodore switches from Gaspar to Bob
Scooter switches from Commodore to Bob
El Grillo switches from Commodore to Bob
pindicator switches from Lewwyn to Bob
Lewwyn switches from superdeath to Bob
Cyneheard switches from pindicator to superdeath
Lewwyn switches from Bob to Cyneheard
AdrienIer switches from superdeath to Bob
Lewwyn switches from Cyneheard to Bob
Gaspar swithes from Bob to Cyneheard
superdeath switche from GKC to Bob
GKC switches from naufragar to Bob
Meiz switches from AdirenIer to Cyneheard
Rowain switches from Commodore to Cyneheard
Serdoa switches from naufragar to Bob

Tally:
Bobchillingworth (9): Commodore, scooter, El Grillo, pindicator, AdrienIer, Lewwyn, superdeath, GeneralKilCavalry, Serdoa
superdeath (4): Chevalier Mal Fet, naufragar, Charriu, Cyneheard
Cyneheard (3): Gaspar, Meiz, Rowain
Lewwyn (1): Bob


Please check if everything is correct.